April 2, 2008
Although he’s getting nowhere near the same
NBA draft attention as his teammate
Derrick Rose,
Chris Douglas-Roberts is having every bit as good a season, if not much better when taking the entire year into account. Recently named a first-team All-American, and on the heels of back to back 25 points games in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight to help propel Memphis into the Final Four, he’s forcing NBA scouts to adjust to his unorthodox game. Douglas-Roberts puts up some of the best all-around numbers of any wing prospect in this draft, but many people still have a hard time getting over his awkward, hunched over posture on the court, his skinny frame, and unconventional ball-handling and scoring style. “Nothing he does is pretty,” told us one respected NBA executive, “but he finds a way to but the ball in the hole, even though he moves like he’s 60 years old.”
Does CDR, as he’s called, have the physical tools needed to play heavy minutes as a swingman in the NBA? “He’s not an athletic freak, but to me that’s not really a concern,” tells us the same NBA talent evaluator—“he makes one or two plays every game that make you go ‘holy ****’--finding a way into the lane and then absolutely tearing the rim off. Being the best player on possibly the best team in America has to say something…”
The numbers are pretty staggering when you look at them and compare what he’s doing with his peers in this draft class. On a per-40 minute pace adjusted basis, Douglas-Roberts ranks in the
top five in scoring amongst realistic shooting guard prospects, as well as
#1 by a large margin in FG%,
top five in 3-point percentage,
top 5 in free throw attempts,
top 5 in PER,
top 5 in points per possession,
top 5 in true shooting percentage,
top 5 in effective field goal percentage, and
8th best in turnovers per possession.
While his numbers are up across the board
from last season to this, what’s even more interesting is just how much Douglas-Roberts has changed his playing style…According to Synergy Sports Technology’s quantified player reports, jump-shots (mid-range and 3-pointers) only accounted for 24% of CDR’s offense last season, of which he converted only 35%. This season, jumpers account for 46% of his offense, and he is converting on 43% of them. He looked fairly limited last season in the fact when he put the ball on the floor, he strongly preferred going right (61%), while this season he’s almost even at 49% right, and 51% left. Last season, when he started slashing, it was pretty obvious that he was going all the way to the rack—as he only pulled up off the dribble 12% of the time. This season, that number has risen to 58%. Even though he takes it all the way to the rack slightly less often, he still gets to the free throw line at a better rate, and converts on his shots at the rim on a phenomenal 64% clip, compared with “just” 57% last season.
Douglas-Roberts has his limitations. He’s not the type of player you isolate out on the perimeter and ask to go to work creating his own shot, as his first step just isn’t that great. He is very good when receiving the ball in motion, though, as Memphis’ offense is patently known for, with a hand-off or an
NFL style option/lateral pass. Once you get him going in space, he’s tremendous due to his terrific body control, slithery nose for the rim, solid vertical leap, ability to dribble and finish with either hand, creativity and all-around tenacity. He’s the type of player who just refuses to be contained, but rather than driving head-first into brick walls, also has terrific instincts for how to get his shot off effectively. You would think that his lack of bulk would hinder him from finishing around the rim, but that just doesn’t seem to be the case, largely because of his will.
His in-between game is definitely the part of his game that has improved the most this season. Rather than pull-up off the dribble in traditional fashion like most players, he instead prefers to use some very crafty floaters with range that extends all the way out to the free throw line, sometimes using the glass. It’s an unorthodox way of scoring, but it really works, as he releases the ball just too quick for opposing players to contest or block. He can shoot it “normally” too, as he sometimes does, and gets pretty good results here too.
From behind the arc, Douglas-Roberts has improved substantially this season as well, knocking down over twice as many 3-pointers, while improving his percentages from 33% to nearly 42%. He still doesn’t attempt that many shots from that range, just over 2 and a half per game, but it’s hard to fault him considering that he shoots 58% from inside the arc, and gets to the free throw line 5 and a half times per game. His 3-point stroke looks pretty fluid, although it’s not particularly quick, and it seems that in time he should be able to develop NBA range at least with his feet set, even if this will probably never be his bread and butter.
On the other end of the floor, Douglas-Roberts is an integral part of one of the
best defenses in all of college basketball. He has great size for the wing position at 6-7, to go along with an excellent wingspan, and is just as tenacious here as he is one the offensive side. His lateral quickness is not top-notch, although his tough, pesky nature helps compensate for most limitations he might have on this end.
Douglas-Roberts is widely expected to declare for the draft this year, and definitely has a strong case to be drafted in the first round, possibly even the top-20. His versatile offensive skills, combined with his size, length, outstanding instincts and overwhelmingly impressive numbers lead you to believe that he will have a long and successful NBA career, particularly when you take into account his intangibles, which are reportedly outstanding. He has a strong work ethic, is an excellent teammate, is very well-spoken, and has a will to succeed and win that can’t be taught. A big game this weekend in the Final Four would certainly not hurt his cause, though.
(Kidding)
