ROUND 2: Suns v. Spurs Series Prediction Thread!

[Cheesebeef]

cheesebeef is bipolar

wow - that actually TOTALLY nails me! I'm all over the place! good call e!

 

[cly2tw]

Suns in 5!

In the last 3 games, we lost the first in OT while in the early season slump, won the 2nd convincingly and lost the 3rd because they over-defended 3-pt line and managed to cut off Nash from the links to teammates without DA being able to adjust in game. I think our coaches are smart enough to not do the same mistake again. And more importantly, Amare's playing so focused on both ends of the game lately. And Diaw has been on the rise too. So, I expect we win in 5, at most 6.

Go Suns!

 

[bko32]

Spurs in 6

The Suns are 4-15 against the Spurs over the past 3 years including the playoffs. Heck, this might even be over in 5 games.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Suns in 6.

 

[TheHopToad]

I'm all over the place on this one. I have flip-flopped more times than John Kerry. One minute I think we're a lot better and that "this year is different", and then I'll think some more and come to the conclusion that it's the Spurs and they are a methodical machine, and have our number.

I've been anywhere from Suns in five to a Spurs sweep and everywhere in between. However, given that even though we lost the regular season to them 2-1, the circumstances give hope and I've seen the Suns play at the level of their competition all year. To me, it comes down to dictating the pace and having energy. I think everyone on the Suns knows that to win, they have to run run run, and they will make that a priority.

In the end, I believe the Suns are younger and more conditioned than than the Spurs, and thus able to survive the intense physicality that this series will bring. IMO it gives them an ever so slight advantage. Having home court advantage will mean more for this series to us than in any other series this year. I believe it will be the difference.

Suns in 7.

 

[scoutmasterdave]

I'll go with the Suns in 7. I just don't think Nash will let this team lose.

 

[az1965]

Suns in 6.


This should have a poll.

 

[Michael]

Two years ago I was critiziesed on this board for my "Thank you Phoenix Suns"-Thread when we were down 0-3 against the Spurs.

I hope we won't be in that situation again.

Predicting the Suns is always hard and always biased.

If I had to bet my money, I would be with "the pessimist" Eric: Spurs in 6. The pessimist in me would even say: Spurs in 5. The realist says: Spurs in 6.

And my own orange mind keeps telling me, that the Suns will finally win the title this year. (I might add, that I keep telling that everyone prior to every season.)

Suns in 7

 

[playstation]

shamelessy stolen from some dude the insidehoops message board (he's got good insight):

I got the Suns in 5 or 6. While some people might consider that cocky, let me explain why I came to that conclusion.

1. Suns can now play great in a slow it down game.

In games where Phoenix has scored less than 100 points they are 8-6 or .571%
In games where San Antonio has scored less than 100 points they are 25-20 or .556%

The notion that the Suns can only win in a high scoring game is false. Things have changed in the past two seasons.

2. Bell plays great defense on Manu as shown this year.

Game 1: Manu- 12 points 5 assists on 3/13 shooting. Manu played 33 min.

Game 2: Manu- 32 points 2 assists on 12/22 shooting. Manu played 35 min.
While those are great stats from Manu there is a reason why he got them. Raja only played 12 minutes in that game due to injury.

Game 3: Manu- 7 points 3 assists on 3/11 shooting. Manu played 24 min.

Manu himself has said Bell is the one player that plays great defense on him.

3. Bruce Bowen is worthless against the Suns.

Game 1: 2 points on 1/5 shooting. Bowen played 25 min.

Game 2: 0 points on 0/5 shooting. Bowen played 27 min.

Game 3: 1 point on 0/4 shooting. Bowen played 38 min.

While Bowen is in there for defense, if he cant hit open shots, he will hurt the Spurs especially in crunch time.

4. The Spurs don't hold the rebounding edge as much as they used too.

Game 1: PHX=49 rebounds SAS=51 rebounds

Game 2: PHX=51 rebounds SAS=41 rebounds

Game 3: PHX=43 rebounds SAS=50 rebounds

5. The Suns match up a lot better with the Spurs than they did two years ago.

They subtracted Hunter/QRich/JJ for Thomas/Jones/Bell...and actually JJ didnt really play much in the 05 series.

So they might have lost some offense but they gained a great post defender, a underrated defender and a 1st team All-NBA defender.

6. No Nazr Mohammad for the Spurs.

They got rid of Nazr, who was a good post defender at the time and now have Elson and Oberto who don't compare to Nazr defensively. This might hurt the Spurs down low especially if Boris Diaw decides to play.

7. In 2005, Horry played a huge role in the Spurs "small ball" lineup.

That wont be happening this series with Horry getting a little bit older. In 2005, the Horry averaged 31 minutes a game against the Suns and I don't think the Spurs have the luxury of playing him that much this year. I think that will hurt the Spurs if they decide to run with the Suns like they did in 05.

8. The Suns are now a 4th quarter team.

In 2005 the Suns could not hold a lead or perform in the 4th quarter if there life depended on it. As games have shown this year, that fact has changed which is very important come playoff time.

Game 1 this year: The Spurs did outscore the Suns 31-16 in the 4th quarter but I blame that on Amares early struggles and him fouling out with 4:16 to go and the Suns up 93-85. Amare has been playing a lot smarter as of late and I do not see him fouling out this series.

Game 2 this year: The Suns outscored the Spurs 31-17 in the 4th quarter to increase a 2 point lead at the end of the 3rd to a 16 point win.

Game 3 this year: The Suns outscored the Spurs 26-21 in the 4th quarter. They played lockdown defense that cut the Spurs 3rd quarter lead of 12 down to a 5 point loss. While the Suns lost this game they showed they can step it up when it really mattered.

Now I would like to hear some counter arguments or some big props.

 

[dastrey]

1. Suns can now play great in a slow it down game.

If this series turns into a slow paced gamed the Spurs will take it in 4.

2. Bell plays great defense on Manu as shown this year.

In the Spurs 2 wins against Phoenix this year, Manu shot a combined 6/24. The key is stopping Parker.

3. Bruce Bowen is worthless against the Suns.

We will see how worthless he is when he is guarding Nash and making him work for everything.

4. The Spurs don't hold the rebounding edge as much as they used too.

Rebounding will have little impact on this series. The Spurs concede offensive rebounds to get back in transition defense.

5. The Suns match up a lot better with the Spurs than they did two years ago. So they might have lost some offense but they gained a great post defender, a underrated defender and a 1st team All-NBA defender.

The only way for the Suns to beat the Spurs is through offense. Having Kurt Thomas on the floor takes away a 3 point shooter for the Suns, which will make them easier to defend.

6. No Nazr Mohammad for the Spurs.

The same Nazr who let Amare dominate the Spurs? Look for Elson to atleast stay in front of Stoudemire, with a healthier Duncan bringing help defense.

7. In 2005, Horry played a huge role in the Spurs "small ball" lineup.

Horry is built for the playoffs. Look for him to match Kurt Thomas's minutes.

8. The Suns are now a 4th quarter team.

This has yet to be tested in the playoffs. And no, the Lakers don't count as a legitimate playoff team.

 

[PetryJr]

If this series turns into a slow paced gamed the Spurs will take it in 4.

The Spurs would be favored to win the series, but I seriously doubt they would win it in 4.

In the Spurs 2 wins against Phoenix this year, Manu shot a combined 6/24. The key is stopping Parker.

The key is doing a solid job on both. Both players are very good slashers and it would be very tough to STOP them.

We will see how worthless he is when he is guarding Nash and making him work for everything.

Agreed.

Rebounding will have little impact on this series. The Spurs concede offensive rebounds to get back in transition defense.

The Suns' overall defense is pretty decent and has held the Spurs to low percentages from the field this season (.420 in the first game, .390 in the second and .418 in the third). The only thing that keeps them from being an above-average defensive team is their defensive rebounding. If the Spurs don't crash the boards on offense, they might be able to keep the Suns from scoring on the break, but they also won't be able to score as easily.

The only way for the Suns to beat the Spurs is through offense. Having Kurt Thomas on the floor takes away a 3 point shooter for the Suns, which will make them easier to defend.

They might be easier to defend, but they'll be a lot harder to attack. The only way for the Suns to beat the Spurs is through a combination of smart defense and smart offense.

The same Nazr who let Amare dominate the Spurs? Look for Elson to atleast stay in front of Stoudemire, with a healthier Duncan bringing help defense.

The same Nazr who, alongside Duncan, dominated the offensive boards, averaging 3.6 offensive rebounds per game. Also, Amaré was guarded by Duncan for a good part of that series, so it's not like Nazr defense was the only reason for his scoring production.

Horry is built for the playoffs. Look for him to match Kurt Thomas's minutes.

Agreed.

This has yet to be tested in the playoffs. And no, the Lakers don't count as a legitimate playoff team.

Agreed. But the Suns have definitely made strides in that respect, compared to the previous two seasons.

 

[slinslin]

Suns in 5.

 

[nzcloud]

Suns in 6.
Solid points quoted by playstation.

The longer the series, the better Suns will perform. If Suns can manage a 2-2 for the first 4 games, they can close Spurs out in game 5 & 6.

A homer point of view, of course.

 

[dodie53]

nash will eventually win his 3rd mvp..

the 3rd one will be a finals mvp..
=)

 

[Ollie]

Suns in 6. :blindhomerism:

 

[cardsunsfan]

Suns in 7, and I don't think that is homeristic (new word) I think Spurs weren't ready to play the first game against Denver, but usually when the Spurs are at their best and putting their whole will into a game they are almost impossible to beat at home. I think they coasted much of this season. Duncan was hurt a lot of last season. The seasons before, they were almost impossible to beat in their home court. They almost went the whole season without losing a home game a couple years back!

I think our best chance is if we win all of our home games. Do I feel a game 7at home is cutting it really close? Maybe. But I think the odds will definitely be in our favor if we go to a game 7. Our crowd will be behind us, the energy will be great, and I think our players will will us to win.

 

[BirdMan21]

Here is what vegas thinks:

San Antonio Spurs win in 4 games - 20/1
San Antonio Spurs win in 5 games - 8/1
San Antonio Spurs win in 6 games - 7/2
San Antonio Spurs win in 7 games - 9/2
Phoenix Suns win in 4 games - 12/1
Phoenix Suns win in 5 games - 4/1
Phoenix Suns win in 6 games - 9/2
Phoenix Suns win in 7 games - 3/1

So right now they feel it will be the Suns in 7, with the Spurs in 6 the second most likely possibility. They have also moved the Suns to being the favorite to win the title (odds anywhere between 9/5 - 5/2). I am going to stand by my Suns in 7.

 

[az1965]

OMG! Kerr predicts Suns in 7!!!

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/playoffs/saspho;_ylt=AldUffCkXBLj8dQndD998eq8vLYF

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Ask and you shall receive...

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=36357

Probably belongs among ASFN's Greatest Hits. Cheesebeef strangely overdoses on Kool-Aid while ultra-McClown apologist Rats debates Shaun King superfan This_Guy in a no holds barred 'Who's the Worse QB' pissing contest.

As someone who has been on this board for two years now and never seen that side of cheese in that two years......that is the funniest thread of all time. It just goes to show you that no matter how much you want to buy into the bias - sometimes reality is just a bitter pill to swallow.

But these Suns aren't McCown, cheese. This is Steve freaking Nash and Amare Stoudamire. I think we have the better players in this series (Nash has to out play Parker bar none to prove he is the legend everyone pronounced him to be after this last season), I think we play just as well as a team offensively as they do defensively, I think we have equal footing in coaching and we have the home court advantage.

The difference two years ago was that their strength (defense) and our strength (offense) were equal. The difference was they were much better offensively than we were defensively. The just mauled us on the baords too which along with no go to post scorer was our biggest problem these last two years. I think a juiced up rebounding Amare and Kurt Thomas can do enough work on the boards where second chance points are close. And if thats the case we win the series.

Suns in 6. The team shows the cold blooded instinct we have been looking for and goes on the road and deals a last second knock out blow ala the Lakers in 04' with Fisher. Right now I don't see if that is Nash, Barbosa, or STAT but someone is going to come through and we are going to be proved right in our belief that this team is All-Time.

Yes I am nervous. Yes I could for see a scenario where the Spurs win in 5. But I think Nash is a top 3 PG all time and he will prove it this next couple weeks by willing this team to victory. With a little help from Amare and Barbosa

 

[Arizona's Finest]

in all honesty I am more worried about the WCF against Utah

 

[elindholm]

Here is what vegas thinks:

San Antonio Spurs win in 4 games - 20/1 4.8% (3.8%)
San Antonio Spurs win in 5 games - 8/1 11.1% (8.7%)
San Antonio Spurs win in 6 games - 7/2 22.2% (17.5%)
San Antonio Spurs win in 7 games - 9/2 18.2% (14.3%)
Phoenix Suns win in 4 games - 12/1 7.7% (6.1%)
Phoenix Suns win in 5 games - 4/1 20.0% (15.7%)
Phoenix Suns win in 6 games - 9/2 18.2% (14.3%)
Phoenix Suns win in 7 games - 3/1 25.0% (20.0%)

I put in the break-even probabilities (for betting) because they're easier to add than odds. Of course they add up to much more than 100% to provide a house edge, so I also put in the "normalized" probabilities in parentheses. If you sum the probabilities for each team, this set of odds is figuring on a 56-44 edge for the Suns in the series as a whole.

What's surprising to me is that this set of odds anticipates only a 58-42 edge for the Suns if the series goes seven games. Given that, historically, the home team almost always wins Game 7 (well over 80%, as I recall), they must think they know something special here.

 

[sunsfn]

Suns in 6.

Amare is a much better player than he was two years ago. He is better at almost everything except at jumping as high as he did, and he does show flashes of that occasionally. I really think Amare will rise to the occasion in this series and have great stats.

Nash will be Nash..........MVP and the will to not let his team lose.

Marion will have his best series against the Spurs even though some of you are looking at him disappearing.

Barbosa is much improved and the Spurs will have their hands full trying to corral him.

Bell, Diaw, KT, & James Jones will need to step up, but they all played well against the Lakers and I think they will.

 

[F-Dog]

Come on, Chaplin, you're one of the biggest homers on the board. That's not an insult; it just speaks to your loyalty as a fan. By now we all know each other. I'm considered a pessimist, cheesebeef is bipolar, F-Dog monitors the betting world, and jbeecham is the designated guy to complain about the officiating.

I liked it better when I was the guy who followed the rest of the league.

I guess I just think the lines are interesting and somewhat informative, and I don't have much high-quality work of my own to pass on...


Anyway, I'll take Suns in 5. I remember how the lid came off the basket for the Suns when they got extra rest before game 7 of the Clippers series, and how San Antonio was so desperate to win and instill fear in the last game, where the Suns still pulled to within 3 at the end...one of the Suns' biggest problems in games 3 and 5 of the Lakers series was effort, and I don't think they'll have that problem against the Spurs.

I think the Suns can hold serve at home and also pick up one game in San Antonio, so they should pull this out in 5 or 6. The games themselves will be much closer and better-played than in the Lakers series, obviously.

What's surprising to me is that this set of odds anticipates only a 58-42 edge for the Suns if the series goes seven games. Given that, historically, the home team almost always wins Game 7 (well over 80%, as I recall), they must think they know something special here.

It wouldn't surprise me if the books usually give the same edge to the away team. IMO 'Road team in 7' seems more tempting instinctively than the stats bear out.

 

[gonashcanada]

i think the suns willl win it in 7 games
Stoudiire will be the big factor if teh suns win or lose

 

[Chaplin]

Come on, Chaplin, you're one of the biggest homers on the board. That's not an insult; it just speaks to your loyalty as a fan. By now we all know each other. I'm considered a pessimist, cheesebeef is bipolar, F-Dog monitors the betting world, and jbeecham is the designated guy to complain about the officiating.

But in any case, my comment wasn't about only you. Very few people, even on this board, are predicting the Suns in less than 7, and those that are say things like "Well I know this is silly, but what the heck." The consensus of the board, if you factor everyone in, is that winning in 7 is the best the Suns can hope for. That's a very thin edge to hang our hopes on.

Maybe it's just the way that you say it. I do have confidence in the Suns, while you obviously do not. Nothing wrong with that.

But by your post, it is definitely seems that yes, you are negative, but you take that negativity and present it as fact--something which I know a little bit about, since I'm accused of that practically every other month. Fortunately for you, you are so well-spoken and intelligent that your little jabs go unnoticed most of the time. Unlike the rest of us.

Regarding the substance of your post, I'm afraid your logic is just as maddening. "Even the homers think it will take 7 games to beat the Spurs" is a quote from your post--and you use it to support your opinion that the Spurs will win in 6, like the "homers" opinion backs up yours that the Spurs will win.

The Spurs are a great team. But so are we. I'm not selling them short--I thought that made me a "fan", not a "homer".

But either way, it's going to be a tough series. A lot of people on here (not necessarily you) are SO negative that they think that the Spurs won't have any trouble against us. And that is even MORE infuriating coming from a Phoenix Suns message board. I'm certainly not saying to throw realism out the window, but it's just as realistic to say Suns in 6 or 7 as it is to say Spurs in 6 or 7. If you disagree, well, I just don't see the evidence to back up such a claim.