Originally posted by Card Trader
This should be something that doesn't have a number like 50% attached to it...it should be almost ALWAYS the truth.
It probably is.
The Kanin report is all over the web. It is mostly cited on "men's rights" web sites, exhibiting a tendency toward misogynism. It seems to be the only researched commonly cited in support of the contention that rape allegations are frequently false.
Note that Kanin's research is based entirely on the reports of the police in one small unidentified Midwestern community in the late 70's and early 80's. If this is the strongest support for the case, that says something about the strength of the case.
Different studies have reported varying results all over the map. Kanin's report is, not surprisingly, at one end of the spectrum. By contrast, a study in the Portland area reported that only 1.6% of rape allegations were false. (Of course, the presence of the Trailblazers may skew that percentage.) The FBI estimates that, nationally, the percentage is about 2-3%.
Even if these statistics were reliable, they would have little implication for the Kobe Bryant case. Rape allegations against such high-profile celebrities are far too rare to generate any kind of meaningful statistics. It would be unreasonable to assume that the rate of false reports in such cases is necessarily the same as the rate of false reports in allegations against non-celebrities.