LJ Collier's contract numbers

[kerouac9]

Kyler is likely going to miss a load of games. Th Org likely thinks he's going to miss a load of games. I don;t think the Org or Kyler will be in any rush to get back until everyone is 110% sure his knee can handle it. Why would you push all your chips in for this year knowing that?

I expect them to draft heavily for the trenches this year, probably a CB in there too. Then I expect in 2024 they will sign FA's to fill some of the holes they have remaining but even then probably not huge signings.

The only way you can really compete with a QB earning what Kyler does is through the draft. I expect this team going forward will be built around draft picks and supplemented with vets.

We might get worse yet until we get better. I don't think a Budda trade is off the cards or should be. I think Ertz could go before the trade deadline. I think Hump is a prime candidate to go, possibly not this year but next (depending on the draft). Hollywood should be on the block too.

Who is saying the Cards needed to "push all their chips in for this year"? Literally no one.

The Commies went 8-8-1 starting Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, and Sam Howell. Carolina went 7-10 starting Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker. Five games of P.J. Walker! They traded their best offensive player in October. The Browns went 7-10 with Jacoby Brissett starting 11 games.

Losing more than 10 games in the NFL today is a choice.

I don't understand why people imply that utilizing free agency to fill starting spots with starting-quality players somehow forecloses the possibility of building through the draft. You can do both! You probably should!

 

[BritCard]

Who is saying the Cards needed to "push all their chips in for this year"? Literally no one.

The Commies went 8-8-1 starting Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, and Sam Howell. Carolina went 7-10 starting Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker. Five games of P.J. Walker! They traded their best offensive player in October. The Browns went 7-10 with Jacoby Brissett starting 11 games.

Losing more than 10 games in the NFL today is a choice.

I don't understand why people imply that utilizing free agency to fill starting spots with starting-quality players somehow forecloses the possibility of building through the draft. You can do both! You probably should!

We have limited chips. Doing what you want to do means using all of them.

We only have $17m right now. That wouldn't even cover Allen and Murphy never mind other major additions. If we heavily back weighted them as Denver and Minny have done and made it $7.25m this year and $20.25m next year for Allen and $2.8m this year and $10.25m next year for Murphy. That would leave us only $7m in cap space this year and reduce next years cap space by $30m.

As things stand that would leave us with only $22m in cap space in 2024 dnd only 26 players (plus this year draft class). Even if we move Hop as seems likely it would still only gives us $15m this year and $47m in 2024, which seems like a lot, but as I said. 26 players + this years draft class.

Signing 2 average players like Murphy and Allen would severely limit us.

As things stand right now if we roll over $20m and Hopkins is gone we can have $98m cap space in 2024. If we can trade Ertz before the deadline that can be $110m. We can add $5m more by trading or cutting Conner next year.

All we can do this year is try to improve the depth and the culture. If we trade back in the draft and pick up some some picks, move Nuk for picks and Ertz for 2024 picks we can probably have 20+ draft picks over the next 2 years (or capital to move up) and $110m+ in cap space.

That what I think they are planning and to me it makes sense. In fact it's what we have all been asking for.

I know this doesn't make it easier next year for season ticket holders. They have my sympathy, but short term pain is required.

PS - We should have a special ASFN badge for season ticket holders. We're all dedicated fans but those that pay thousands a year to go to games have something a bit more.

 

[kerouac9]

We couldn’t Re-sign Murphy or Allen this year because it would limit our ability to sign players of Murphy or Allen’s caliber next year if we could convince them to come to a team that was 5-12 two straight years.

Interesting take.

 

[Chopper0080]

Who is saying the Cards needed to "push all their chips in for this year"? Literally no one.

The Commies went 8-8-1 starting Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, and Sam Howell. Carolina went 7-10 starting Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker. Five games of P.J. Walker! They traded their best offensive player in October. The Browns went 7-10 with Jacoby Brissett starting 11 games.

Losing more than 10 games in the NFL today is a choice.

I don't understand why people imply that utilizing free agency to fill starting spots with starting-quality players somehow forecloses the possibility of building through the draft. You can do both! You probably should!

Agree. You can't build a competitive team just in FA or just in the draft or just with UDFAs. You have to use all of the tools available.

You want to re-build an offensive line in a season?
Sign Jawaan Taylor instead of Kelvin Beachum in FA.
Still re-sign Will Hernandez.
Sign Conner McGovern instead of Dennis Daley.
Draft an offensive lineman in round 2.
You can still sign Howerton and Froholdt.

If Marquise Hayes wins the LG spot, you now have 3 starters under 30 with a 2nd round rookie to fill in at OT, OG, or C.

Depth looks like this

Humphries / Jones
Hayes / Smith / Rookie?
McGovern / Smith / Froholdt / Rookie?
Hernandez / Froholdt / Howerton / Rookie?
Taylor / Jones / Rookie

I put Hayes in as a starter because I think he will win the LG spot but essentially you have 4 league average starters and Froholdt, Hayes, Smith, Howerton and a 2nd round rookie battling for one starting spot and future starter spots.

 

[BritCard]

We couldn’t Re-sign Murphy or Allen this year because it would limit our ability to sign players of Murphy or Allen’s caliber next year if we could convince them to come to a team that was 5-12 two straight years.

Interesting take.

Or you know, we could get better players? Instead of 2 very average players.

 

[kerouac9]

Or you know, we could get better players? Instead of 2 very average players.

Who? Can you say who will be available next year? Are we also re-signing Hollywood Brown?

 

[PJ1]

Agree. You can't build a competitive team just in FA or just in the draft or just with UDFAs. You have to use all of the tools available.

You want to re-build an offensive line in a season?
Sign Jawaan Taylor instead of Kelvin Beachum in FA.
Still re-sign Will Hernandez.
Sign Conner McGovern instead of Dennis Daley.
Draft an offensive lineman in round 2.
You can still sign Howerton and Froholdt.

If Marquise Hayes wins the LG spot, you now have 3 starters under 30 with a 2nd round rookie to fill in at OT, OG, or C.

Depth looks like this

Humphries / Jones
Hayes / Smith / Rookie?
McGovern / Smith / Froholdt / Rookie?
Hernandez / Froholdt / Howerton / Rookie?
Taylor / Jones / Rookie

I put Hayes in as a starter because I think he will win the LG spot but essentially you have 4 league average starters and Froholdt, Hayes, Smith, Howerton and a 2nd round rookie battling for one starting spot and future starter spots.

Great post. Well thought out and specific.

 

[Chopper0080]

Great post. Well thought out and specific.

It is frustrating because you would assume you would do this exercise with every position group you deem as a high priority. OL. DL. DB. WR.

 

[BritCard]

Agree. You can't build a competitive team just in FA or just in the draft or just with UDFAs. You have to use all of the tools available.

You want to re-build an offensive line in a season?
Sign Jawaan Taylor instead of Kelvin Beachum in FA.
Still re-sign Will Hernandez.
Sign Conner McGovern instead of Dennis Daley.
Draft an offensive lineman in round 2.
You can still sign Howerton and Froholdt.

If Marquise Hayes wins the LG spot, you now have 3 starters under 30 with a 2nd round rookie to fill in at OT, OG, or C.

Depth looks like this

Humphries / Jones
Hayes / Smith / Rookie?
McGovern / Smith / Froholdt / Rookie?
Hernandez / Froholdt / Howerton / Rookie?
Taylor / Jones / Rookie

I put Hayes in as a starter because I think he will win the LG spot but essentially you have 4 league average starters and Froholdt, Hayes, Smith, Howerton and a 2nd round rookie battling for one starting spot and future starter spots.

Jawaan Taylor that's allowed 28 sacks in 4 years and just got $20m a year?

He's one of the worst FA deals of the year. That would be the worst move the team could make.

 

[Chopper0080]

Jawaan Taylor that's allowed 28 sacks in 4 years and just got $20m a year?

He's one of the worst FA deals of the year. That would be the worst move the team could make.

Ok. I looked, and I am going to respond.

So, one way to look at Taylor is looking at the sacks allowed, but here is where we differ and where I believe you are missing on Taylor like you missed on Humphries. You pay a young player for what he is developing into and not what he currently is.

You say, he has given up 28 sacks in 4 years.

I say, he has decreased his sacks allowed every season he has played, and has been able to do so blocking for bad QBs.

You say it is the worst FA deal.

I say he is a top 5 NFL tackle under 28 and he is getting paid 2 mil more than Colton Miller got.

You say it would be the worst move the Cardinals could make.

I say having a one of the top 5 best OTs under 28 on a contract for the 4 year prime of his career is the best deal the Cardinals could make if they want to build their lines.

 

[Chopper0080]

It is the cycle of a position group.

2023: Humphries and Taylor. (maybe draft a mid round rookie OT)

2024: Humphries and Taylor (maybe draft a higher OT if you don't like the progress of the 2023 rookie)

2025: Taylor and 2023 or 2024 rookie. (Now the contract cost for your starting OTs is a lower average)

2026: Taylor's contract year, and 2023/2024 rookie. (Draft another OT if you are considering letting Taylor go because you like the 23/24 rookie)

2027: If your drafts have worked you are extending your 23/24 rookie, letting Taylor walk, and filling the other OT spot with your 2026 draftee.

 

[kerouac9]

It is the cycle of a position group.

2023: Humphries and Taylor. (maybe draft a mid round rookie OT)

2024: Humphries and Taylor (maybe draft a higher OT if you don't like the progress of the 2023 rookie)

2025: Taylor and 2023 or 2024 rookie. (Now the contract cost for your starting OTs is a lower average)

2026: Taylor's contract year, and 2023/2024 rookie. (Draft another OT if you are considering letting Taylor go because you like the 23/24 rookie)

2027: If your drafts have worked you are extending your 23/24 rookie, letting Taylor walk, and filling the other OT spot with your 2026 draftee.

This is Josh Jones erasure.

 

[BritCard]

Ok. I looked, and I am going to respond.

So, one way to look at Taylor is looking at the sacks allowed, but here is where we differ and where I believe you are missing on Taylor like you missed on Humphries. You pay a young player for what he is developing into and not what he currently is.

You say, he has given up 28 sacks in 4 years.

I say, he has decreased his sacks allowed every season he has played, and has been able to do so blocking for bad QBs.

You say it is the worst FA deal.

I say he is a top 5 NFL tackle under 28 and he is getting paid 2 mil more than Colton Miller got.

You say it would be the worst move the Cardinals could make.

I say having a one of the top 5 best OTs under 28 on a contract for the 4 year prime of his career is the best deal the Cardinals could make if they want to build their lines.

You say he's decreased every year. I say he's decreased from very bad to bad.

You say he's a top 5 tackle under 28. I say he's nowhere close. In fact he's one of the worst tackles under 28.

Wirfs
Slater
Braden Smith
Kolton Miller
Mailata
Sewell
Thomas
Orlando Brown
McGlinchey

All these guys are better. You could flip a coin on McGlinchey but still not top 5.

That completely voids the rest of the post because he's nowhere near top 5.

Kolton Miller is a FAR better tackle than Taylor. After rough start he's been great since 2020.

But let's spend $20m per year on a right tackle that's been terrible in the league so far just because he's young. He's still bad.

 

[Chopper0080]

This is Josh Jones erasure.

Who?

 

[Chopper0080]

You say he's decreased every year. I say he's decreased from very bad to bad.

You say he's a top 5 tackle under 28. I say he's nowhere close. In fact he's one of the worst tackles under 28.

Wirfs
Slater
Braden Smith
Kolton Miller
Mailata
Sewell
Thomas
Orlando Brown
McGlinchey

All these guys are better. You could flip a coin on McGlinchey but still not top 5.

That completely voids the rest of the post because he's nowhere near top 5.

Kolton Miller is a FAR better tackle than Taylor. After rough start he's been great since 2020.

But let's spend $20m per year on a right tackle that's been terrible in the league so far just because he's young. He's still bad.

Let's dissect this a bit.

2022
Kolton Miller with a veteran QB in Carr.
5 penalties allowed. 4 sacks. 1019 snaps.

Jawaan Taylor with a 2nd year QB in Trevor Lawrence.
7 penalties allowed. 5 sacks. 1095 snaps.

There is no part of this that is "FAR better". Even if you prefer Miller, he is 2 years older and only paid 2 mil less so that is only a Zeke Turner or so difference.

Also, the Chiefs let Orlando Brown walk so they could sign Taylor. I trust Andy Reid's evaluation over yours.

Mike McGlinchy 10 penalties, 6 sacks. 1036 snaps.

Braden Smith 10 penalties, 7 sacks. 1066 snaps.

Jordan Mailata 7 penalties, 6 sacks. 1024 snaps.

I am excluding Thomas, Wirfs, Sewell, and Slater because they are on rookie deals and will likely get contracts greater than 20 mil. I don't believe that is arguable.

The stats say you are wrong. All of these players (not on rookie deals) are not significantly better than Taylor despite most being older players. Even if they are the same, I will pay the 2.5 mil difference for Taylor being two years younger on a 4 year deal.

 

[BritCard]

Let's dissect this a bit.

2022
Kolton Miller with a veteran QB in Carr.
5 penalties allowed. 4 sacks. 1019 snaps.

Jawaan Taylor with a 2nd year QB in Trevor Lawrence.
7 penalties allowed. 5 sacks. 1095 snaps.

There is no part of this that is "FAR better". Even if you prefer Miller, he is 2 years older and only paid 2 mil less so that is only a Zeke Turner or so difference.

Also, the Chiefs let Orlando Brown walk so they could sign Taylor. I trust Andy Reid's evaluation over yours.

Mike McGlinchy 10 penalties, 6 sacks. 1036 snaps.

Braden Smith 10 penalties, 7 sacks. 1066 snaps.

Jordan Mailata 7 penalties, 6 sacks. 1024 snaps.

I am excluding Thomas, Wirfs, Sewell, and Slater because they are on rookie deals and will likely get contracts greater than 20 mil. I don't believe that is arguable.

The stats say you are wrong. All of these players (not on rookie deals) are not significantly better than Taylor despite most being older players. Even if they are the same, I will pay the 2.5 mil difference for Taylor being two years younger on a 4 year deal.

Do you read anyone around the league that assesses O line talent?

Imagine thinking Jawaan Taylor is in Jordan Mailata's class is nonsense.

Here's PFN's take on the worst free agent deals so far this year. Jawaan Taylor leads the way with Zach Allen 2nd.

2023 NFL Free Agency Worst Contracts: Jawaan Taylor, Daniel Jones, and Zach Allen Lead the Group

Every year in NFL free agency, there are teams willing to make mistakes. We look at the 2023 NFL free agency worst contracts.

www.profootballnetwork.com

Seth Walder for ESPN on Taylor:

The worst for me is Jawaan Taylor to the Kansas City Chiefs. Taylor is a fine pass-protector, but he's not elite. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence's quick release made Taylor look better than he is last season. And Taylor is a weakness in the run game. If he plays left tackle, he's a downgrade from Orlando Brown Jr., but he's getting more money per year than Brown signed for in Cincinnati.

I could go on.

And while you don't like PFF Jawaan Taylor's best ever season grade was 63.7. Last year he was sub 60. His highest ever pass block grade was last year at 75.9.

Kolton Miller the last 2 years graded over 84 both years. His last 4 years are better than Taylors best ever.

But lets put all that aside. Let's pretend he's good and worth $20m a year to play RT for us. Why would he sign here over the Chiefs?

 

[Chopper0080]

Do you read anyone around the league that assesses O line talent?

Imagine thinking Jawaan Taylor is in Jordan Mailata's class is nonsense.

Here's PFN's take on the worst free agent deals so far this year. Jawaan Taylor leads the way with Zach Allen 2nd.

2023 NFL Free Agency Worst Contracts: Jawaan Taylor, Daniel Jones, and Zach Allen Lead the Group

Every year in NFL free agency, there are teams willing to make mistakes. We look at the 2023 NFL free agency worst contracts.

www.profootballnetwork.com

Seth Walder for ESPN on Taylor:

The worst for me is Jawaan Taylor to the Kansas City Chiefs. Taylor is a fine pass-protector, but he's not elite. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence's quick release made Taylor look better than he is last season. And Taylor is a weakness in the run game. If he plays left tackle, he's a downgrade from Orlando Brown Jr., but he's getting more money per year than Brown signed for in Cincinnati.

I could go on.

And while you don't like PFF Jawaan Taylor's best ever season grade was 63.7. Last year he was sub 60. His highest ever pass block grade was last year at 75.9.

Kolton Miller the last 2 years graded over 84 both years. His last 4 years are better than Taylors best ever.

But lets put all that aside. Let's pretend he's good and worth $20m a year to play RT for us. Why would he sign here over the Chiefs?

You brought up sacks as the negative regarding Jawaan Taylor, not me.

Your comment: Jawaan Taylor that's allowed 28 sacks in 4 years and just got $20m a year?

My response: he has decreased his sacks allowed every season he has played, and has been able to do so blocking for bad QBs.

Your comment: You say he's decreased every year. I say he's decreased from very bad to bad.

At this point, you have chosen to cite sacks as the metric to critique.

You then offered up a list of better players.

I responded with the sacks allowed by those others players you named as better and compared them using sacks, the metric you brought up, and how several of those players were worse.

Now, because your sack metric was proven incorrect, you want to change the evaluation system to opinion based analysis that is 100% subjective. And again, I am going to believe that Andy Reid has a better grasp on what is a quality offensive lineman over PFF and Seth Walder.

Lastly, why would Taylor choose Arizona? Why does someone choose Apple over Google or Meta? That is Monti and Gannon's job to figure out how to recruit. And if they can't, that is their failure. This is why I stated I don't know why teams don't have this thought exercise with every key position. Because if you can't bring in Taylor you move on to the next lineman or to the CB position, or DL/DE. If you can't bring in any quality players, you are not very good at your job. If you hired a talent recruiter at your company and they couldn't bring in any talent, you probably would fire them.

 

[Krangodnzr]

You brought up sacks as the negative regarding Jawaan Taylor, not me.

Your comment: Jawaan Taylor that's allowed 28 sacks in 4 years and just got $20m a year?

My response: he has decreased his sacks allowed every season he has played, and has been able to do so blocking for bad QBs.

Your comment: You say he's decreased every year. I say he's decreased from very bad to bad.

At this point, you have chosen to cite sacks as the metric to critique.

You then offered up a list of better players.

I responded with the sacks allowed by those others players you named as better and compared them using sacks, the metric you brought up, and how several of those players were worse.

Now, because your sack metric was proven incorrect, you want to change the evaluation system to opinion based analysis that is 100% subjective. And again, I am going to believe that Andy Reid has a better grasp on what is a quality offensive lineman over PFF and Seth Walder.

Lastly, why would Taylor choose Arizona? Why does someone choose Apple over Google or Meta? That is Monti and Gannon's job to figure out how to recruit. And if they can't, that is their failure. This is why I stated I don't know why teams don't have this thought exercise with every key position. Because if you can't bring in Taylor you move on to the next lineman or to the CB position, or DL/DE. If you can't bring in any quality players, you are not very good at your job. If you hired a talent recruiter at your company and they couldn't bring in any talent, you probably would fire them.

You think Andy Reid is evaluating free agents? Eh I doubt that.

 

[kerouac9]

You think Andy Reid is evaluating free agents? Eh I doubt that.

$20 million a year free agents and the guys protecting the QB? I'm pretty sure he's going to thumbs up/thumbs down the acquisition. This is a weird take.

 

[football karma]

You want to re-build an offensive line in a season?
Sign Jawaan Taylor instead of Kelvin Beachum in FA.
Still re-sign Will Hernandez.
Sign Conner McGovern instead of Dennis Daley.

I think this is pretty good. Im ok with Beachum, but sure hope the plan is Josh Jones and Beachum compete for the RT spot. In any event -- OT is in a decent spot

With Hernandez back, G is ok.

the C spot is the problem: i hate the idea of going into the draft with the entire league knowing the Cards need to draft a candidate to start, or i guess its Lecitus Smith time.

for me: the offensive line is/ was one solid starting interior offensive lineman added to feel that the FO has a plan -- had they added Ethan Pocic at C -- my outlook on the o line would be brighter

 

[BritCard]

You brought up sacks as the negative regarding Jawaan Taylor, not me.

Your comment: Jawaan Taylor that's allowed 28 sacks in 4 years and just got $20m a year?

My response: he has decreased his sacks allowed every season he has played, and has been able to do so blocking for bad QBs.

Your comment: You say he's decreased every year. I say he's decreased from very bad to bad.

At this point, you have chosen to cite sacks as the metric to critique.

You then offered up a list of better players.

I responded with the sacks allowed by those others players you named as better and compared them using sacks, the metric you brought up, and how several of those players were worse.

Now, because your sack metric was proven incorrect, you want to change the evaluation system to opinion based analysis that is 100% subjective. And again, I am going to believe that Andy Reid has a better grasp on what is a quality offensive lineman over PFF and Seth Walder.

Lastly, why would Taylor choose Arizona? Why does someone choose Apple over Google or Meta? That is Monti and Gannon's job to figure out how to recruit. And if they can't, that is their failure. This is why I stated I don't know why teams don't have this thought exercise with every key position. Because if you can't bring in Taylor you move on to the next lineman or to the CB position, or DL/DE. If you can't bring in any quality players, you are not very good at your job. If you hired a talent recruiter at your company and they couldn't bring in any talent, you probably would fire them.

No, it hasn't proved incorrect. He's been a turnstile his whole career and one less bad season does not make him good. 5 sacks last year is an acceptable number but that doesn't mean he's better than someone who had 6.

Lawrence gets the ball out quickly which help him a tonne.

How exactly would you as GM attract Taylor here over the Chiefs? What could any team possibly do other than offer more money to attract him to them over the Super Bowl champs and perennial contenders?

If your barometer for Monti being good is bringing in below average guys like Taylor on top money deals lets hope he stays in your bad books.

 

[BritCard]

Kelvin Beachum pass blocking grade 2022 - 70 - Total grade 70.6 - Cost $2.5m per year - This is apparently bad business

Jawaan Taylor pass blocking grade 2022 - 75.9 - Total grade 58.7 - Cost $20m per year - This is apparently good business because he's young

No wonder there are so many arguments on here.

Jawaan Taylor is going to get destroyed next year for the Chiefs at LT. He's an average player at RT where he played his whole career. He has 120 snaps ever at LT.

 

[Krangodnzr]

$20 million a year free agents and the guys protecting the QB? I'm pretty sure he's going to thumbs up/thumbs down the acquisition. This is a weird take.

Point went right over your head.

I doubt Andy Reid reviews his 2022 tape extensively. Of course he okays it, but it's probably more of a "I trust your judgement" kind of thing.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Kelvin Beachum pass blocking grade 2022 - 70 - Total grade 70.6 - Cost $2.5m per year - This is apparently bad business

Jawaan Taylor pass blocking grade 2022 - 75.9 - Total grade 58.7 - Cost $20m per year - This is apparently good business because he's young

No wonder there are so many arguments on here.

Jawaan Taylor is going to get destroyed next year for the Chiefs at LT. He's an average player at RT where he played his whole career. He has 120 snaps ever at LT.

Yeah he posted the 37th best win rate among tackles and got paid more than Orlando Brown.

The disparity between pass block ability of LTs and RTs still exists. Sure it's much less than it was in 1995, but a lot of top RTs would struggle at LT.

 

[BritCard]

Yeah he posted the 37th best win rate among tackles and got paid more than Orlando Brown.

The disparity between pass block ability of LTs and RTs still exists. Sure it's much less than it was in 1995, but a lot of top RTs would struggle at LT.

And this is on top of him being the worst run blocking tackle in the league.