If Plummer were available at a reasonable cost for next year, would you sign him?

[ajcardfan]

Is Jake's QB rating that high? I would have thought that Griese would have held that distinction after the season he only had something like 4 picks and 20 TDs and was uncannily accurate. (and they let him go)

Brian Greise, believe it or not, is number 12 on the top 20 passer ratings in NFL history. He's right behind Dan Marino. Neil Lomax is #20.

Here's the current list, as of Sunday:

http://profootballhof.com/history/release.jsp?release_id=1264

 

[Cheesebeef]

Jake Plummer pads his stats against the worst teams in the NFL and struggles against teams that have .500 or better records. Last year - with the most firepower ever - he went 2-2 against teams over .500 with a disasterous performance in the playoffs. This year - he's gone 1-4, leading his team to a whopping 6 points in the first loss, 10 points while throwing 2 picks in the second loss, 3 picks in the third loss and FOUR picks in fourth loss.

Lucky for him the Dolphins are up next for him to continue to pad his stats - to bad none of those crappy ass teams will be in the playoffs.

I'll give Jake this much - he's better than he was here - but he's also surrounded with VERY GOOD recievers, a never ending stable of running backs, a great O-line and a very good defense - no crap he's winning games - only someone as inept as the QB's on this team wouldn't be - but if he was as great as Lex would have you believe - he'd be the reason they were beating the good teams instead of proving what all of us already know - he ain't upper echelon and just because you have a nice passer rating(which coincidentally Lex used to completely see as baseless when Plummer was awful) don't mean you're the man. The cream always rises to the top and against bad teams - Plummer's the cream - but against the good - he's just the residue left at the bottom of the cup.

 

[Russ Smith]

Russ-

You point out the fact that Tark's pick/attempt ratio went from one every 20 attempts, to one every 24 attempts, over the final 10 years of his career. That's still worse than Jakes ratio of one pick per 25 attempts, and Jake, to be fair, gets another 10 years to improve his ratio, for YOUR comparison to be valid, that's why comparing each players first 8 years is the only fair way to compare.

Rules changes are far less impactful on a qb's numbers, than the overwhelming advantage a qb had playing with the same players and coaches year, after year, after year, in the days before free agency.

.

I missed the part where you said first 8 years, I was quoting career numbers.

Tarkenton's last 3 years were pretty bad for picks. Completely disagree about impact of rules changes, look at this year Peyton has a career high of 33 TD's in 571 attempts and suddenly this year has 44 in 385 attempts. You think a difference that dramatic is caused by continuity of the team, or a pretty serious rule change that his OC is taking advantage of? More how a rule is being called than change I guess to be accurate.

The rule change in 77 was huge, offense jumped dramatically as a result, league wide, mainly passing offense.

The problem with your comparison is you're comparing a guy playing in a pass dominated era to a guy who played in a different era. If you compare Jake to his contemporaries and Tarkenton to HIS contemporaries you'll see a different conclusion. When Fran played Qb's called their own plays, which was why it was so uncommong for a rookie QB to play well, hell even play at all, yet Tarkenton started from day 1.

Today it's unheard of. Hell the pick Jake threw on the goalline last Sunday(in the endzone really) even he has admitted the play was a runplay with an option to audible to a pass if the WR had single coverage. Jake audibled, threw the ball short, into double coverage, and it got picked. Jake pissed off a lot of Bronco fans this week when asked about it in essence saying "I don't care about INT's I'm going to keep taking chances and making plays and trying to win". note that's a paraphrase I don't have the exact quote but it's a hot topic on the Broncosfreak board right now.


"I was going to say that a running play was called & JP changed it to a fade, but HolyDiver beat me to it. Confirmed on Sunday night shows out of Denver that spoke to Plummer after the game. I think he takes his "gun slinger" type attitude a little to far. He said he see's no problem with Int's? That's to risque for the responsibility of the entire team. It was a real bummer to watch. "

That was in response to someone pointing out Jake saying he didn't think INT's were a big deal.

I don't for a minute think they release him, unless Shanahan isn't the GM next year.

 

[Russ Smith]

Is Jake's QB rating that high? I would have thought that Griese would have held that distinction after the season he only had something like 4 picks and 20 TDs and was uncannily accurate. (and they let him go)

Rating over 100 that year, I believe his 4 year Bronco rating was about 85, jake is about 87 right now and I have read the same comment Lex made, highest rated Bronco QB in history.

It's no coincidence so many QB's are having career years this year since the illegal contact stuff came in. Griese has a 101.5 passer rating this year despite playing much of the year without Jurevicius and Galloway due to injury. he's resurrected his career. I think he's a decent stopgap I wouldn't even mind us getting him short term, but I strongly believe someone is going to throw big money at guys like him and Brees, and then when the NFL adjusts to the illegal contact rules, they're going to discover neither guy is NEARLY as good as they look this year.

It's not coincidental so many QB"s are throwing so many TD passes this year, that's why I complained so much about McCOwn, records are being shattered left and right and he wasn't throwing TD passes at all.

 

[Russ Smith]

Jake Plummer pads his stats against the worst teams in the NFL and struggles against teams that have .500 or better records. Last year - with the most firepower ever - he went 2-2 against teams over .500 with a disasterous performance in the playoffs. This year - he's gone 1-4, leading his team to a whopping 6 points in the first loss, 10 points while throwing 2 picks in the second loss, 3 picks in the third loss and FOUR picks in fourth loss.

Lucky for him the Dolphins are up next for him to continue to pad his stats - to bad none of those crappy ass teams will be in the playoffs.

I'll give Jake this much - he's better than he was here - but he's also surrounded with VERY GOOD recievers, a never ending stable of running backs, a great O-line and a very good defense - no crap he's winning games - only someone as inept as the QB's on this team wouldn't be - but if he was as great as Lex would have you believe - he'd be the reason they were beating the good teams instead of proving what all of us already know - he ain't upper echelon and just because you have a nice passer rating(which coincidentally Lex used to completely see as baseless when Plummer was awful) don't mean you're the man. The cream always rises to the top and against bad teams - Plummer's the cream - but against the good - he's just the residue left at the bottom of the cup.

Miami's defense is actually quite good, my bet is Shanahan will get the lead and put Jake in his back pocket after last week.

I think Denver's OL is excellent at run blocking but they're really not that good as pass blockers. Jake has only been sacked 9 times because Jake is good at avoiding sacks, their tackles are horrible at pass blocking the entire design of their pass offense is get Jake out of the pocket(where he struggles) and move Jake so the Tackles don't get him killed.

What's funny is how all of a sudden Denver fans are noticing that the reason their vaunted defense doesn't have better numbers is really all the turnovers from Jake resulting in short fields. I keep seeing threads where someone complains about the defense and then further down will get beaten down with well if you take away all the interceptions we allowed only X points and we look a lot better don't we?


That's one good thing about McCOwn as mediocre as he was, he wasn't turning the ball over and killing our defense with short fields the way King and Navarre did.

 

[Pariah]

Griese

I think he's a decent stopgap I wouldn't even mind us getting him short term,

You and I have had this discussion before, but I'll reiterate it here--I would LOVE for us to get Griese this off-season. It would alleviate the pressure to draft a QB in a year when there really aren't that many good ones and allow us to maybe draft one next year and have him sit a season.

I think Griese would be fantastic with Boldin and Fitz on the short- and mid-range passes. Sign him to a two or three year deal!

 

[Lex]

Russ-

Tark retired after 78, so once again I fail to see how a rule change in 77 affected his 18 year career numbers.

Trust me, the Vikings were a run dominated team in the old days. Look at the difference in attempts between Tark/Plummer, Plummer has taken MANY more chances to get picked over his first 8 years, yet only 10 more picks.

You and Beef like to bring up the losses the donkeys have this year, and blame them on Jake. Jake didn't fumble in field goal range after the team drove down the field on the last drive of the game, or get a field goal blocked after they drove the length of the field on the last drive of THAT game. Go ahead and blame Jake for the loss last week, but don't blame 4 picks on him in that game either. He's 16-7 (what a struggle) as a donkey, 1 for 1 in playoff appearances, and has done it with different players.

 

[Russ Smith]

You and I have had this discussion before, but I'll reiterate it here--I would LOVE for us to get Griese this off-season. It would alliviate the pressure to draft a QB in a year when there really aren't that many good ones and allow us to maybe draft one next year and have him sit a season.

I think Griese would be fantastic with Boldin and Fitz on the short- and mid-range passes. Sign him to a two or three year deal!

The thing is of course Green wants a big arm vertical QB and Griese doesn't have the arm, but we don't have the speed at WR for that anyways.

I agree short term he'd be OK, I don't think he's a great QB but he does some things quite well and if you still draft a young QB and groom him it could be a very good move.

 

[Skkorpion]

This is all very simple. The Broncos will not make the playoffs this year and Shanahan may be fired because of it. Even if he's not fired, there's no way Plummer gets his $6 mill bonus option picked up if he's not even in the playoffs.

So Plummer will have been let go by two teams and his only NFL future will be as a backup.

Assume for a moment, Denver backs into the playoffs as a wild card and must go on the road to play. If Plummer plays as badly as he did in Indy last year or as badly as he has played on the road this year, Denver loses and Shanahan will still be winless in playoff games since Elway retired.

So, again, Shanahan gets fired, or if not, Jake is released.

The ONLY way Plummer MIGHT get his option exercised is by making the playoffs and winning at least one game in those playoffs.

 

[Pariah]

The ONLY way Plummer MIGHT get his option exercised is by making the playoffs and winning at least one game in those playoffs.

And, the ONLY way Shannahan isn't in Denver next year is if he quits (a very distinct possibility). Bollen won't fire him...not this year.

 

[Rivercard]

So Plummer will have been let go by two teams and his only NFL future will be as a backup.

No way. Jake, while frustratingly inconsistent, is still one of the better QB's in the league. There are many extremely mediocre QB's starting in the league right now. Plummer will start somewhere if not in Denver.

 

[Pariah]

No way. Jake, while frustratingly inconsistent, is still one of the better QB's in the league.

No way is Jake "one of the better" QBs in the NFL. Off the top of my head, here's the QBs that are better:
Brady, Pennington, Manning, Leftwich, McNair, Brees, McNabb, Favre, Culpepper, Vick, Delholmme, Bulger...maybe Hasselbeck, Carr, Kitna, and Greise, too (although he's probably in the same group as those last few). He's average to slightly above average when you take into account his propensity to give the ball to the opposing team in such grand style.

There are many extremely mediocre QB's starting in the league right now. Plummer will start somewhere if not in Denver.

This I agree with.

 

[Lex]

Plummer is currently 3rd in the AFC/ 6th in the entire NFL in passing yards, just ahead of Brett Favre.

Plummer is currently 2nd in the AFC/ 4th in the entire NFL in TD passes, just ahead of Brett Favre.

Yeah the donkeys lost a bad one in the playoffs last year to Indy, that was two weeks after the donkeys KILLED Indy in the regular season.

It's tough to "back in" to the playoffs, when until last week, they were in full control of thier division, and are currently THE wild card team in the AFC.

 

[Russ Smith]

Russ-

Tark retired after 78, so once again I fail to see how a rule change in 77 affected his 18 year career numbers.

Trust me, the Vikings were a run dominated team in the old days. Look at the difference in attempts between Tark/Plummer, Plummer has taken MANY more chances to get picked over his first 8 years, yet only 10 more picks.

You and Beef like to bring up the losses the donkeys have this year, and blame them on Jake. Jake didn't fumble in field goal range after the team drove down the field on the last drive of the game, or get a field goal blocked after they drove the length of the field on the last drive of THAT game. Go ahead and blame Jake for the loss last week, but don't blame 4 picks on him in that game either. He's 16-7 (what a struggle) as a donkey, 1 for 1 in playoff appearances, and has done it with different players.

You missed my point, which was that the rules changed that made it dramatically easier to throw the ball, took place at the end of Tark's career so he didn't get to take advantage of them. It's no coincidence that the link AJ gave us on passer rating has precisely TWO QB's who didn't play the bulk of their career from 1980 on, Staubach and Otto Graham. If Tarkenton had come along 10 years later his numbers would have been a lot better throwing the ball.

or do you think it's just that all the really good QB's in history played after 1980?

Pass attempts don't disagree people ran more, that's why the NFL changed the rules to make passing easier. They also played only 14 games back then which held down total attempts but the primary difference in passing numbers before 1977 and after is pretty obvious, they changed the rules. One of the stated reasons for the rule change was to reduce injuries which they felt occurred more often on running downs, not sure if that's true or not but that's what the article I read said about the 77 rule change.

The WCO played a big part too but guess why Walsh implemented it in 1979, he had no running backs(Earl Cooper the starter) and he wanted to take advantage of the new rules and use short passing in lieu of running the ball.

If Tarkenton came out of college in 1996 he'd have spent his first 8 years in a WCO somewhere.

The fact is I don't consider Tarkenton to have been a great QB, that's why I said his HOF status is largely based on longevity. He played in a completely different era than Jake comparing their stats is just impossible.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Russ-

Tark retired after 78, so once again I fail to see how a rule change in 77 affected his 18 year career numbers.

Trust me, the Vikings were a run dominated team in the old days. Look at the difference in attempts between Tark/Plummer, Plummer has taken MANY more chances to get picked over his first 8 years, yet only 10 more picks.

You and Beef like to bring up the losses the donkeys have this year, and blame them on Jake. Jake didn't fumble in field goal range after the team drove down the field on the last drive of the game, or get a field goal blocked after they drove the length of the field on the last drive of THAT game. Go ahead and blame Jake for the loss last week, but don't blame 4 picks on him in that game either. He's 16-7 (what a struggle) as a donkey, 1 for 1 in playoff appearances, and has done it with different players.

uh - Lex - he's actually 0-1 in playoff appearances - and beating ateam in the rgeular season is nice and all - but the playoffs are what matters. And any game where your offense scores 6 points is a reflection on the QB - plain and simple. He's beaten bad teams - looked BAD against Good teams and there's really no disputing that.

 

[AzCards21]

uh - Lex - he's actually 0-1 in playoff appearances - and beating ateam in the rgeular season is nice and all - but the playoffs are what matters. And any game where your offense scores 6 points is a reflection on the QB - plain and simple. He's beaten bad teams - looked BAD against Good teams and there's really no disputing that.

He's 1-2 actually.

I just hope I live long enough to see the day a Plummer thread dies a painful death in less than one page.

 

[Pariah]

He's 1-2 actually.

I just hope I live long enough to see the day a Plummer thread dies a painful death in less than one page.

How can he be 1-2 as a Bronco? They went to the playoffs last year and were beat in the first round by Indy, right? Last year was Jake's first as a Bronco.

He is 1-2 lifetime, though.

 

[Lex]

Russ-

I realize that there were 14 game seasons, however, Plummer and Tark will have the same number of games played in 8 years, once this season is over.

Tark was pretty good. NINE Pro Bowls.

www.pro-football-reference.com/players/TarkFr00

 

[AzCards21]

How can he be 1-2 as a Bronco? They went to the playoffs last year and were beat in the first round by Indy, right? Last year was Jake's first as a Bronco.

He is 1-2 lifetime, though.

Ooops, I thought they were talking lifetime. Plummer threads make my mind go numb. My bad.

 

[Russ Smith]

Plummer is currently 3rd in the AFC/ 6th in the entire NFL in passing yards, just ahead of Brett Favre.

Plummer is currently 2nd in the AFC/ 4th in the entire NFL in TD passes, just ahead of Brett Favre.

Yeah the donkeys lost a bad one in the playoffs last year to Indy, that was two weeks after the donkeys KILLED Indy in the regular season.

It's tough to "back in" to the playoffs, when until last week, they were in full control of thier division, and are currently THE wild card team in the AFC.

actually they're not in the playoffs if the season ends today. They are tied with Baltimore for the last wildcard spot but Baltimore at 5-4 has a better conference record than Denver at 4-4.

Pittsburgh, New England, San Diego, Indy, and the Jets are all ahead of Denver.

Plummer is tied with Favre for 4th at 22 TD passes.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Plummer threads make my mind go numb. My bad.

funny - I think they make Lex's right hand do the same thing.

 

[Rivercard]

No way is Jake "one of the better" QBs in the NFL. Off the top of my head, here's the QBs that are better:
Brady, Pennington, Manning, Leftwich, McNair, Brees, McNabb, Favre, Culpepper, Vick, Delholmme, Bulger...maybe Hasselbeck, Carr, Kitna, and Greise, too (although he's probably in the same group as those last few).

I'm not convinced Griese, Bulger, Hasselbeck and Carr are consistently better than Plummer. Still, your list places Jake in the top half of the NFL, which by definition is one of the better QB's in the league.

 

[Lex]

Uh, Beef-

Jake is 1 for 1 in playoff appearances with Denver. (that means he's had one chance to make the playoffs, and he did make the playoffs.)

If I would have said 1 for 1 in playoff wins ...you'd finally be right.

 

[Russ Smith]

Russ-

I realize that there were 14 game seasons, however, Plummer and Tark will have the same number of games played in 8 years, once this season is over.

Tark was pretty good. NINE Pro Bowls.

www.pro-football-reference.com/players/TarkFr00

Again different Era, less teams, far less emphasis on throwing the ball.
I saw him in the mid to late 70's, his teams had great defenses, and Chuck Foreman I really think he was a good QB, on a very good team, who could never win a superbowl.

As for his passing stats compared to Jake, if you really want to do a comparison don't forget to factor in that he played his ENTIRE career on a team where weather DRAMATICALLY impacted passing stats. Minnesota didn't play in a dome they played outdoors where every season they had games in bad weather at home, not all but plenty of them. WIth the Giants he played in a stadium notorious for wind. Jake played 6 years in great weather before going off to Denver.

It's just an impossible comparison and since I don't think Fran was all that great, if you want to compare Jake to him that's fine with me.

 

[Lex]

Whats really funny here ...

Is the only comparison I originally used between Plummer and Tark, was that they each left a team for awhile, then returned, if Plummer came back.

The blind hatred for Plummer on this board did the rest.

I attended at least one game a year at Metropolitan Stadium in Minneapolis for many years in the 60's and 70's.