Possible Replacement for Amare?

[AzStevenCal]

Also its unbelievable that some are ready to throw Amare under the bus after struggling against arguably the best, big physical front line on the planet just after he was instrumental in killing the Suns biggest demon of the last decade.

He dropped 42 points with 12 boards on Duncan without RoLo. I'm not sayin he's the answer just that he's been a huge part of the Suns run from the all star beak until just a few days ago.

I don't think he was all that instrumental in the Spurs sweep. Yes, he had one very good game but he was weak in a lot of areas throughout that series and even more so against Portland. I understand why his stats were down against LA but they were just as bad during the Portland/SA games. I think people have overlooked his lack of effort because we were winning but the evidence is there.

I agree he's been a huge part of our run since the All-Star break but this high level of play ceased 18 games ago.

Steve

 

[Chaplin]

Also its unbelievable that some are ready to throw Amare under the bus after struggling against arguably the best, big physical front line on the planet just after he was instrumental in killing the Suns biggest demon of the last decade.

He dropped 42 points with 12 boards on Duncan without RoLo. I'm not sayin he's the answer just that he's been a huge part of the Suns run from the all star beak until just a few days ago.

I don't know what's so confusing. Yes, the guy can have a good game. He has the talent to have huge games every night. But he just doesn't do it. Period. You don't give max money to a player like that.

Pros:
-- Can put up 40 points any given night
-- Can rebound over 10 any given night
-- Can block 3 shots any given night

Cons
-- "Given Nights" happen about twice a month.
-- Rebounding HIGHLY unreliable
-- Can't defend a chair
-- Seems to not try as hard at times
-- Due for more knee surgery/problems
-- Occasionally shows a "me first" attitude
-- Gets rattled easily

This is a guy that wants to get paid like Kobe Bryant and Dwayne Wade. He's not even close to being like that.

For the record, I like what he brings to the Suns. For his talent, this system is perfect for him, even though he seems to have peaked in many areas (defense, rebounding). But I am absolutely not willing to pay him Kobe money for what he brings. It would cripple us for years.

 

[Sunburn]

This thread should be renamed "Dream Replacement for Amare"

 

[elindholm]

Even if we were to get rid of Barbs opening up cap room, signing a Boozer or David Lee will set this team back GREATLY from where we are now and will only keep us from ever really getting better.

Why? Their contracts would be for only a few years, probably five maximum.

which seems to be the way this franchise has almost always operated when they've put together true contenders.

Jeez, it's the same tired argument every time. You don't build a contender from scratch in five years. If you don't think the Nash Suns can contend, fine, but there's no way on earth that the Suns will have a better team within five years. They have no useful draft picks, no major young talent, and no real cap space until summer 2011 at the earliest -- and that's assuming that there's going to be a 2011-12 season at all, which many regard as unlikely.

I can't understand why people think that intentionally sucking for a couple of years in order to rebuild through the draft is an attractive strategy. The only team it has worked for in the past 30 years is the Spurs, and they don't even really count, because they lucked out with the Robinson situation in order to pair him with Duncan. Cleveland tanked into James and got nowhere. The Thunder might prove to be a success story, but it's already been three years since they got their franchise player, so they're not going to make the five-year window. The Heat did well with Wade, but only by pairing him with O'Neal, which was possible only because they already had a ton of tradeable talent on their roster.

All of you who advocate tanking, can you come up with any cases that I missed where it looks like a good idea in hindsight? Anyone?

There is no harm done in maintaining a solid team for as long as you can, so long as you aren't screwing up your long-term finances. Signing Lee for something like $65M/5 while Nash and Hill ride off into the sunset doesn't do any structural damage to the team's future -- especially when you consider the alternative.

 

[jandaman]

Lee haters need to get a perspective.


- No one in the league except Duncan, Bosh, Nowitski, Howard would be an "UPGRADE" from Stoudemire scoring wise.

- Lee is 20/12 with Duhon as point guard... and NO ONE else to take defensive attention away from him.


- Lee with the Suns will score 4-6 points a night off offensive put backs alone.
- Lee's 9+ defensive rebounds will prevent 4-6 points a night from second chance points alone.
- Lee's defensive rebounding will create 3-4 fast break opportunities alone.


Suns were a double double guy away from Finals appearance....


- Lee at Half the salary Stoudemire wants is a GREAT thing for the Suns, as they can get more "pieces" to help.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

Long time Lee advocate here. I'd take him in a heartbeat....

 

[AzStevenCal]

All of you who advocate tanking, can you come up with any cases that I missed where it looks like a good idea in hindsight? Anyone?

I'm not sure any of us are actually advocating tanking. Look, if you buy into the belief that we already have our point guard and center of the future it's a little easier to believe that we can survive the rebuild process. Additionally, we also have a quality wing man or a tradable asset that can land us our wing of the future. With this scenario we're looking at a few tough years followed by a few years of ladder climbing but we're hardly going to be in pre-James Cleveland territory.

Now, if you have serious reservations about the young pieces we currently have in place then selling off the older talent starts to look pretty scary. My feeling though is unless Lopez and Dragic actually are the real deal we're dead soon anyway. And by soon I pretty much mean the day we let Amare go for less than equal value.

Steve

 

[jandaman]

The one issue I can see presenting itself with Lee instead of Stoudemire

- Against the Celtics and other half court defensive teams that rely 1 on 1 defenders at the post positions. Stoudemire against Garnett, put a lot of pressure on Garnett, basically it prevents Garnett from helping on other defensive lapses.

Lee will not get that much attention from Garnett, hence thats why Nash will need to make Lee adapt quickly to the pick and roll so those types of teams (with one on one defenders at the post) will get punished.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Why? Their contracts would be for only a few years, probably five maximum.



Jeez, it's the same tired argument every time. You don't build a contender from scratch in five years. If you don't think the Nash Suns can contend, fine, but there's no way on earth that the Suns will have a better team within five years. They have no useful draft picks, no major young talent, and no real cap space until summer 2011 at the earliest -- and that's assuming that there's going to be a 2011-12 season at all, which many regard as unlikely.

I can't understand why people think that intentionally sucking for a couple of years in order to rebuild through the draft is an attractive strategy. The only team it has worked for in the past 30 years is the Spurs, and they don't even really count, because they lucked out with the Robinson situation in order to pair him with Duncan. Cleveland tanked into James and got nowhere. The Thunder might prove to be a success story, but it's already been three years since they got their franchise player, so they're not going to make the five-year window. The Heat did well with Wade, but only by pairing him with O'Neal, which was possible only because they already had a ton of tradeable talent on their roster.

All of you who advocate tanking, can you come up with any cases that I missed where it looks like a good idea in hindsight? Anyone?

There is no harm done in maintaining a solid team for as long as you can, so long as you aren't screwing up your long-term finances. Signing Lee for something like $65M/5 while Nash and Hill ride off into the sunset doesn't do any structural damage to the team's future -- especially when you consider the alternative.

Let's just take a look at the last, I don't know... 30 years to see who's won titles and who they're best player was in that span?

80's:
Lakers - Magic/Kareem - two NUMBER ONE draft picks
Celtics - Bird - Number 2 draft pick
Pistons - Isiah - Number 1 draft pick

90's:
Bulls - Michael Jordan - Number 3 draft pick
Houston - Olajuwon - Number 1 draft pick
Spurs - Duncan - Number 1 draft pick

2000's:
Lakers: Shaq - #1 draft pick (and yes, he didn't start there, but the bottom line is it's LA and LA can get players of this magnitude in FA... we can't).
Spurs: Duncan - Number 1 draft pick
Pistons: The exception to the rule... and interesting enough, they are the ONLY team who only won 1 title in this run.
Miami: Wade #3 pick and Shaq
Celtics: A combination of top 3 picks, but an aging dynasty which has a three year run
Lakers: Kobe was the 13th pick but that's because HS'ers were unknown commodities AND he threatened not to play with anyone except LA.

Bottom line - if you're going to win a title, you HAVE TO HAVE a BEYOND Special talent and the only place you get that is in the draft... or you do what the Suns have done for years which is getting a star via trade or FA who's already well into the prime, giving yourself a small window to get it done.

I don't really care about this "5 year plan" thing you've thrown out there. I'm interested in this team winning a title at some point and unless you have an owner willing to spend to the hilts or a great accumulation of picks/players/circumstances, the best way you do that is to realize you're done and build through the draft, where if you strike gold, you're window is open for a decade instead of a couple years.

Just my opinion.

 

[tobiazz]

Let's just take a look at the last, I don't know... 30 years to see who's won titles and who they're best player was in that span?

80's:
Lakers - Magic/Kareem - two NUMBER ONE draft picks
Celtics - Bird - Number 2 draft pick
Pistons - Isiah - Number 1 draft pick

Bird was a #6 pick.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_NBA_Draft

Isiah was a #2.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_NBA_Draft

(I never knew Tony Gwynn was drafted by the Clippers in addition to the Padres.)

 

[Cheesebeef]

Bird was a #6 pick.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_NBA_Draft

Isiah was a #2.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_NBA_Draft

(I never knew Tony Gwynn was drafted by the Clippers in addition to the Padres.)

doesn't change my argument all that much. Bottom line, you need transcendant players to win or even get to the NBA Finals... we never have that because we never allow ourselves to truly rebuild once a run is over.

 

[ninous26]

As much as Amare was a dissapointment this series, you guys are all taking him and his skills for granted.. Lets see some key points and facts there.

-Amare got the suns into the playoffs, hands down you cannot argue with that.

- He played MVP status in the 2nd half of the season.

- He had NO help against the Lakers, the lakers bigs were all taller than him and there was 3 of them to one of him. Lopez didn't play nearly enough minutes to help out.

- One on One.. He would take a huge dump all over Bynum, Pau, and Lamar. Easily. He is better than all 3 and more dominant that all 3.. Again, reason he sucked is because it was 3 on 1 and he was doubled even tripled at times.

Amare is a lot better than you think and far from a choker IMO of course.

 

[Errntknght]

The more I think about Lee, the more I like him to replace Amare. Take a look at the stats for the PF-C for last year - the list is the top 10 scoring guys among them, and includes most of the people we're talking about as potential replacements - David Lee is #5, btw. Statistically, he's a steal at 12M... and a nice bonus is that he doesn't appear to have any health issues. (Played 81 games each of the last three years.)

Per game stats for PF and C that rank in the top ten in scoring.
Player GP FG% FTA FT% REB AST ST TO BK PF PTS
aldridge,lamarcu 78 .495 3.9 .757 8.0 2.0 .8 1.3 .6 2.9 17.8
duncan,tim 78 .518 4.8 .725 10.0 3.1 .5 1.7 1.4 1.9 17.8
gasol,pau 65 .536 5.6 .790 11.2 3.3 .5 2.2 1.7 2.3 18.3
howard,dwight 82 .612 10.0 .592 13.1 1.7 .9 3.3 2.7 3.5 18.3
kaman,chris 76 .490 4.0 .749 9.2 1.5 .4 2.9 1.2 2.8 18.5
jamison,antawn 66 .461 4.5 .647 8.4 1.2 1.0 1.3 .3 2.7 18.7
lopez,brook 82 .499 6.2 .817 8.6 2.2 .6 2.4 1.6 3.0 18.8
west,david 81 .505 4.2 .865 7.4 2.9 .9 2.1 .7 2.8 19.0
boozer,carlos 78 .562 4.9 .742 11.2 3.1 1.0 2.7 .4 3.4 19.4
lee,david 81 .545 4.1 .812 11.7 3.6 1.0 2.3 .4 3.1 20.2
randolph,zach 81 .488 5.7 .778 11.7 1.8 .9 2.1 .4 2.7 20.7
stoudemire,amare 82 .557 7.7 .771 8.9 1.0 .6 2.5 1.0 3.4 23.1
bosh,chris 70 .518 8.4 .797 10.8 2.3 .6 2.4 .9 2.4 23.9
nowitzki,dirk 81 .481 7.2 .915 7.6 2.6 .8 1.8 .9 2.5 25.0

(sorry about the column alignment... it was fine before I pasted in this editor)
2nd edit... okay, its the top 14 not top 10... I wanted aldredge to be listed)

 

[dodie53]

let's say he is far from a choker but he lacks desire.
sometimes he is very lazy imo.

 

[dodie53]

what about possible trades for LB?
and
is Frye coming back?

 

[Mainstreet]

doesn't change my argument all that much. Bottom line, you need transcendant players to win or even get to the NBA Finals... we never have that because we never allow ourselves to truly rebuild once a run is over.

Well the Suns certainly had a chance to rebuild and did so after the mid 1980 drug scandal.

 

[tobiazz]

doesn't change my argument all that much. Bottom line, you need transcendant players to win or even get to the NBA Finals... we never have that because we never allow ourselves to truly rebuild once a run is over.

I was just correcting the facts. I agree with your argument.

Unlike past years, I have no idea what the Suns should do this off-season. I was for trading Amare last off-season in order to stockpile prospects, and the Suns tried to. Curry + Goran would have been an exciting duo to build on since Goran can play off the ball for stretches. I'm glad the Suns made it into the WCF but rebuilding correctly will be very difficult now.

*** While you must build through the draft, you need to do it quickly enough that you don't end up in a MINN/Garnet situation where that one star makes your team too good to get more top-5 picks. We have no pieces to trade for extra good picks so rebuilding now might turn us into a team that sucks for a decade. We would have to have luck in the lottery for three years in a row and make the correct pick each year. I don't like the odds of that happening.

 

[elindholm]

you need transcendant players to win or even get to the NBA Finals...we never have that because we never allow ourselves to truly rebuild once a run is over.

But most of those teams got their transcendent players without rebuilding. That's the point you seem to be unwilling to recognize.

I'm interested in this team winning a title at some point and unless you have an owner willing to spend to the hilts or a great accumulation of picks/players/circumstances, the best way you do that is to realize you're done and build through the draft, where if you strike gold, you're window is open for a decade instead of a couple years.

The facts don't back you up. The best way is to be lucky, flexible, and opportunistic.

The Celtics were treading water until lightning struck and they were able to add Garnett and Allen in the same off-season. Had you been a Celtics fan four years ago, you would have advocated blowing the team up, which would have meant ditching Pierce. Similarly, you would have told the Heat to dump Jermaine O'Neal (edit: make that Caron Butler) and Odom for rebuilding pieces, rather than wait until they could parlay them into Shaq. To be consistent, you would have had to tell the Spurs to get rid of Duncan in 2002, when Robinson was on his last legs and the Spurs hadn't yet added Parker or Ginobili with late picks.

Tanking sometimes works, but statistically it's no better a strategy than staying competitive.

 

[Folster]

Similarly, you would have told the Heat to dump Jermaine O'Neal and Odom for rebuilding pieces, rather than wait until they could parlay them into Shaq.

I imagine you just got mixed up, but it was Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, and Brian Grant who were traded by Miami for Shaq.

I agree with your post though. As fans we are all to eager to blow things up and rebuild as the answer which is not a strategy in of itself. Good scouting, opportunistic moves, and a bit of luck are the best strategy. The Lakers turned Eddie Jones and Vlade Divac into Kobe Bryant. They later took Caron Butler, an asset acquired in the Shaq trade and took a gamble on Kwame Brown. The gamble didn't pay off, but they were able to package his expiring contract with a couple draft picks and nab Pau Gasol. They could have blown it up a few times during that span but did not and now have a couple more trophies to show for it.

 

[tobiazz]

The Lakers turned Eddie Jones and Vlade Divac into Kobe Bryant.

It only took Divac :-/

Jones was traded for Glen Rice and change.

 

[elindholm]

I imagine you just got mixed up, but it was Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, and Brian Grant who were traded by Miami for Shaq.

Whoops, that's right. I had J. O'Neal swapped in for Butler. Thanks. Actually, it makes my argument stronger.

 

[devilalum]

I don't know what's so confusing. Yes, the guy can have a good game. He has the talent to have huge games every night. But he just doesn't do it. Period. You don't give max money to a player like that.

Pros:
-- Can put up 40 points any given night
-- Can rebound over 10 any given night
-- Can block 3 shots any given night

Cons
-- "Given Nights" happen about twice a month.
-- Rebounding HIGHLY unreliable
-- Can't defend a chair
-- Seems to not try as hard at times
-- Due for more knee surgery/problems
-- Occasionally shows a "me first" attitude
-- Gets rattled easily

This is a guy that wants to get paid like Kobe Bryant and Dwayne Wade. He's not even close to being like that.

For the record, I like what he brings to the Suns. For his talent, this system is perfect for him, even though he seems to have peaked in many areas (defense, rebounding). But I am absolutely not willing to pay him Kobe money for what he brings. It would cripple us for years.

I agree with all of this. All I was sayin is that without Amare the Suns don't even make the playoffs. Look at his stats from the All Star break to a week ago. He was awesome.

 

[Cheesebeef]

But most of those teams got their transcendent players without rebuilding. That's the point you seem to be unwilling to recognize.

The Bulls, the Rockets, the Spurs, the Heat, the Celtics, the Pistons all got there by the draft where they got their transcendant player and then they had 10 year runs in them. The Lakers got there because they're LA and they are the most attractive franchise in the NBA. We aren't that.

It's you that ignores the fact that we aren't LA and will NEVER be able to offer what that city does for athletes.

The facts don't back you up. The best way is to be lucky, flexible, and opportunistic.

What are you talking about? The Bulls, Rockets, Celtics, Pistons were all NOTHING before they got their franchise player. The Heat were nothing before they got their Franchise Player, who was the guy who was the reason Shaq wanted to go there and is now the guy you can STILL build around.

And you know what fact DOES back me up? The Suns have never won a title with their "always rebuilding on the run".

The Celtics were treading water until lightning struck and they were able to add Garnett and Allen in the same off-season. Had you been a Celtics fan four years ago, you would have advocated blowing the team up, which would have meant ditching Pierce.

What are you talking about? The Celtics hitting rock bottom and getting the numebr 5 pick and having Al Jefferson is WHAT ALLOWED THEM to do what they did. They had tradable assests to rebuild around a 28 year old Superstar. You want to build around a 36 year old old man without a #5 pick and with no 20/10 big under contract. But, yeah, you got me on that one!

Similarly, you would have told the Heat to dump Jermaine O'Neal (edit: make that Caron Butler) and Odom for rebuilding pieces, rather than wait until they could parlay them into Shaq.

Huh? Wade, Odom and Butler only played together for ONE year and then they WERE shipped off for O'Neal. That team basically was terrible and... wait for it... parlayed the draft of the #5 pick into their Franchise player and CAP SPACE and the previous year's #9 pick to get the pieces necessary in order to be able to trade for O'Neal. They basically PROVE EXACTLY WHAT I'M TAKLING ABOUT.

To be consistent, you would have had to tell the Spurs to get rid of Duncan in 2002, when Robinson was on his last legs and the Spurs hadn't yet added Parker or Ginobili with late picks.

And now I will just tell you you're smoking crack. Duncan had already proven himself to BE the TRANSCENDANT player, winning a title already who hadn't even hit his prime yet. In what possible world you could extrapolate that I would think they would need to TRADE the TRANSCENDENT player they already had in order to rebuild is seriously beyond me.

Seriously with the above? I get that you're upset about last night and don't like having your opinion questioned, but that doesn't mean you have to go full ****** on me.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Whoops, that's right. I had J. O'Neal swapped in for Butler. Thanks. Actually, it makes my argument stronger.

seriously... you're argument doesn't make any sense. The Heat were AWFUL the year before Wade... but they had a lot of salary cap room and a #5 pick. They ended up adding Wade, Butler and Odom that off-season and then went to the playoffs and after they lost, they turned Odom and Butler into Shaq and that was that.

Basically, they were horrible and used the #5 pick and salary cap space to rebuild. We don't have ANY OF THAT. They completely rebuilt their team within just 2 years (which makes your "it takes 5 years to rebuild" theory look pretty wrong) and they got there by being horrible and opening up cap space.

 

[AfroSuns]

I don't think he was all that instrumental in the Spurs sweep. Yes, he had one very good game but he was weak in a lot of areas throughout that series and even more so against Portland. I understand why his stats were down against LA but they were just as bad during the Portland/SA games. I think people have overlooked his lack of effort because we were winning but the evidence is there.

I agree he's been a huge part of our run since the All-Star break but this high level of play ceased 18 games ago.

Steve

Wow!! Amare is not instrumental in our wins against the Spurs? Every team we played in the post-season had to double or triple team Amare. JRich was playing hot because he was open in those series, because of who.....? When we played a front-line of bigs that were able to contain Amare, what happened to JRich? One on one Amare would decimate anyone on the offensive side, can you say the same as Lee, how many double team does Lee command, grass is surely greener...... Where is this Dirk that had Dampier, Haywood, Marion (rebound magnet), Butler when the Spurs sent them fishing. Amare's defense/rebounding sucks but let anyone name 3 players that can guard Amare one on one in this league.
Lakers knew Nash and Amare are the Suns Aces and they did a good job of defending them. Put a player like Odom beside Amare and we will be talking of winning it all. Fans suddenly developed amnesia after the Suns were eliminated, forgetting Amare's play in the 2nd half of the season plays a crucial role in Suns getting the 3rd seed. I really really hope Amare signs somewhere where they have a semi-talented big man who can rebound well.
Amare has his limit and we all know where they lie and when he leaves and we dont get something close to his offensive output, all this myopic view of defense only is going to come crashing down when the Suns barely make the playoffs next season.