Lakers Draft Pick Watch: Hindenburg or bust thread.

[Phrazbit]

Standings as of the All-Star Break

7th. Utah 30-24
8th. Houston 29-26
-------------
9th Portland 25-28 - 3 GB
10th Lakers 25-29 - 3.5 GB
11th Dallas 23-29 - 4.5 GB

If Houston maintains their current winning percentage then the Lakers would need to go 19-9 over their remaining 28 games to get the 8th seed.

 

[Manu4five]

Hollinger's statistical analysis currently has Houston at 96%, GS 86%, Utah 66%, Lakers 29% and Dallas 15% to make the POs.


I know this is not "the truth" and a prediction with some flaws but it might be interesting that according to this particular statistical analysis, Houston should make it and Utah and Lakers will battle for the 8th seed.

 

[Cheesebeef]

maybe it's just because i've been beaten down by Lakerdom for 16 years since moving to Socal, but I still have a feeling they sneak into the playoffs as the 8 seed. i can just see that young Houston team melting down at season's end.

although... that beat-down last night definitely made me think the dream of the Lakers outside the playoff and us having their pick is possible.

 

[AzStevenCal]

maybe it's just because i've been beaten down by Lakerdom for 16 years since moving to Socal, but I still have a feeling they sneak into the playoffs as the 8 seed. i can just see that young Houston team melting down at season's end.

although... that beat-down last night definitely made me think the dream of the Lakers outside the playoff and us having their pick is possible.

I know what you mean. I see a lot of reasons to close the coffin lid on this team but I won't believe it until I see the corpse. Just in case though I'm standing ready with the first shovelful of dirt. I figure I've earned the right as a Suns fan stranded in LA territory for 27 years.

Steve

 

[SirStefan32]

It is really difficult to predict how this will turn out. There are games where they look like a solid team, and then there are games where they look like crap. Gasol is out, Howard is injured, Kobe is getting old, and Nash is beyond old. Artest and Jamison are looking old and definitely not moving the way they used to.

I can totally see Howard or one of the older guys going down with some sort of injury, and I think it's very likely that Nash, and to lesser degree Kobe just run out of gas.

If Babby/ Hunter are smart, they will make damn sure that Houston wins their games against us. LA's schedule is not an easy one the rest of the year, and I think that Dallas will make a run at the 8th spot, especially if they manage to make a good trade.

EDIT:
It would be just great if LA misses playoffs and they win the lottery.

 

[Chaplin]

EDIT:
It would be just great if LA misses playoffs and they win the lottery.

I can just see Stern's reaction:

Stern: And the #1 pick goes to... the Los Angeles Lakers (jumps up and down excitedly)!!!!!
Adam Silver whispers something in his ear.
Stern: WHAT? IT GOES TO WHOOOO??? Crap.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I can just see Stern's reaction:

Stern: And the #1 pick goes to... the Los Angeles Lakers (jumps up and down excitedly)!!!!!
Adam Silver whispers something in his ear.
Stern: WHAT? IT GOES TO WHOOOO??? Crap.

I don't believe in the NBA conspiracies but LOL anyway.

Steve

 

[BC867]

I don't believe in the NBA conspiracies but LOL anyway.

Steve

I was going to comment that Big Market success is beneficial to the NBA, but L.A. has the Clippers, too, just as N.Y. has the Nets, too. It is not as necessary as it used to be.

I know that the Knicks haven't won it all since their two in the '70's. It always amazed me that with the dominance of Boston, Chicago and L.A. over the years, the NBA didn't use their "influence" to help the Knicks.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Their big guns are going to have to take on more minutes if they have any hope of winning some of their upcoming games. Injuries, and dead legs will become a problem shortly.

At least..... I hope it will. lol

 

[elindholm]

The Lakers will get in by overtaking Golden State.* The Warriors got off to an insanely overachieving start, but are only 8-12 in their last 20. The Lakers are six games behind the Warriors, but if Los Angeles puts together a couple of 8-2 runs while Golden State turns in a pair of 4-6's, then that's the end of that deficit. Then look at the rosters and ask yourself which crew is more likely to keep their heads in close games with a playoff berth at stake.


*Clarification for the rhetoric-impaired: This is a prediction. I do not know it with certainty.

 

[Dback Jon]

The Lakers will get in by overtaking Golden State.* The Warriors got off to an insanely overachieving start, but are only 8-12 in their last 20. The Lakers are six games behind the Warriors, but if Los Angeles puts together a couple of 8-2 runs while Golden State turns in a pair of 4-6's, then that's the end of that deficit. Then look at the rosters and ask yourself which crew is more likely to keep their heads in close games with a playoff berth at stake.


*Clarification for the rhetoric-impaired: This is a prediction. I do not know it with certainty.

Have the Lakers even shown the ability to put together one 8-2 run, let alone two?

 

[elindholm]

Have the Lakers even shown the ability to put together one 8-2 run, let alone two?

Wouldn't you agree that they've underachieved so far?

 

[AzStevenCal]

Wouldn't you agree that they've underachieved so far?

If you look at the team and see 4 or 5 future HOFers, yes, they've underachieved. If you look at the individual players, where they are in their careers and the injuries they are dealing with, then no, I don't think they've underachieved.

AFAIC, Kobe is the only guy on that team capable of playing a full season at an All Star level. Pau can do it for a few weeks at a time but he hasn't been able to sustain that level for a few years now, Howard's recovery from back surgery has left him nowhere near the overrated player he was two years ago, Nash is over the hill that is on the other side of that hill everyone talks about and Artest can barely remember his new name let alone when he was something special.

Earl Clark and the rest of the role players are no better than a below average bench and the team is dealing with a questionable in-season coaching change necessitated by the absurd offense installed by the previous questionable coach.

Steve

 

[Dback Jon]

Wouldn't you agree that they've underachieved so far?

54 games in, you are probably who you are. Howard is not a fit, Nash and Kobe are old.

 

[Cheesebeef]

The Lakers will get in by overtaking Golden State.* The Warriors got off to an insanely overachieving start, but are only 8-12 in their last 20. The Lakers are six games behind the Warriors, but if Los Angeles puts together a couple of 8-2 runs while Golden State turns in a pair of 4-6's, then that's the end of that deficit. Then look at the rosters and ask yourself which crew is more likely to keep their heads in close games with a playoff berth at stake.


*Clarification for the rhetoric-impaired: This is a prediction. I do not know it with certainty.

maybe, but you have to take into consideration with Golden State that they've played 29 roadies to only 23 home games so far, where they are much tougher with a 16-7 record there. 18 home games and 12 road games makes me think they hold on to a playoff spot, even if they keep slipping.

 

[Griffin]

Aren't we getting a little bit overexcited about a pick that, should it actually go to Phoenix, will be no higher than where the Suns themselves have drafted the last few years? Earl Clark, Markieff Morris, Kendal Marshall...

 

[SirStefan32]

Aren't we getting a little bit overexcited about a pick that, should it actually go to Phoenix, will be no higher than where the Suns themselves have drafted the last few years? Earl Clark, Markieff Morris, Kendal Marshall...

Probably, but the chances are better at #13 than #26. Lottery pick is also a much more valuable trade asset, and you never know if you'll get lucky in the lottery and move up.

 

[Sunburn]

Have the Lakers even shown the ability to put together one 8-2 run, let alone two?

They won five in a row in December. They went 6 of 7 in January/February so far.

 

[Sunburn]

Probably, but the chances are better at #13 than #26. Lottery pick is also a much more valuable trade asset, and you never know if you'll get lucky in the lottery and move up.

Yup, I was gonna say trade asset. You package something like the 5th and 14th pick. . .

 

[Phrazbit]

Lets say Golden State continues to struggle goes 14-16 the rest of the way. To overtake them the Lakers would have to go 20-8.

When Pau, Kobe and Nash were clicking for a few games I started to think all of our dreams of Laker failure were collapsing. But with him out the Lakers have looked like a really bad team. They need to play a slower half court game, the dont have the legs or the players to push the pace, but they also have the worst coach on earth to run that kind of system.

Its certainly not over, but in their last 4 games (since losing Pau) they've looked like an even worse team than their record states, they've been obliterated by 2 elite teams and could have/should have lost to two of the worst teams in the league.

My bigger fear for the Lakers making it in is if the Jazz blow up their front court.

 

[Sunburn]

Lets say Golden State continues to struggle goes 14-16 the rest of the way. To overtake them the Lakers would have to go 20-8.

When Pau, Kobe and Nash were clicking for a few games I started to think all of our dreams of Laker failure were collapsing. But with him out the Lakers have looked like a really bad team. They need to play a slower half court game, the dont have the legs or the players to push the pace, but they also have the worst coach on earth to run that kind of system.

Its certainly not over, but in their last 4 games (since losing Pau) they've looked like an even worse team than their record states, they've been obliterated by 2 elite teams and could have/should have lost to two of the worst teams in the league.

My bigger fear for the Lakers making it in is if the Jazz blow up their front court.

Sound observations that I agree with. I have to add, with the constant Dwight drama, I just don't see this as a team that starts coming together down the stretch. I would put my money on getting that lottery pick.

 

[elindholm]

Lets say Golden State continues to struggle goes 14-16 the rest of the way.

They're 8-12 in their last 20. 14-16 would be a pretty significant improvement. 13-17 seems more likely, and 12-18 wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Mainstreet]

maybe, but you have to take into consideration with Golden State that they've played 29 roadies to only 23 home games so far, where they are much tougher with a 16-7 record there. 18 home games and 12 road games makes me think they hold on to a playoff spot, even if they keep slipping.

I like this way of looking at it best.

 

[Phrazbit]

They're 8-12 in their last 20. 14-16 would be a pretty significant improvement. 13-17 seems more likely, and 12-18 wouldn't surprise me.

In their last 20 they have played a brutal chunk of their schedule, and it still included wins over the Clippers and Thunder. The Warriors are a really tough team to beat in their building and they have a home heavy schedule remaining. They're also still easing Bogut into their rotation.

You're basing way too much of their long term expectations on what happened to them during a 4 games in 5 nights road trip that had them playing 3 playoff teams. Even projecting them to have a losing record at all during the next 30 is a pessimistic view.

I'll wager my lunch money that they finish with a comfortable lead over the Lakers.

 

[AzStevenCal]

They're 8-12 in their last 20. 14-16 would be a pretty significant improvement. 13-17 seems more likely, and 12-18 wouldn't surprise me.

Yes but that 8 - 12 was their toughest stretch which included 12 road games. Their only games during that period against non-playoff teams were against the Raptors, Cavs, Mavs, Suns and Blazers. They were also without Bogut for 14 of those games and without Curry for 4 of them. Bogut is sure to miss more games but barring another major injury he's likely to be available for more than he has been. It's very reasonable to expect them to outperform the last 20 game stretch.

Steve