Mocks for Suns

[Irish]

Batum went from a mid lottery darling to late middle prospect due to being viewed as being too passive. He has great games and others where he doesn't do much.

Unfortunately for Batum, too many highly regarded young internationals taken lin the top 20 that have been disspointing.

Bargnani (drafted #1)
2006-07 251 minutes - 11.6 ppg, 42.7%, 37.3% for three, 3.9 rpg
2007-08 23.9 minutes - 10.2 rpg, 38.6%, 34.5% for three, 3.7 rpg

Statisical decline is not what you expcet from a #1 pick.

Sefolosha (drafted 13th)
2006-07 12.2 minutes - 3.6 ppg, 42.6% 35.7% for three 2.2 rpg
2007-08 20.8 minutes - 6.7 ppg 42.8% 33.6% for three 3.7 rpg

Yi Jianlian (drafted 6th)
2007-08 25.0 minutes - 8.6 ppg, 42.1%, 28.6% for three, 5.2 rpg

Marco Belinelli (drafted 18th)
2007-08 7.3 minutes - 2.9 ppg, 38.7%, 39% for three Sene

Sene (drafted 9th)
2006-07 6.0 minutes - total of 28 minutes for the season
2007-08 4.6 minutes - (total of 13 minutes for the season)


Yaroslav Korolev (drafted 12th)
2005-06 5.3 minutes - (total of 127 minutes ) 1.1 ppg, 30% shooting, 28.6% for three
2006-07 4.1 minutes - (total of 41 minutes) 1.2 ppg, 20% shooting

Bogut is played college ball in the US., so he's not really an international froma a draft perspective. Petro at #25 has not really proven to be an excepitonal player, in that he averaged 6 ppg and under 5 rpg but for a #25 that's not unreasonable. Mahinmi was drafted two years ago, but in his first year he did little for the Spurs in a total of 23 minutes.

Bargnani may turn out to be a good player, but to pass on Aldridge to get him is a straight forward blunder. My guess is that we will see an overreaction against international players this year which could cost Gallinari and Batum.

 

[mathbzh]

You are right Irish. There was an overreaction in favor of "european" players after Dirk, Parker, Gasol, Ginobili... there will probably be an overreaction in the other direction.

I believe players should never be drafted:
- As "The next Nowitski" (replace Nowitski with any other superstar name)
- After a good Nike Hoop Summit (like Sene who came from nowhere, or Batum who could have been a top 10 pick last year despite an inconsistent season.
Side note: Don't draft Ajinca

- When they are 19 yo, very raw, 7ft, athletic (Petro, Sene, Mahinmi... but also O'Bryant or a couple of other US prospects. Becoming an effective center is a long and painfull process and the NBA is not the best place to learn the fundamentals.
The rookie contract will be over before the process is complete.
Side note: Don't draft Ajinca

- When they are unproven (Korolev was impressive against young teams but did not really play at the pro level).
Side note: Don't draft Ajinca

Of course you have to make exceptions to these "rules" if you feel a player is your future franchise player.
And for Ajinca: One day he may be a very good player... but in a few years.

 

[Irish]

Amen.

Most of the successful Euros (either born there or played there professionally), were older when they came over. Guys like Manu, Oberto, Calderon, Kukoc, Divac, et. all were established stars from their international teams. A few younger guys have emerged such as Parker and Diaw, but neither were totally raw 19 year olds.

 

[mathbzh]

For the French players:
Parker was a 15 ppg 5 apg player in the French Pro A.
Diaw was the French MVP of the ProA (first French MVP to score less than 10 ppg)
Even Pietrus was a French All Star.

 

[Irish]

For the French players:
Parker was a 15 ppg 5 apg player in the French Pro A.
Diaw was the French MVP of the ProA (first French MVP to score less than 10 ppg)
Even Pietrus was a French All Star.

I forgot about Pietrus. I run hot and cold on him, but he was not a project on the junior team like Lampe and Darko were.

 

[Muggum]

It's always a mistake to be scared off by recent flops among a certain 'type' of player. A few straight international busts, and people start to shy away from international players, passing on the likes of Parker and Ginobili. A few straight high school busts, and people start to shy away from high schoolers, passing on the likes of Kobe Bryant and Amare Stoudemire.

There are no trends. Every player is an individual.

 

[Irish]

It's always a mistake to be scared off by recent flops among a certain 'type' of player. A few straight international busts, and people start to shy away from international players, passing on the likes of Parker and Ginobili. A few straight high school busts, and people start to shy away from high schoolers, passing on the likes of Kobe Bryant and Amare Stoudemire.

There are no trends. Every player is an individual.

Different situations. Kobe was taken very very eaerly in the straight from HS tend. Many teams were not scouting HS kids and those summer events were not exceptioanlly good measures of how the guys played within a system.

The big year for HS guys was 2001: Kwame Brown #1, Tyson Chander #2, Eddie Curry #4, Sagana Diop #8. Chandler eventually became very good and Diop is not bad. But all of them did almost nothing their first year and all of them took a very long tim to get anywhere.

Was the Amare slide due to that group's sturggles, or was it that he had three coahes in three years and his mother was a convict.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Bill Walker should be an interesting player to watch. His stock has dropped dramatically bc of an injury. It sure might be worth moving up in the second to pick him up if he drops as much as nbadraft.net says.

He might be another Michael Finley type of story.

 

[jlove]

*****UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR SUNS******

As of 1700 PST on Wednesday, 4 Jun 08 according to 53 mock drafts

#15 pick
X 7 ----- Greene
X 6 ----- Rush
X 5 ----- Batum
X 5 ----- Koufos
X 5 ----- Arthur
X 5 ----- Budinger
X 4 ----- Jordan
X 4 ----- McGee
X 4 ----- Alexander
X 3 ----- Hibbert
X 2 ----- Douglas-Roberts
X 2 ----- Augustin
X 1 ----- Love
X 1 ----- Westbrook

#48
X 2 ----- JR Giddens
X 2 ----- James Gist
X 2 ----- Goran Dragic
X 1 ----- Pat Calathes
X 1 ----- Patrick Ewing Jr
X 1 ----- Sonny Weems
X 1 ----- Kyle Weaver
X 1 ----- Trent Plaisted
X 1 ----- Richard Hendrix
X 1 ----- Ryan Anderson
X 1 ----- Richard Roby
X 1 ----- Lester Hudson

 

[JCSunsfan]

I suppose, now that Jerry is gone, the Suns might consider taking a player named Rick Roby.

(Yes Irish, I know its not the same guy).

 

[Irish]

I suppose, now that Jerry is gone, the Suns might consider taking a player named Rick Roby.

(Yes Irish, I know its not the same guy).

Is spelled the same way...

BTW, I'm surprised there is no one mentioning Brian Roberts.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Brian-Roberts-5032/

He's looked better in the camps than during the year, so he's still not on anyones radar. But he's very fast, has some hops, and can shoot very well.

 

[Mainstreet]

Is spelled the same way...

BTW, I'm surprised there is no one mentioning Brian Roberts.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Brian-Roberts-5032/

He's looked better in the camps than during the year, so he's still not on anyones radar. But he's very fast, has some hops, and can shoot very well.

I think I may have asked you before (can't remember) but which draft service to you think evaluates talent the best... at least where the players might be drafted if it were strictly based on talent? I like NBADraftnet., but I cannot find Brian Roberts on their two round draft board.

 

[Irish]

I think I may have asked you before (can't remember) but which draft service to you think evaluates talent the best... at least where the players might be drafted if it were strictly based on talent? I like NBADraftnet., but I cannot find Brian Roberts on their two round draft board.

I look at draftexpress.com first because they do detail writeups and their profiles are usually more up to date than nbadraft.net. I really like http://thedraftreview.com/, but it is far less comprehensive than draftexpress.

A lot of mocks like hoopshype and insidehoops have really brief desriptions. Why at I look for is consistency in descriptions to check against the the first three. In any case, draftexpress.com gives a lot more informaiton about guys in the second round or later.

IMHO draft express is a lot better because it is so much more detailed. For example, Brian Roberts, his pre-Orlando rankins with draftexpress did not show him being drafted. Here is the kind of coverage he got. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Brian-Roberts-5032/

May 17, 2008
Brian Roberts- Roberts is about as tailor made as you’ll find for a workout setting, thanks to his picture-perfect shooting mechanics and incredibly smooth overall game, which reminds this writer of Louis Bullock. He’s incredibly fluid with his pull-up jumpers, looking like he’s worked on this part of his game extensively, and seeing excellent results in the process. Behind the arc he’s as expected lights out, which comes as no shock considering that he shot 46% for 3 in college. The coaches here are working with him a lot on the art of playing at different speeds, and they seem to be thrilled with the progress he’s making. He’s a lot faster with the ball in person than he looks on tape, and was pretty impressive getting up around the basket and throwing down emphatic dunks. His ball-handling skills could still improve somewhat, and he’s probably always going to be on the frail side—making him somewhat of a liability on the defensive end (especially fighting through screens), but it’s hard to not like the way he plays, even if he’s not a pure point guard. If he can find a way to become a bit more aggressive on the court, he has a chance to become a very high level overseas player, and maybe down the road compete for a spot in the NBA.

NBA Pre-Draft Camp, Day Three
May 30, 2008
Brian Roberts had a very strong performance as well (17 points, 5/7 FG, 1/1 3P), doing a great job mixing up his mid-range game with his dribble-drives, either finishing strong at the rim or getting to the free throw line (6-6 in this game). He seems to have significantly improved his ability to smoothly change speeds and keep his defender off-balance, which we just happened to watch him work on a few weeks back when we saw him with David Thorpe and co. at the Pro Training Center at IMG Academy. He did a solid job distributing the ball and playing under control as well, even though he didn’t finish the game with even a single assist. His game is extremely text-book and attractive to the eye, and he surely helped himself with the way he played today.

NBA Pre-Draft Camp, Day Four
May 31, 2008
Brian Roberts might have had the best single game of anyone in day three, scoring 13 points to go along with 13 assists and no turnovers. He pushed the ball extremely well in transition, found open teammates spotting up and cutting the basket all game long, and shot the ball beautifully from mid-range and behind the arc. He’s emerged at this camp as a player that teams need to seriously consider on their draft boards.

Orlando Recap: First Team All-NBA Pre-Draft
June 3, 2008
Knowing how to take advantage of opportunities that are presented to you is what professional basketball is all about, and Brian Roberts did exactly that this week in Orlando. With his teammate Ty Lawson deciding to shut it down after just one game, Roberts stepped up to the plate and delivered in a big way, showing more versatility as a player than he may have been able to at Dayton.

Roberts is a slender point guard whose main calling card has always been his perimeter shot. He has beautiful mechanics and range that extends well beyond the 3-point line, allowing him to shoot a stellar 45.5% from that range in college on six and a half attempts per game. He looked excellent in the drills and hit a high percentage of the shots he took in the actual games, particularly with his picture perfect pull-up jumper from mid-range.

He was able to show off ball-skills in Orlando too, though, displaying a good feel for the game and a knack for pushing the ball up the floor and playing at different speeds. He is excellent on the pick and roll and makes good decisions with the ball in his hands, even if he clearly isn’t what you would call a pure point guard. He executes well offensively and is clearly not a selfish player, but doesn’t have incredible vision or playmaking instincts. He played very aggressive basketball, though, not hesitating in anything he did and showing a great deal of confidence in his offensive abilities, which helped make a lot of good things happen for his team. At times he lacked the strength or explosiveness to get all the way to the rim or finish strong in traffic, but he seemed to know his limitations and did not turn the ball over at all, posting a solid 15/5 assist to turnover ratio in the three games.

Watching his film from college, it’s hard not to be shocked at how heavily his team relied on him to handle the ball and create offense for them virtually all game long. Roberts seemed to enjoy the freedom he had here, which partially explains why he was so effective.

Defensively, Roberts is just average at best, as he often lacks the strength to fight through screens defending the pick and roll. This clearly wasn’t something he was asked to do a great deal of in college, but it will be very important for him at the next level.

Roberts is drawing a lot of Daniel Gibson comparisons these days, as both are slender, smooth 6-2 combo guards with great intangibles and phenomenal perimeter shooting skills. Roberts is a better ball-handler than Gibson, but is not quite as good a defender, though. Like Gibson, he will have to find the absolute ideal situation (likely playing next to a big point guard) to make and stick in the NBA. If he doesn’t find that, he will have a great career in Europe, where he can play a Louis Bullock-type role at a very high level as he continues to develop.

That's a lot of coverage for a guy who might not even be drafted.

 

[Mainstreet]

That's a lot of coverage for a guy who might not even be drafted.

Thanks for the information about the draft sites. I guess I'm looking for players that might be drafted foremost... that is, they are already screened and likely to be drafted.

It's hard to tell who has NBA talent without watching them play. A lot of players get nice write-ups but are never to be seen again (I'm not talking about Brian Roberts). He sounds like a player the Suns might look at in the second round. It seems for the most part, NBADraft.net has a handle on the players to be drafted based on talent. That's why I like their site.

 

[Irish]

Over the past few years, nbadraft.net seems to be focused on getting people to pay for their special service and leave some guys with no profile or hopelessly out of date ones.

Let me give an example. Brandon Rush is listed by nbadraft.net at #26, but their profile is dated 7-24-2007 (ie last summer). At #26, this is probably the lowest he's ranked on any mock,

nbadraft.net lists Augustine going to the Suns at #15. As far as I can tell, absolutely nobody else has him slipping that low. At the same time, their profile is dated 6-24-07.

They have Budinger ranked #13 ( at least 5 slots higher than anybody else) with a profile written in 7-14-06.

I don't typically agree with Chad Ford , but at least he gives an explanation of why he ranks guys the way he does. I can't tell with nbadraft.net. Also, IMHO the best writer for nbadraft used to be Matt Maurer who now runs draftreview.com.

 

[Mainstreet]

Over the past few years, nbadraft.net seems to be focused on getting people to pay for their special service and leave some guys with no profile or hopelessly out of date ones.

Let me give an example. Brandon Rush is listed by nbadraft.net at #26, but their profile is dated 7-24-2007 (ie last summer). At #26, this is probably the lowest he's ranked on any mock,

nbadraft.net lists Augustine going to the Suns at #15. As far as I can tell, absolutely nobody else has him slipping that low. At the same time, their profile is dated 6-24-07.

They have Budinger ranked #13 ( at least 5 slots higher than anybody else) with a profile written in 7-14-06.

I don't typically agree with Chad Ford , but at least he gives an explanation of why he ranks guys the way he does. I can't tell with nbadraft.net. Also, IMHO the best writer for nbadraft used to be Matt Maurer who now runs draftreview.com.

You're right, a lot of NBADraftnet write ups are out of date but they do update their slotting regularly. They had Augustin as Phoenix's selection for a long time and still do, but I believe before that, Brandon Rush was there in the 15th slot. I do think their board listings gives the fan an ebb and flow of where a player is ranked at a given time. I also like some of their video clips. Just from memory, it seems their board is pretty good at getting players valued correctly come draft day.

I guess a fan needs several draft sites to get the full flavor of the draft. The more draft sites the merrier.

 

[mathbzh]

Update on Batum: Le Mans lost the game against Roanne (73-60).
Batum sucked during that game (as half of his teammates) with 3 pt (1/7, 1/5 3P%) , 4 rbds, 2 ast, 1 blk, 1stl and 3 TO in 23 minutes.

For the last 2 games Batum has attempted 12 3pointers (a lot from NBA distance) for only 4 2pters. I hope he will not fall in love with 3 pt shooting (he is not bad but not a great shooter). Hoppefuly it is just because he is working on this aspect of his game and try to apply what he learned. I hope he will attack the rim more in game 3. The bright side is that if he becomes a consistant 3 pt shooter and with his athletism, length (very high release point) and ability to make separation from his defender, it could become a deadly weapon.

 

[jlove]

*****UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR SUNS******

As of 1154 PST on Wednesday, 9 Jun 08 according to 67 mock drafts

#15 pick
X10 ----- Greene
X 8 ----- Rush
X 7 ----- Budinger
X 7 ----- Koufos
X 6 ----- Arthur
X 6 ----- Jordan
X 5 ----- Batum
X 4 ----- McGee
X 4 ----- Alexander
X 3 ----- Hibbert
X 2 ----- Douglas-Roberts
X 2 ----- Augustin
X 2 ----- Love
X 1 ----- Westbrook
X 1 ----- Walker (this site has Greene #8, Alexander #24, Rush #28, Arthur #19....Laughable)

#48
X 3 ----- JR Giddens
X 2 ----- James Gist
X 2 ----- Goran Dragic
X 2 ----- Trent Plaisted
X 1 ----- Pat Calathes
X 1 ----- Patrick Ewing Jr
X 1 ----- Sonny Weems
X 1 ----- Kyle Weaver
X 1 ----- Richard Hendrix
X 1 ----- Ryan Anderson
X 1 ----- Richard Roby
X 1 ----- Lester Hudson
X 1 ----- Brian Roberts
X 1 ----- Othella Hunter

 

[Irish]

Interesting stuff.

It's hard because not every site is equal. Some are 15 year olds with dart boards (I'm not sure I enriely joking here) and some have full time professional analysts.

I get the impression that more and more sites are beginning to believe the Rush promise rumor. The Budinger stuff could be that people overate Kerr's U of A connection although he's generally ranked in the immeidate post lottery grouping.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Let's get an update now that the drop outs and for sures are locked in.

(not sure how to use the site and dont have the time myself )

 

[Mainstreet]

Let's get an update now that the drop outs and for sures are locked in.

(not sure how to use the site and dont have the time myself )

I know NBADraftnet immediately updated their board after the last college players declared whether they were in or out of the draft. I'm not sure if this is what you are looking for... but it covers the top players.

http://www.nbadraft.net/

 

[Bigdez22]

If Donte Green is on the board and they take Rush........I will not watch another suns game till next october.........I am serious.

Green has so much upside its a joke. athletic,6-10,can shoot, will need time to develop but could be a big time player in a couple of years

Rush could be a good player, but since this may be the last first rounder we have for the next 20 years......lets take a gamble

 

[jlove]

Mocks for Suns as of 18 Jun 08 @ 1546 PST

Using 42 UPDATED mock drafts:

#15
X 13 ----- Brandon Rush
X 7 ----- Donte Greene
X 4 ----- JaVale McGee
X 3 ----- Joe Alexander
X 3 ----- Kosta Koufos
X 3 ----- DeAndre Jordan
X 2 ----- Robin Lopez
X 2 ----- Darrell Arthur
X 1 ----- DJ Augustin
X 1 ----- Maurice Speights
X 1 ----- Chris Douglas-Roberts
X 1 ----- Eric Gordan
X 1 ----- Russell Westbrook

#48
X 2 ----- James Gist
X 1 ----- CJ Miles
X 1 ----- Bryce Taylor
X 1 ----- Kyle Weaver
X 1 ----- George Hill
X 1 ----- Shan Foster
X 1 ----- Ante Tomic
X 1 ----- Pat Calathes
X 1 ----- Sonny Weems
X 1 ----- Will Daniels
X 1 ----- Chris Lofton
X 1 ----- Richard Hendrix
X 1 ----- Nathan Jawai

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

At this point, I think a trade for the Blazers pick would be the best thing for us, then take Rush and Greene

p.s. I would like to know which site put Westbrook falling to 15 lol.

 

[jlove]

At this point, I think a trade for the Blazers pick would be the best thing for us, then take Rush and Greene

p.s. I would like to know which site put Westbrook falling to 15 lol.

http://www.federicobuffa.com/