Possible Replacement for Amare?

[Cheesebeef]

If they believe this I have a bridge...

people's probably thinking the same thing about us if we replace Amare with David Lee.

bottom line... I don't believe it for the Spurs either and more than likely, Pop doesn't as well, but when a guy has won you 4 titles and is the greatest superstar your team has ever or will ever had, he goes out on his terms. Nash hasn't earned that right with this team... and to be honest, one of the reason I want to see him traded is because I WANT him to still have that opportunity with another team to win a title.

 

[SunsTzu]

Pistons: The exception to the rule... and interesting enough, they are the ONLY team who only won 1 title in this run.
Miami: Wade #3 pick and Shaq
Celtics: A combination of top 3 picks, but an aging dynasty which has a three year run

Not to nitpick but all 3 of those teams only had 1 title in that run(unless the Celtics win this year) and Detroit had more consecutive conference finals appearances than any other team during that run.

 

[elindholm]

In only his 2nd year, in 1986, he took the team to the Finals. 3 Finals runs.

Yep, you're right. I realized after I went to sleep that I had forgotten Olajuwon was already playing by 1986. I confess I wasn't paying as careful attention then, since the Suns were mired in their drug scandal aftermath and I was in college on the east coast, where following a bad west-coast NBA team (with no internet) was fairly difficult.

That's a whole lot in any book.

I agree. I concede the point. A transcendent superstar can make a team relevant for many years, and for the Suns, the best chance of getting one is through the draft, which probably means being lousy for a while. If they want to win a title, their best chance may be to accept the pain of losing for several years.

But here's one more thought. I wonder whether the era of the transcendent superstar might be over. In the last ten years, we've had only two: Duncan and Bryant. (It's hard to count O'Neal since he's always been option 1-A at best and has such a lousy work ethic.) Up through the Jordan/Olajuwon era, even the NBA's best players had spent a few years in college. I wonder whether those destined for transcendency learn something irreplaceable in their college programs about discipline, focus, and long-term thinking. Jordan continues to speak highly of Dean Smith, for example, which suggests that he sees his time at North Carolina as something essential to making him the player he was.

Similarly, Duncan graduated from Wake Forest before entering the NBA. As for Bryant? Well, his father played in the NBA, so he saw the lessons that way. I would guess that, while he was in high school, he got a lot of advice from his father about how to prepare and how to focus.

Now the league's biggest stars are all coming in after a single year of college, at the most. Maybe that's the reason that they don't understand the mental energy that's needed for long-term success. I think everyone would agree that James is mentally not as strong as Bryant, even though James's physical gifts are probably greater. Howard, Anthony, Stoudemire -- all in the same boat. Wade, the jury's still out; we'll see if he ever gets back to the Finals, but I'm skeptical.

The Spurs aren't in the same position we are. They're not facing losing their 2nd most important player.

Based on what has happened in their last four playoff runs, I think Stoudemire is the Suns' second most important player only by default. I'm not convinced that he makes that much of a difference. I guess we'll get the chance to find out.

 

[Joe Mama]

I said Nash didn't have the fall-away, fall-down, jumper in the paint anymore. He is much slower than 2 years ago to have enough legs after 20 seconds of dribbles through paint, bumping the bigs and smalls and still hit that last moment lying-down jumper. He gets increasingly more often blocked on his pullup jumpers these playoffs too.

But I agree with you on his being as effective in 30 min as he was in 38, with a slight twist. He absolutely need to save his legs both in-game by drastically reducing dribble compared to 2 years ago, and carefully manage his health over the regular season for better physical condition in playoffs. I reiterate, he must downgrade his on-court role to more Stockton-like.

And I agree with you as well. It's not just that it wears out Nash to run all over the place dribbling the ball for the first 20 seconds of the shot clock. I don't think the team is as good when he's doing that.

I hope it works out that Steve Nash can retire as a Phoenix Suns. I mean I really hope he can bring us a championship, but that looks difficult if Amare leaves. Still, I would not be against moving him if we could get some good building blocks. I just wouldn't do it this summer. I would do it around the trade deadline if it looks like we aren't going anywhere. That's when teams would pay the premium for his services anyhow.

Especially, anyone has yet to come up with an argument that Amare signed at market price this offseason would not yield very good assets next year in a trade or two, with good enough likelihood. So, why not go for that 5% and break it up with better asset in your hands then than now!

PS: as an analogy for Amare haters, I hate Microsoft with my gut for their monopolizing the world with their business practice, but I'd still buy their stock at a high price if I believe I could profit from doing so. youknowwhatimsayin'?

We would only really want to trade him next summer is if he's underperforming or injured. One would think that either one of reasons along with a brand-new mega contract would make it difficult or impossible to move him for good pieces. It may be difficult to move him regardless with the uncertainty about the new CBA.

Anybody have any expectations on what it might cost to re-sign Channing Frye? I mean I think I could see a team giving him the mid-level. He's 6-11, spreads the defense, and I could see him continuing to improve as well. I love Lou, but I don't see how he's back. They need to get Earl Clark his time. So where does that leave us with regards to the salary cap if Amare Stoudemire leaves without a sign and trade? I'm not thinking about signing free agents. I'm thinking about picking up assets by absorbing a few million dollars in role players in order to help facilitate somebody else's trades. It seems quite possible that the salary cap could be lower than teams had planned, and they may need some help to get a couple maximum deals under that salary cap. Let's say Channing Frye gets a deal starting at $4.5 million and Amare Stoudemire walks. Where does that leave us?

Joe Mama

 

[elindholm]

Let's say Channing Frye gets a deal starting at $4.5 million and Amare Stoudemire walks. Where does that leave us?

Ballpark $47.6 million. But then you have to add minimum cap holds for the unused roster spots, which add up to another few million. With the cap at $56.1 million (I think I read somewhere), the Suns would be looking at MLE money to work with, or possibly a few dollars more.

If the Suns want to be significant FA players this summer, they have to dump Barbosa onto a team that can absorb his contract.

But the good news is, the Suns will have some healthy distance from the luxury tax line (which is $69.9 million this season), even if Stoudemire stays. So adding a role player, or buying a pick, is definitely in play if they can find someone they like.

 

[illone]

I hope Stat sticks around, but I think it's a longshot.

The Suns are contenders right now and taking Amare out of the mix will hurt the team IMO.

This is only his first year being taught how to play defense and I think he can improve.

That said, I can't think of many good replacements for him. He is one of the top PF in the game today, tough to replace that.

 

[tobiazz]

I hope Stat sticks around, but I think it's a longshot.

The Suns are contenders right now and taking Amare out of the mix will hurt the team IMO.

This is only his first year being taught how to play defense and I think he can improve.

That said, I can't think of many good replacements for him. He is one of the top PF in the game today, tough to replace that.

Bill Cartwright has been with the Suns, so someone must have been directly instructing Amare about defense for at least two years. I don't think it's fair to treat him like a rookie when it comes to defense. It would be great to see a slight improvement in his defense, but I would be shocked by more than that.

 

[illone]

Bill Cartwright has been with the Suns, so someone must have been directly instructing Amare about defense for at least two years. I don't think it's fair to treat him like a rookie when it comes to defense. It would be great to see a slight improvement in his defense, but I would be shocked by more than that.

The thing with Amare is that he is virtually unstoppable against every team in the league except ONE. The Lakers are the only team that has enough length to slow him down.

He's one of my fave players and I hope he sticks around, but I see your point, the guy is a vet and should be a lock down defender at this stage of his career.

 

[Cheesebeef]

hmmm... I'm starting to look at this this way. This was basically a whole new Suns team this year, so far away from the 2004-7 era and teams who just come together for the first time usually take their lumps in the playoffs before they win it all. So, what am I saying? Screw it... Give him the MAX, keep this team together and hope that this year was just that annual rite of passage first year of playoff heartbreak for a new team and a bunch of players who never got this far before. Next year, with everyone back (except hopefully Barbs), I expect big improvements from Lopez and Dragic and I even expect Clark to improve, which would be huge for us because he could bring size to the court. Then, when they face the Lakers again, they won't be so damn tight in Games 1 and 2 and we can get over the mountain.

that being said, if Amare walks, i say blow it up.

 

[slinslin]

Anybody have any expectations on what it might cost to re-sign Channing Frye? I mean I think I could see a team giving him the mid-level. He's 6-11, spreads the defense, and I could see him continuing to improve as well. I love Lou, but I don't see how he's back. They need to get Earl Clark his time. So where does that leave us with regards to the salary cap if Amare Stoudemire leaves without a sign and trade? I'm not thinking about signing free agents. I'm thinking about picking up assets by absorbing a few million dollars in role players in order to help facilitate somebody else's trades. It seems quite possible that the salary cap could be lower than teams had planned, and they may need some help to get a couple maximum deals under that salary cap. Let's say Channing Frye gets a deal starting at $4.5 million and Amare Stoudemire walks. Where does that leave us?

Joe Mama

Probably at 10M$ or so under the cap. I think Frye would be massively overpaid for the full MLE and would not want to sign him for that on a long term contract just before the new CBA.

Rather save the money and offer Dirk Nowitzki something starting at 14M$.

Btw Chad I have been trying to contact you and Andy for some time now, check your email or private messages pls or contact me with new contact details.

 

[OldDirtMcGirt]

I said Nash didn't have the fall-away, fall-down, jumper in the paint anymore. He is much slower than 2 years ago to have enough legs after 20 seconds of dribbles through paint, bumping the bigs and smalls and still hit that last moment lying-down jumper. He gets increasingly more often blocked on his pullup jumpers these playoffs too.

But I agree with you on his being as effective in 30 min as he was in 38, with a slight twist. He absolutely need to save his legs both in-game by drastically reducing dribble compared to 2 years ago, and carefully manage his health over the regular season for better physical condition in playoffs. I reiterate, he must downgrade his on-court role to more Stockton-like.

Nash shot a whopping 71% in the paint this year. He was knocking down that fall away shot with consistency this year, I don't know how you could expect better from an unathletic 6'2" guy.

 

[OldDirtMcGirt]

Especially, anyone has yet to come up with an argument that Amare signed at market price this offseason would not yield very good assets next year in a trade or two, with good enough likelihood. So, why not go for that 5% and break it up with better asset in your hands then than now!

PS: as an analogy for Amare haters, I hate Microsoft with my gut for their monopolizing the world with their business practice, but I'd still buy their stock at a high price if I believe I could profit from doing so. youknowwhatimsayin'?

Because if we're mired in mediocrity or are not that competitive, teams will lowball us and drive down Amare's market value. The fact of the matter is that trade value is less dependent on a particular player's skillset than it is on the team's situation. If we're committed for a long period of time to a player that can't get us over the hump, then we lack the leverage in any trade situation, as the other team's know that we can't rebuild unless we unload him.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Lots of interesting thoughts all around on the thread. I'm still trying to digest the season, and get my thoughts straight, as it sounds everyone else is. The great debate of rebuild on the fly vs. gut it and hope is a very difficult one to answer, and I'm not sure there really is one way to build a championship squad.

There is much to be said about having the best player in the league, and that being the key to win a championship. Of course, sans Jerry West gifting the Lakers Gasol for the pu pu platter, the Lakers may still be a middling team, even with Kobe at his best. (It's amazing how effective Bryant was in this series, probably his best that I remember, and he doesn't even drive to the hoop anymore...I can only remember a handful of times that he actually took it to the rim, which used to be a good 50% of his game)

I still go back and forth over whether or not to sign Amare to a max deal. Some are of the opinion that you cripple yourself if you sign a guy to a max deal who aren't named Wade, Lebron or Kobe. I don't think that is the case, and considering there is no chance we'll get any of those players anytime soon, I'd roll the dice with Amare. Is there major risk involved giving Amare max or near max money? Of course, but outside of the aforementioned 3, there will be plenty of other players who will make max money who may not deserve it. I'd have Amare higher on the list in terms of those kinds of players. (Melo, Dirk, Bosh, even Howard after his playoff flop) In addition, we'll have neither the money nor requisite resources to acquire any of these types of players in the near future, so it's either stick with our flawed star, or get nothing. With all his imperfections, I think he's worth the risk, especially considering the alternatives.

Considering the uncertainly of most of the West, staying pat and keeping our current roster together almost guarantees us of remaining competitive over the next 3-4 years. Nash certainly shows no signs of slowing down, and Goran looks like he could take over the starters role at the tail end of Nash's career, ala Stockton/Ho Eisley in Utah. Robin Lopez looks like one of the few legitimate centers in the NBA, and as he matures, he should be a perfect foil for Amare's shortcomings. Earl Clark certainly didn't contribute a ton this year, but he had a ton of very talented bench players in front of him, and he certainly flashed the talent to expect a Goran/Robin like jump in his 2nd year.

I'm not as down on Leandro as some are...he's been fighting through injuries over the last two years, and is also a couple years removed from being 6th man of the year. In addition, we really don't have a replacement for him, so unless we get a vet for a good deal, it looks like he'll stick around. With Dud and Grant at 3, we should be set for the time being. After getting a couple games, and really, a couple shots away from a finals appearance, I hope that Sarver keeps this squad together. Considering we have no flexibility and no draft picks, it seems to be the best course of action at this point.

 

[Errntknght]

You've laid out the problem well, Chris, though when I look at the Amare situation I come down on the other side of the fence. I have to admit, the main thing is probably emotional - it made me sick to my stomach to watch Amare playing with zero fire against the Lakers, and I never want to see it again. I'm officially an Amare hater, now - he's the first Suns player to ever reach that status with me.

For the most part I just take players as they are - its the coaches job to teach, plan, scheme, direct, threaten, cajole and excite the players to reach the highest plateau their given talents allow. I'm far more likely to blame the coach than a player. There have been other players over the years that seemed only to lack the fire to become much better, but most of them quickly faded away. Charles Barkley was the closest parallel to Stoudemire but in his case I blamed Westfall for Charles' slack play on defense because I thought he had the weapons to make him change - and, it wasn't the case that Sir Charles was more slack in the playoffs.

I didn't even hate Penny Hardaway even though his mouthing off and undercutting the coaches was disgusting and I was happy when he was shipped off. On the court he gave his best effort, IMO, as (literally) lame as that often was on defense.

Of course, I have my laundry list of reasons I think its a mistake to give Amare the amount he wants and believes he deserves - the easiest way to believe you are an elite player is to get paid like one. But, like most people, my rational reasons are almost certainly secondary to my emotional one. Of course, I can be bought - if Amare would play for us for about 8 mil, I'd risk future torture at his hands.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm officially an Amare hater, now - he's the first Suns player to ever reach that status with me.

I'm sorry but McDyess takes #1 on this list for disliked Suns players.

The thing about Amare, he does not deserve the max but he is the Suns best big man like him or not. If the Suns do not get a quality big man to replace him the Suns are a worse team.

 

[AfroSuns]

There is much to be said about having the best player in the league, and that being the key to win a championship. Of course, sans Jerry West gifting the Lakers Gasol for the pu pu platter, the Lakers may still be a middling team, even with Kobe at his best. (It's amazing how effective Bryant was in this series, probably his best that I remember, and he doesn't even drive to the hoop anymore...I can only remember a handful of times that he actually took it to the rim, which used to be a good 50% of his game).

Excellent observation here, i cant help but think if those jumpers werent falling we'd be in the finals right now. He was unbelievable.
I hope Lopez can really develop his game in the off-season, he only showed up for one game and hopefully his back will be a lot better.

 

[tobiazz]

You've laid out the problem well, Chris, though when I look at the Amare situation I come down on the other side of the fence. I have to admit, the main thing is probably emotional - it made me sick to my stomach to watch Amare playing with zero fire against the Lakers, and I never want to see it again. I'm officially an Amare hater, now - he's the first Suns player to ever reach that status with me.

Not even Diaw?

 

[taz02]

Sign amare to his extension. There simply is not a better option for a PF.

Are there any options for a starting sf?

Maybe we could get more size, better rebounding and defense at sf and bring hill off the bench.

We have the mle and some pretty nice trade assets.

 

[cly2tw]

Against emotional hatred, there is nothing to do about. The higher the expectation, the deeper the disappointment.

ODMG,

1. Nash hits FT by 94% but can't win games with FT as MJ with less than 80%. His shooting 72% in the paint is a testament of his smarts and shot selection. My point is that he could no longer win games for us with his pullups and acrobatic fall-downs as he could to some extent 2 years ago. I'm not bashing Nash, but was only pointing out the misperception that Lee would score more on Nash's feeds than Amare has. That's only wishful thinking.

2. As to teams low-balling us, tell me what you would expect teams to offer us for Amare right now if he were say on a 5-year max contract. Even without the fundamentals improvement, teams would have given him a max if his health were no issue. And teams lowballed Kerr for that reason alone before deadline. Other teams had no information about Amare's conditions and feared the winner's curse. Kerr's refusal to give Amare an extension was a strong signal that the team with insider information has their doubt. As ASUCHRIS said, despite his deficiencies, he is at least at the same level of Melo, Howard, Dirk, Bosh. And these people have re-sale value on the market.

 

[cly2tw]

Originally Posted by ASUCHRIS View Post
There is much to be said about having the best player in the league, and that being the key to win a championship. Of course, sans Jerry West gifting the Lakers Gasol for the pu pu platter, the Lakers may still be a middling team, even with Kobe at his best. (It's amazing how effective Bryant was in this series, probably his best that I remember, and he doesn't even drive to the hoop anymore...I can only remember a handful of times that he actually took it to the rim, which used to be a good 50% of his game).
Excellent observation here, i cant help but think if those jumpers werent falling we'd be in the finals right now. He was unbelievable.
I hope Lopez can really develop his game in the off-season, he only showed up for one game and hopefully his back will be a lot better.

That's astute observation indeed. The explanation is, our defense particularly against their bigs sucked big time, particularly in first 2 games, and particularly with Amare losing focus then and Frye lacking confidence then. Kobe just thredded us by passing on high post to their cutting and rotating big men in Gasol and Odom, stationed or a little dribble. Against our zone, he nailed all the jumpers needed in crucial moments to keep the defense honest. It's highly improbable for us to advance thus far and stay competitive with the Lakers with our constantly re-inventing ourselves on the run, both on offense and defense, throughout whole post season.

 

[Cheesebeef]

As ASUCHRIS said, despite his deficiencies, he is at least at the same level of Melo, Howard, Dirk, Bosh. And these people have re-sale value on the market.

he's not at their level... maybe Bosh, but he's not looked at in the same regard as Melo, Howard and Dirk. Him, Bosh and Joe Johnson are all tier 2 stars. PERFECT #2s, but pretty poor number 1s if you really want to contend.

 

[cly2tw]

he's not at their level... maybe Bosh, but he's not looked at in the same regard as Melo, Howard and Dirk. Him, Bosh and Joe Johnson are all tier 2 stars. PERFECT #2s, but pretty poor number 1s if you really want to contend.

I wouldn't argue about that in principle. Dirk and Melo have proven to be more reliable 1st option offense indeed, while Howard's offense is far worse than Amare's to carry a team. Bosh is the smoother player with better rebounding. But next to a dominant guard like Nash, Wade, Ellis, Rose, Paul or even Devin Harris, I'd pick Amare ahead of Bosh on that team. With such a duo, Amare's presence creates so much space for everybody, it's unreal and a big reason why it's easy his team scores. That's synergy not as simple as adding up two great individual players.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Lots of interesting thoughts all around on the thread. I'm still trying to digest the season, and get my thoughts straight, as it sounds everyone else is. The great debate of rebuild on the fly vs. gut it and hope is a very difficult one to answer, and I'm not sure there really is one way to build a championship squad.

There is some debate about which direction we should go in, but there is one way to build a championship team and that's getting a HOF player in his prime. Of course that will not guarantee a ring but it will at least get you in the conversation. Might not be as hard as you think either if we play our cards right.

There is much to be said about having the best player in the league, and that being the key to win a championship. Of course, sans Jerry West gifting the Lakers Gasol for the pu pu platter, the Lakers may still be a middling team, even with Kobe at his best.

That's not true. The trade looked completely lopsided at the time, but Marc Gasol turns out is a pretty good NBA center. Memphis got decent value considering today's NBA where everyone is broke.

(It's amazing how effective Bryant was in this series, probably his best that I remember, and he doesn't even drive to the hoop anymore...I can only remember a handful of times that he actually took it to the rim, which used to be a good 50% of his game)

Agreed, he won this series for the Lakers. I told Donald after Game 4 that Kobe better have some tricks up his sleeves because he's going to have to single-handedly win it for the Lakers. Sure enough he did just that and probably cemented his legacy as one of the top 15-20 players to ever play. If the Lakers beat Boston he probably is remembered top 10. The guy was simply unreal all series.

I still go back and forth over whether or not to sign Amare to a max deal. Some are of the opinion that you cripple yourself if you sign a guy to a max deal who aren't named Wade, Lebron or Kobe. I don't think that is the case, and considering there is no chance we'll get any of those players anytime soon, I'd roll the dice with Amare. Is there major risk involved giving Amare max or near max money? Of course, but outside of the aforementioned 3, there will be plenty of other players who will make max money who may not deserve it. I'd have Amare higher on the list in terms of those kinds of players. (Melo, Dirk, Bosh, even Howard after his playoff flop) In addition, we'll have neither the money nor requisite resources to acquire any of these types of players in the near future, so it's either stick with our flawed star, or get nothing. With all his imperfections, I think he's worth the risk, especially considering the alternatives.

I disagree here, I think we have no choice but to let Amare go. I'm pretty certain Nash doesn't want him here if there's other options available. Amare is also not on the same level as any of the above-mentioned players, I shudder to think what an immature, selfish player like Stat would do being the alpha dog on an NBA team. At least the above has taken teams to the playoffs (including some deep runs) annually or close to it. If I'm Steve Kerr I do everything I can to stay competitive and appease Nash while planning a big FA spending spree to surround our youth with when he retires after this contract. Amare bogs us down for several years.

Considering the uncertainly of most of the West, staying pat and keeping our current roster together almost guarantees us of remaining competitive over the next 3-4 years. Nash certainly shows no signs of slowing down, and Goran looks like he could take over the starters role at the tail end of Nash's career, ala Stockton/Ho Eisley in Utah. Robin Lopez looks like one of the few legitimate centers in the NBA, and as he matures, he should be a perfect foil for Amare's shortcomings. Earl Clark certainly didn't contribute a ton this year, but he had a ton of very talented bench players in front of him, and he certainly flashed the talent to expect a Goran/Robin like jump in his 2nd year.

There's no uncertainty in the West. The Lakers will be better than us on paper for the next 2-3 years and OKC is poised to make the jump. Other than that, nobody knows until free agency shakes out.

I'm not as down on Leandro as some are...he's been fighting through injuries over the last two years, and is also a couple years removed from being 6th man of the year. In addition, we really don't have a replacement for him, so unless we get a vet for a good deal, it looks like he'll stick around. With Dud and Grant at 3, we should be set for the time being. After getting a couple games, and really, a couple shots away from a finals appearance, I hope that Sarver keeps this squad together. Considering we have no flexibility and no draft picks, it seems to be the best course of action at this point.

Leandro is very replaceable and he commands a decent chunk of change.
I think it's inevitable that he's gone this offseason. Nice guy, decent player, but doesn't fit our plans now or going forward when Dragic is going to get 30 minutes a night often playing with Nash on the floor. I think you'll see them find someone who only plays D and shoots three's to replace him.

 

[Errntknght]

I'm sorry but McDyess takes #1 on this list for disliked Suns players.

No problem with McDyess leaving after his first visit here... Coach Ainge messed with mind on the court and I expected him to bolt. More miffed with him the second time, our training staff fixed him up and he barely gave us the time of day before he pranced off.

 

[Errntknght]

Lets move on to more important matters, like what it will take to keep Frye in the fold. Just kidding about Frye, but Lopez future is suddenly a lot more problematic and that is a bigger concern for me.