Lakers Draft Pick Watch: Hindenburg or bust thread.

[Errntknght]

I think it will probably come down to wire. My projection is that they will finish 18-10 for a final WL of 43-39 which may or may not be good enough. I see the next four games as key (Boston, Portland, @Dallas, @Denver). If they go 4-0 my final projection goes to 45-37 which is almost certain to put them in the playoffs. If they go 2-2 then my final projection stays at 43-39.

An interesting situation might occur when San Antonio plays them in their 81st game. Supposing SA has a comfortable lead at that point so it is not relevant to their position but it might determine whether they butt heads with the Lakers or Houston in the first round. Does Popovich rest his troops or try to keep the Lakers out?

 

[JCSunsfan]

Probably, but the chances are better at #13 than #26. Lottery pick is also a much more valuable trade asset, and you never know if you'll get lucky in the lottery and move up.

The pressure will be off with that second pick. They will be able to take the BPA without second guessing. Usually that makes for a better choice. Also, in this draft, 4-20 is pretty level. There is a chance of getting a decent player in that group.

 

[Phrazbit]

I cant really project how the Lakers will do over their final 28 because I havnt seen enough of them without Pau. What little they've played without him makes me think they will be lucky to crack .500 over their remaining games but its been too small a sample size to say that with any confidence.

 

[Errntknght]

I cant really project how the Lakers will do over their final 28 because I havnt seen enough of them without Pau. What little they've played without him makes me think they will be lucky to crack .500 over their remaining games but its been too small a sample size to say that with any confidence.

We saw quite a bit of them without Pau this year - he was physically present but otherwise missing. They're probably better off with just one of Gasol or Howard - then Clark and Jamison know they have contribute.

I know it seems wrong to project them winning at a 64% clip but I just went through the list of games and estimated their odds of losing each game, as a fraction - taking into account the opponent and how they are doing of late, home-away, back2back. Adding up the fractions for the 28 games came out to 9.7, hence 10 losses. I thought that was low, so I went back over the fractions and I saw just as many where I thought I might already be a bit high as ones that looked a tad low.

 

[Phrazbit]

Houston, playing short handed after the Sacramento trade, with a big win tonight over OKC.

I am regretting my stance of it being a bad idea for the Suns to have thrown their own lotto pick (unprotected) into Harden negotiations. He is a legit superstar. The game he had tonight was absurd.

46 points on 19 shots, 8 rebounds, 6 assists. He went 7-8 from 3.

 

[Mainstreet]

Houston, playing short handed after the Sacramento trade, with a big win tonight over OKC.

I am regretting my stance of it being a bad idea for the Suns to have thrown their own lotto pick (unprotected) into Harden negotiations. He is a legit superstar. The game he had tonight was absurd.

46 points on 19 shots, 8 rebounds, 6 assists. He went 7-8 from 3.

And I thought Harden was overrated coming out of ASU so you are not alone.

 

[AzStevenCal]

And I thought Harden was overrated coming out of ASU so you are not alone.

I really liked Harden coming out of college but I never thought he could become a top 5/top 10 kind of player. If he shaves that beard he'd probably gain a quarter step and be unstoppable.

Steve

 

[Phrazbit]

Yeah, I thought he was overrated as a pro-prospect too, and then at OKC I did think he was good, maybe even all-star good, but I never thought he would be this good. He is dragging a Houston squad to the playoffs that looked like a 25-30 win team before the trade.

On a funnier note; part of the reason I underestimated him coming out of college was those baggy t-shirts he always wore under his uniform. Visually it made him look like such a tub.

 

[BC867]

I really liked Harden coming out of college but I never thought he could become a top 5/top 10 kind of player. If he shaves that beard he'd probably gain a quarter step and be unstoppable.

Steve

Maybe Gillette will offer him a million $$$ to shave it off in a commercial.

http://www.nme.com/news/zz-top/64677

Ironically, the ZZ Top drummer, the only one without a beard, is named . . . Frank Beard.

 

[Billy Bob]

I really liked Harden coming out of college but I never thought he could become a top 5/top 10 kind of player. If he shaves that beard he'd probably gain a quarter step and be unstoppable.

Steve

His strength is in his beard, shave it and he's powerless!

 

[Phrazbit]

I think he uses the beard to draw attention away from his teeth. Seriously. He needs to invest in some braces.

 

[Phrazbit]

Rockets (still playing shorthanded) with another big win. This time on the road vs Brooklyn.

The win requirement for the 8th seed appears to be going up. Houston, Utah and Golden State would need to go 15-10, 15-12 and 15-13 respectively to get to 46 wins. That appears to be an attainable mark at this point with the way those teams are playing. For the Lakers to hit that mark they would need to go 20-7, 21-6 to exceed it.

 

[Phrazbit]

Portland is getting a monster shaft job in the final minute vs LA. What a shocker.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Portland is getting a monster shaft job in the final minute vs LA. What a shocker.

yup. tonight would have been the nail in the coffin for the Lakers, but they live to fight another day.

big W's for GS and Houston though and now the Lakers go on the road for two semi-tough games. They lose both of those and they're right back to where they've been all season... 4 games below .500.

 

[Phrazbit]

The Lakers and the Refs combined to take down Portland tonight, but Golden State and Houston fielded some big wins and LA has gained no ground in the chase.

LA's next game is Sunday @ Dallas. A Maverick victory will put them ahead of the Lakers.

 

[Phrazbit]

yup. tonight would have been the nail in the coffin for the Lakers, but they live to fight another day.

big W's for GS and Houston though and now the Lakers go on the road for two semi-tough games. They lose both of those and they're right back to where they've been all season... 4 games below .500.

If LA goes 2-3 over their next 5 (@Dal @Den vsMin vsAtl @OKC) and Houston and the Jazz continue their current pace... the odds will start to get really bad for LA.

 

[Cheesebeef]

If LA goes 2-3 over their next 5 (@Dal @Den vsMin vsAtl @OKC) and Houston and the Jazz continue their current pace... the odds will start to get really bad for LA.

yeah... i figure they go 3-2 at best over that stretch... still leaving them at a game below .500 with 20 games left to go, it doesn't look good. still have a decent shot, but the more Houston and the Jazz string W's together, the less margin for error LA has.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I don't know. They are playing better. This last stretch is where I thought they would struggle. From here to the end the schedule really favors the Lakers. I think they are going to make it in. The real issue is whether Houston and Golden State play well.

Kobe is like the Soup Nazi

NO LOTTO PICK FOR YOU.

 

[Mainstreet]

Andrew Bogut of GS is reportedly out indefinitely with back spasms. This does not help the cause.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8...olden-state-warriors-indefinitely-back-spasms

 

[elindholm]

Andrew Bogut of GS is reportedly out indefinitely with back spasms.

Holy cow, Andrew Bogut is injured? Inconceivable! Given his history, there's no way anyone could have anticipated this.

 

[SirStefan32]

Andrew Bogut of GS is reportedly out indefinitely with back spasms. This does not help the cause.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8...olden-state-warriors-indefinitely-back-spasms

I think Bogut is grossly overrated. This does not hurt them that much, in my opinion. They played much better before he came back.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think Bogut is grossly overrated. This does not hurt them that much, in my opinion. They played much better before he came back.

I think they are better off with Bogut fully healthy and in the lineup every night but I do agree, Bogut in and out of the lineup has hurt them. They are better off without him than the way they've had him.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

If LA goes 2-3 over their next 5 (@Dal @Den vsMin vsAtl @OKC) and Houston and the Jazz continue their current pace... the odds will start to get really bad for LA.

@Dallas is the swing game. LA figures to beat Min and Atl and lose @Okc and @Denver but I've got them and @Dal dead even. Heck, that might be a bit optimistic.

 

[elindholm]

Rockets blow a 17-point lead to the Wizards, ouch.

 

[Phrazbit]

Sometimes the NBA disgusts me. Dallas is getting royally screwed in this game by the refs. Now Sterns goons are throwing out Ts on the Mavs after their horrible calls.