Preseason Week 3 Roster Battles and Questions

[Harry]

Can’t keep 5 RBs, though I like all 5. Sadly Carter seems to be the one whose role can be more easily filled by others.

 

[BritCard]

$500 bet on Reiman breaks 45% snaps next year if he continue his progress?

I think he does 45% this year.

Reiman has all the athleticism that Higgins has but with 40 more pounds and the ability to block. I think it's underselling Reiman to think he's just going to be in to block on run plays.

 

[BritCard]

Can’t keep 5 RBs, though I like all 5. Sadly Carter seems to be the one whose role can be more easily filled by others.

Probably. I think they might keep 5 initially before picking waivers up.

But I don't think it's inconceivable they keep 5 because of the new kick off rules.

In the XFL the rule saw a 97% return rate compared to 22% under NFL old rules. There will be a lot more kick returns this year and a lot more wear and chance of injury on returners. The question is whether someone like Demercardo can backup that role when it seems Weaver has been doing it in pre season.

 

[BACH]

I think he does 45% this year.

Reiman has all the athleticism that Higgins has but with 40 more pounds and the ability to block. I think it's underselling Reiman to think he's just going to be in to block on run plays.

I agree. Just because he has played exclusively in the 12 role with very limited number of routes doesn't mean that he will never run routes in the season. IMO it only shows that Petzing wants to make sure he's not a liability to send on the field for blocking.

FYI. TEs had 1653 total snaps of 1113 offensive plays. That number will grow this year.

 

[kerouac9]

And if he is not great in his role as a blocking TE, it is a waste of draft resources. I don't mind the pick by itself, but the pairing with some of the players is strange.

If he's just going to be a blocking TE, it is a waste of draft resources. He has to show something in the passing game to justify the pick. Otherwise you're better off getting your 3rd tackle some live game reps from time to time.

Would 40 targets be unreasonable for Reiman this season?

Throwing a bunch of resources at one position seems like a very Keim move. Reminds me of what he did at WR with AZ. Maybe it turns out differently, but it is just strange to me.

I don't love the tendency to call "making moves I don't like" Keim moves. I'm fine with throwing bodies at the position, but I wish people would be realistic that it's not great when your third round pick can't find his way ahead of the depth chart on Kei'Trel Clark.

He started the last 4 games with Antonia Hamilton heading towards FA and Clark in the dog house. Let's not pretend he earned CB2 and wasn't just being put out there on a losing team whose season was over to get them experience. Those final 3 games were also Owen Pappoe's only significant snaps too.

Nobody expected him to be anything this year except a roster bubble player, and now he isn't.

It's not a problem that a 2nd year UDFA is beating out a rookie late 3rd round pick. That's a positive.

This is such a BritCard way to say "I was wrong on a factual issue sorry about that."

It's not a problem if the pass defense is going to be good. Do you expect the pass defense to be good this year? If you just have a bunch of players who are bad, that is still bad, right?

I think he does 45% this year.

Reiman has all the athleticism that Higgins has but with 40 more pounds and the ability to block. I think it's underselling Reiman to think he's just going to be in to block on run plays.

Last year the Cards were first in 13 personnel (10.1%) and 15th in 12 personnel (19.6%), according to sumersports. We were also 14th in 11 personnel (64.5%).

The top team in 12 personnel were the Falcons at 41.8%. The next-highest were the Pats at 38.9%. I don't see us reaching that level.

 

[BACH]

If he's just going to be a blocking TE, it is a waste of draft resources. He has to show something in the passing game to justify the pick. Otherwise you're better off getting your 3rd tackle some live game reps from time to time.

Would 40 targets be unreasonable for Reiman this season?

Last year the Cards were first in 13 personnel (10.1%) and 15th in 12 personnel (19.6%), according to sumersports. We were also 14th in 11 personnel (64.5%).

The top team in 12 personnel were the Falcons at 41.8%. The next-highest were the Pats at 38.9%. I don't see us reaching that level.

But those numbers are also screwed. The system changed significantly with Ertz's decline & exit/McBride's emerging/Kyler's return.

I think 40-50 targets is what we should expect for realistic development

 

[HairZach]

Can’t keep 5 RBs, though I like all 5. Sadly Carter seems to be the one whose role can be more easily filled by others.

Carter's role is being good at making people miss and getting first downs. You can't find that anywhere. Meanwhile, half of the practice squads in the league have a RB as good as Demarcado. Why do we need two special teams only RBs?

If Demarcado special teams play really is indispensable, can't we just keep one fewer receiver? If we need a receiver past Jones, there is no real talent gap between the average practice squad WRs and Moore/Pascal. I doubt anyone would claim either if they were cut.

Considering the state of our roster I just can't get behind cutting a potential difference maker so we can hold onto a JAG. Just how bad is Carter at special teams?

 

[kerouac9]

The system changed significantly with Ertz's decline & exit/McBride's emerging/Kyler's return.

Do you have evidence of this? McBride got more snaps and looks, but he barely played before Ertz went out.

 

[slanidrac16]

Can’t keep 5 RBs, though I like all 5. Sadly Carter seems to be the one whose role can be more easily filled by others.

I don’t want Carter to leave.

 

[BACH]

Do you have evidence of this? McBride got more snaps and looks, but he barely played before Ertz went out.

That was my point. System changed after Ertz and Higgins and McBride understood the blocking. Just my observation. Tried to find personel breakdown by game - unsuccesfully

EDIT. COuldn't find personal breakdown per game, but did find snaps per TEs.

Average snaps by TEs first in 8 games - 91 snaps
(That number being increased by Ertz's high snap count in week 2-5)

Average snaps by TEs in last 8 games - 100 snaps

That is a 15% average increase of snaps for TEs.

 

[Chopper0080]

$500 bet on Reiman breaks 45% snaps next year if he continue his progress?

While I am not willing to make a $500 even-money bet that auto loses if McBride rolls his ankle or holds out, I will make an avatar bet for this season at a 40% offensive snap rate. You still probably win if McBride misses multiple games.

@BritCard You can get in on this as well if you want.

 

[cardncubfan]

I don't see the issue with a 3rd round pick getting a 3rd of the snaps his rookie year.

 

[Chopper0080]

If he's just going to be a blocking TE, it is a waste of draft resources. He has to show something in the passing game to justify the pick. Otherwise you're better off getting your 3rd tackle some live game reps from time to time.

Would 40 targets be unreasonable for Reiman this season?



I don't love the tendency to call "making moves I don't like" Keim moves. I'm fine with throwing bodies at the position, but I wish people would be realistic that it's not great when your third round pick can't find his way ahead of the depth chart on Kei'Trel Clark.



This is such a BritCard way to say "I was wrong on a factual issue sorry about that."

It's not a problem if the pass defense is going to be good. Do you expect the pass defense to be good this year? If you just have a bunch of players who are bad, that is still bad, right?



Last year the Cards were first in 13 personnel (10.1%) and 15th in 12 personnel (19.6%), according to sumersports. We were also 14th in 11 personnel (64.5%).

The top team in 12 personnel were the Falcons at 41.8%. The next-highest were the Pats at 38.9%. I don't see us reaching that level.

40 is a reasonable number. 6th in targets unless the Cardinals start throwing to RBs more is fitting for a #2 TE.

The bolded and italicized part is fair. It is just tossing a lot of assets at the position which I don't necessarily care for with most of the CB room being younger than him. So I will leave it at "I just don't like it".

 

[ASUCHRIS]

How many targets/catches does Tip have so far in the preseason? I see one catch on one target in the Indy game. If they're planning on 40+ targets for him this year, they've been hiding him well in the preseason. Seems like a good time to be testing out what he can do!

 

[MadCardDisease]

Can’t keep 5 RBs, though I like all 5. Sadly Carter seems to be the one whose role can be more easily filled by others.

I wonder if the Cardinals look to trade one of their RB to a team dealing with injuries at the position like Miami?

 

[Chopper0080]

I don't see the issue with a 3rd round pick getting a 3rd of the snaps his rookie year.

I guess I am not making my point well. My issue is with the role and not the player. Let's say the Cardinals want to keep Trey McBride, and will give him an extension. That locks up the TE1 role for the foreseeable future. Let's give the TE1 role in the Cardinals offense 80% of the offensive snaps.

If we assume 1200 offensive snaps (which is generally middle of the road) that means TE1 (80% role) = 960 snaps. You could then say that the TE2 would play the TE1 role in 15% of those remaining 20% snaps that would equal 180 snaps. In 2023, the Cardinals used multiple TE sets on 29.7% of their offensive snaps. Let's say they increase that number to 38% of their offensive snaps and let's give all of those snaps to TE2. That would equal 456 snaps. Combining those two scenarios you get 636 snaps or 53% of offensive snaps for the TE2 role as long as Trey is TE1 and playing 80% of offensive snaps.

Maybe it isn't as capped as I think it is, but I guess we will see.

Like I said, I don't mind the Tip pick, still don't like the Jones pick, and hopefully they are not capped in terms of upside for snaps.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I wonder if the Cardinals look to trade one of their RB to a team dealing with injuries at the position like Miami?

I guess if you're going to cut him, yes trade him for a pick, but I doubt you get more than a 5th rounder at this point.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Trey and Tip will be used in tandem. They have different roles at the TE position. The Cardinals run with a lot of 2 TE sets and that is where you will see more of Tip. Obviously Trey is TE1 and will get the majority of the snaps and will be the primary pass catching TE.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I guess if you're going to cut him, yes trade him for a pick, but I doubt you get more than a 5th rounder at this point.

I'll gladly take a 5th or 6th rounder for a player that you were able to pick up for free via waivers last season.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I'll gladly take a 5th or 6th rounder for a player that you were able to pick up for free via waivers last season.

Yeah, I'd be fine with it as well. It would also be somewhat problematic if Connor were to miss significant time, as you'd be completely reliant on a rookie/unproven talent to carry the load. I expect we'll run more than your average team, so a proven pro might be more valuable than a 5th or 6th at this point.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Throwing a bunch of resources at one position seems like a very Keim move. Reminds me of what he did at WR with AZ. Maybe it turns out differently, but it is just strange to me.

Eh, the players selected matters A LOT when you take this approach.

 

[kerouac9]

Yeah, I'd be fine with it as well. It would also be somewhat problematic if Connor were to miss significant time, as you'd be completely reliant on a rookie/unproven talent to carry the load. I expect we'll run more than your average team, so a proven pro might be more valuable than a 5th or 6th at this point.

To what end? RB is the easiest transition to make in the NFL; you probably want to find out if your third-round pick can’t play ASAP.

It’s not like we’re in between winning the division and a wild card spot right now; we’re striving for respectability.

 

[BACH]

I guess I am not making my point well. My issue is with the role and not the player. Let's say the Cardinals want to keep Trey McBride, and will give him an extension. That locks up the TE1 role for the foreseeable future. Let's give the TE1 role in the Cardinals offense 80% of the offensive snaps.

If we assume 1200 offensive snaps (which is generally middle of the road) that means TE1 (80% role) = 960 snaps. You could then say that the TE2 would play the TE1 role in 15% of those remaining 20% snaps that would equal 180 snaps. In 2023, the Cardinals used multiple TE sets on 29.7% of their offensive snaps. Let's say they increase that number to 38% of their offensive snaps and let's give all of those snaps to TE2. That would equal 456 snaps. Combining those two scenarios you get 636 snaps or 53% of offensive snaps for the TE2 role as long as Trey is TE1 and playing 80% of offensive snaps.

Maybe it isn't as capped as I think it is, but I guess we will see.

Like I said, I don't mind the Tip pick, still don't like the Jones pick, and hopefully they are not capped in terms of upside for snaps.

1. McBride only played 60.2% of snaps after him taking over as the clear #1 TE (Week 8 and forward). There will be way more snaps to share than you estimate. No one says Reiman cannot play the TE1 position just because he hasn't played a single snap there in the pre-season. IMO that is just Petzing securing that he's not a liability in his primary 12 role.

2. Depending on how Reiman develops, I think you are underestimating the upper limit of 12 personal. If you look above, I tried to break down the number of snaps of the TE group. Number of snaps by TEs increased 15% in the second half of the season.

3. Unrealistic comparison, but Pats had Gronk in 91% of snaps and Hernandez in 71% of snaps in the season where both played full season. NOT - Absolutely not saying that is going to happen, but just pointing out the bar is probably much higher that you indicate.

 

[Chopper0080]

Trey and Tip will be used in tandem. They have different roles at the TE position. The Cardinals run with a lot of 2 TE sets and that is where you will see more of Tip. Obviously Trey is TE1 and will get the majority of the snaps and will be the primary pass catching TE.

In 2023, the Cardinals used multiple TE sets on 29.7% of their offensive snaps. It was the 5th most used 12 and 13 combined packages in the NFL.

1 - Falcons - 49.6%
2 - Chiefs - 35.1%
3 - Packers - 33.2%
4 - Jaguars - 31.5%
5 - Cardinals - 29.7%

So while I do agree there is a possibility of an increase in multi TE usage, I don't believe the increase is a large one because we already use them at a high rate compared to the league.

 

[MadCardDisease]

In 2023, the Cardinals used multiple TE sets on 29.7% of their offensive snaps. It was the 5th most used 12 and 13 combined packages in the NFL.

1 - Falcons - 49.6%
2 - Chiefs - 35.1%
3 - Packers - 33.2%
4 - Jaguars - 31.5%
5 - Cardinals - 29.7%

So while I do agree there is a possibility of an increase in multi TE usage, I don't believe the increase is a large one because we already use them at a high rate compared to the league.

All I'm saying is that to run multiple TE sets you need Multiple TEs.