Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Well there is so much chatter on the board about Mahomes; I figured I put in my 3 cents worth. In a QB pool where there is little agreement on the best choice, no figure is more polarizing than Mahomes. I don’t buy into you can’t transition from his current offense, but it is challenging. I suspect if you read enough gurus you’ll some who actually say the exact opposite of some of my points. I reviewed every game this year. He doesn’t always exhibits the behaviors I describe, but he shows them often enough to be a valid assessment IMO.
Let’s start with why he excites some people. He has an incredibly strong arm. He is capable of making any throw required even when off balance, under pressure or on the run. His coach says he’s smart. I will respond to that later. He does a decent job of reading defenses and looking off safeties. He executes outstanding play action fakes. Mahomes runs a nice QB draw and he will fight for yardage. On this type of play he shows good patience. He is very athletic and capable of scrambling while keeping his eyes downfield. Mahomes is tough and will play hurt. He is a good, though quiet, leader. He has control of the huddle and doesn’t verbally boast.
Wow, he sounds like one great player, so what’s not to like? It starts with fundamentals. He easily has the weakest basics of all the top QB candidates. He has amazingly poor footwork when dropping back or setting up. He has a major hitch in his throwing path. He has an issue with touch. His ball placement frequently leaves his receivers exposed to big hits. Since he doesn’t follow through properly or step into his throws the ball often sails on crossing routes or screens. He can be careless when pitching the ball or throwing laterally to the sideline. He believes he can consistently throw into double or even triple coverage and succeed. He can be baited by smart defenders. Unlike his running, he seems impatient in the passing game and always looks for the big play. He often fails to check down and take what the defense offers.
When scrambling he fails to set his feet before throwing even when he has time. He doesn’t seem to sense backside pressure. He can freeze under pressure or get happy feet. When scrambling he doesn’t tuck the ball properly. Mahomes seems to have no idea of when to just take the sack, like when preserving a field goal opportunity.
My concern about intellect is simple. He’s known for a long time he wants to play in the NFL. Why has he apparently made little effort to improve his technique? He appears to be one of those guys who has quintessential athletic talent and is willing to go with that.
Here’s how I see it, if he’s coachable (he’s a legacy so that helps), he’s likely at least 2 years from being decent and 3 years from being good. He’ll win some games early he shouldn’t and lose ones he should win. I don’t know that anyone has enough patience for this ride and mostly I worry Mahomes doesn’t have that patience. He’s the gunslinger type and very, very few of those guys have made it. In talking with the people whose opinion I value most, there’s a real concern that if you try to change him he’ll lose that improvisational skill that makes him dangerous, like Manziel. The game may cease to be fun and he may not buy in. I think he goes too early to make me comfortable with choosing him and 13 is way too early. Someone could even take him earlier, but he seems too great a risk when there will be potential Pro Bowlers on the board at 13. I’m fully aware that he could one day be a play-maker, I’m just not willing to bet this much on it.
Let’s start with why he excites some people. He has an incredibly strong arm. He is capable of making any throw required even when off balance, under pressure or on the run. His coach says he’s smart. I will respond to that later. He does a decent job of reading defenses and looking off safeties. He executes outstanding play action fakes. Mahomes runs a nice QB draw and he will fight for yardage. On this type of play he shows good patience. He is very athletic and capable of scrambling while keeping his eyes downfield. Mahomes is tough and will play hurt. He is a good, though quiet, leader. He has control of the huddle and doesn’t verbally boast.
Wow, he sounds like one great player, so what’s not to like? It starts with fundamentals. He easily has the weakest basics of all the top QB candidates. He has amazingly poor footwork when dropping back or setting up. He has a major hitch in his throwing path. He has an issue with touch. His ball placement frequently leaves his receivers exposed to big hits. Since he doesn’t follow through properly or step into his throws the ball often sails on crossing routes or screens. He can be careless when pitching the ball or throwing laterally to the sideline. He believes he can consistently throw into double or even triple coverage and succeed. He can be baited by smart defenders. Unlike his running, he seems impatient in the passing game and always looks for the big play. He often fails to check down and take what the defense offers.
When scrambling he fails to set his feet before throwing even when he has time. He doesn’t seem to sense backside pressure. He can freeze under pressure or get happy feet. When scrambling he doesn’t tuck the ball properly. Mahomes seems to have no idea of when to just take the sack, like when preserving a field goal opportunity.
My concern about intellect is simple. He’s known for a long time he wants to play in the NFL. Why has he apparently made little effort to improve his technique? He appears to be one of those guys who has quintessential athletic talent and is willing to go with that.
Here’s how I see it, if he’s coachable (he’s a legacy so that helps), he’s likely at least 2 years from being decent and 3 years from being good. He’ll win some games early he shouldn’t and lose ones he should win. I don’t know that anyone has enough patience for this ride and mostly I worry Mahomes doesn’t have that patience. He’s the gunslinger type and very, very few of those guys have made it. In talking with the people whose opinion I value most, there’s a real concern that if you try to change him he’ll lose that improvisational skill that makes him dangerous, like Manziel. The game may cease to be fun and he may not buy in. I think he goes too early to make me comfortable with choosing him and 13 is way too early. Someone could even take him earlier, but he seems too great a risk when there will be potential Pro Bowlers on the board at 13. I’m fully aware that he could one day be a play-maker, I’m just not willing to bet this much on it.
