Is Paul Goldschmidt past his prime?

[Ronin]

Goldschmidt’s offensive revival is no surprise to Lovullo and staff
PHOENIX — Arizona Diamondbacks’ first baseman Paul Goldschmidt was named NL Player of the Week after hitting .640 from the plate with a .690 OBP and slugging 1.440 with 16 hits, including six doubles, one triple and four home runs, 11 RBI and a 2.130 OPS in 25 at-bats over the last seven days.

This was the second time in his career that Goldschmidt has received the award. It came during his longest offensive slump as a Major League player.


Goldschmidt broke out of a 48-game slump, which saw him hit .198/.320/.355 with five home runs, 13 RBI and 34 hits in 172 at-bats.

http://arizonasports.com/story/1557...-revival-is-no-surprise-to-lovullo-and-staff/

 

[DWKB]

What is indisputable is that an Average Goldy (not AA level) would have meant another 6-8 wins for the Dbacks in May. Lot of ground to make up.

Hahaha, that's VERY disputable Jon.

 

[Dback Jon]

13 games lost by 1 or 2 runs. Most of them the Dbacks scored 0 or 1 run.

I stand by my analysis


Plus when Goldy hits everybody else does better

 

[DWKB]

13 games lost by 1 or 2 runs. Most of them the Dbacks scored 0 or 1 run.

I stand by my analysis


Plus when Goldy hits everybody else does better

"Analysis" huh?

The best WAR (Wins Above Replacement) last year was Judge at 8.2. That means he was around 8 wins better than a replacement players over a whole season.

5/19, 5/23, 5/27, and 5/30 break your analysis in the negative (Goldy hit and we didn't win)

Why would you even get into an analytical argument with me? You're not that kind of fan.

 

[Dback Jon]

"Analysis" huh?

The best WAR (Wins Above Replacement) last year was Judge at 8.2. That means he was around 8 wins better than a replacement players over a whole season.

5/19, 5/23, 5/27, and 5/30 break your analysis in the negative (Goldy hit and we didn't win)

Why would you even get into an analytical argument with me? You're not that kind of fan.

This shows you the weakness of your analytics they have their place but they're not the end all be all When Goldie struggles the whole team struggles because everyone else is pressing to do better

But I bet you're one of these people that look at every single at bat as an isolated incident that has no bearing on what other people are doing

 

[DWKB]

This shows you the weakness of your analytics they have their place but they're not the end all be all When Goldie struggles the whole team struggles because everyone else is pressing to do better

But I bet you're one of these people that look at every single at bat as an isolated incident that has no bearing on what other people are doing

You're making a claim you can in no way support or back up. You tried and I easily poked holes in it. I could poke more. It's not about every PA being an isolated event, but it's the sheer amount of variables you're ignoring or hand waving to get where you WANT to go. Not where the information takes you.

I don't try to predict the weather or human behavior in a game of skill. You're the one who wants to delve into that. That's the weakness of your analysis. Analytics knows what it knows and what it doesn't. It's people who abuse data points, like you're doing here, that create weak analysis.


Do you think when successful teams look at their seasons they are more likely to use your methods or mine? Be honest here.

Look, we both can agree that Goldschmidt performing at his usual production level would have been better for the team than what he did in May, but I won't just simply give you those 6-8 wins you're pulling out of your ass.

 

[Dback Jon]

And the weakness of analytics is that they ignore the human element. So tell me, if Goldy had been is career average in May, what changes on the Dbacks record?

 

[DWKB]

And the weakness of analytics is that they ignore the human element. So tell me, if Goldy had been is career average in May, what changes on the Dbacks record?

That's impossible to know with any level of accuracy. Too many variables to account for. Even over a whole season a players contribution to team wins is simply an estimate with accuracy still being debated.

The only human element you're accounting for in your numbers is where you've pulled them out of.

You know you sound like an Intelligent Design supporter. You're so desperate to poke holes in the best prevailing information we have that you've resorted to using worse information as a substitute. Basically telling us God himself showed you how well we'd do with Goldschmidt hitting at his normal production and it was 6-8 games. Let it be written, let it be so.

 

[Dback Jon]

Lmao. So you've just confirm that all of your analytics don't amount to a hill of beans

 

[DWKB]

Lmao. So you've just confirm that all of your analytics don't amount to a hill of beans

You must be registered for see images attach

Go tell all the MLB front offices that their analytics departments are simply a waste of time. You've got it all figured out.

 

[82CardsGrad]

You must be registered for see images attach

Go tell all the MLB front offices that their analytics departments are simply a waste of time. You've got it all figured out.

It's being speculated that Goldy's issues were associated with a huge reliance upon data. And that his turn-around may be due in small or large part, to a reduction of data analytics and a return to his previous approach of "see ball - hit ball"...
Also, the guys on 98.7 spent a fair amount of time yesterday, discussing the hazard of relying solely/too heavily, on data analytics and that there is an emerging trend where teams are easing up on their reliance on data, adopting much more of a blended approach between data and traditional less data-driven approaches.

 

[Dback Jon]

You must be registered for see images attach

Go tell all the MLB front offices that their analytics departments are simply a waste of time. You've got it all figured out.

Over reliance is a waste of time, yes. Balance in everything.

 

[Ronin]

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[BC867]

I just returned from a driving vacation to the Paris Las Vegas hotel and the two Historic Route 66 loops off the I-40. Plus a drive down the winding Oak Creek Canyon and lunch at my favorite Mexican restaurant in Sedona. 'No way I can catch up on all of the posts, but I immediately read the comments on this thread today and will have to mark the rest as read.

If anyone knows any details of why Goldy was able to go from worst (since last season) to first, please mention it.

I had followed the D-backs box scores every day on the trip and, of course, was thrilled to see Goldy carry the offense and get Player of the Week. I guess we'll never be told what he and the coaches discovered and why it took so long.

I really hope that it was not just against three teams that he really owns, IIRC, the Dodgers, Giants and Rockies, but rather, some sort of adjustment or approach. I am looking forward to the position players and pitchers we'll be getting back and seeing us peak by the post-season.

 

[Ronin]

In a year full of disappointing 1Bs, Paul Goldschmidt finally starting to heat up

https://www.citizen-times.com/story...ing-fantasy-baseball-first-basemen/693558002/

 

[DWKB]

It's being speculated that Goldy's issues were associated with a huge reliance upon data. And that his turn-around may be due in small or large part, to a reduction of data analytics and a return to his previous approach of "see ball - hit ball"...
Also, the guys on 98.7 spent a fair amount of time yesterday, discussing the hazard of relying solely/too heavily, on data analytics and that there is an emerging trend where teams are easing up on their reliance on data, adopting much more of a blended approach between data and traditional less data-driven approaches.

So you think Goldy performing as usual would have been worth "6-8 more wins in the month of May" and you can prove it?

Otherwise, what's the point here?

 

[DWKB]

Over reliance is a waste of time, yes. Balance in everything.

Well, you've successfully pivoted from your ******** "numbers" you threw out to a question of any analytical data at all. How very Republican of you Jon. You should work for Fox News.

 

[82CardsGrad]

So you think Goldy performing as usual would have been worth "6-8 more wins in the month of May" and you can prove it?

Otherwise, what's the point here?

Have no idea... I’d say a more typical producing Goldy would’ve produced a few more W’s, but that’s just guessing of course.
My comments were simply tossed into this debate to show that there seems to be a growing awareness of the hazards associated with too strict of a reliance upon data analytics. Data analytics most certainly has a place in pro sports. But according to the chatter on 98.7 the other day, at least in MLB, there appears to be a shift taking place, that is lessening that reliance and establishing a much more blended platform for decision-making...

 

[DWKB]

Have no idea... I’d say a more typical producing Goldy would’ve produced a few more W’s, but that’s just guessing of course.
My comments were simply tossed into this debate to show that there seems to be a growing awareness of the hazards associated with too strict of a reliance upon data analytics. Data analytics most certainly has a place in pro sports. But according to the chatter on 98.7 the other day, at least in MLB, there appears to be a shift taking place, that is lessening that reliance and establishing a much more blended platform for decision-making...

I don't know what I'm supposed to do with "chatter on 98.7". I don't know who that is or what they know or why I should listen to them to be honest. I know that the current WS champs certainly believe in analytics and so do many other very successful teams out there. I know that analytics broke the curse of the Bambino and the goat. So.....

 

[82CardsGrad]

I don't know what I'm supposed to do with "chatter on 98.7". I don't know who that is or what they know or why I should listen to them to be honest. I know that the current WS champs certainly believe in analytics and so do many other very successful teams out there. I know that analytics broke the curse of the Bambino and the goat. So.....

I think the Dbacks “believe” in analytics as well...
As for 98.7, it’s the local sports talk station and the official home of the Dbacks, Cardinals, Suns, Coyotes and ASU football. They do a pretty decent job and with only a few exceptions (Doug, Dave Burns), the hosts are quite informed and bring quality content and info.
I believe you’re in Arkansas so could stream it if you like, by going to www.arizonasports.com. [emoji106]

 

[BC867]

So you think Goldy performing as usual would have been worth "6-8 more wins in the month of May" and you can prove it?

Otherwise, what's the point here?

The point, to me, is that I (as a fan) have wanted to know why Goldy dropped so drastically. There had to be a reason. And then why management took so long to figure it out.

And with Lamb, Souza and then Pollock missing from the heart of the order, all of the pressure fell on Goldy to be the lone power hitter driving in runs, which made the problem even worse and put pressure on the rest of the hitters. And the pitchers.

The proof? The D-backs went from being the first place team in the Division to the worst and ultimately dropping out of first place.

Now that the problem has apparently been identified, Goldy is on a tear and the D-backs are back in first place.

And if the obsession with analytics affected Goldy, common sense says that it affected most of the other hitters as well. The domino effect, whether winning or losing.

 

[DWKB]

The point, to me, is that I (as a fan) have wanted to know why Goldy dropped so drastically. There had to be a reason. And then why management took so long to figure it out.

And with Lamb, Souza and then Pollock missing from the heart of the order, all of the pressure fell on Goldy to be the lone power hitter driving in runs, which made the problem even worse and put pressure on the rest of the hitters. And the pitchers.

The proof? The D-backs went from being the first place team in the Division to the worst and ultimately dropping out of first place.

Now that the problem has apparently been identified, Goldy is on a tear and the D-backs are back in first place.

And if the obsession with analytics affected Goldy, common sense says that it affected most of the other hitters as well. The domino effect, whether winning or losing.

I don’t even know what you’re trying to say.

Can you show that the DBacks would have won 6-8 games in May with an average Goldschmidt?

Not 2, not 5, and not 10, but 6-8?

This all starts with @Dback Jon stating t was “indisputable” that the DBacks list 6-8 games because of his slump.

I said that number is obviously disputable and he proceeded to turn the discussion into some attack on analytics that you and @82CardsGrad decide you need to pile on aboutfor some reason.

 

[BC867]

I don’t even know what you’re trying to say.

Can you show that the DBacks would have won 6-8 games in May with an average Goldschmidt?

Not 2, not 5, and not 10, but 6-8?

This all starts with @Dback Jon stating t was “indisputable” that the DBacks list 6-8 games because of his slump.

I said that number is obviously disputable and he proceeded to turn the discussion into some attack on analytics that you and @82CardsGrad decide you need to pile on about for some reason.

As you pointed out, the "6-8" quote was not mine. How can anyone prove how many games would have changed? It is a meaningless debate.


I was addressing the overall situation of the D-backs' pathetic hitting losing 1st place. And the role that the face of the organization played in that and how it affected the rest of the batting order. And the coaching staff for not solving it sooner. Are you disagreeing with that? If not, I'm not the one you should be addressing about the "6-8" quote.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I don’t even know what you’re trying to say.

Can you show that the DBacks would have won 6-8 games in May with an average Goldschmidt?

Not 2, not 5, and not 10, but 6-8?

This all starts with @Dback Jon stating t was “indisputable” that the DBacks list 6-8 games because of his slump.

I said that number is obviously disputable and he proceeded to turn the discussion into some attack on analytics that you and @82CardsGrad decide you need to pile on aboutfor some reason.

C'mon man... "piling on?" I merely offered some insight I had gathered over the airwaves... while also affirming your position by saying that the Dbacks also value analytics.

 

[gimpy]

Oh, man.