You will have a better shot than me....I am at Rural and Guad, so they got a way to go before they get here. Looking at all the models from this afternoon though I am not suprised we got a little more active of an afternoon. Had a nice pool of about 1.5" precipitable water flow in over night and with how hot it was the convective trigger temp was only 111. I am keepin my fingers crossed though.
I think you're getting it soon...developing over Mesa and Phoenix...you are right in the middle.
Enjoy