NBA standings predictions!

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Phrazbit

Phrazbit

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I think Green is going to come down to earth in a big way. Marcus has been terrible but Markieff seems to be playing better so far.

And on top of that, unless we looked like we'd actually make the playoffs I think any continued solid play from a dude like Green would only lead to him being trade bait later.
 

Errntknght

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Predicting on the basis of 5 or so games doesn't figure to be too accurate but this method is probably better than simply extrapolating from the WL records - which would put us at 49 wins.

Comparing the league wide average offensive efficiency rating so far this year to last year it is 7.5% lower. I didn't track the evolution of the average as the year went along last year so I can't say it is typical behavior to start low and climb but I think it has to - staying so low seems virtually impossible without a major rule change. If the teams in general are just starting slow and the Suns are off to a relatively fast start then we should fall back.

According Sagarin our strength of schedule so far is quite high but the Spurs are fairly slow starters as a rule (IMO) and OKC had just got Westbrook when we played them so our SOS may higher than it really should be. I don't use SOS in calculating the rating but I use it mentally when I interpret the rating - and so good showings against those two teams incline me think we could actually be as good as 36 wins.
 

Cheesebeef

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Predicting on the basis of 5 or so games doesn't figure to be too accurate but this method is probably better than simply extrapolating from the WL records - which would put us at 49 wins.

Comparing the league wide average offensive efficiency rating so far this year to last year it is 7.5% lower. I didn't track the evolution of the average as the year went along last year so I can't say it is typical behavior to start low and climb but I think it has to - staying so low seems virtually impossible without a major rule change. If the teams in general are just starting slow and the Suns are off to a relatively fast start then we should fall back.

According Sagarin our strength of schedule so far is quite high but the Spurs are fairly slow starters as a rule (IMO) and OKC had just got Westbrook when we played them so our SOS may higher than it really should be. I don't use SOS in calculating the rating but I use it mentally when I interpret the rating - and so good showings against those two teams incline me think we could actually be as good as 36 wins.

do you really think the Lakers are only going to win another 14 games this season and that Bulls will be amongst the worst teams in the league? or that OKC only wins 43 games? i'd say it's wayyyyyyyyyyyyy too early to be projecting anything after 5 games.
 

elindholm

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The weird thing is that Sagarin still has the Suns ranked only 21st out of 30, even though they've gone 3-2 against (he calculates) one of the league's toughest schedules. He used to claim that his system had no memory of the previous system, but I can't see how that can be true in the Suns' case. Surely they've played better this season than have the Knicks, for example, yet the Knicks are at #15.
 

ASUCHRIS

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It seems way too early to draw any conclusions at this point. Let's play 20 games and see where everyone is at.
 

BC867

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Surely they've (the Suns have) played better this season than have the Knicks, for example, yet the Knicks are at #15.
And the Knicks have lost their Center Tyson Chandler for 4-6 weeks. He is a difference maker with them, just as he was for the Mavs in his one season with them.

With Amar'e a shadow of his former self now, he will become even worse (even off the bench) if he has to pick up part of the slack.
 

Errntknght

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do you really think the Lakers are only going to win another 14 games this season and that Bulls will be amongst the worst teams in the league? or that OKC only wins 43 games? i'd say it's wayyyyyyyyyyyyy too early to be projecting anything after 5 games.

Of course its way to early to project much and this doesn't include my thoughts about any of the teams - it is based on how they have played thus far. I did calculate offensive efficiency for the Chicago players but you don't have to do that to see that Rose, however much his old self he looks like at times, is not performing the way he did before - shooting % are way down, except for FTs, assists way down, turnovers way up. His off. eff. rating is half what it was before. On top of that Butler, Heinrich and Deng are down significantly. Nate Robinson is gone and while he was not a net positive for them last year, he would be this year - at the same rating. Heck, they might even miss Belinelli. None of their bit players are contributing anything - literally zip. Like everyone else, I expect Rose to get back to close to where he was before but I doubt the team gets in the title hunt.

OKC and Westbrook are a very similar story except Russell is only down by 25%. Most of his teammates are also down, with rookie Steven Adams and Derek Fisher being the only bright spots. I expect Westbrook to return to form but the whole team is going to have to play better than they have been to be a serious contender.
 
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