Meat to the Wolves: My Preliminary QB list for the draft

Vacard

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I subscribe to the "if they werent accurate in college, they wont be in the pros" rule

Jackson and Allen are eliminated from round 1 for me
I see Lamar Jackson as a taller Tyrod Taylor...Taylor threw below 60 percent in college...but was behind Flacco for four years and when he finally started the season, he threw about 60 percent. We won’t give Jackson 4 years and we don’t have four years to wait.
 

BW52

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I see Lamar Jackson as a taller Tyrod Taylor...Taylor threw below 60 percent in college...but was behind Flacco for four years and when he finally started the season, he threw about 60 percent. We won’t give Jackson 4 years and we don’t have four years to wait.
Lamar Jackson is a hell of a lot more talented than Tyrod Taylor.Jackson has a great arm and great athletic ability to go with being a great character person with a tremendous work ethic.The only knock on him is his so-called skinny frame.The kid is tough as they come and with all that talent i would be surprised to him drop in the draft.But then some people would rather have a big lumbering lummox who can`t drop the ball and hit the ground because he fits the NFL prototype.Every QB of the top 6 has some flaws and some great traits.Rosen supposedly has a attitude problem.Darnold is a turnover machine.Josh Allen was under 60% accuracy in a weak conference ( but he has the size).Baker Mayfield is a too short and has only a average arm.Mason Rudolph put up great stats in a lousy defensive lconference and is a shotgun QB.Jackson is too skinny and was under 60% accuracy (even if his receivers dropped a incredible 12% rate.So people can overanalyze all they want.I know what i saw from 3 years of Lamar Jackson and i would be comfortable with AZ picking him to be QBOF.There is something to be said for every one of the top 6 QBs.We just have to trust Wilks and SK to find the right one.
 

cardpa

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Nice write up Rugby although I don't agree with a few of your positions. What we all know will happen is you are going to have to rewrite it after the combines and these guys switch positions like musical chairs. We will see surprises and disappointments at the combines. Some of these guys will go up and down like a yo-yo. I just don't see Jackson as a NFL QB. I see him as another RGIII. He will get hurt and hurt badly in a game.
 

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Nice write up Rugby although I don't agree with a few of your positions. What we all know will happen is you are going to have to rewrite it after the combines and these guys switch positions like musical chairs. We will see surprises and disappointments at the combines. Some of these guys will go up and down like a yo-yo. I just don't see Jackson as a NFL QB. I see him as another RGIII. He will get hurt and hurt badly in a game.
He's worth the gamble. You won't have to give up two years worth of picks like Washington did either. He's a smart guy, he knows how to play. He needs to be able to look off safeties, and they'd work with him on that. He'll also extend plays when needed and be a red zone nightmare for defenses.
 

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Gambo insists ARZ feels there are 5 first round QB's so your list may reflect their big board.

I am not at all trying to kill the messenger, Overseascardfan, and thank you for sharing. I just think it has to be one of those wild rumors where the reporter makes sure that, if what he says this early actually happens, he can say afterwards that his reporting was right all along. I mean, if the Cardinals, nearly three months out, really do have a feel for how the draft will unfold, then they are almost certainly in big trouble. I would hope that they actually do put some stock into Pro Days, the Combine, meeting with players, watching a lot of tape and everything else that is left in the draft process.
 

Solar7

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I posed a question as to whether or not one would trade any (or all) of the last five #1 picks by the Cards to move up to take a favorite QB in the draft. The reason I listed 5 is to come up with the minimum points in a draft value chart. Because Cards have drafted in the lower end of the drafts based on their average or slightly higher finish, it would take several draft picks to jump into the top of the draft.

The basis of the question was the mediocre results that SK has been getting with his 1st round picks. If his success rate with 1st rounders continues as it has, why not trade a basketful of picks---SK is not hitting many homeruns with those picks anyway. It is not my first instinct to trade picks but it is something that Cards may have to do.

As to trading for Sam Bradford back in 2010---Bradford came into the draft with injury issues to his shoulder---and the injuries have kept adding up during his career. He went to the Rams and QB-killer HC Fisher and an annual change of OC. Bradford still has the arm---see his work with the Vikes in 2016---but is made of china---see his lack of time healthy in 2017.

Given that the Cards were coming off Warner's retirement in 2009, we went into 2010 with Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton. Our big QB trade that year was for Skelton: Apr 24, 2010: Cardinals traded Bryant McFadden and 2010 6th round pick (195th overall, Antonio Brown) to Steelers for 2010 5th round pick (155th overall, John Skelton).

The issue is the QB situation and how to solve it. Given the disaster that followed for the Cards by Whiz-Graves not being able to solve the QB-puzzle---would you have traded for Bradford to avoid the Anderson-Hall-Skelton fiasco? Yes, it would have cost us Peterson the next year plus a whole basketful of other picks. . . but that is the price of business when it comes to finding a QB.

It also disingenuous to make a call based on hindsight into what happened after draft calls and trades were made. We are all super GM when we have the luxury of looking back. So, a trade for Bradford back when that was on the board would have been a definite possibility . . . the same way we have to now look at the upcoming draft and how much the Cards should put down before rolling the dice.
Lots of stuff here... but the only reason I went with Peterson is because he's one of the best examples of a top ten pick we would have lost moving up for a QB. Sure, it's using hindsight, but you're using hindsight in asking if you'd replace multiple mediocre later first picks for a franchise QB. Of course we would. But the truth of the matter is that a rookie QB probably isn't going to immediately make us competitive, and that we'd have a very good chance of drafting higher than we are this year, and missing out on some very good players.

Bradford was seen as a pretty sure thing at the time and then has shown to be made out of glass in the NFL.

Lastly - if you think SK is so bad at the first round of the draft that the next 5 years of picks are going to be bad, what makes you think he's going to do anything but pick the wrong QB if he moves up?
 

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Lots of stuff here... but the only reason I went with Peterson is because he's one of the best examples of a top ten pick we would have lost moving up for a QB. Sure, it's using hindsight, but you're using hindsight in asking if you'd replace multiple mediocre later first picks for a franchise QB. Of course we would. But the truth of the matter is that a rookie QB probably isn't going to immediately make us competitive, and that we'd have a very good chance of drafting higher than we are this year, and missing out on some very good players.

Bradford was seen as a pretty sure thing at the time and then has shown to be made out of glass in the NFL.

Lastly - if you think SK is so bad at the first round of the draft that the next 5 years of picks are going to be bad, what makes you think he's going to do anything but pick the wrong QB if he moves up?

Here's the situation I proposed:

How many of the following players would you be willing to trade for the draft spot to select your favorite QB from RugbyMuffin's list?:

Hasson Reddick, Nkemdiche, DJ Hump, DBuc, JCooper (if he were still on the team)


How is trading current players to move up to get your choice of QB draftee in the upcoming draft hindsight??? You know what you got so far with the 5 draft choices and you don't know what you are going to get with a rook QB in this draft. How is any of that hindsight????

I never said that a rookie QB was going to be a franchise QB or that the one selected after trading the five players was even going to be any good.

I made that same point regarding Bradford regarding his pre-draft value and his injury-riddled career since.

Unless SK is a member of this forum, I didn't pose the trade idea to him---I proposed it to the forum. SK is not the one to make the choice of QB on this forum after we trade off his last 5 #1 draft picks. After all, we are all smarter than SK when it comes to draft choices. LOL.
 
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Solar7

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Here's the situation I proposed:

How many of the following players would you be willing to trade for the draft spot to select your favorite QB from RugbyMuffin's list?:

Hasson Reddick, Nkemdiche, DJ Hump, DBuc, JCooper (if he were still on the team)


How is trading current players to move up to get your choice of QB draftee in the upcoming draft hindsight??? You know what you got so far with the 5 draft choices and you don't know what you are going to get with a rook QB in this draft. How is any of that hindsight????

I never said that a rookie QB was going to be a franchise QB or that the one selected after trading the five players was even going to be any good.

I made that same point regarding Bradford regarding his pre-draft value and his injury-riddled career since.

Unless SK is a member of this forum, I didn't pose the trade idea to him---I proposed it to the forum. SK is not the one to make the choice of QB on this forum after we trade off his last 5 #1 draft picks. After all, we are all smarter than SK when it comes to draft choices. LOL.

The implication of that question was clearly "would you trade the last five 1st rounders for a QB." Let's not pretend you're actually implying we should somehow reacquire Cooper and add him in to make a trade up for a QB. You're saying "let's trade future picks because the past picks were bad and therefore future picks will have less worth to us than a QB."

The implication with trading up for anyone's favorite QB here is that they believe that the player is going to be the QBOTF. I doubt anyone here is saying they want to trade up into the top 3 to get a player like Andy Dalton.
 

GimmedaBall

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So, which of the past five #1 picks by the Cards are you willing to trade for a QB of your choice in the list compiled by the OP?

If you answer 'None' I'd anticipate that you are someone happy with SK's draft history and unwilling to barter away future draft picks.

If you answer 'One, Two, Three' I'd anticipate that you are someone slightly unhappy-to-unhappy with SK's draft and might be amendable to trading future picks to move up in the draft.

If you answer '5' I'd anticipate that you are very unhappy with SK's 1st round draft history and probably someone likely to trade a basketful of picks for a FQB.

What argument are you trying to win by restating my second post on the issue where I stated that I am not prone to trading away picks but given SK's history, why not?? I already know what I put forward as my point so you do not need to feed it back as if you have unearthed some gem of a debate point.

You blew right past my reply to your question/issue of 'hindsight.'

Don't you have any solid walls in your house that you can run into and fall down over and over?
 
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RugbyMuffin

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Rugbymuffin,

Great list. Thanks for sharing your extensive rating.

Anybody in your top 5 that would be worth it in draft picks (say the next 3 1st round picks) for the Cards to move up into rounds 1-10 to select?

Which QB do you see falling to the Cards if they stay put at #15.

Which QB do you think can come in and be an immediate starter?


I think the Cardinals need to stand pat, and keep draft picks.

Every QB has warts in this list, it matters on how you want to play football.

I think there is no doubt, the Cardinals want to be a defensive team.

I think Lamar Jackson is the best fit for the Cardinals. Good arm, and has a very special potential to "make a play".

If the Cardinals want to make thier living running the ball and playing great defense then, a QB that can extend a play or in Jackson's case, make a big play with his feet, I think it just fits well. You add that Mike McCoy has successfully come up with offenses for more "limited" QB's, you would think/hope he would be able to come up with an offense that Jackson could do enough to win games.

If the Cardinals stay at 15, I think they can get a QB that will fit there needs for the future.

Asfor a bridge QB? Call me crazy, but I think there is a real possibility of Kurt Cousins going to the Jets, and, just connecting dots here......Bowles-McCown-Fitz

Of course this is all wild speculation on my part, lol.


I think New Orleans is a team to be worried about jumping in front of us if someone like Mayfield is on the board. One 6ft QB in Brees mentoring another in Mayfield. So, which teams do you think the Cards need to be worried about in terms of jumping ahead of us?

That is a subjective situation. Are the Cardinals "worried" or will they just draft based on the situation that eventually come them on draft day.

I will say this, the Cardinals do talk about how much talent they have on the team, and if they truly believe in what they say, I would be surprised, but not shocked if they gave up a lot of resources for a QB in this draft that they feel is far, and away the best QB in the draft, and worth that "price" so to speak.

I am a big believer in that it is not where you draft, it is who you draft. The 15th spot in the draft, I feel, is a very opportunistic. You have 1/2 the league that is drafting at the top of the draft for a reason, and they may reach for a couple players, leaving a great opportunity to get players that slide down the draft before the back 1/2 of the round comes around, the teams, that are drafting in the back 1/2 of the draft for a reason come and take those sliding picks. If the Cardinals draft team knows what they are doing they should come out of this draft with some good players, let alone a QB.

But in the end, it will be WHO they draft that makes the draft. They can have the opportunity there in front of them to choose a great player, but will they.


Where do you draw the line between 'Sure Starter,' 'Career Backup' and 'Camp Arm' in your list.

No idea.

The translation from college to the pros is too drastic. It matters on the system, the QB's work ethic, the ability to adapt to the pro game, and so many other factors.

Prime example - How is someone supposed to know if Jimmy Garoppolo, 2nd round pick, in 2014, from Eastern Illinois is going to be a starter quality QB in the NFL ?

All you can do is look at some videos, do some reading, and see who has potential. For example, in Lamar Jackson, I see a QB, with a good arm, and great athleticism, no "game changing" athleticism. Does that translate ? I dunno, but it seems like the best fit/change/probability to work in my very humble opinion.
 
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RugbyMuffin

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I get the feeling that I'm the only one not enamored of Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold. They get the love, they get the hype, but I'm hoping they're gone by the time the Cardinals pick.

I like Sam Darnold better than Rosen, but this year's regression, so to speak for Darnold gives one a pause.

Are they good enough to bet the farm on is the question for the Cardinals. I personally do not think so.
 
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RugbyMuffin

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I just don't see Jackson as a NFL QB. I see him as another RGIII. He will get hurt and hurt badly in a game.


That is a very valid argument, and my only counter argument, is a lot of QBs get hurt these days. Why pass up on a QB for the sake of injury when the guy you draft because he is deemed "less injury prone" can get hurt just as easy, IMO.

Again, it is a point of good debate, and there is no real solid yes/no to it.
 
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RugbyMuffin

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If you answer 'None' I'd anticipate that you are someone happy with SK's draft history and unwilling to barter away future draft picks.

Whether happy or unhappy with Keim and company, they are the ones that are going to make the pick.

What one wants to happen, and what does happen are two different questions.

Who knows, the Cardinals could draft Mason Rudolph, or draft some wide receiver out of East North Alabama of North Dakota State Tech.

The Cardinals are a bit of a wild card when it comes to the draft, honestly. They have chosen some very very "weird" players in the drafts over the years. Guys like DJ Humphries, and Haason Reddick were not even on the radar till a month before the draft, so you never know with the Cardinals.

If I had things my way we would have had:

- Dont'a Hightower (2012)
- Chance Warmack (2013)
- Teddy Bridgewater (2014)
- Eric Hendrick (2015)
- A'Shawn Robinson (2016)
- Malik Hooker (2017)

Last time I was in line with what the Cardinals ended up drafting was Patrick Peterson.
 

Solar7

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So, which of the past five #1 picks by the Cards are you willing to trade for a QB of your choice in the list compiled by the OP?

If you answer 'None' I'd anticipate that you are someone happy with SK's draft history and unwilling to barter away future draft picks.

If you answer 'One, Two, Three' I'd anticipate that you are someone slightly unhappy-to-unhappy with SK's draft and might be amendable to trading future picks to move up in the draft.

If you answer '5' I'd anticipate that you are very unhappy with SK's 1st round draft history and probably someone likely to trade a basketful of picks for a FQB.

What argument are you trying to win by restating my second post on the issue where I stated that I am not prone to trading away picks but given SK's history, why not?? I already know what I put forward as my point so you do not need to feed it back as if you have unearthed some gem of a debate point.

You blew right past my reply to your question/issue of 'hindsight.'

Don't you have any solid walls in your house that you can run into and fall down over and over?
I did answer your question about hindsight, by pointing out that your argument is hindsight. You're assuming that Keim is going to keep drafting poor to mediocre players, by asking which of them we'd trade away. That's hindsight in knowing they're not All-Pro players. But the fact is, we don't know what the future is going to bring. If I knew we'd have picks in the 20s for the next three years, I might trade them away. However, I don't think that to be the case, I think if we make a rookie the unquestioned starter, he is going to struggle and we are going to have a series of top ten picks, that will now be sitting with another team.

Again, if you think every single one of Keim's picks are worthless, then why do you assume he is going to pick the right QB?
 

cardpa

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That is a very valid argument, and my only counter argument, is a lot of QBs get hurt these days. Why pass up on a QB for the sake of injury when the guy you draft because he is deemed "less injury prone" can get hurt just as easy, IMO.

Again, it is a point of good debate, and there is no real solid yes/no to it.

Good counter point Rugby. It's a gamble no matter who is behind center. I guess my only point to this is a bigger guy like say Palmer for example took a lot of beatings over the years and still was able to have a long career and be productive. A guy like Jackson I fear will get broken so often, his career will be short and in five years the team will be looking for another QB. One can argue that Brees isn't big but has been around a long time, however he was never really a QB who ran from the pocket often and has a great sense in the pocket when it comes to presure. It's a dilemma teams have to weigh when making a decision like this and of course the offense they are in is certainly a factor.
 

Solar7

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That is a very valid argument, and my only counter argument, is a lot of QBs get hurt these days. Why pass up on a QB for the sake of injury when the guy you draft because he is deemed "less injury prone" can get hurt just as easy, IMO.

Again, it is a point of good debate, and there is no real solid yes/no to it.
Oh yeah, I wanted to reply here too... running QBs don't last long in this league. They expose themselves to a lot more injury than a pocket passer. I get the fear about Lamar Jackson, because one bad play or roll up and a major dimension of his game is gone. Cam Newton is really the only guy I can think of recently that has held up to the beating.
 

cardpa

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Whether happy or unhappy with Keim and company, they are the ones that are going to make the pick.

What one wants to happen, and what does happen are two different questions.

Who knows, the Cardinals could draft Mason Rudolph, or draft some wide receiver out of East North Alabama of North Dakota State Tech.

The Cardinals are a bit of a wild card when it comes to the draft, honestly. They have chosen some very very "weird" players in the drafts over the years. Guys like DJ Humphries, and Haason Reddick were not even on the radar till a month before the draft, so you never know with the Cardinals.

If I had things my way we would have had:

- Dont'a Hightower (2012)
- Chance Warmack (2013)
- Teddy Bridgewater (2014)
- Eric Hendrick (2015)
- A'Shawn Robinson (2016)
- Malik Hooker (2017)

Last time I was in line with what the Cardinals ended up drafting was Patrick Peterson.

You bring up an interesting point. It begs the question of what was it that made the team suddenly fall in love with these guys when they weren't a on the radar earlier? Is this the weak point with Keim that he sees or senses something that really isn't there and suddenly goes gaga over these guys or was it Arians who went gaga. What will be interesting is will Keim continue to try and get players the coach wants or was that an exception for Arians? I expect to see a different draft this year and I hope it's for the better. If the Cardinals sign a vet QB before the draft or swing a trade on draft day that doesn't involve the 1st round pick then I hope to see an immediate starter picked at #15. I could then see them taking a swing for a QB in the second or third round.
 

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Russell Wilson is smallish, a running scrambling QB and he has not missed a game IIRC. Rugby basically described the Seahawks when describing what he thinks the FO wants to shape this team into. Again, that's a great D with a run based offense and a QB who can make plays with his feet. That's a good formula and I would be happy if that is the direction we are going.
 

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Honestly, I have no freaking idea what Keim is going to do in the draft and have not had a clear grasp of his drafting since he has become GM. I am not saying he is bad or good in this statement but only I have no clue what he is going to do. You got me which QB he might like and even if he will pull the trigger if the guy is then there. There is something about being impulsive which can lead to bad drafts but there is also something about being too resolved to a value chart which becomes outdated with new evaluations of players in a few months which I sometimes feel Keim does
 
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oaken1

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54.0% 1234yds 8TD's 6INT's .. 104Rush 617yds 5.9avg 8TD's 6 feet tall


66.1% 2854yds 30TD's 7INT's ... 264Rush 1473YDS 5.6AVG 20TD's 6'5" Tall


59.1% 3660YDS 27TD's 10INT's .....232Rush 1601YDS 6.9AVG 18TD's 6'3" Tall



Three "running" QB's... The first two were selected #1 overall in the NFL draft.... the third is Lamar Jackson.... the listed stat line is each guys final year in college...

on top of those stats lets look at attempts.... First QB, Michael Vick...161 pass attempts with a 7.7 Y/A

second QB Cam Newton with 280 attempts at 10.2 Y/A


Third QB Lamar Jackson with 430 attempts at 8.5 Y/A


what the stats show is that both Cam and Lamar were throwing further downfield than Vick... but it also shows that Lamar was throwing a hell of a lot more than either Cam or Vick

The biggest knock on Lamar is level of competition...when he played against top schools his stats dipped....Vick faced actually less competition while Cam faced top teams almost every week.
But one has to keep in mind that it wasnt just Lamar facing top competition..it was his entire team.... how many Louisville RB's are going high in the draft?? How many olinemen?
The thing about facing top competition is usually you also have a top team...like Cam had at Auburn..
The Cardinals(az) are an nfl team who just made a super bowl run a few years ago and the past two years we have seen what happens when an oline is overwhelmed...
I think the biggest issue in the NFL for Lamar will be the speed of the game... he is a better passer than Vick and he is a better runner than Cam... but Vick produced with his feet for a few years while he learned to be a pocket passer...and so did Cam...in honesty Cam has always been pass first he just didnt wait too long for guys to get open.

with some coaching to teach him to use his legs just to extend a play, buy some time...and also to go ahead and take the dump off pass... Jackson can be a very good pro QB... his completion percentage will go way up if he just takes the relief pass instead of always looking to throw 20 yards downfield.
as far as draft goes... one might think if Mike Vick was a #1 overall pick then why not Lamar Jackson? But the game has changed and Mike Vick would not be a top five pick in this years draft.... Cam would still be a top three pick though...
Lamar is a conundrum... but I think when you look at the history of QB's in the draft he is worthy of the #15 pick in this draft...and that is even before you consider his WR's 12% drop rate..
when you also consider he has none of the "alleged" character issues it makes it even easier
 

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Mason Rudolph is going to go earlier than most people think. Dude has an absolute cannon for an arm.
I tend to agree and he's the one I'm looking at for the Cards at #15. Once Cousins lands we'll have a better idea of the affect on the draft. This has the makings of a crazy draft because there are so many quality QBs available.

Will Indy trade down?
If the Jets land Cousins would they trade down for a team wanting to trade up for a QB?

Gonna be fun.

My thoughts how the teams sit.

Cleveland - Yes, need a QB and could trade this pick
NY Giants - Don't need a QB, but should draft one
Indy - Don't need a QB, but could trade down
Cleveland - Yes, need a QB and could trade this pick
Denver - need a QB and in a good spot to trade either direction
NY Jets - need a QB and in a good spot to trade either direction

Now it starts getting interesting.

TB - are they sold on Winston? Probably. I don't see them drafting a QB this early.
Chicago - Don't need a QB
SF - Don't need a QB
Oakland - Don't need a QB
Miami - They need a QB and the Cards might need to jump ahead of them.
Cincy - Don't need a QB
Washington - Don't need a QB
GB - Don't need a QB
Cardinals - duh

Below the Cards are maybe 3-4 teams who could look at moving up.

Baltimore might look at a QB, but I don't think they have the resources to jump to the top 10; they don't even have a first rounder this year.

Pitt and Buffalo could look at moving up, though I doubt Pitt would move up far enough. Buffalo could package their two pick to jump the Cards.

Unless the Cards move up, they're probably looking at Rudolph, Allen or Jackson.
 
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POISON

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I tend to agree and he's the one I'm looking at for the Cards at #15. Once Cousins lands we'll have a better idea of the affect on the draft. This has the makings of a crazy draft because there are so many quality QBs available.

Will Indy trade down?
If the Jets land Cousins would they trade down for a team wanting to trade up for a QB?

Gonna be fun.
I'd love to get Rudolph. I hear the Bills really want him bad.....
 

DVontel

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I tend to agree and he's the one I'm looking at for the Cards at #15. Once Cousins lands we'll have a better idea of the affect on the draft. This has the makings of a crazy draft because there are so many quality QBs available.

Will Indy trade down?
If the Jets land Cousins would they trade down for a team wanting to trade up for a QB?

Gonna be fun.

My thoughts how the teams sit.

Cleveland - Yes, need a QB and could trade this pick
NY Giants - Don't need a QB, but should draft one
Indy - Don't need a QB, but could trade down
Cleveland - Yes, need a QB and could trade this pick
Denver - need a QB and in a good spot to trade either direction
NY Jets - need a QB and in a good spot to trade either direction

Now it starts getting interesting.

TB - are they sold on Winston? Probably. I don't see them drafting a QB this early.
Chicago - Don't need a QB
SF - Don't need a QB
Oakland - Don't need a QB
Miami - They need a QB and the Cards might need to jump ahead of them.
Cincy - Don't need a QB
Washington - Don't need a QB
GB - Don't need a QB
Cardinals - duh

Below the Cards are maybe 3-4 teams who could look at moving up.

Baltimore might look at a QB, but I don't think they have the resources to jump to the top 10; they don't even have a first rounder this year.

Pitt and Buffalo could look at moving up, though I doubt Pitt would move up far enough. Buffalo could package their two pick to jump the Cards.

Unless the Cards move up, they're probably looking at Rudolph, Allen or Jackson.
I don’t get how the Giants “don’t” need one, but the Dolphins do?
 

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