Shaq sets own market value
By Terry Brown
NBA Insider
Tuesday, May 25
The bidding for Shaquille O'Neal, if we are to believe the latest reports, begins at $30 million per season.
Do I hear $31?
"His agent isn't dumb," said NBA salary-cap specialist Larry Coon. "He's one of the sharper guys out there and he knows that it's perfectly feasible for the Lakers to pay Shaq this amount of money and more and not change any of the personnel around him. No matter what amount they pay him, they're going to be over the cap. So that's not going to affect any future acquisitions. It's the luxury tax they have to worry about but Shaq can certainly command this amount."
As ludicrous as these numbers may sound to you and me and the next guy waiting to make the balloon payment on his second mortgage, let's make it even more absurd by stating that the bidding cannot even begin for two more seasons when his contract completes and, at this asking price, there is only one qualified bidder.
"He'll be making about $30 million dollars at the end of his contract," Coon said. "So a team can pay him up to 105 percent of that amount provided they have the cap space."
And considering that the cap is at $43.8 million this year, how many teams do you really think are out there that have only $12.3 million in salary?
You're right. The answer is none.
But before we get too far with the Los Angeles Lakers monopoly, let's put a little more emphasis on Mr. Coon's point.
As just mentioned, the cap this year was at $43.5 million. The Lakers' payroll for this season is at $65.5 million. Even without Shaq on the books, the team is at $39 million, giving the Lakers all of $4.8 million in cap space.
That's it. Enough to sign someone like Michael Olowokandi or two Joel Przybillas or three Jake Tsakalidases.
Cut Shaq's current salary of $26.5 million in half and the Lakers are still $8.4 million over the cap.
Cut his salary by 75 percent, paying the big guy $6.6 million, and the Lakers are still $1.8 million over the cap.
Cut his salary by 90 percent, to $2.6 million, and you've now created $2.2 million in cap space and pissed off one heckuva big fella for the opportunity of signing the likes of DeSagana Diop.
In other words, any reasonable pay cut for Shaquille O'Neal is not going to affect the Lakers' ability to attract future free agents because the Lakers can still only pay them mid-level exceptions because they will still be over the cap.
Shaq knows this.
His agent knows this.
Laker owner Jerry Buss knows this as well, but is hoping inaccurate articles in the local and national press put enough public opinion pressure on Shaq to take a pay cut.
"At some point, these players are only competing against themselves," said Coon. "No other team can even come close to these figures . . . but we have to remember that Dr. Buss isn't anywhere close to being one of the richer owners in the NBA. In fact, he's not even on the Forbes list. While other owners have other income, the Lakers are all he has. The franchise may be worth about $400 million but that's all he's got."
So this is one auction with one article up for bid and only one bidder.
At his current asking price, Shaquille O'Neal will have only one suitor when he's a free agent.
And this is one way to look at it.
Shaq is going to be 32-years-old at the end of this season. That puts him at 34 when his current contract expires and still well within the traditional prime years. But that's also 730 dinners in the future, too, from tonight. So we'll try to guess his output as best we can.
Between the 1999 season and 2001 season, Shaq averaged 28.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. Between the 2002 season and 2004 season, he averaged 25.5 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. Using those ratios, we can guess that after two more seasons, he'll be averaging about 22.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and two blocks per game.
Those are still All-NBA numbers, even league MVP-like should the Lakers ever decide to take the regular season seriously again.
But we've also got to factor in games played.
In 1999, he played in 98 percent of the shortened 50-game schedule.
In 2000, he played in 96 percent of the 82 regular-season games.
In 2001, he played in 90 percent.
Between 2002 and 2004, he played in 67 games each season or 81.7 percent.
By 2007, we can guess that he'll be playing in about 58 games per season or about 71 percent of them, and if you saw his last playoff game on Sunday night then you know we're being generous here.
So if we take those estimated statistical averages and multiply them by games played, we see that Shaq could very well be scoring 1,322 points per season, grabbing 574 rebounds and blocking 116 shots at that time.
And at the asking price of $30 million per season, that equals to about $22,692 per point or $52,264 per board or a whopping $258,620 per blocked shot.
Compare that to today's going prices for the same stats.
Tracy McGrady led the league in scoring and by his numbers, he was paid $6,709 per point (1,878 points at $12.6 million). Kevin Garnett led the league in rebounding and he was paid $24,582 per board (1,139 boards at $28 million). Theo Ratliff led the league in blocked shots and he made $32,899 per swat (307 blocks at $10.1 million).
By these figures, Shaq is way overpaid, often slower up and down the court and sometimes a bit more surly that we like our middle-aged cartoon characters. Let's all say it together. He isn't half the man that he used to be.
But it wasn't too long ago that we were convinced that he was twice as good as anyone else.
So maybe the better question is, do the Lakers want a motivated Shaq at $30 million or do they want the guy shooting 4-for-10 on Sunday night at $20 or $15 or $10? Or even the $4.9 mid-level exception?
Do they load down his contract with incentives and clauses hitched to waist measurements, field goal percentages, team standings and number of jerseys sold?
Can the Lakers pay him his weight in gold bullion on nights he leaves a pile of unworthy centers and power forwards in his wake and then empties the lint out their collective pockets when he plays Oliver Miller to a standstill?
"There are a limited amount of things you can do here," Coon said. "The league will classify these incentives as either likely to happen or unlikely to happen. And if he's ever done them in the past then they're likely and they're going to count against the cap anyways."
Score 61 in a game before? Check.
Grab 28 rebounds in a single contest? Check.
Block 15 shots in one night's work? Check.
Win three Finals MVP awards while leading your team to three consecutive championships? Check.
But while we're at it, here's another game.
What can we get for $30 million in an NBA open market?
Well, for starters, Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan combined made $26.1 million this year in salary.
How about an entirely new front line in Elton Brand, Peja Stojakovic and Erick Dampier. That's 56.5 points, 28.6 rebounds and 4.1 blocks per game plus 240 3-pointes on the season for $24.9 million.
How about Tracy McGrady and Jermaine O'Neal, average age of 25, for about $26.3 million.
Or how about another front line of Shawn Marion, Paul Pierce and Ben Wallace. That's 51.5 points, 28.2 rebounds and 4.9 blocks per game plus 205 3-pointers and some tenacious defense for $26.8 million.
Sure, the Lakers are perfectly justified in not paying Shaquille O'Neal $30 million plus per season.
But then, of course, they'd have to play against him.
Do I hear $32 million?
By Terry Brown
NBA Insider
Tuesday, May 25
The bidding for Shaquille O'Neal, if we are to believe the latest reports, begins at $30 million per season.
Do I hear $31?
"His agent isn't dumb," said NBA salary-cap specialist Larry Coon. "He's one of the sharper guys out there and he knows that it's perfectly feasible for the Lakers to pay Shaq this amount of money and more and not change any of the personnel around him. No matter what amount they pay him, they're going to be over the cap. So that's not going to affect any future acquisitions. It's the luxury tax they have to worry about but Shaq can certainly command this amount."
As ludicrous as these numbers may sound to you and me and the next guy waiting to make the balloon payment on his second mortgage, let's make it even more absurd by stating that the bidding cannot even begin for two more seasons when his contract completes and, at this asking price, there is only one qualified bidder.
"He'll be making about $30 million dollars at the end of his contract," Coon said. "So a team can pay him up to 105 percent of that amount provided they have the cap space."
And considering that the cap is at $43.8 million this year, how many teams do you really think are out there that have only $12.3 million in salary?
You're right. The answer is none.
But before we get too far with the Los Angeles Lakers monopoly, let's put a little more emphasis on Mr. Coon's point.
As just mentioned, the cap this year was at $43.5 million. The Lakers' payroll for this season is at $65.5 million. Even without Shaq on the books, the team is at $39 million, giving the Lakers all of $4.8 million in cap space.
That's it. Enough to sign someone like Michael Olowokandi or two Joel Przybillas or three Jake Tsakalidases.
Cut Shaq's current salary of $26.5 million in half and the Lakers are still $8.4 million over the cap.
Cut his salary by 75 percent, paying the big guy $6.6 million, and the Lakers are still $1.8 million over the cap.
Cut his salary by 90 percent, to $2.6 million, and you've now created $2.2 million in cap space and pissed off one heckuva big fella for the opportunity of signing the likes of DeSagana Diop.
In other words, any reasonable pay cut for Shaquille O'Neal is not going to affect the Lakers' ability to attract future free agents because the Lakers can still only pay them mid-level exceptions because they will still be over the cap.
Shaq knows this.
His agent knows this.
Laker owner Jerry Buss knows this as well, but is hoping inaccurate articles in the local and national press put enough public opinion pressure on Shaq to take a pay cut.
"At some point, these players are only competing against themselves," said Coon. "No other team can even come close to these figures . . . but we have to remember that Dr. Buss isn't anywhere close to being one of the richer owners in the NBA. In fact, he's not even on the Forbes list. While other owners have other income, the Lakers are all he has. The franchise may be worth about $400 million but that's all he's got."
So this is one auction with one article up for bid and only one bidder.
At his current asking price, Shaquille O'Neal will have only one suitor when he's a free agent.
And this is one way to look at it.
Shaq is going to be 32-years-old at the end of this season. That puts him at 34 when his current contract expires and still well within the traditional prime years. But that's also 730 dinners in the future, too, from tonight. So we'll try to guess his output as best we can.
Between the 1999 season and 2001 season, Shaq averaged 28.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. Between the 2002 season and 2004 season, he averaged 25.5 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. Using those ratios, we can guess that after two more seasons, he'll be averaging about 22.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and two blocks per game.
Those are still All-NBA numbers, even league MVP-like should the Lakers ever decide to take the regular season seriously again.
But we've also got to factor in games played.
In 1999, he played in 98 percent of the shortened 50-game schedule.
In 2000, he played in 96 percent of the 82 regular-season games.
In 2001, he played in 90 percent.
Between 2002 and 2004, he played in 67 games each season or 81.7 percent.
By 2007, we can guess that he'll be playing in about 58 games per season or about 71 percent of them, and if you saw his last playoff game on Sunday night then you know we're being generous here.
So if we take those estimated statistical averages and multiply them by games played, we see that Shaq could very well be scoring 1,322 points per season, grabbing 574 rebounds and blocking 116 shots at that time.
And at the asking price of $30 million per season, that equals to about $22,692 per point or $52,264 per board or a whopping $258,620 per blocked shot.
Compare that to today's going prices for the same stats.
Tracy McGrady led the league in scoring and by his numbers, he was paid $6,709 per point (1,878 points at $12.6 million). Kevin Garnett led the league in rebounding and he was paid $24,582 per board (1,139 boards at $28 million). Theo Ratliff led the league in blocked shots and he made $32,899 per swat (307 blocks at $10.1 million).
By these figures, Shaq is way overpaid, often slower up and down the court and sometimes a bit more surly that we like our middle-aged cartoon characters. Let's all say it together. He isn't half the man that he used to be.
But it wasn't too long ago that we were convinced that he was twice as good as anyone else.
So maybe the better question is, do the Lakers want a motivated Shaq at $30 million or do they want the guy shooting 4-for-10 on Sunday night at $20 or $15 or $10? Or even the $4.9 mid-level exception?
Do they load down his contract with incentives and clauses hitched to waist measurements, field goal percentages, team standings and number of jerseys sold?
Can the Lakers pay him his weight in gold bullion on nights he leaves a pile of unworthy centers and power forwards in his wake and then empties the lint out their collective pockets when he plays Oliver Miller to a standstill?
"There are a limited amount of things you can do here," Coon said. "The league will classify these incentives as either likely to happen or unlikely to happen. And if he's ever done them in the past then they're likely and they're going to count against the cap anyways."
Score 61 in a game before? Check.
Grab 28 rebounds in a single contest? Check.
Block 15 shots in one night's work? Check.
Win three Finals MVP awards while leading your team to three consecutive championships? Check.
But while we're at it, here's another game.
What can we get for $30 million in an NBA open market?
Well, for starters, Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan combined made $26.1 million this year in salary.
How about an entirely new front line in Elton Brand, Peja Stojakovic and Erick Dampier. That's 56.5 points, 28.6 rebounds and 4.1 blocks per game plus 240 3-pointes on the season for $24.9 million.
How about Tracy McGrady and Jermaine O'Neal, average age of 25, for about $26.3 million.
Or how about another front line of Shawn Marion, Paul Pierce and Ben Wallace. That's 51.5 points, 28.2 rebounds and 4.9 blocks per game plus 205 3-pointers and some tenacious defense for $26.8 million.
Sure, the Lakers are perfectly justified in not paying Shaquille O'Neal $30 million plus per season.
But then, of course, they'd have to play against him.
Do I hear $32 million?
