Kyler Murray Debate Thread

[kerouac9]

Kyler has NEVER led a team to the playoffs. We backed in with help from other teams the year he was embarrassed by the Rams. He couldn't win a playoff-clinching game to save his life.

He lead the Sooners to the playoffs, where they were competitive for about 13 minutes on the game clock before going down 21 points.

Also -- can I interest you in Kyler's high school career?

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Does Gil Brandt's opinion mean anything to you?

Obviously a sub-Kyler Murray result isn't guaranteed. But let's look at all the first-round QBs drafted in the two years before and after Kyler:

2021 1 1 Trevor Lawrence Jaguars Clemson - SAME LEVEL
2021 2 2 Zach Wilson Jets Brigham Young - WORSE
2021 3 3 Trey Lance 49ers North Dakota State - WORSE
2021 11 11 Justin Fields Bears Ohio State - WORSE
2021 15 15 Mac Jones Patriots Alabama - WORSE
2020 1 1 Joe Burrow Bengals Louisiana State - BETTER
2020 5 5 Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins Alabama - SAME LEVEL
2020 6 6 Justin Herbert Chargers Oregon - BETTER
2020 26 26 Jordan Love Packers Utah State - SAME LEVEL
2019 1 1 Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma - ACTUALLY KYLER
2019 6 6 Daniel Jones Giants Duke - WORSE
2019 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State - WORSE (RIP)
2018 1 1 Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma - SAME LEVEL
2018 3 3 Sam Darnold Jets USC - SAME LEVEL
2018 7 7 Josh Allen Bills Wyoming - BETTER
2018 10 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA - WORSE
2018 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville - BETTER
2017 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina - WORSE
2017 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech - BETTER
2017 12 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson - BETTER, THEN WORSE

This is obviously a rough heuristic, but by my count, over a five-year sample size, 19 QBs were selected, nine are clearly worse than Kyler, and five are clearly better.

By my math that's a 74% chance you're the same or worse off at the end of the day. You're just changing the package.

This is a very odd sample - why not include more years, guys that were drafted recently, or out of the 1st round? That eliminates many players that are clearly better than Kyler, like Daniels/Goff/Purdy/Hurts/Mayfield/Stroud. All these names are available routes to improve your QB situation, and don't factor into your "3 out of 4 chance you're the same or worse than Kyler" argument.

I find it incredibly hard to believe that the majority of the fan base will be ok running it back again if we get same old Kyler and no playoffs.

 

[DVontel]

I’m ready to move on from Kyler. As are a lot of people

However

We’re a historically piss-poor franchise so I expect us to remain piss-poor even when Kyler is out of Arizona until proven otherwise.

 

[PDXChris]

Nice little deep dive into the crap shoot drafting a QB is.

You must be registered for see images attach

Since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, well over 500 different quarterbacks have been selected in the NFL Draft.

The chances of a quarterback making even one All-Pro first team is just 4.6%; a 1:25 shot. However, that chance more than doubles when selecting a signal-caller in the first round (9.4%) and rises to 11.9% if the player is selected in the top five.

Think about that.

If you are taking a quarterback, and you determine there is one available in the top five who fits your criteria, you have turned your chance of landing one of the top passers in the game from a Hail Mary to a long-third down conversion. It's still tough, but there is a much higher probability.

Not every quarterback is going to be an All-Pro. And failing to achieve that doesn't mean you aren't a franchise quarterback. So let's lower the standard to Pro Bowlers.

Where are great NFL QBs picked? Analyzing 54 years of history by draft position | FOX Sports

Finding a franchise QB is hard enough, but if you look beyond the first round of the NFL Draft, your chances drop significantly.

www.foxsports.com

 

[daves]

Obviously a sub-Kyler Murray result isn't guaranteed. But let's look at all the first-round QBs drafted in the two years before and after Kyler:

2021 1 1 Trevor Lawrence Jaguars Clemson - SAME LEVEL
2021 2 2 Zach Wilson Jets Brigham Young - WORSE
2021 3 3 Trey Lance 49ers North Dakota State - WORSE
2021 11 11 Justin Fields Bears Ohio State - WORSE
2021 15 15 Mac Jones Patriots Alabama - WORSE
2020 1 1 Joe Burrow Bengals Louisiana State - BETTER
2020 5 5 Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins Alabama - SAME LEVEL
2020 6 6 Justin Herbert Chargers Oregon - BETTER
2020 26 26 Jordan Love Packers Utah State - SAME LEVEL
2019 1 1 Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma - ACTUALLY KYLER
2019 6 6 Daniel Jones Giants Duke - WORSE
2019 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State - WORSE (RIP)
2018 1 1 Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma - SAME LEVEL
2018 3 3 Sam Darnold Jets USC - SAME LEVEL
2018 7 7 Josh Allen Bills Wyoming - BETTER
2018 10 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA - WORSE
2018 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville - BETTER
2017 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina - WORSE
2017 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech - BETTER
2017 12 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson - BETTER, THEN WORSE

This is obviously a rough heuristic, but by my count, over a five-year sample size, 19 QBs were selected, nine are clearly worse than Kyler, and five are clearly better.

By my math that's a 74% chance you're the same or worse off at the end of the day. You're just changing the package.

(a) I would strongly prefer Mayfield and Love to Murray.

Love has been a bit erratic and prone to minor injuries, but that's no different from Murray, he's 2 for 2 leading his team to the playoffs, and won a playoff game.

Mayfield had tough seasons in Cleveland but still led them to a playoff win, and is now 2 for 2 leading the Buccaneers to the playoffs, with another win.

(b) That leaves your list with 7 better and 7 worse. Some of the "better" are much, much better and give a solid team a chance of winning the Super Bowl every year, unlike Murray.

11 of 18 are either better or the same, so the odds are pretty good to either improve a lot, improve a little, or stay the same but with a QB on a rookie contract.

 

[WeBlitz]

(a) I would strongly prefer Mayfield and Love to Murray.

Love has been a bit erratic and prone to minor injuries, but that's no different from Murray, he's 2 for 2 leading his team to the playoffs, and won a playoff game.

Mayfield had tough seasons in Cleveland but still led them to a playoff win, and is now 2 for 2 leading the Buccaneers to the playoffs, with another win.

(b) That leaves your list with 7 better and 7 worse. Some of the "better" are much, much better and give a solid team a chance of winning the Super Bowl every year, unlike Murray.

11 of 18 are either better or the same, so the odds are pretty good to either improve a lot, improve a little, or stay the same but with a QB on a rookie contract.

But then you remember we’re the Arizona Cardinals.

 

[kerouac9]

This is a very odd sample - why not include more years, guys that were drafted recently, or out of the 1st round? That eliminates many players that are clearly better than Kyler, like Daniels/Goff/Purdy/Hurts/Mayfield/Stroud. All these names are available routes to improve your QB situation, and don't factor into your "3 out of 4 chance you're the same or worse than Kyler" argument.

I find it incredibly hard to believe that the majority of the fan base will be ok running it back again if we get same old Kyler and no playoffs.

I excluded guys drafted more recently because the sample size isn't large enough to provide a true or complete analysis. Stroud had a great rookie year and a pretty mid sophomore season. I think he's going to end up being about the same as Kyler (Tua edition), but we don't know enough.

If you want to add the three years before Kyler was drafted, I don't think that supports your cause:


2016 1 1 Jared Goff Rams California - SAME LEVEL
2016 2 2 Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State - SAME LEVEL
2016 26 26 Paxton Lynch Broncos Memphis - WORSE
2015 1 1 Jameis Winston Buccaneers Florida State - WORSE
2015 2 2 Marcus Mariota Titans Oregon - WORSE
2014 3 3 Blake Bortles Jaguars Central Florida - WORSE
2014 22 22 Johnny Manziel Browns Texas A&M - WORSE
2014 32 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings Louisville - WORSE

(a) I would strongly prefer Mayfield and Love to Murray.

Love has been a bit erratic and prone to minor injuries, but that's no different from Murray, he's 2 for 2 leading his team to the playoffs, and won a playoff game.

Mayfield had tough seasons in Cleveland but still led them to a playoff win, and is now 2 for 2 leading the Buccaneers to the playoffs, with another win.

(b) That leaves your list with 7 better and 7 worse. Some of the "better" are much, much better and give a solid team a chance of winning the Super Bowl every year, unlike Murray.

11 of 18 are either better or the same, so the odds are pretty good to either improve a lot, improve a little, or stay the same but with a QB on a rookie contract.

Mayfield is on his fourth team. If I had to choose between them right now, I'd pull my hair out over it. I probably would take Baker over Kyler, but only because the packaging is different.

I think Love is a hard one because, like with Stroud, the sample size is small. I think he ends up about the same as Kyler, but I could see the stats looking better because he's with a better organization, a better (offensive) coach, and arguably a better supporting cast.

Also, I have nine worse than Kyler. You didn't move any of those to the similar column. I disagree that any of those guys are clearly better than Kyler. They're just different packaging.

 

[ajcardfan]

We bitch constantly about the QB except for about 5 seasons in my entire time as a Cardinals. The only time we had a "Defense wins Championships" type of mindset was the Buddy Ryan disaster. Throw money and draft picks as QBs and WRs and ignore the guts of the defense is all we have ever done.

It's beyond time, IMO, to try something different and build a nasty killer defense.

 

[kerouac9]

We bitch constantly about the QB except for about 5 seasons in my entire time as a Cardinals. The only time we had a "Defense wins Championships" type of mindset was the Buddy Ryan disaster. Throw money and draft picks as QBs and WRs and ignore the guts of the defense is all we have ever done.

It's beyond time, IMO, to try something different and build a nasty killer defense.

We had top 10 defenses for three straight years under Arians and then canned him to great fanfare among the fans on this board.

We went to the Super Bowl under Whis with the 28th-ranked scoring defense.

Offense is more consistent year over year. The vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense has ranked outside the top 10 one year in the past seven and have one conference championship game appearance to show for it.

 

[schutd]

Does Gil Brandt's opinion mean anything to you?

Obviously a sub-Kyler Murray result isn't guaranteed. But let's look at all the first-round QBs drafted in the two years before and after Kyler:

2021 1 1 Trevor Lawrence Jaguars Clemson - SAME LEVEL
2021 2 2 Zach Wilson Jets Brigham Young - WORSE
2021 3 3 Trey Lance 49ers North Dakota State - WORSE
2021 11 11 Justin Fields Bears Ohio State - WORSE
2021 15 15 Mac Jones Patriots Alabama - WORSE
2020 1 1 Joe Burrow Bengals Louisiana State - BETTER
2020 5 5 Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins Alabama - SAME LEVEL
2020 6 6 Justin Herbert Chargers Oregon - BETTER
2020 26 26 Jordan Love Packers Utah State - SAME LEVEL
2019 1 1 Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma - ACTUALLY KYLER
2019 6 6 Daniel Jones Giants Duke - WORSE
2019 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State - WORSE (RIP)
2018 1 1 Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma - SAME LEVEL
2018 3 3 Sam Darnold Jets USC - SAME LEVEL
2018 7 7 Josh Allen Bills Wyoming - BETTER
2018 10 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA - WORSE
2018 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville - BETTER
2017 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina - WORSE
2017 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech - BETTER
2017 12 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson - BETTER, THEN WORSE

This is obviously a rough heuristic, but by my count, over a five-year sample size, 19 QBs were selected, nine are clearly worse than Kyler, and five are clearly better.

By my math that's a 74% chance you're the same or worse off at the end of the day. You're just changing the package.

ACTUALLY KYLER

 

[Mulli]

is Justin Herbert better?

 

[BirdGangThing]

is Justin Herbert better?

at being tall?

 

[kerouac9]

is Justin Herbert better?

Yes

 

[daves]

Mayfield is on his fourth team. If I had to choose between them right now, I'd pull my hair out over it. I probably would take Baker over Kyler, but only because the packaging is different.

I wouldn't hesitate for a second swapping Murray for Mayfield. He won a playoff game in his third year, with the BROWNS! Not his fault that the Browns are one of the few teams even more inept than the Cardinals.

I think Love is a hard one because, like with Stroud, the sample size is small. I think he ends up about the same as Kyler, but I could see the stats looking better because he's with a better organization, a better (offensive) coach, and arguably a better supporting cast.

Again... He won a playoff game in his first year as a starter.

Anyway, no need to get sidetracked quibbling over your ratings of who's better, same, or worse....

Also, I have nine worse than Kyler. You didn't move any of those to the similar column. I disagree that any of those guys are clearly better than Kyler. They're just different packaging.

Ah right, I forgot to update my numbers after deleting my thoughts on additional QBs who could be shifted from worse to same (Fields? Jones? [a playoff game winner!]) or same to better (Tua if it weren't for his extreme injury risk, Lawrence [another playoff game winner]).

My main point is that even if the chances are roughly equal for drafting someone worse, equal, or better - if the guy is worse, you can get rid of him relatively quickly. If the same, at least he's on a rookie contract and you can theoretically give him a better supporting cast. If better, you have a chance at winning playoff games pretty quickly. And some of the ones who are better are MUCH, MUCH better and give a realistic chance of regularly competing for championships.

So if Murray doesn't prove THIS YEAR that he can win a playoff game, I say it's time to roll the dice on the next guy.

 

[kerouac9]

My main point is that even if the chances are roughly equal for drafting someone worse, equal, or better - if the guy is worse, you can get rid of him relatively quickly. If the same, at least he's on a rookie contract and you can theoretically give him a better supporting cast. If better, you have a chance at winning playoff games pretty quickly. And some of the ones who are better are MUCH, MUCH better and give a realistic chance of regularly competing for championships.

So if Murray doesn't prove THIS YEAR that he can win a playoff game, I say it's time to roll the dice on the next guy.

I'm not convinced why or how winning a playoff game (or even two!) should be automatically qualifying. The sample size with Kyler is one. The sample size with Love is three (losing two). Matt Stafford was 0-3 in the playoffs before winning four straight on the way to the Super Bowl. Jimmy Garoppolo is 4-2 as a playoff quarterback.

Wins are not a QB statistic and should (at least!) be weighted against the two-dozen or more other games. You can't make the playoffs unless you're a consistent winner in the regular season.

Do you want to tell Pats and Jets and Bears and Giants fans how fast and easy it is to move off a young QB drafted early and shows promise? Do you want to tell Seahawks and Falcons fans that actually it's quite simple to move off an established starter and maintain excellence?

If the point is that you're tired of the specific flavor of Kyler mediocrity, then I'm sympathetic to that argument, although I disagree. But the argument that it's actually quite easy to upgrade from Kyler Murray and give yourself a chance to win one or more playoff games? That is not supportable by the evidence.

This team has won 16 games total in the past three seasons. My bias is against awful football.