Keep Nash or trade Nash?

[AzStevenCal]

It's not whether the Suns will struggle without Nash, it's whether they will struggle enough to move up enough spots in the draft that their chances of drafting a future star will improve drastically enough. My point is that to be able to answer that with any degree of certainty it is not enough to simply look at what the team has done without Nash in the past. I've said many times in the past that this team can't function without Nash, but at the same time you can't expect them to not make any adjustments at all.

But even if they indeed start losing as often as the worst teams in the league which is quite possible given the lack of talent, those teams are already ahead in the loss column and there is no reason to expect that they will improve. It simply may be too late to trade Nash now to make any significant difference in the long run.

IMO, if we were to lose Nash today, we'd finish with the 4th worst record in the NBA. The only teams that wouldn't pass us are Charlotte, Washington and New Orleans. Some teams pull together when they lose their star but I don't see it happening for us. In fact, I think Frye would disappear completely and we'd be looking to fill two spots instead of one. Unlike some people, I don't think this team is designed to play with Nash. I just think this team is poorly designed and it succeeds solely because of Nash.

Steve

 

[Cheesebeef]

With our luck we would have to most lottery balls and still come out with the last possible pick.


I tend to think that if you try to tank karma bites you in the ass.

tell that to the Spurs/Cavs... or the Thunder... or the Bulls before they got Rose.

 

[Cheesebeef]

IMO, if we were to lose Nash today, we'd finish with the 4th worst record in the NBA. The only teams that wouldn't pass us are Charlotte, Washington and New Orleans. Some teams pull together when they lose their star but I don't see it happening for us. In fact, I think Frye would disappear completely and we'd be looking to fill two spots instead of one. Unlike some people, I don't think this team is designed to play with Nash. I just think this team is poorly designed and it succeeds solely because of Nash.

Steve

completely agreed. if we were to get rid of Nash, we'd instantly become the worst team in the NBA. Maybe win 4 more games all season IMO. A record of 18-48 would get us in the top five which is where you need to be to get the highest impact players.

and Griffin, you can talk about "the team will make adjustments"... but there's NO adjustments a team can make to get better when there simply is a horrific mish-mash of mediocrity at best on the team.

 

[Griffin]

IMO, if we were to lose Nash today, we'd finish with the 4th worst record in the NBA. The only teams that wouldn't pass us are Charlotte, Washington and New Orleans.

That would mean a winning percentage of around 0.130 or going 4-29 the rest of the way. That's about where Charlotte is right now. I don't know about that. The reason I'm skeptical is because Charlotte is on pace to finish with the second lowest winning percentage in NBA history. So essentially you'd have to argue that the Suns, sans Nash, are one of the worst teams not just this season but in NBA history. There is no evidence for that yet. The Suns record without Nash is 10-25 since 2004. Even if we assume that they would do as poorly after Nash is gone as they had previously without him, that's still a winning percentage of 0.286. I guess you could argue that most of those games were in prior seasons when the Suns were more talented, but there's a big drop from that to the historically bad 4-29 required to get the 4th worst record. I just don't see them losing that many games.

Btw, if the Suns did continue at the 0.286 pace after trading Nash right now, they would finish with the 8th worst record, assuming all other teams continue at their current paces. But of course any Nash trade likely won't happen until near the trade deadline, leaving far fewer games left to lose.

and Griffin, you can talk about "the team will make adjustments"... but there's NO adjustments a team can make to get better when there simply is a horrific mish-mash of mediocrity at best on the team.

As I have said, even if the team makes no adjustments at all and keeps losing at their current "without Nash" pace, there simply won't be enough games left in the season to move higher than 8th. For your scenario to come true, they would have to do considerably worse than they have ever done without Nash, historically worse, losing almost 90% of their remaining games. That's Bobcats territory. I suppose anything's possible, I just don't think that's probable.

 

[Lorenzo]

Free steve nash! I think they should trade him. he doesn't have much time left in his career and the suns are hoarding him. Barring a incredible lucky turnaround which doesn't happen often, they are not winning a title any time soon. the only example I could turn to would be the celtics and lakers, but they were extremely lucky to add gasol/garnett/allen/etc. even the heat wern't able to pull of a title right away with james/bosh. the clippers are making an incredible turn around as well, but I do not see them winning a ring this year. and I do think it will take time for blake griffin to be a championship player because he has flaws in his game.

so I think the suns owe it to themselves and steve to trade him while he can still play at that elite level. I don't want to see nash go to a team like the heat where he would clearly put them over the top. but steve deserves to hold the o'brien trophy. that would cement his legacy just as it did for dirk and j-kidd last year.

 

[AzStevenCal]

That would mean a winning percentage of around 0.130 or going 4-29 the rest of the way. That's about where Charlotte is right now. I don't know about that. The reason I'm skeptical is because Charlotte is on pace to finish with the second lowest winning percentage in NBA history. So essentially you'd have to argue that the Suns, sans Nash, are one of the worst teams not just this season but in NBA history. There is no evidence for that yet. The Suns record without Nash is 10-25 since 2004. Even if we assume that they would do as poorly after Nash is gone as they had previously without him, that's still a winning percentage of 0.286. I guess you could argue that most of those games were in prior seasons when the Suns were more talented, but there's a big drop from that to the historically bad 4-29 required to get the 4th worst record. I just don't see them losing that many games.

Btw, if the Suns did continue at the 0.286 pace after trading Nash right now, they would finish with the 8th worst record, assuming all other teams continue at their current paces. But of course any Nash trade likely won't happen until near the trade deadline, leaving far fewer games left to lose.

Not only were those Suns teams more talented, the mix of talent was so much better. Without Nash we are an offensive oriented team that lacks both a facilitator and a player that can create his own shot. Keep this poor mix of players together and replace Nash with Barbosa or Dragic and I think we would win 5 or 6 more games this season. But, as is, this team without Nash may not win another game this season. We don't do anything well enough to force a win, our only chance is that the other team plays well below their average. I don't even think we'd beat Charlotte without Nash. I don't think we'd be the least talented team of all time but I do believe we'd be among the worst teams ever because we are so poorly constructed.

I agree that every game we keep Nash decreases our chances to get a great pick but that just means there's an urgency to move him, not that we shouldn't move him. I don't think moving Nash is the only way to turn this franchise around nor do I consider it a guarantee that it will benefit us in the long run if we trade him but if you boil it down solely to a draft pick this season, I think it's a sure bet that our odds will improve.

Steve

 

[Cheesebeef]

That would mean a winning percentage of around 0.130 or going 4-29 the rest of the way. That's about where Charlotte is right now. I don't know about that. The reason I'm skeptical is because Charlotte is on pace to finish with the second lowest winning percentage in NBA history. So essentially you'd have to argue that the Suns, sans Nash, are one of the worst teams not just this season but in NBA history. There is no evidence for that yet. The Suns record without Nash is 10-25 since 2004. Even if we assume that they would do as poorly after Nash is gone as they had previously without him, that's still a winning percentage of 0.286. I guess you could argue that most of those games were in prior seasons when the Suns were more talented, but there's a big drop from that to the historically bad 4-29 required to get the 4th worst record. I just don't see them losing that many games.

i do. I actually DO believe that you take Steve Nash off this team and they are one of the worst teams in NBA history. Their best player would Marcin Gortat... and their second best player would be... uh... Jared Dudley? That's the makings of one of the worst teams in NBA history.

Btw, if the Suns did continue at the 0.286 pace after trading Nash right now, they would finish with the 8th worst record, assuming all other teams continue at their current paces.

again, i don't believe this motley crew without Nash could even come close to winning at a .286 clip. The previous teams that did so were WCF teams with Nash. This is a bad team with Nash. They'd likely win 5 games the rest of the way, MAX in my opinion.

As I have said, even if the team makes no adjustments at all and keeps losing at their current "without Nash" pace, there simply won't be enough games left in the season to move higher than 8th. For your scenario to come true, they would have to do considerably worse than they have ever done without Nash, historically worse, losing almost 90% of their remaining games. That's Bobcats territory. I suppose anything's possible, I just don't think that's probable.

then I think you're in serious denial about how awful this roster really is. you take Nash away and we're not just one of the worst teams in the league, we ARE one of the worst teams of all time.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

It's amazing that people don't see how bad we are sans Nash and Grant Hill. There is no doubt that there isn't a less talented roster, with the exception of maybe Charlotte.

 

[JCSunsfan]

We are getting too long in the season now. Trading Nash might not be enough to get us a significantly better lotto pick. Now its more about what we would get in return. We need everyone to start having a bad time.

 

[Joe Mama]

Now I admit I've only seen quarters/halves on 5-10 Phoenix Suns games this year, but I'm with cheese and others on this. Without Steve Nash I don't know if this team could win two more games this season. It would really just depend on what they got back. Now somebody go find a team that Steve Nash would actually want to play for who could give us expiring contracts for guys who either suck terribly or won't play and a draft pick or two.

Joe

 

[slinslin]

If they trade Nash they are definitely getting a top 5 pick.

Only Charlotte, New Orleans and Washington seem very unlikely to catch.

 

[Griffin]

For the record, the trade deadline is March 15th. After that the Suns have 23 games left in the season. If the Suns continue at present course, at trade deadline their record will be 18-25. There are currently five teams already on pace to win 19 games or fewer this season: Charlotte (9), New Orleans (14), Washington (14), Toronto (19), New Jersey (19). Detroit and Sacramento are not far behind (21). Assuming these trends hold up, the Suns would pretty much have to go 0-23 or 1-22 after the trade deadline to get into the top 5.

Btw, 4 of the 23 games remaining after the trade deadline are against New Orleans, Cleveland, Detroit and Sacramento.

 

[Cheesebeef]

For the record, the trade deadline is March 15th. After that the Suns have 23 games left in the season. If the Suns continue at present course, at trade deadline their record will be 18-25. There are currently five teams already on pace to win 19 games or fewer this season: Charlotte (9), New Orleans (14), Washington (14), Toronto (19), New Jersey (19). Detroit and Sacramento are not far behind (21). Assuming these trends hold up, the Suns would pretty much have to go 0-23 or 1-22 after the trade deadline to get into the top 5.

it wouldn't surprise me at all if this team went on a Charlotte like losing streak of dropping 16 in a row if Nash was traded. I believe the mish-mash of talent on this team is actually THAT bad.

 

[mojorizen7]

I'm not bull$hitting myself when i say that IMO this team might win 2 more games if Nash was removed. The offensive output and chemistry would be awful...and not because the guys we have dont know how to score points...they wouldn't know how to get themselves or each other in a position to score points. I dont believe Gentry would be able to find a way to even patch that problem in the short term.

I'd love to find out.

 

[BC867]

I'm not bull$hitting myself when i say that IMO this team might win 2 more games if Nash was removed. The offensive output and chemistry would be awful...and not because the guys we have dont know how to score points...they wouldn't know how to get themselves or each other in a position to score points. I dont believe Gentry would be able to find a way to even patch that problem in the short term.

I'd love to find out.

If any team's starting Point Guard were removed and not replaced with a starting caliber Point Guard, their record would sink to the bottom.

I think your key phrase is "the guys we have".

The question is if we replace Nash appropriately with a starter, and added a solid backup as well, could the team adapt during the season? Rather, could they compete during the season? The answer is probably 'no'.

Could Gentry adapt? The answer is also probably 'no'. It wasn't until the following season that he stopped playing Gortat off the bench, then not resting him until the end of the half, which wore him down.

I guess it comes down to whether keeping Nash for the rest of this season will add any significant revenue over winning only two more games vs. the number of ping pong balls.

Nobody wants their team to be a laughingstock, but then nobody wants their team to be fighting for the final playoff spot for the next decade either.

In the words of Christopher Walken, that is a conundrum!

 

[mojorizen7]

If any team's starting Point Guard were removed and not replaced with a starting caliber Point Guard, their record would sink to the bottom.

I disagree. It depends on the style of offense a team runs,where it starts,where its designed to go to,how its designed to involve different players in different positions on the floor etc...

Nashball starts with Nash,asks Nash to create shots for everyone,and if the O breaks down Nash(plus maybe Gortat) is expected to score.

Teams that run inside/out or motion offense etc...can more easily create offense if the star PG sits. These teams usually have guys on the floor capable of creating something without having to be spoonfed Hall of Fame passes too.

 

[Cheesebeef]

If any team's starting Point Guard were removed and not replaced with a starting caliber Point Guard, their record would sink to the bottom.

you mean like the Bulls, who have gone 7-3 with their MVP PG out of the lineup for 10 games this year?

or what about the Spurs who routinely lose Tony Parker for extended periods of time and usually keep on keeping on?

And those aren't just normal starting point guards... those are two of the best PGs in the league who's teams don't sink to the bottom when they're injured.

 

[slinslin]

For the record, the trade deadline is March 15th. After that the Suns have 23 games left in the season. If the Suns continue at present course, at trade deadline their record will be 18-25. There are currently five teams already on pace to win 19 games or fewer this season: Charlotte (9), New Orleans (14), Washington (14), Toronto (19), New Jersey (19). Detroit and Sacramento are not far behind (21). Assuming these trends hold up, the Suns would pretty much have to go 0-23 or 1-22 after the trade deadline to get into the top 5.

Btw, 4 of the 23 games remaining after the trade deadline are against New Orleans, Cleveland, Detroit and Sacramento.

New Jersey is getting Brook Lopez back and will be better.

Toronto should get Kleiza and Bargnani back at some point.

Detroit is 6-4 over the last 10 games.

If we trade Nash I have no doubt we will be in the top 5 with New Orleans , Charlotte and Washington.

 

[JustWinBaby]

Just saw on Real GM that Orlando/Smith is going to try to make a deal with us for Nash.

What about this?

Nash 11.6
Frye 5.6
total 17.2

for

Reddick 7.3
Nelson 7.3
Anderson 2.2
Orlando 1st this year(currently 24th)

total 16.8

This would work under the CBA

For Phoenix

We do not lose Nash for nothing and get a young Ryan Anderson (24) as a solid piece alongside Gortat going forward. He will basically be one of our free agent signings this summer. We get a PG and Wing that can play and are only guaranteed through next year. Bottom line the rebuild is under way. We may be able to get a a nice player at 24 as well. We increase our cap space this summer minus Anderson. I do not know how much Anderson will cost us to keep him this summer but I like him.
If they will take Warrick, they can have him as well and I believe the trade works under the CBA, it would be better for us.

For Orlando

They replace Anderson with Frye and get a Hall of fame guard to feed Dwight. The pick and roll could be legendary between Nash and Dwight.

Orlando is basically the Suns prior to Amare and Richarson leaving only replacing Amare with Dwight, not bad.

Can Nash and Turoglu coexist?

I think both teams could help themselves with this deal.

For those that think Nash can play another 5 years I expect you will hate it.

Oh, our draft position should improve for this summer as well.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Just saw on Real GM that Orlando/Smith is going to try to make a deal with us for Nash.

What about this?

Nash 11.6
Frye 5.6
total 17.2

for

Reddick 7.3
Nelson 7.3
Anderson 2.2
Orlando 1st this year(currently 24th)

total 16.8

This would work under the CBA

For Phoenix

We do not lose Nash for nothing and get a young Ryan Anderson (24) as a solid piece alongside Gortat going forward. He will basically be one of our free agent signings this summer. We get a PG and Wing that can play and are only guaranteed through next year. Bottom line the rebuild is under way. We may be able to get a a nice player at 24 as well. We increase our cap space this summer minus Anderson. I do not know how much Anderson will cost us to keep him this summer but I like him.
If they will take Warrick, they can have him as well and I believe the trade works under the CBA, it would be better for us.

For Orlando

They replace Anderson with Frye and get a Hall of fame guard to feed Dwight. The pick and roll could be legendary between Nash and Dwight.

Orlando is basically the Suns prior to Amare and Richarson leaving only replacing Amare with Dwight, not bad.

Can Nash and Turoglu coexist?

I think both teams could help themselves with this deal.

For those that think Nash can play another 5 years I expect you will hate it.

Oh, our draft position should improve for this summer as well.

Have you run across a lot of people that believe he can be an effective guard for 5 more years? I sure haven't. Regardless, I'd make that deal in a heartbeat.

Steve

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Have you run across a lot of people that believe he can be an effective guard for 5 more years? I sure haven't. Regardless, I'd make that deal in a heartbeat.

Steve

Of course, but I doubt Anderson would be part of the trade. While I'd love it to happen, maybe take a 1st rounder 2 years from now in lieu of Anderson? Could be a valuable pick if Dwight leaves town...

 

[AzStevenCal]

Of course, but I doubt Anderson would be part of the trade. While I'd love it to happen, maybe take a 1st rounder 2 years from now in lieu of Anderson? Could be a valuable pick if Dwight leaves town...

Yeah, I'd be shocked if they gave us that much if all they want is Nash. We rip Frye a lot but maybe they'd value his skills playing with Nash alongside Howard. And I'm all for draft picks down the road as long as we don't agree to protection.

Steve

 

[Folster]

I'd rather let Nash walk next year than take back any package that Orlando could offer for him. Taking back Nelson and Reddick kills our cap space. A third team would have to be involved, and I'm not sure there's one out there that would like Orlando's junk.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I'd rather let Nash walk next year than take back any package that Orlando could offer for him. Taking back Nelson and Reddick kills our cap space. A third team would have to be involved, and I'm not sure there's one out there that would like Orlando's junk.

I don't really see that as much of a problem. We need to be BAD for a couple of years and those guys seem capable of living that dream. By the team we'll need to bring in quality FA's those guys should be going if not gone.

Steve

 

[elindholm]

What about this?

Nash 11.6
Frye 5.6
total 17.2

for

Reddick 7.3
Nelson 7.3
Anderson 2.2
Orlando 1st this year(currently 24th)

total 16.8

That's not a bad deal, but I really don't have any interest in Reddick, who is exactly the kind of player that the Suns are trying to move away from -- undersized, one-dimensional, and soft. I'd rather take back Jason Richardson. He's been a big disappointment this year and it wouldn't surprise me if Orlando has some buyer's remorse after re-upping with him this summer. Would Richardson be any better back in Phoenix, no, probably not, but he'd at least have decent resale value if his scoring picked back up (with more touches). And with Frye's contract moving out, the Suns could take back Richardson without changing their cap space situation. They'd still have room for one max FA, which is plenty, because there's no way in hell they're getting two anyway.

It's a big gamble for Orlando, because if Howard walks, then they've given up Anderson and a pick for Frye, for basically no reason. But I like it for the Suns, because now you have four decent players moving forward with Gortat/Anderson/Morris/Dudley -- well, plus Richardson, really, who even in his current condition is vastly better than any SG on the Suns' current roster -- plus two picks this summer, plus a lot of cap space ... it could be worse.