Prediction time

Chris_Sanders

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It's a week away...who will the Suns select?

Draft history:

Nailed Zarko and Amare as the Suns selections. Bombed on the Podkolzine pick (though I did preface it by saying I felt the Suns would trade the pick).

At the risk of being burned by big euros again...

The Suns will select Martynas Andriuskevicius if he is at their pick. The Suns have been in love with this guy since last year.

Failing that they will take Johan Petro, who reportedly destroyed Diogu in his workout for the Suns.
 
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Chris_Sanders

Chris_Sanders

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Oh and Suns fans will boo...oh yes they will...since Diogu will still be on the board.
 

asudevil83

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i dont think the suns draft Martynas Andriuskevicius for 3 reasons:

1.) Euro's are a huge gamble.
2.) Diogu is a better player now.
3.) the suns are in "win now" mode, and need a guy who can make an immediate impact on the team. Martynas doesnt fit that mold one bit, while diogu does.

i could be wrong, but i just dont see the suns picking a project big man. with the slim roster we have now, and the need to spend money rounding it out, it would make sense from a money standpoint to draft a guy who will actually get playing time.
 

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Chris_Sanders said:
Oh and Suns fans will boo...oh yes they will...since Diogu will still be on the board.

To bad Cotton won't be there to berate them and tell them how sorry they'll be.
 

devilalum

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As an ASU alum I'd love to see Ike in a Suns uniform next season but all along I've tried to keep in mind that my bias influences my judgement.

The Suns are one of the best teams in the league at judging talent. If they don't like Ike I'm fine with that.

Its not like they're some pathetic local franchise desperate to put a few more butts in the seats and would take Ike as a PR move.
 

sunsfn

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KloD said:
I thought the draft was Tuesday? Is it next Sunday?

Yes, it is Tuesday the 28th.

Chris_Sanders was thinking about whom to pick more than when.. :D


Johan Petro if he is there, Mickael Gelabale if he is not there.
(I think)
 

Amare32

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I'm hoping we pick Ike but have a feeling the Nets may select him.
 

Arizona's Finest

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okay guys you heard it here first.....I have been doing a lot of research on the draft and looking into team needs, who is going to fall where, and what kind of players the suns like and traditionally take...After much reading of interviews and quotes about workouts (and knowing how the suns like to sway people on whom they like as a player) I believe the suns will select UW guard Nate Robinson pick thus securing Barbosa's fate out the door (i think leo was rex's boy anyway)...At first when i came to this conclusion i was not at all happy....But after reflecting there are a few reasons i like this pick

1)Robinson is a freak athlete and will be able to defend point guards a few inches taller due to his build and leaping ability. This is important when the turnstile that is Nash is your PG (taking nothing away from nasty but his "D" can be a problem.

2) More than any other team Robinson fits the team. If JJ plays the point Robinson can slide into the two guard and pick up points and boards. He is taylor made to run up and down the floor with the suns and will add another leaper to finish on the break. And at 21 it is usually a boom or bust proposition, with the odds being bust. With Robinson you have a player, whom there is no way he will not be a contributer to a team. To strong willed of a kid. Much like Pat Tillman when he was drafted in the 7th round, you knew despite the lack of measurables, there was just no way this guy wasn't going to make the team. Which brings me to my favorite quality about Nate....

3) The balls on this kid are ridiculious. As you all may or may not know I am a big time UA alum and i watch most every game a season. In watching our chief competition from the last 2 years, I really grew a big time respect for Robinson. I mean he is the one player i would watch and just absolutly freeze everytime he touched the ball at the end of the game. He wasn't the best shooter but he made them when he had too. And his dunks, diving for loose balls or big time rebounds were just such obvious game changers that I can say that there are not 5 other players in the nation who would have led that UW team to wins against the Cats (UA always played well in those games but lil' Nate always was there with the dagger.....)

If he is the pick no one should be dissapointed because while i cant promise multiple all star berths i can assure you he would be a big time part of the 8 man rotation and that should be enough at the 21st pick......
 

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I think Ike is one of the guys who will have a solid career, even if he is a career sixth man. He also seems like a great, intelligent guy. But even if he is available at 21, I don't think the Suns will take him. He seems like the popular choice, which is how you know they won't take him. :eek:

I think they will try to trade up and take the best "skills" guy available. That means someone who can contribute now, is fast, and can shoot. Probably a guy like Garcia, Wright, etc.

If they fail to move up, or such a player does not fall to 21 (almost certain), I think they will take the guy they feel has the most potential. Maybe Blatche or Petro.

When it comes down to it, if their pick makes us think "WTF??!!!?" then that is probably a good indication the player could be very good one day.

Edit: By the way, how much would you guys love to see the Sun's draft board? :cool:

If they stay at 21: Blatche, Petro, MA, Jack, Diogu, McCants

If they move up to late lottery: Graham, Warrick, Ukic, Garcia


The Chapman factor could be interesting. He didn't feel he was part of the brain trust. Did he also leave partially because BC considered moving Barbs to move up? Also, Chapman likes Garcia, so I can't imagine he would be mad about them trying to move up to get him. I would have to bet there was something said that pushed Rex over the edge to make him leave at this time. Rex may have some idea of who the Suns hope and expect will drop. Maybe they want to move up to block Rex from picking such a player for Minny.

They will not take Nate Robinson. You cannot play him in with Nash, ever.
They will not take Taft.
They will not take May.
 
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elindholm

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I'll stick with my Roko Ukic pick, for no good reason other than inertia.

One question, though: Are we predicting whom the Suns actually take at #21, or which first-round player they end up with as the result of a trade?
 
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Chris_Sanders

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elindholm said:
I'll stick with my Roko Ukic pick, for no good reason other than inertia.

One question, though: Are we predicting whom the Suns actually take at #21, or which first-round player they end up with as the result of a trade?

I am predicting who they will take. I don't think Martynas will be there at 21
 

elindholm

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I am predicting who they will take. I don't think Martynas will be there.

Hey, wait a minute, that's cheating!

I predict the Suns will select Bogut if he is there.
 
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Chris_Sanders

Chris_Sanders

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elindholm said:
I am predicting who they will take. I don't think Martynas will be there.

Hey, wait a minute, that's cheating!

I predict the Suns will select Bogut if he is there.

LOL I don't think we have what it takes to move up and take the next Big Country.
 

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"They will not take Nate Robinson. You cannot play him in with Nash, ever."

Number one he would be the back up point guard so i would'nt worry about having to play him w/ Nash to often

Number two Iwould never say never. There is probaly a 5-10 minute portion of every game where those two could play in the back court together.

...my thing is the one thing Q did provide that is difficult to replace is tenacity. There are not many guys who like to mix it up like Q and N'Rob. I'm not saying this is a slam dunk pick but unless they are enamored with the idea of stowing away a Euro, I dont think the other wings they like are there for the picking.
 

Chaplin

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Nate Robinson is not a #21 talent. He's barely a #30 talent.

Sure, Earl Boykins is nice, but there's only one Earl Boykins in the entire league--that doesn't mean all of a sudden Robinson is going to become "another" Earl.

Players under 6'? STAY AWAY Phoenix!
 

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I think we all might be reaching on what we think we are going to get at the number 21 pick....I would like a kid who could come out and be a stud from day one (or even a little bit down the road) but i dont think history has shown that those type of players will be there. Maybe Nates projected to go in the 2nd but thats where analysts think of him, not basketball front office people. He is small and I'm not president of his fan club or anything. I'm just looking at a player who i feel would fit in well ( i feel the same about garcia but im not sure he will be there.....) and that i know the Suns are thinking about him.....
 

Mainstreet

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I think the player the Suns probably covet most is Franciso Garcia who will likely not be there. However, even when ASFN did their mock draft, I came up with Nate Robinson as their pick through the process of elimination.

Now, I'm just high on Nate Robinson for his ability to backup Nash and his tremendous skills and ability to push the ball, shoot and penetrate.

It really doesn't matter if a player is considered a reach if he can play. And he plays the Suns style of ball. I really want the Suns to move down a notch or two in the draft to pick up some more pick(s) if Garcia is not there. This could be a dangerous strategy, however, so the Suns need to know what they are doing. If in doubt, draft Robinson.

I like the depth of this draft (see Ainge thread).
 

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I would love to see Ike on the Phoenix Suns, but I don't think he'll be on the board at #21. Even though he lumbers up and down the floor he is so good in the low post, and he has such a nice shot I don't think 20 other players will go before him. I honestly think he could shoot the NBA three-pointer with a nice percentage.

Chris Taft
Johan Petro
Francisco Garcia (he will probably be gone as well)

Blatche is my dark horse.

There's only one guy that might be on their radar at #21 who I would be really disappointed with. That's MA. There's no doubt in my mind that he is going to be a bust. In fact I just read a scouting report from DraftExpress that said exactly the same thing. Their head scout watched a lot of video on each of the European center prospects in the draft, and he was extremely disappointed with MA.

BTW the draft is Tuesday evening.

Joe Mama
 
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Joe Mama

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http://draftexpress.com/viewarticle.php?a=189

Possibly the biggest enigma of this draft, Andriuskevicius is a kid that few have actually seen quality minutes of, but many like to rank and talk about. Thanks to our contacts in Lithuania and other parts of Europe, we've managed to put together a decent chunk of this athletic, 7-3 teenager's minutes on tape over the past season. The results were pretty disappointing for me to watch personally, especially considering how highly most people in the States think of him. And while there is no doubt that this kid has awesome physical attributes and potential, he does very little to actually bring that out on the court right now.

First the good. In terms of height, he is absolutely huge, with a pair of arms that just refuse to end. He appears to have good hands as well. Martynas is indeed extremely athletic just as he is billed, 7 feet plus or not, the kid can move. He has excellent footspeed and is very quick to get up and down the court and move in all directions. He also can get off the floor very nicely to block shots thanks to a good vertical leap. To call him mobile would be an understatement. Offensively, he has a very nice stroke from outside, with range out to (and probably beyond) the European 3 point line. He can put the ball on the floor quickly and take almost anyone who tries to guard him on the perimeter off the dribble, being able to handle the ball with either his left or right hand equally well.

Now the bad, which unfortunately there is plenty of at this early stage of his career. Martynas looks physically and mentally overwhelmed every time he steps out on the court against players that are older than him (which at this point is basically everyone). The word skinny is thrown around a lot when it comes to European players, but with Martynas we are talking about something truly chronic. His frame is extremely frail, with narrow shoulders (almost like a young Keon Clark or Shawn Bradley, but with even less upper body strength) that leave you in serious doubt whether any type of weight lifting or nutritional program will help fix this in the next few years. He lacks the strength to do anything around the basket when he is being challenged, as even the slightest shove makes him completely lose his composure. 6-7 power forwards with a little bit of meat on their body toy and have their way with him with the greatest of ease at this point in his career.

Watching him play against decent competition is a little bit nerve racking. He looks like he is made out of glass sometimes, like even the most casual foul has the potential to shatter him into pieces. How this kid is going to manage to stay healthy while being pushed around every day in practice and in games in the NBA has to be a serious concern. He is a poor rebounder because of this lack of strength, but also because he does not even attempt to box out his man, as that would most likely be futile for him to even try.

Defensively, he can block some shots because of his size, wingspan and athletic ability, but he is also extremely foul prone; biting on pump fakes, using his hands too much, getting caught out of position on rotations, and lacking the footwork or lateral quickness to be able to stay in front of his man if he is taken out of the paint. This basically neutralizes any notion of him being able to guard power forwards in the NBA at 7-3, as he would be a huge liability defensively. I can't understand why one would want a long and athletic 7 footer anywhere else but in the paint altering shots anyway, but I guess that's just me.

On top of that, you have to wonder a little bit about his mental toughness as well. Beyond the fact that he floats to the perimeter way too much and doesn't appear to be the most contact loving big man in the world, it's not hard to see that he has a tough time dealing with the pressure of the Euroleague, whether it's at home or on the road. He looks very nervous and lost most of the time, missing free throw after free throw despite his excellent mechanics and shooting touch and getting very down on himself when things don't go his way. He just doesn't appear to be very comfortable in his own skin at this point, which is somewhat understandable considering that there just shouldn't be this much pressure on the kid at such a young age, it's just not natural. We can only imagine how much this problem will be magnified as a high pick in the NBA.

Watching him play, there was little doubt in my mind that he just isn't good enough at this point to get significant playing time in the Euroleague or maybe even the watered down Lithuanian league, especially considering the ambitions of his team (Zalgiris is and probably always will be the flag bearers of Lithuanian basketball). Martynas had a place (as small as it may have been) in his team's rotation for most of the year, but he is apparently not happy with the way he's being developed, and thinks he's ready to move on to the next level, before he's done anything at the one he's at right now. Instead of working hard to improve both physically and from a skills standpoint so he would be able to play a role for his team next year, he seems to be trying to take a shortcut and jump straight to the NBA. I don't think there is any doubt in anyone's mind that this kid is two years away at the very least from being able to play any type of role in the NBA. It's obvious that he should stay in Europe for at least another season to mature physically and mentally, along with gaining experience through playing time in a friendly environment, but he still insists on going over there regardless.

Looking at the history of the NBA draft, how many European players have been drafted after averaging less than 5 points per game (and he averages 2) during their last season and have ever had any type of impact for their team over the course of their career? If Martynas decides to make the jump this year and comes straight over, he's going to have "bust" written in big letters all over his forehead. And that's a shame, because he truly is a wonderful talent. It's just not his time yet.

We decided to pull him off the mock draft a few weeks ago already, and since then everyone else appears to have followed suit. Contrary to published reports, though, he has not pulled his name out of this year's draft yet. He will most likely be in Chicago during pre-draft week and, according to Lithuanian sources, will be escorted to the States by legendary Lithuanian trainer Aleksandras Kosauskas, who works with the Lithuanian national team.
 

devilalum

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The thing about predicting who will be drafted is that there is almost no objective information to use to make your prediction.

Sites like NBA Draft are always full of quotes from GM's and other team officials. These guys are notorious for spreading disinformation and just plain lying about players. Teams intentionally audition tons of players to throw each other off and every agent in the world is out pimpin his client to anybody that will listen.

If you read these message boards you get subjective opinions from people that have watched a certain player in their home town or have followed a certain college team and watched a guy play but how do you put all this together and make a prediction that means anything?

I predict that the SUns will draft the best player available at #21 since they have actually seen every guy in the draft play and have the information necessary to formulate an objective opinion.
 

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