Slacker!
Official Arizona Weather Thread
- Thread starter Mike Olbinski
- Start date
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Looks like a storm cell heading my way. *Crosses Fingers*
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Nice shower came down for about 10 mins here. Looks like more developing where that came from.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
I just had a nice ten minute downpour.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Just checked. Hell has not frozen over. You must have done some making up to mother nature then!
I just had a nice ten minute downpour.
Just checked. Hell has not frozen over. You must have done some making up to mother nature then!
It was a tease, just enough to pique my interest.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Looks like more might come though O. Keep doing the rain dance that your doing.
Looks like more might come though O. Keep doing the rain dance that your doing.
All dancing does is bring frustration.
If it happens it happens.
It's starting to rain again, nothing heavy, and the sun is shining brightly.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Well it would be a major tease at this point. I might have to deck mother nature if it doesn't rain jk
jkAll dancing does is bring frustration.
If it happens it happens.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Well it could get interesting today. Stress the could.
SATELLITE...SFC...AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ROUGHLY THE SERN TWO-THIRDS OF AZ
TODAY...BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. TSTMS
SHOULD INCREASE/SPREAD NEWD THIS AFTN/EVE...FROM THE SRN DESERTS
INTO THE RIM VICINITY AND THE SERN MOUNTAINS. 30-40 KT SWLY MID LVL
FLOW...LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF UPR LVL JET ENTRANCE REGION AS CA VORT
CONTINUES ESEWD...AMPLE PW /AROUND 1 INCH/...AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TOGETHER SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. DMGG WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
SATELLITE...SFC...AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ROUGHLY THE SERN TWO-THIRDS OF AZ
TODAY...BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. TSTMS
SHOULD INCREASE/SPREAD NEWD THIS AFTN/EVE...FROM THE SRN DESERTS
INTO THE RIM VICINITY AND THE SERN MOUNTAINS. 30-40 KT SWLY MID LVL
FLOW...LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF UPR LVL JET ENTRANCE REGION AS CA VORT
CONTINUES ESEWD...AMPLE PW /AROUND 1 INCH/...AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TOGETHER SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. DMGG WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
DemsMyBoys
ASFN Icon
The little man (whose presence is supposed to indicate rain for the uninitiated) is all the way out the house on my genuine Black Forest weather station. "Gunther" hasn't been this far outside all Monsoon season. If I don't get rain I'm calling some mystic-crystal type up in Sedona to put me on the come-to-the-Vortex-and get-enlightened list and start selling Red Rock passes to anybody who wants to park in front of my house.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
LOL. The clouds are forming over Phoenix but IDK. Lets just say the forecasters are stumped.
12Z PSR RAOB FROM THIS MORNING CAME IN QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAN ANTICIPATED...MUCH DRIER THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS. THE
DRIER AIR CERTAINLY WANES OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER-POP FCST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ESTIMATED MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS COMING IN
AROUND 10G/KG. FURTHERMORE...PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM/ INDICATE IT SHOULD BE RAINING OVER CENTRAL
PHOENIX RIGHT NOW /DURING THE 12-18Z PERIOD/...AND CLEARLY THAT IS
NOT THE CASE. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL SITTING IN A GOOD SPOT FOR SOME
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE WAY OF UVV AND JET DYNAMICS /RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 65-85KT JET MOVES OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 00Z/.
12Z TWC RAOB FROM THIS MORNING IS QUITE A BIT MORE MOIST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH AN ESTIMATED MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIO CLOSER TO 13-14
G/KG. PSR SOUNDING AND KIWA VAD WIND PROFILES BOTH INDICATE A DECENT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...WHICH COULD HELP ADVECT SOME OF THE MORE
MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT THE PROFILE ALSO
INDICATES VEERING...WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY /DRIER/ FLOW IN PLACE
FROM ABOUT 8K FT AGL ALOFT. THUS...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN STORE FOR
TODAY...NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SEEMS THE DRY LINE
OVER THE WESTERN CWA MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD NOW WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT MUCH OF PHOENIX WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY/WEST SIDE OF ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST...WHERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES...THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. WILL
GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT FOR AT LEAST THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME...AND HIGHLIGHT THE MORE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES FROM
THE FAR EAST VALLEY EASTWARD. WILL ALSO MONITOR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE TODAY...IN HOPES OF AN UPDATED MOISTURE
PROFILE THAT MAY HELP ANSWER A FEW OF OUR QUESTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TO WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...THE
DRYING TREND AND FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOK ON
TRACK.
12Z PSR RAOB FROM THIS MORNING CAME IN QUITE A BIT DRIER IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAN ANTICIPATED...MUCH DRIER THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS. THE
DRIER AIR CERTAINLY WANES OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER-POP FCST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ESTIMATED MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIOS COMING IN
AROUND 10G/KG. FURTHERMORE...PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM/ INDICATE IT SHOULD BE RAINING OVER CENTRAL
PHOENIX RIGHT NOW /DURING THE 12-18Z PERIOD/...AND CLEARLY THAT IS
NOT THE CASE. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL SITTING IN A GOOD SPOT FOR SOME
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE WAY OF UVV AND JET DYNAMICS /RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 65-85KT JET MOVES OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 00Z/.
12Z TWC RAOB FROM THIS MORNING IS QUITE A BIT MORE MOIST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH AN ESTIMATED MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIO CLOSER TO 13-14
G/KG. PSR SOUNDING AND KIWA VAD WIND PROFILES BOTH INDICATE A DECENT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND...WHICH COULD HELP ADVECT SOME OF THE MORE
MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT THE PROFILE ALSO
INDICATES VEERING...WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY /DRIER/ FLOW IN PLACE
FROM ABOUT 8K FT AGL ALOFT. THUS...DIFFICULT FORECAST IN STORE FOR
TODAY...NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SEEMS THE DRY LINE
OVER THE WESTERN CWA MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD NOW WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT MUCH OF PHOENIX WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY/WEST SIDE OF ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST...WHERE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES...THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. WILL
GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT FOR AT LEAST THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME...AND HIGHLIGHT THE MORE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES FROM
THE FAR EAST VALLEY EASTWARD. WILL ALSO MONITOR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE TODAY...IN HOPES OF AN UPDATED MOISTURE
PROFILE THAT MAY HELP ANSWER A FEW OF OUR QUESTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TO WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...THE
DRYING TREND AND FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOK ON
TRACK.
Wow, the dew point has dropped dramatically!
My swamp cooler is actually working.
My swamp cooler is actually working.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Well we are getting one of the nice fall transition storms here hopefully late tonight/tomorrow. Cold front should be moving through already drawing moisture up. Looks like storms heading this way already. Flash Flood Watch for Midnight through tomorrow afternoon. Possibly over a inch of rain for us.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Oh and this thread is as good as any to announce I am going back to school to finish my meteorology degree. I hope to improve forecast accuracy to sometimes correct.
DemsMyBoys
ASFN Icon
Oh and this thread is as good as any to announce I am going back to school to finish my meteorology degree. I hope to improve forecast accuracy to sometimes correct.
Congratulations!!!
BTW: It rained yesterday morning on the 101 from the Super Walmart south to the Cold Stone headquarters. Windshield wipers and everything.
Last edited:
OP
OP
Definitely an "Olbinski" out there tonight and tomorrow! It's up to a 90% chance of rain on Wednesday
Woo Hoo!!!! I want RAIN!!
Congrats, Noel!
Congrats, Noel!
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Definitely an "Olbinski" out there tonight and tomorrow! It's up to a 90% chance of rain on Wednesday
Sweet. I need to take more naps then lol. Go in for a nap and they up it lol.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
I don't even think O will be disappointed in the next 24 hours.
See how much can change for me Linda in just over a week since I met you and DCR lol.
NoelPHX
Space for Sale
Definitely an "Olbinski" out there tonight and tomorrow! It's up to a 90% chance of rain on Wednesday
So are we going to be graced with any Oblinski weather photos?
Similar threads
