Protecting Murray

[Chris_Sanders]

So basically 5 QBs over the last decade rushed for at least 500 yards and those that did ended up missing games due to injury. However if Murray doesn't rush for 600 yards he is a Bust of a pick?

Murray will get his yards rushing but I would much rather see him spreading the ball around and letting his WRs/RBs rack up the yards. The less hits that he takes the better IMO. Holding him to some artificial rushing stat number seems pointless.

It's hard to say what the Cardinals will do but I am really willing to bet we see several RPO's a game. If he plays the majority of the season he should make that.

Important to remember for your fantasy football depending on your scoring.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I'll appreciate you not putting words in my mouth. Holding him to the same standard as Josh Allen as a rookie doesn't seem out of line.

So 52% passes completed and about 2000 yards passing 10 TDs and 12 INTs is acceptable in your book as long as Murray gets 600 yards rushing?

 

[slanidrac16]

I’m not worried about how many yards Murray gets. I’m more focused on the “inches” he gains for a first down and the yards he produces by extending plays.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

If Murray isn't going t rush for at least 600 yards, why did we bother drafting him? 40 yards per game isn't much, and if you're not rushing for more than that, you don't really establish the threat to run that keeps defenses honest.

TBH, most teams have a very fine running game with late-round and undrafted backs. THat's why it so dumb that David Johnson has the team's fourth-highest cap number in 2019.

While I believe Murray will likely rush for 500-600 yards this season, there have only been 14 times QBs have rushed for 660 or better in a single season dating back to at least 1972. And it’s only 8 different QBs who have done so. So while we should expect rushing stats from Murray I think it’s a little lame to state “40 yards per game isn’t much” when it’s literally only been done 14 times by 8 dudes in the last 47 years.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Yards
Season
Quarterback

1,039
2006
Michael Vick

968
1972
Bobby Douglass

942
1990
Randall Cunningham

902
2004
Michael Vick

849
2014
Russell Wilson

815
2012
Robert Griffin III

777
2002
Michael Vick

754
2017
Cam Newton

741
2012
Cam Newton

706
2011
Cam Newton

695
2018
Lamar Jackson

676
2010
Michael Vick

674
1997
Steve McNair

660
2011
Tim Tebow

 

[Krangodnzr]

I think the Cardinals are going to rush for around 2000 yards next year.

 

[kerouac9]

While I believe Murray will likely rush for 500-600 yards this season, there have only been 14 times QBs have rushed for 660 or better in a single season dating back to at least 1972. And it’s only 8 different QBs who have done so. So while we should expect rushing stats from Murray I think it’s a little lame to state “40 yards per game isn’t much” when it’s literally only been done 14 times by 8 dudes in the last 47 years.

Why is 660 the break point? Seems pretty arbitrary.

How many QBs have rushed for 500+ yards in the last 10 years, and how many times have they done it? I already put together a pretty comprehensive list on this thread.

I mean, are we not expecting our dual-threat #1 overall pick to be able to run as effectively as Josh Allen? I don't understand.

I think the Cardinals are going to rush for around 2000 yards next year.

That would put them in the Top 10 last year, and every team made the playoffs.

 

[cardncubfan]

Why is 660 the break point? Seems pretty arbitrary.

How many QBs have rushed for 500+ yards in the last 10 years, and how many times have they done it? I already put together a pretty comprehensive list on this thread.

I mean, are we not expecting our dual-threat #1 overall pick to be able to run as effectively as Josh Allen? I don't understand.



That would put them in the Top 10 last year, and every team made the playoffs.

Josh Allen is twice Murrays size & can take the hits better?

 

[Krangodnzr]

Josh Allen is twice Murrays size & can take the hits better?

That's assuming that Murray is going to get hit alot. Wilson doesnt when he runs.

 

[GoldGloveschmidt]

Murray is obviously a gifted runner but whats important is that he uses his running abilities to extend plays or pick up crucial 3rd downs and improve the offense rather than hitting specific stats.

Selfishly, since I own him in a 2qb dynasty league, I want him to rush for 1,000+.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Why is 660 the break point? Seems pretty arbitrary.

How many QBs have rushed for 500+ yards in the last 10 years, and how many times have they done it? I already put together a pretty comprehensive list on this thread.

I mean, are we not expecting our dual-threat #1 overall pick to be able to run as effectively as Josh Allen? I don't understand.



That would put them in the Top 10 last year, and every team made the playoffs.

You said 600. The only data I could find was 650. And isn’t any number arbitrary? As human beings we just stray towards order so we create breakpoints at hundreds. But can you assign any statistical significance to 500? Does that result in more wins? More yards per carry for RBs? If not any number you throw up as a threshold is arbitrary and meaningless in a vacuum.

 

[kerouac9]

You said 600. The only data I could find was 650. And isn’t any number arbitrary? As human beings we just stray towards order so we create breakpoints at hundreds. But can you assign any statistical significance to 500? Does that result in more wins? More yards per carry for RBs? If not any number you throw up as a threshold is arbitrary and meaningless in a vacuum.

I believe that Russ suggested 600 because it compared to some season for Russell Wilson — the quarterback most commonly compared to Murray. Obviously, if you raise the benchmark, you're going to have a smaller group of qualifiers. Why not 1000 yards?

Benchmarks are, by their nature, arbitrary. They're how you set a baseline for performance and then measure variables against the baseline. Lamar Jackson went 6-1 as a starter and rushed for almost 700 yards while making the playoffs. I'm not going to use him as a benchmark because I don't think that's a valid comparison.

It seems to me that if your QB is going to run for over 300 yards, they're likely to be part of that dual-threat QB group that, generally, reaches 600 yards. People challenged that assumption, asserting that 600 rushing yards is an impossible goal and outside reasonable expectations.

Obviously, it's been done many, many times before, by the exact class of quarterback that we're projecting Murray into. The other class would be to look at Marcus Mariota's rookie year, where he rushed for 252 yards on just 34 attempts — which is distorted by an 87-yard run.

 

[dscher]

I think you are overthinking this. The cardinals simply stuck to their board rankings and took the best player on their board. It just so happens that the best player on their board on their 2nd and 4th picks were defensive players. They used free agency to address the line and assuming the line stays healthy(ish) this year than they should be significantly improved over last season.

This is definitely something that is highly annoying by all the talking heads.. just blowing up our offensive line that was filled with scrubs for the majority of the season because of injury. Don't get me wrong, you get what you pay for.. and Keim loves him some o lineman with history of injury..but, last year was beyond that and was just a series of unfortunate bad luck along with horrible coaching of course..not a good combo.

 

[AZCrazy]

600 yards is only 37 per game. I think it's not only possible but likely that he gets this much, at least in his first year while he is still learning the under-center situation. His tendency will be to bust and run if things break down, in the beginning.

 

[football karma]

If Murray isn't going t rush for at least 600 yards, why did we bother drafting him?

as long as he follows the Russel Wilson rules, I am all for it --

to his credit -- Russel is as good as I have seen about taking yards when they are there, and getting OB or down when they arent

 

[Chopper0080]

So basically 5 QBs over the last decade rushed for at least 500 yards and those that did ended up missing games due to injury. However if Murray doesn't rush for 600 yards he is a Bust of a pick?

Murray will get his yards rushing but I would much rather see him spreading the ball around and letting his WRs/RBs rack up the yards. The less hits that he takes the better IMO. Holding him to some artificial rushing stat number seems pointless.

Legitimately, what is the point of a dual threat QB if he doesn't use one of his tools?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I believe that Russ suggested 600 because it compared to some season for Russell Wilson — the quarterback most commonly compared to Murray. Obviously, if you raise the benchmark, you're going to have a smaller group of qualifiers. Why not 1000 yards?

Russ May thrown out 600 yards, but you created a benchmark by stating:

“If Murray isn't going t rush for at least 600 yards, why did we bother drafting him? 40 yards per game isn't much, and if you're not rushing for more than that, you don't really establish the threat to run that keeps defenses honest”

So the “why bother” and “isn’t much” benchmark you set is 600.

Again I only worked with 650 because that’s the data I could find. It’s a difference of 3.1 yards per game I don’t know if that’s materially significant, but I’m inclined to think likely not.

Benchmarks are, by their nature, arbitrary. They're how you set a baseline for performance and then measure variables against the baseline. Lamar Jackson went 6-1 as a starter and rushed for almost 700 yards while making the playoffs. I'm not going to use him as a benchmark because I don't think that's a valid comparison.

Hmm, I disagree. Benchmarks, by their nature, are not typically arbitrary. At least not good benchmarks. The level of significance may vary, but benchmarks are typically set for reason. For instance, investment indices are set to determine what market rate of return you should expect without having to pay extra for active management. Within a 401(k) benchmarks may be set to determine how much nonhighly compensated employees have to defer in order to ensure highly compensateds can max out. Those aren’t arbitrary.

Your benchmark was arbitrary if we are trying to use it to determine success. But you weren’t. You were just trying to use it to state that would be easy for Murray. So essentially you were trying to set a floor expectation.

It seems to me that if your QB is going to run for over 300 yards, they're likely to be part of that dual-threat QB group that, generally, reaches 600 yards. People challenged that assumption, asserting that 600 rushing yards is an impossible goal and outside reasonable expectations.

Obviously, it's been done many, many times before, by the exact class of quarterback that we're projecting Murray into. The other class would be to look at Marcus Mariota's rookie year, where he rushed for 252 yards on just 34 attempts — which is distorted by an 87-yard run.

Very Trumpian of you. Since 1972 I showed that exactly 14 times a QB has rushed for 650+ yards in a season. Assuming an average of 30 teams per year, that means at the beginning of all of those season aggregated there were 1,410 opportunities for a QB starting the season to rush for 650 yards. It was accomplished 14 times. That’s less than 1%. Perhaps you and I just define “many, many times before” very, very differently.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Legitimately, what is the point of a dual threat QB if he doesn't use one of his tools?

The truth is this whole argument is probably stupid because he is going to run and I suspect he will put up substantial yards doing so.

But if doesn’t and he uses it selectively. And in so doing creates enough fear in defensive coordinators and defenses to open the pass game and he hits big passing, who cares what the rushing numbers are?

 

[kerouac9]

What's the link to your source, Ouchie? This is ridiculous.

If 12 of those 14 scenarios happened in the last 10 years, then it doesn't really matter that your data set begins in 1972; the last 10 years are obviously more relevant.

I didn't believe that comparisons between Josh Rosen and Peyton Manning or Troy Aikman were that relevant, either, because obviously the NFL has evolved quite a bit in the last 20-30 years. Your expectations have to shift.

Does it make sense to compare expectations for Murray's rushing to Drew Bledsoe's? Of course not.

 

[Krangodnzr]

That would put them in the Top 10 last year, and every team made the playoffs.

I think the Cardinals will be an outlier.

I for see a year where the Cardinals go 6-10. They'll have a few blowout losses, win a few games that we don't expect. Offense will be streaky, but give us just a bit of hope of success. The rushing numbers are going to be bigger because DJ will rush for around 1000-1100, Murray 700, and between the rest, another 300ish.

The defense will look good by some metrics, bad by others because of the streaky offense.

 

[kerouac9]

I think the Cardinals will be an outlier.

I for see a year where the Cardinals go 6-10. They'll have a few blowout losses, win a few games that we don't expect. Offense will be streaky, but give us just a bit of hope of success. The rushing numbers are going to be bigger because DJ will rush for around 1000-1100, Murray 700, and between the rest, another 300ish.

The defense will look good by some metrics, bad by others because of the streaky offense.

That's sort of the thing, right? FO always says this: "You don't win when you run, you run when you win." There's a causal relationship between those teams and the rushing totals: It's that they're running out the clock on a lot of these games and pounding the ball to shorten the game.

It sounds like you're projecting Murray's rookie year to be very similar to Cam Newton's rookie season, where he passed for 4000 yards and rushed for another 700 and the Panthers went 6-10. Carolina rushed for a combined 2400 yards that season(!!).

The difference is that Carolina's defense was very bad. Jon Beason missed 15 games with an Achilles injury, and Thomas Davis missed 13 games with a knee injury. The ended up 27th in scoring defense, 28th in yardage, and 32nd in DVOA.

It's (almost) impossible to have a good offense and an average defense and miss the playoffs.

 

[oaken1]

be nice if murry stays alive this year....I only wanna see him run when he has too...and then I expect him to slide if anyone gets within three yards of him.
if he gets broken as a rook there is a good chance he is done...we need him to learn the nfl game before he gets broken

 

[Krangodnzr]

That's sort of the thing, right? FO always says this: "You don't win when you run, you run when you win." There's a causal relationship between those teams and the rushing totals: It's that they're running out the clock on a lot of these games and pounding the ball to shorten the game.

It sounds like you're projecting Murray's rookie year to be very similar to Cam Newton's rookie season, where he passed for 4000 yards and rushed for another 700 and the Panthers went 6-10. Carolina rushed for a combined 2400 yards that season(!!).

The difference is that Carolina's defense was very bad. Jon Beason missed 15 games with an Achilles injury, and Thomas Davis missed 13 games with a knee injury. The ended up 27th in scoring defense, 28th in yardage, and 32nd in DVOA.

It's (almost) impossible to have a good offense and an average defense and miss the playoffs.

That's what I think we'll see. Even if you don't like Murray much, he is a much more advanced passer than Newton was coming out.

I just don't see a 3-13 year. I don't. Moving back to a 3-4 and all the additions almost guarantee the defense is going to be better. I think health on the offensive line will make them better, the Cardinals had a ridiculous number of injuries. I think the offensive line won't be a bottom 3 unit.

 

[Krangodnzr]

be nice if murry stays alive this year....I only wanna see him run when he has too...and then I expect him to slide if anyone gets within three yards of him.
if he gets broken as a rook there is a good chance he is done...we need him to learn the nfl game before he gets broken

The changes to the way defenses play are ushering in an era where Kyler Murray is a viable NFL QB. Defenders just don't hit offensive players like they used to.

And one of the problems that dual threat QBs have had in the past, is that many tend to get hurt often. Murray has the same mentality of Wilson, avoid the big hit and get down. His running ability is going to be a tremendous weapon for the Cardinals.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

What's the link to your source, Ouchie? This is ridiculous.

If 12 of those 14 scenarios happened in the last 10 years, then it doesn't really matter that your data set begins in 1972; the last 10 years are obviously more relevant.

I didn't believe that comparisons between Josh Rosen and Peyton Manning or Troy Aikman were that relevant, either, because obviously the NFL has evolved quite a bit in the last 20-30 years. Your expectations have to shift.

Does it make sense to compare expectations for Murray's rushing to Drew Bledsoe's? Of course not.

I found it yesterday (or day before). I didn’t save the link, but I provided the data. Not looking it up again, but seems easy enough to confirm if you’re questioning its validity.

And I’m fine with limiting the time period viewed. The only reason I went back to 72 is because that’s what the data showed. But I think your “last ten years” is likely too limited a data set. I mean, Randall Cunningham ran for 900 yards in ‘90. And the guy he’s most compared to, Vick, played in the early 2000’s.

But even if you want to limit it to last 10 years it’s still only 8 occurrences. Out of 320 possible opportunities. That’s 2.5% of the time. When talking about prevalence I would hardly call that “many, many times.” How do you propose to move the field goals next? I’m game.