Preseason Week 3 Roster Battles and Questions

[oaken1]

Sir, this is a message board.

Right?? Time?? Hell, we don't even need all the data points.

 

[oaken1]

Was the expectation ever that he would beat out SMB (3 yrs 7.5 mil per year), Garrett Williams (a CB who they said had 1st rnd talent outside of the injury), and Max Melton (who they drafted in round 2)? If so why would you expect a CB to beat out other CBs who the team invested more into acquiring)

Because CB is notorious for rookie struggles?
If we have to trade a guy next year because we have too many good DB's I'm all on board with that.

 

[kerouac9]

Right?? Time?? Hell, we don't even need all the any data points.

FTFY

 

[Krangodnzr]

My point is that if you believe in your picks and FA signings, Jones is at best CB4 and is likely CB4 until SMB is a FA (2 years I think).

I don't think it's about "believing".

Any smart talent evaluator knows how often players bust. Throwing numbers at a position is a tactic when you can't throw more valuable 1st rounders at a position.

The drop off in hit rate from 1st and 2nd round to third round is statistically significant each round. After round three, hit rates for premium positions is pretty low.

 

[HairZach]

It creates a log jam of players at a position group which limits the ability of those players to make an impact. Conventional thinking would be that you would structure your position groups so that young players could get snaps so they can outperform veteran players and create rookie cap value.

The other part that made it weird is that he did this with both Tip and Jones which creates two 3rd round picks with inherently limited upside on their rookie deal.

The majority of round 3 picks are either JAGs or straight up busts, with CB busting at a higher rate than most positions. I think we just went with volume at CB because of how important the position is to todays game. If you can't defend against the pass you can't win. With how many young CBs we have, surely one or two will develop. If it turns out we have good DBs on the bench we should consider ourselves fortunate.

I don't think any NFL GM considers the rookie deal upside outside of the 1st round. Outside of the top half of the 1st round there are very few sure things. Once you get past pick 16 in most drafts GMs are just praying that they found someone who can actually be good.

 

[Chopper0080]

I don't think it's about "believing".

Any smart talent evaluator knows how often players bust. Throwing numbers at a position is a tactic when you can't throw more valuable 1st rounders at a position.

The drop off in hit rate from 1st and 2nd round to third round is statistically significant each round. After round three, hit rates for premium positions is pretty low.

To your point, despite the hit rate being low on 3rd rounders, we invested in a 3rd rounder who is CB4 if he hits.

 

[Chopper0080]

The majority of round 3 picks are either JAGs or straight up busts, with CB busting at a higher rate than most positions. I think we just went with volume at CB because of how important the position is to todays game. If you can't defend against the pass you can't win. With how many young CBs we have, surely one or two will develop. If it turns out we have good DBs on the bench we should consider ourselves fortunate.

I don't think any NFL GM considers the rookie deal upside outside of the 1st round. Outside of the top half of the 1st round there are very few sure things. Once you get past pick 16 in most drafts GMs are just praying that they found someone who can actually be good.

I don't understand how you can believe this and also believe it is a viable strategy to build a competitive roster through the draft.

That said, only 5 of our projected starters are players Monti has drafted so maybe that really isn't his strategy. (MHJ, Paris, Wilson, GWilliams, Melton) And if it is, he hasn't executed it very well to this point.

 

[Carolinacacti]

To your point, despite the hit rate being low on 3rd rounders, we invested in a 3rd rounder who is CB4 if he hits.

I thought they drafted these players for the new kicking rules. Maybe I’m wrong

 

[Cheesebeef]

How does Thomas making a HUGE step forward make Jones a weird pick?

Holy frack… now Starling Thomas has taken a HUGE step forward? What in the world is this hopium based on?

 

[football karma]

Holy frack… now Starling Thomas has taken a HUGE step forward? What in the world is this hopium based on?

in fairness...... from media reports, is **sounds** like Starling has taken a huge step forward

so did Marco Wilson at one point. Truth comes soon enough

 

[BACH]

The other part that made it weird is that he did this with both Tip and Jones which creates two 3rd round picks with inherently limited upside on their rookie deal.

What are you basing this on?

Reiman had the highest metrics score for any TE in 15 years. He has looked good in the Pre-season games. He didn’t take a single snap as McBride’s receiving TE role and played exclusively at the 12 role, Where he did good.

Jones scored really high on metrics as well.

That is upside!

 

[Krangodnzr]

To your point, despite the hit rate being low on 3rd rounders, we invested in a 3rd rounder who is CB4 if he hits.

No that's missing the point.

How quickly you forget what your take was on the signing of SMB. And Melton is far from a guarantee either. If Jones hits he could be, out and out a starter.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Holy frack… now Starling Thomas has taken a HUGE step forward? What in the world is this hopium based on?

He reportedly has.

So did Stephen Williams.

 

[BACH]

Holy frack… now Starling Thomas has taken a HUGE step forward? What in the world is this hopium based on?

Based on the information available.

It’s your biased interpretation that is at play here. When I write HUGE step forward you are thinking that I’m claiming He’s an all-Pro CB.

Never did.

I’m saying that an undrafted player with close to zero expectations took a HUGE step forward and looks like he Could be a really good #3 Or pontentially a #2 CB. All indications so far points to that.

 

[BACH]

Oh, well if PFF says it it's probably true and accurate.

Well. It tied to metrics, Which is better than just pulling stuff out your ass

 

[kerouac9]

Well. It tied to metrics, Which is better than just pulling stuff out your ass

It is not but do you.

 

[BritCard]

It creates a log jam of players at a position group which limits the ability of those players to make an impact. Conventional thinking would be that you would structure your position groups so that young players could get snaps so they can outperform veteran players and create rookie cap value.

The other part that made it weird is that he did this with both Tip and Jones which creates two 3rd round picks with inherently limited upside on their rookie deal.

What vets? SMB aside (who only just signed) there's nobody in the CB room with more than a year in the league.

I'm pretty sure during the offseason this entire board was crying out to draft cornerbacks and had no trouble double dipping in the draft, and this issue you have seems to stem solely from Starling Thomas making a leap instead of being the cut candidate we expected. Which seems like a good thing and not something anyone could plan for.

 

[BritCard]

My point is that if you believe in your picks and FA signings, Jones is at best CB4 and is likely CB4 until SMB is a FA (2 years I think).

Late 3rd round picks being CB4/5 for 2 years seems...normal?

 

[BritCard]

Holy frack… now Starling Thomas has taken a HUGE step forward? What in the world is this hopium based on?

I assume it's based on Gannon saying "he's not seen much separation between Max Melton, Starling Thomas and Kei’Trel Clark in the battle for the No. 2 spot opposite Sean Murphy-Bunting".

Which suggests a huge step forward considering he was like CB5 last year.

 

[kerouac9]

Which suggests a huge step forward considering he was like CB5 last year

He was CB2 at the end of last year.

 

[Chopper0080]

What are you basing this on?

Reiman had the highest metrics score for any TE in 15 years. He has looked good in the Pre-season games. He didn’t take a single snap as McBride’s receiving TE role and played exclusively at the 12 role, Where he did good.

Jones scored really high on metrics as well.

That is upside!

Metrics only matter if the player can get on the field. There are two ways Tip overcomes a 35% snap role.

1 - McBride gets hurt.

2 - McBride walks in FA.

Other than that, his role is capped. And if he is not great in his role as a blocking TE, it is a waste of draft resources. I don't mind the pick by itself, but the pairing with some of the players is strange.

Same with Jones. If he makes the roster Jones will be the 2nd oldest CB on our roster as a rookie. If he doesn't beat out SMB, GWilliams, and Max Melton (all who the Cardinals have invested more resources into) we have wasted a 3rd round pick on a CB4 who will get maybe 35% of defensive snaps on gameday.

 

[Chopper0080]

Late 3rd round picks being CB4/5 for 2 years seems...normal?

It can be but teams normally won't limit the upside of their own picks. They took an older prospect who in theory was more NFL ready to potentially have him as CB4 for his age 23-27 season on a roster that will likely limit his snaps over the first 3 of those seasons.

 

[Chopper0080]

No that's missing the point.

How quickly you forget what your take was on the signing of SMB. And Melton is far from a guarantee either. If Jones hits he could be, out and out a starter.

Throwing a bunch of resources at one position seems like a very Keim move. Reminds me of what he did at WR with AZ. Maybe it turns out differently, but it is just strange to me.

 

[BACH]

Metrics only matter if the player can get on the field. There are two ways Tip overcomes a 35% snap role.

1 - McBride gets hurt.

2 - McBride walks in FA.

Other than that, his role is capped. And if he is not great in his role as a blocking TE, it is a waste of draft resources. I don't mind the pick by itself, but the pairing with some of the players is strange.

Same with Jones. If he makes the roster Jones will be the 2nd oldest CB on our roster as a rookie. If he doesn't beta out SMB, GWilliams, and Max Melton (all who the Cardinals have invested more resources into) we have wasted a 3rd round pick on a CB4 who will get maybe 35% of defensive snaps on gameday.

$500 bet on Reiman breaks 45% snaps next year if he continue his progress?

 

[BritCard]

He was CB2 at the end of last year.

He started the last 4 games with Antonia Hamilton heading towards FA and Clark in the dog house. Let's not pretend he earned CB2 and wasn't just being put out there on a losing team whose season was over to get them experience. Those final 3 games were also Owen Pappoe's only significant snaps too.

Nobody expected him to be anything this year except a roster bubble player, and now he isn't.

It's not a problem that a 2nd year UDFA is beating out a rookie late 3rd round pick. That's a positive.