kerouac9
Klowned by Keim
All the talk today is about how the running back situation in the NFL is devalued. It’s a terrible idea to draft running backs in the first round because:
1. They have such short careers
2. There’s more value that you can get in the first round at other positions
That’s the conventional wisdom around the NFL. But let’s look at the Arizona Cardinals as they approach the 2015 NFL draft and consider whether that conventional wisdom fits for them.
Fact: The Arizona Cardinals under Steve Keim have struggled to get value from their first- and second-round selections.
The first two drafts under Steve Keim have yielded guard Jonathan Cooper and safety Deone Bucannon in the first round and linebacker Kevin Minter and tight end Troy Niklas in the second round. These players have combined to start 18 of a possible 100 total regular season and playoff games. None of the four play positions considered “impact” positions in today’s NFL—namely quarterback, pass rusher, or cornerback.
It’s far too early to write off any of these players as busts at this point. Bucannon in particular has shown the potential to be an effective contributor in his limited exposure (65% of all defensive snaps according to NFL Media’s Snap Counts) his rookie season.
Suffice it to say that the Arizona Cardinals may not be currently thinking that an instant impact player at a premier position is a top priority when considering options in the first round.
Fact: The Arizona Cardinals do not place a high priority on retaining players developed in the system.
Much has been made of the roster churn and number of transactions that Steve Keim has made since rising to general manager. What hasn’t been as noted is the number of players that could be core veteran players developed by the Cards as draft picks that have been allowed to leave.
Of the 30 players acquired by the Cardinals via the draft from 2009 to 2012, only 6 remain with the franchise. With the Cards awaiting a decision on exercising a 5th-year option on 2012 first-round wide receiver Michael Floyd, consider that only 3 players drafted in that period received second contracts with the team—and one of them (safety Rashard Johnson) was allowed to test free agency before returning. Productive contributors like NT Dan Williams, TE Jim Dray, and OLB Sam Acho have departed for market deals, leaving holes in the roster.
It’s worth considering whether the Cards have a draft-develop-retain philosophy regarding their personnel, as teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers have shown to substantial success. It’s possible that Keim and his team believe that there isn’t much value in a mid-salary veteran that can’t be found for more experience and more talent for shorter term in the free agent market—players like scratch-and-dent veterans like Lorenzo Alexander, Corey Peters and Sean Weatherspoon.
What if the conventional wisdom doesn’t apply to the Arizona Cardinals? What if Keim and his staff don’t care if their 1st round pick contributes at the level of a 3rd rounder, as long as they contribute? What if they don’t care whether their first-round pick has a 10-year career with the team, because only a select handful of truly franchise players can expect to see a second contract with the team, much less a third?
I haven’t said anything about Todd Gurley as a prospect. I honestly don’t know anything about him. My faith in the front office and scouting department to make the right decision isn’t full, but its enough that I’m only going to doubt they made the right move after the fact. What I will say is that it’s possible that the conventional wisdom regarding the running back position may not apply to the Cards.
The Cards likely feel that they have a window of opportunity right now that isn’t going to last to a second contract for their 2015 first-round pick. The Cards likely feel like they can add more value with a top prospect at a position of less value than they could with the fourth-best premier position player. The Cards likely feel that it’s time to get something out of their top pick.
1. They have such short careers
2. There’s more value that you can get in the first round at other positions
That’s the conventional wisdom around the NFL. But let’s look at the Arizona Cardinals as they approach the 2015 NFL draft and consider whether that conventional wisdom fits for them.
Fact: The Arizona Cardinals under Steve Keim have struggled to get value from their first- and second-round selections.
The first two drafts under Steve Keim have yielded guard Jonathan Cooper and safety Deone Bucannon in the first round and linebacker Kevin Minter and tight end Troy Niklas in the second round. These players have combined to start 18 of a possible 100 total regular season and playoff games. None of the four play positions considered “impact” positions in today’s NFL—namely quarterback, pass rusher, or cornerback.
It’s far too early to write off any of these players as busts at this point. Bucannon in particular has shown the potential to be an effective contributor in his limited exposure (65% of all defensive snaps according to NFL Media’s Snap Counts) his rookie season.
Suffice it to say that the Arizona Cardinals may not be currently thinking that an instant impact player at a premier position is a top priority when considering options in the first round.
Fact: The Arizona Cardinals do not place a high priority on retaining players developed in the system.
Much has been made of the roster churn and number of transactions that Steve Keim has made since rising to general manager. What hasn’t been as noted is the number of players that could be core veteran players developed by the Cards as draft picks that have been allowed to leave.
Of the 30 players acquired by the Cardinals via the draft from 2009 to 2012, only 6 remain with the franchise. With the Cards awaiting a decision on exercising a 5th-year option on 2012 first-round wide receiver Michael Floyd, consider that only 3 players drafted in that period received second contracts with the team—and one of them (safety Rashard Johnson) was allowed to test free agency before returning. Productive contributors like NT Dan Williams, TE Jim Dray, and OLB Sam Acho have departed for market deals, leaving holes in the roster.
It’s worth considering whether the Cards have a draft-develop-retain philosophy regarding their personnel, as teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers have shown to substantial success. It’s possible that Keim and his team believe that there isn’t much value in a mid-salary veteran that can’t be found for more experience and more talent for shorter term in the free agent market—players like scratch-and-dent veterans like Lorenzo Alexander, Corey Peters and Sean Weatherspoon.
What if the conventional wisdom doesn’t apply to the Arizona Cardinals? What if Keim and his staff don’t care if their 1st round pick contributes at the level of a 3rd rounder, as long as they contribute? What if they don’t care whether their first-round pick has a 10-year career with the team, because only a select handful of truly franchise players can expect to see a second contract with the team, much less a third?
I haven’t said anything about Todd Gurley as a prospect. I honestly don’t know anything about him. My faith in the front office and scouting department to make the right decision isn’t full, but its enough that I’m only going to doubt they made the right move after the fact. What I will say is that it’s possible that the conventional wisdom regarding the running back position may not apply to the Cards.
The Cards likely feel that they have a window of opportunity right now that isn’t going to last to a second contract for their 2015 first-round pick. The Cards likely feel like they can add more value with a top prospect at a position of less value than they could with the fourth-best premier position player. The Cards likely feel that it’s time to get something out of their top pick.
