NBA Draft Lottery. What pick do we get?

[slinslin]

I think we should take advantage based on the mere fact that the draft is perceived as weak to buy low on youth and prospects to really rebuild and overhaul our roster and start 2-3 year rebuilding process through the draft. I mean we have no chance to compete next year but there are about 3-5 players in the draft next year that would be the #1 pick this year Wiggins, Parker, Randle and maybe Smart...

I think we are the 2nd oldest lottery team still (Dallas being first)..

There seem to be a few picks available #10 (for gortat?), #12(for gortat or dudley?), #13 (for capsace?) among others.. probably higher picks that will be available as well to trade into..

 

[JCSunsfan]

I think we should take advantage based on the mere fact that the draft is perceived as weak to buy low on youth and prospects to really rebuild and overhaul our roster and start 2-3 year rebuilding process through the draft. I mean we have no chance to compete next year but there are about 3-5 players in the draft next year that would be the #1 pick this year Wiggins, Parker, Randle and maybe Smart...

I think we are the 2nd oldest lottery team still (Dallas being first)..

There seem to be a few picks available #10 (for gortat?), #12(for gortat or dudley?), #13 (for capsace?) among others.. probably higher picks that will be available as well to trade into..

I think you would have to give up the #30 pick for the first two. It wouldnt make sense for Dallas to take back a pick if they are trying to clear cap space. Actually, helping Dallas make room for Howard makes sense on two levels. It would get us a pick that should yield a decent big (Adams, Zeller) AND Howard seems to disrupt every team he plays for.

 

[HooverDam]

It'll be interesting to see how desperate Dallas is to shave payroll. The Suns may be able to take advantage of that the way the Sonics played Kerr/Sarver in the KT deal.

I'd do a trade that netted the Suns Marion (and his expiring contract) & the Mavs pick for Dudley. The Suns would maybe need to throw in their late 2nd rounder so the Mavs would have enough bodies.

Switching Marion for Duds is arguably an upgrade for Dallas and saves them $5M this year on top of the 1.6M they save from not picking anyone. Though giving them Dudley does seem a bit too much like a favor, perhaps the teams could swap 2nd rounders (thus moving us up a bit).

E: of course I'd prefer to send Beasley away in this deal instead of JD, but that seems too unrealistic.

 

[slinslin]

eh I am pretty sure Jared Dudley alone is close to the value of the #13 pick in this draft... Dudley for Mario and #13 is not good business for us.

one of the more often proposed deals on realgm was Jared Dudley for Minnesota's pick #9 or sth like that..

 

[SirStefan32]

Even if you have to give up the 30th pick, you can buy a high second-rounder and still get similar quality there. We do need to be careful though- we don't want to trade Dudley and Gortat for two picks and end up with 4 first rounders.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Even if you have to give up the 30th pick, you can buy a high second-rounder and still get similar quality there. We do need to be careful though- we don't want to trade Dudley and Gortat for two picks and end up with 4 first rounders.

Too many rookies at one time is too hard to manage. It would be worth having Dudley around just to mentor younger talent.

 

[Mainstreet]

Even if you have to give up the 30th pick, you can buy a high second-rounder and still get similar quality there. We do need to be careful though- we don't want to trade Dudley and Gortat for two picks and end up with 4 first rounders.

We can always spread the picks out over different years if need be.

 

[Errntknght]

Heck, yes... lets try for lots of picks for 2014!

 

[slinslin]

Too many rookies at one time is too hard to manage. It would be worth having Dudley around just to mentor younger talent.

Winning is not our target for next season. Dudley is not a mentor he is asking for a coach that can be a mentor himself.

I don't see the problem with multiple rookies, we are a complete rebuilding team.

 

[slinslin]

Heck, yes... lets try for lots of picks for 2014!

That is only good if you got unprotected picks. But since nobody will trade those what is the point?

2014 Draft has a few players that could have been #1 picks this year but other than the very top end the 2014 draft is not substantially stronger really... 2013 is not even that weak, it just gets repeated ad nauseam because there is no clear #1 pick..

2014 picks are expensive because of the hype and 2013 picks are cheap. It would be wise to be agressive in the draft this year unless you got a pick from a likely lottery team next year with little to no protection..

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Winning is not our target for next season. Dudley is not a mentor he is asking for a coach that can be a mentor himself.

I don't see the problem with multiple rookies, we are a complete rebuilding team.

I don't think he is specifically talking about next season. If you fill a team with too many young players it could be 4+ years to start winning some games. Unless of course you get lucky and get the #1 pick in a year that has a superstar talent.

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[JCSunsfan]

I don't think he is specifically talking about next season. If you fill a team with too many young players it could be 4+ years to start winning some games. Unless of course you get lucky and get the #1 pick in a year that has a superstar talent.

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Even then, young talent does not develop without vets around. Development will be delayed or not happen altogether. The Clippers stayed in the cellar forever because of this. They had top pick after top pick, but their teams were immature and never developed.

The Spurs are the antithesis. They have a professional veteran culture and it seems every rookie they pick thrives. Its not just that they draft better.
They have better system for developing talent. Players know their roles quickly and develop within them. They are not pulled in and out of the lineup.

 

[SirStefan32]

I am 100% with JC on this one. One CAN, indeed, have too many rookies. Development time is one reason, but I'd also add that it doesn't make sense from the financial standpoint either. Let's assume that the Suns manage to get another two lottery picks this year, and then end up with 3 lottery picks next season as well. If 3 of those turn out to be worth extending... that is A LOT of money to spend and a lot of decisions to make three and four years from now.

I think balance is the key, as is finding serviceable players in the late first/ early second round, and slowly develop 2-3 youngsters every year.

I realize that having too many good players to extend them all is a great problem to have compared to what we are suffering through right now, but it is something to keep in mind.

 

[Superbone]

I am 100% with JC on this one. One CAN, indeed, have too many rookies. Development time is one reason, but I'd also add that it doesn't make sense from the financial standpoint either. Let's assume that the Suns manage to get another two lottery picks this year, and then end up with 3 lottery picks next season as well. If 3 of those turn out to be worth extending... that is A LOT of money to spend and a lot of decisions to make three and four years from now.

I think balance is the key, as is finding serviceable players in the late first/ early second round, and slowly develop 2-3 youngsters every year.

I realize that having too many good players to extend them all is a great problem to have compared to what we are suffering through right now, but it is something to keep in mind.

That is basically the issue OKC ran into and they lost Harden because of it.

 

[JCSunsfan]

That is basically the issue OKC ran into and they lost Harden because of it.

Yes. It is better to stockpile picks for several years, actually just like the Suns did when they traded Nash.

I would be all for not allowing conditions on traded picks.

It is also hard to evaluate rookies when they are playing with other rookies. Its like trying to do a science experiment with too many variables. Much better to play rookies with known commodities and see how they react.

My preference is no more than two. Get the best two you can.

 

[SirStefan32]

Yes. It is better to stockpile picks for several years, actually just like the Suns did when they traded Nash.

I would be all for not allowing conditions on traded picks.

It is also hard to evaluate rookies when they are playing with other rookies. Its like trying to do a science experiment with too many variables. Much better to play rookies with known commodities and see how they react.

My preference is no more than two. Get the best two you can.

Exactly. I would also be interested in "unprotected 2016 or 2017 picks" more than "conditional 2014 or 2015" picks. There's no rush- we have two first round picks in this draft, next one, and the one after that. Trade up if possible, but I wouldn't really worry about adding more picks than that.

 

[slinslin]

That is basically the issue OKC ran into and they lost Harden because of it.

That argument is invalid though, that is a luxury problem if you hit the jackpot on 4-5 picks within 3 years.

Might just as well hit the jackpot on 4-5 cheap free agents and have to extend them..

If that is you concern about having many rookies..... having too many of them that you may not be able to fit them under the cap 4 years down the road... If you ever get into that situation you did everything right.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

That argument is invalid though, that is a luxury problem if you hit the jackpot on 4-5 picks within 3 years.

Might just as well hit the jackpot on 4-5 cheap free agents and have to extend them..

If that is you concern about having many rookies..... having too many of them that you may not be able to fit them under the cap 4 years down the road... If you ever get into that situation you did everything right.

No kidding. I'd love to have OKC problems. Their only mistake was getting rid of Harden instead of Perkins.

 

[Phrazbit]

That is basically the issue OKC ran into and they lost Harden because of it.

OKC out-thought themselves with their cap-cleverness... thats why they lost Harden. The idea that having 4 players of near max-contract quality talent is a problem is silly.

OKC could have kept Harden this entire year at the bargain price of 5 mil, if he hits free agency the most an opposing team could have offered was 4 year 58 mil (a steal for his talents) and OKC would have the right to match. They could have either had him at a bargain price or gotten a gold mine in a sign and trade. They could have amnestied the awful and washed up Perkins and saved themselves even sweating the luxury tax for another 2 years. Instead they tried to play chicken with Harden, telling him "take a contract we like or we WILL trade you" and OKC refused to blink... and traded him.

Presti is a very good GM but he screwed the pooch on that one. Between the Harden trade and the Perkins trade (and contract) they've done some real damage to what looked like a dynasty. But knowing their talent scouting they will land the best player in the draft with the 12th pick and all will be well.

I can see the idea that having too many at once rookies would possibly hurt their development, especially if you get a real bad apple in the mix. But to worry about what they will potentially cost in 4 years if they've all become stars... we should be so lucky.

 

[Suns_fan69]

I can see the idea that having too many at once rookies would possibly hurt their development, especially if you get a real bad apple in the mix.

Sacramento and Demarcus Cousins immediately comes to mind. Imagine if he joined a team with a KG like vet to keep him in check?

 

[AzStevenCal]

Sacramento and Demarcus Cousins immediately comes to mind. Imagine if he joined a team with a KG like vet to keep him in check?

Although I agree with the concept, I think that's a bad example. I can't see a veteran getting through to Cousins as the guy already believes he knows it all. He had plenty of role models at Kentucky and again in the pros including a coach that he supposedly respected (following Westy's firing) and he's still great when he wants to be but only when he wants to be. And he's always just a hair away from exploding and no amount of veteran presence can solve that problem.

Steve

 

[Cheesebeef]

OKC out-thought themselves with their cap-cleverness... thats why they lost Harden. The idea that having 4 players of near max-contract quality talent is a problem is silly.

OKC could have kept Harden this entire year at the bargain price of 5 mil, if he hits free agency the most an opposing team could have offered was 4 year 58 mil (a steal for his talents) and OKC would have the right to match. They could have either had him at a bargain price or gotten a gold mine in a sign and trade. They could have amnestied the awful and washed up Perkins and saved themselves even sweating the luxury tax for another 2 years. Instead they tried to play chicken with Harden, telling him "take a contract we like or we WILL trade you" and OKC refused to blink... and traded him.

Presti is a very good GM but he screwed the pooch on that one.

agreed. never understood how they dealt with that situation.