playoff chase

[elindholm]

Ten Western Conference teams look like contenders for playoff spots. In order of current standings:

Warriors
Blazers
Rockets
Grizzlies
Mavericks
Clippers
Spurs
Suns
Hornets (edit: Pelicans, oops)
Thunder

The Thunder's record will improve dramatically if their key players stay healthy. Of those ten teams, the one the Suns are most likely to finish above is almost certainly the Hornets. But to make the playoffs, they'll have to get ahead of one other. Who's the best target?

 

[SirStefan32]

Ten Western Conference teams look like contenders for playoff spots. In order of current standings:

Warriors
Blazers
Rockets
Grizzlies
Mavericks
Clippers
Spurs
Suns
Hornets
Thunder

The Thunder's record will improve dramatically if their key players stay healthy. Of those ten teams, the one the Suns are most likely to finish above is almost certainly the Hornets. But to make the playoffs, they'll have to get ahead of one other. Who's the best target?

I was just looking at the standings two days ago, and it really does not look good. One of the teams (other than Pelicans) needs to implode in order for Phoenix to sneak into playoffs. If I had to guess now, the Suns are not going to make it.

EDIT:
I voted for Dallas, as I can see Dirk's agen catching up with him, Rondo not fitting in, Ellis hitting a slump, perhaps an injury for Chandler, etc.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I was just looking at the standings two days ago, and it really does not look good. One of the teams (other than Pelicans) needs to implode in order for Phoenix to sneak into playoffs. If I had to guess now, the Suns are not going to make it.

If pressed I would also guess that we miss the playoffs. It's not a real long shot but I'd give us less than a 50 - 50 chance of getting there. We struggle to beat teams like the Cousins-less Kings and we've given away wins on our home court to some really bad teams. But I think the team still has to approach it as if the postseason was within reach. We are nowhere near the team I thought we'd be at this point and unless that changes, we'll be on the outside looking in. I still think we have enough talent to become a playoff team whether it's by them playing up to that level or from a mid-season trade.

Steve

 

[SirStefan32]

If pressed I would also guess that we miss the playoffs. It's not a real long shot but I'd give us less than a 50 - 50 chance of getting there. We struggle to beat teams like the Cousins-less Kings and we've given away wins on our home court to some really bad teams. But I think the team still has to approach it as if the postseason was within reach. We are nowhere near the team I thought we'd be at this point and unless that changes, we'll be on the outside looking in. I still think we have enough talent to become a playoff team whether it's by them playing up to that level or from a mid-season trade.

Steve

And that's the wild card right there. As things stand right now, I say we miss playoffs, but I don't think it would take much for the Suns to improve enough to pass one of the other teams. We'll see what McD is cooking up.

 

[Ronin]

I picked the Clippers. I want to see that team crash and burn, for whatever reason that team rubs me the wrong way.

 

[Hoop Head]

I picked the Grizzlies because I don't see their bigs staying healthy, Randolph & Gasol, plus their role players are really up there in years, Prince & Carter. If they stay healthy then they'll stay in the playoffs but if one, or both, of their frontcourt go down I think that will bring them down quite a bit. Also it looks like they'll end up dealing Koufos eventually and if they do that takes away a quality big who could fill in for a stretch.

I really think there should have been a "none of the above" because barring a significant injury on another team I don't see the Suns holding onto their spot.

 

[Bufalay]

I pick the spers because I hate them.

 

[Errntknght]

I chose the Clips because I think they have limited depth but the truth is that most of the teams have a couple of players they could very ill afford to lose for long - assuming we do well enough to stay close and ahead of the Hornets, now known as the Pelicans.

50-50 is about right, maybe a bit optimistic

 

[SirStefan32]

I chose the Clips because I think they have limited depth but the truth is that most of the teams have a couple of players they could very ill afford to lose for long - assuming we do well enough to stay close and ahead of the Hornets, now known as the Pelicans.

50-50 is about right, maybe a bit optimistic

In my opinion, 50-50 is being way too optimistic. Each one of those teams is clearly better than the Suns. Not quite sure how to quantify their chances, but they are pretty damn slim. Their only hope is that another team completely implodes while they improve significantly.

 

[BC867]

In my opinion, 50-50 is being way too optimistic. Each one of those teams is clearly better than the Suns. Not quite sure how to quantify their chances, but they are pretty damn slim. Their only hope is that another team completely implodes while they improve significantly.

Again, there is another factor as the season wears on.

Teams that play power ball require less precision and get more calls from the refs down the stretch (and certainly in the playoffs).

Teams that play small and rely heavily on 3-point shooting have to be better to be even.

I agree with your assessment that 50-50 is being way too optimistic.

Even if we swap one of our 3 lead Point Guards for a big man, it will still leave theSuns with 2. And I don't expect that it will change the overall philosophy.

As Horny just said, we are too small to too weak rebounding.

Climbing from tiny to good enough just won't be good enough. And even good enough is not good enough.

There is also the Suns philosophy of pitting its players against each other for playing time or role identification. It doesn't promote teamwork. 'Another reason why we won't be even good enough in a competitive NBA.

 

[SirStefan32]

Again, there is another factor as the season wears on.

Teams that play power ball require less precision and get more calls from the refs down the stretch (and certainly in the playoffs).

Teams that play small and rely heavily on 3-point shooting have to be better to be even.

I agree with your assessment that 50-50 is being way too optimistic.

Even if we swap one of our 3 lead Point Guards for a big man, it will still leave theSuns with 2. And I don't expect that it will change the overall philosophy.

As Horny just said, we are too small to too weak rebounding.

Climbing from tiny to good enough just won't be good enough. And even good enough is not good enough.

There is also the Suns philosophy of pitting its players against each other for playing time or role identification. It doesn't promote teamwork. 'Another reason why we won't be even good enough in a competitive NBA.

While I agree with (power-ball all the way!) I do want to point out that when it comes to "wear and tear", the Suns do have an advantage over a lot of teams because they are so young. The oldest impact player is Dragic who just entered his prime and doesn't have as much wear and tear on his body as an average 29 year old player.

 

[BC867]

While I agree with (power-ball all the way!) I do want to point out that when it comes to "wear and tear", the Suns do have an advantage over a lot of teams because they are so young. The oldest impact player is Dragic who just entered his prime and doesn't have as much wear and tear on his body as an average 29 year old player.

The "wears on" to which I referred is the refs blowing less whistles at physical play as the season wears on.

The Suns will come out on the short end, as they usually do.

 

[AzStevenCal]

In my opinion, 50-50 is being way too optimistic. Each one of those teams is clearly better than the Suns. Not quite sure how to quantify their chances, but they are pretty damn slim. Their only hope is that another team completely implodes while they improve significantly.

I think we're better than the Pelicans (or the Hornets as they are called here) and right now, we're better than the Mavericks. I expect the Mavericks to fix their current issues but I also think that the Spurs and Thunder are vulnerable (age and injuries). We'd need a little luck to stay in front of the Thunder or to pass the Spurs but odds are one of the teams above us will lapse at some point. We may not be 50-50 but IMO, we don't miss it by much.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

The "wears on" to which I referred is the refs blowing less whistles at physical play as the season wears on.

The Suns will come out on the short end, as they usually do.

It used to be a big difference but I don't think it is anymore. I know I read something recently (I think it was on Clutchfans) that said refs called almost 4 more fouls per game in the playoffs as they do the regular season. There is still probably an advantage to the tougher groups as teams expect more fouls to be ignored so they play more physically but it's changed a lot in the past decade IMO.

Steve

 

[Hoop Head]

The Spurs always coast until after the All Star break, they have the same team they've had the last 3-4 years also so they are in a similar position as OKC is as far as starting slow but building on that later. They'll be tough to overcome later in the year because they will be playing their best to close out the season. They also have the best coach in the NBA. There is no way they miss the playoffs.

 

[BC867]

It used to be a big difference but I don't think it is anymore. I know I read something recently (I think it was on Clutchfans) that said refs called almost 4 more fouls per game in the playoffs as they do the regular season. There is still probably an advantage to the tougher groups as teams expect more fouls to be ignored so they play more physically but it's changed a lot in the past decade IMO.

Steve

And that where the men get separated from the Suns.

 

[Sci Fi]

Detroit's play after Josh Smith left might indicate the Rockets are vulnerable.

 

[sunsfan88]

I still think we'll be just short of making the playoffs unless we acquire a player who is a difference maker.

 

[elindholm]

assuming we do well enough to stay close and ahead of the Hornets, now known as the Pelicans.

LOL, oops, sorry!

 

[elindholm]

All of you guys saying that the Suns probably won't make the playoffs need to re-read the poll prompt.

 

[Phrazbit]

The Mavs are the most realistic hope. They have a lot of guys with questionable injury history, the Rondo trade was a big gamble.

The only other teams I think we could hope to beat out are the Spurs and Thunder, both because of health concerns.

I do think we will be a major player in the mid-season trade talk. If we were to land someone like David West without paying out the nose it could vault us over some of these teams we're talking about.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The Mavs are the most realistic hope. They have a lot of guys with questionable injury history, the Rondo trade was a big gamble.

The only other teams I think we could hope to beat out are the Spurs and Thunder, both because of health concerns.

I do think we will be a major player in the mid-season trade talk. If we were to land someone like David West without paying out the nose it could vault us over some of these teams we're talking about.

I agree. We have to steal 3 or 4 road games from some of the top teams in order to make up for our home losses to Detroit, Orlando, Milwaukee and Miami and West might be enough to do it for us. But I don't know what we trade for him? If it cost us IT, it would hurt us perhaps as much as he helps us. Maybe a 3 team trade where we gave up our pick, the Minny pick and Green and Tucker (&Randolph if necessary to make the money work)? That isn't much but he's on the decline and although he's got another year at 12 per, he has a player option.

Steve

 

[sunsfan88]

I think our losses to sub .500 teams will bite us in the ass just like last year. We aren't even 2 full months into the season and we already have 7 losses to sub .500 teams; Utah, Denver, Pistons, Bucks, Nuggets, Kings & Magic.

 

[BC867]

I think our losses to sub .500 teams will bite us in the ass just like last year. We aren't even 2 full months into the season and we already have 7 losses to sub .500 teams; Utah, Denver, Pistons, Bucks, Nuggets, Kings & Magic.

That is a good point. A team that does not have a killer (winning) instinct limits its future. And everyone associated with it (the Front Office, coaches and players) shares in the responsibility.

But, with the exception of Barkley, let's face it, our Suns have always been a . . .

When Tina Turner always did her grand finale of her version of Proud Mary in concert, she would say, "We're going to start out doing it nice and easy but, then, we like to do it nice and rough." And the lighting and music would explode.

Our Suns have never gotten past nice and easy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIMAJoZtC-Q

 

[Chaplin]

That is a good point. A team that does not have a killer (winning) instinct limits its future. And everyone associated with it (the Front Office, coaches and players) shares in the responsibility.

But, with the exception of Barkley, let's face it, our Suns have always been a . . .

When Tina Turner always did her grand finale of her version of Proud Mary in concert, she would say, "We're going to start out doing it nice and easy but, then, we like to do it nice and rough." And the lighting and music would explode.

Our Suns have never gotten past nice and easy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIMAJoZtC-Q

That is a fact of life in the NBA. The Suns aren't going to win the championship, but it isn't going to be because they lost to 7 teams they should have beat.

Take a look at the Spurs for example. They have 13 losses on the season:

New Orleans x2
Portland x2
OKC
Memphis
Dallas
LA Lakers
Utah
Brooklyn
Sacramento
Houston

There are few good West teams in there, but there are also a bunch of cupcakes that they shouldn't have lost to either. EVERY team, even the good ones, go through some kind of stretch where they lose to teams they shouldn't have.