NBA Draft Lottery. What pick do we get?

[Folster]

We're guaranteed a pick in the top 7 if I understand the lottery process. The question is where. It would be interesting to know where all of think it ends up. Will the we finally" luck" out and win the lottery in the draft with no surefire franchise player or will we get jumped by multiple teams?

 

[JerkFace]

My guess is we will be #5. There is usually one team in the 4-7 range that jumps up.

 

[Folster]

I may have to consider giving up the NBA if we get jumped by three teams and end up with the #7 pick. The odds of that happening have to be so minute, that it would just confirm the curse and the fact that we will never win a championship.

 

[Folster]

I say we get screwed and two teams jump us. #6 and whoever is at #5 will take the player we want. I'm definitely feeling some bad vibes.

 

[JS22]

I voted #7 just because it's the Suns. Have they EVER had any good luck?

 

[AzStevenCal]

It's crossed my mind many times the past few months and Errntknight philosophized on it in another thread: this is the worst possible year to get lucky and earn the number one spot, therefore we're a shoo-in for it.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

Since every team has the highest chance to win the pick they already have, the most likely scenario of all the scenarios is that it stays as it is, although that is not very likely either.

 

[tobiazz]

Option #8: Suns win #1 pick, then the league discovers Lance Blanks gave Beasley a "Joe Smith" contract and rescinds the pick, along with the Suns 2014 pick.

 

[tobiazz]

Since every team has the highest chance to win the pick they already have, the most likely scenario of all the scenarios is that it stays as it is, although that is not very likely either.

Interestingly, this is not the case. The Suns only have a 10% chance to stay at number 4 and a 35% chance to move down to 5. There is a slightly higher chance of them moving down than up, but they do have over a 1/3 chance of moving to a top-3 pick.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nb...ry-2013-odds-orlando-magic-charlotte-bobcats/

 

[slinslin]

Interestingly, this is not the case. The Suns only have a 10% chance to stay at number 4 and a 35% chance to move down to 5. There is a slightly higher chance of them moving down than up, but they do have over a 1/3 chance of moving to a top-3 pick.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nb...ry-2013-odds-orlando-magic-charlotte-bobcats/

It depends on how you look at it.

If you look at every team on its own the highest chance to win any pick is to win the one they already have.

If every team gets the pick they have the highest chance to get then nobody moves up or down.

Of course at a larger scale it is more likely that one of 10 does move up compared to 1 team staying where they are but from all the possible picking scenarios picking in the order they are now is more likely than one specific team moving up.

 

[slinslin]

See in the lottery they first draw the winner.

Orlando has a 25% chance, then they draw the 2nd winner and Charlotte has the highest chance to win that pick and then Cleveland 3rd. So that is still the most likely scenario of all the scenarios.

Only if you compare the Suns winning 4th to the last 10 teams combined chance of winning #1, #2 or #3 the chance to pick 4th is lower. But as a specific scenario picking #4 is most likely.

That's what I wanted to say.

 

[bankybruce]

I have a feeling that your guys will get the #2 pick.

 

[Griffin]

See in the lottery they first draw the winner.

Orlando has a 25% chance, then they draw the 2nd winner and Charlotte has the highest chance to win that pick and then Cleveland 3rd. So that is still the most likely scenario of all the scenarios.

Lol. Sorry, but no. Orlando has a 25% to get the top pick, which means they have a 75% not to get the top pick, which is a far more likely scenario.

 

[slinslin]

Lol. Sorry, but no. Orlando has a 25% to get the top pick, which means they have a 75% not to get the top pick, which is a far more likely scenario.

Any other scenario is more unlikely for any other team winning #1. Like you said the other scenario is a 75% chance that one of thirteen teams wins it but specifically it is most likely that Orlando picks 1, Charlotte 2 and Cleveland 3.

I mean any other logic says that the Suns are always more likely to not pick #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6 or #7. No slot has more than a 50% chance I am pretty sure.

That was my entire point, if I had to guess an entire draft order I would guess the one that is already in place.

 

[Griffin]

Any other scenario is more unlikely for any other team winning #1. Like you said the other scenario is a 75% chance that one of thirteen teams wins it but specifically it is most likely that Orlando picks 1, Charlotte 2 and Cleveland 3.

I mean any other logic says that the Suns are always more likely to not pick #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6 or #7. No slot has more than a 50% chance I am pretty sure.

That was my entire point, if I had to guess an entire draft order I would guess the one that is already in place.

I see what you are saying. But the probability that the teams actually do pick in the order they are seeded is very very low, even if it is the most likely scenario of them all. So am not sure what good does it do to look at it from that perspective.

 

[elindholm]

It depends on how you look at it.

If you look at every team on its own the highest chance to win any pick is to win the one they already have.

If every team gets the pick they have the highest chance to get then nobody moves up or down.

Of course at a larger scale it is more likely that one of 10 does move up compared to 1 team staying where they are but from all the possible picking scenarios picking in the order they are now is more likely than one specific team moving up.

Slinslin, I thought you were a math guy. This is total gibberish.

What you're trying to say is that the single most likely outcome is that every team stays where it is. That's true, but the probability of that single outcome is astronomically low.

 

[slinslin]

yes I said the chance is low but it is the most likely outcome of all scenarios, if you just look at the Suns pick only it is unlikely they pick #4 sure.

Anyway when is the draft lottery on tv and on which channel?

 

[AzStevenCal]

yes I said the chance is low but it is the most likely outcome of all scenarios, if you just look at the Suns pick only it is unlikely they pick #4 sure.

Anyway when is the draft lottery on tv and on which channel?

It's on ESPN just prior to tonights Grizzlies/Spurs matchup, 5:30 Pacific time.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

I remember that in the last years the lottery was done behind closed doors and what is on ESPN is only a bogus drawing for the tv audience.

I assume it is the same this year?

 

[devilalum]

I remember that in the last years the lottery was done behind closed doors and what is on ESPN is only a bogus drawing for the tv audience.

I assume it is the same this year?

Its not bogus. They just reveal the results on TV. They explain that it is done in ahead of time.

 

[slinslin]

Its not bogus. They just reveal the results on TV. They explain that it is done in ahead of time.

Yes but the team officials (at least some) already knew the results (at least in the past) so it's kind of bogus.

 

[slinslin]

Lets just win this thing and pick Nerlens Noel and play him at the 4. Kevin Garnett was rail thin at that age too. Then find another big athletic center and you got a defensive foundation to add a scoring wing next year.

Noel #1
trade up in the middle of the first round for Adams.

 

[Errntknght]

We're a lock for number one this year. I'm not even going to bother watching.

 

[slinslin]

god we are going to get screwed, those fools Jalen Rose and whoever did not even have us as one of the top 5 deserving teams for that #1 pick. They had Philly, Orlando, Washington, Sacramento and Detroit..

 

[tobiazz]

Top-3, please!