Round One Conundrums

[Crimson Warrior]

Scary thought - what if Texans beat Browns today?

The Texans pick that we got will be worse than the Cleveland/Texans pick.

Wow!

What if the Texans win the Superbowl? How would everyone feel about that?

"With the 32nd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals select..."

 

[TheCardFan]

What if the Texans win the Superbowl? How would everyone feel about that?

"With the 32nd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals select..."

Depends on who we pick.

And that's one way to pick last. Sad part is its more probable than us winning the Super Bowl at this point.

 

[CardNots]

What if the Texans win the Superbowl? How would everyone feel about that?

"With the 32nd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals select..."

Two picks close together. At that point in the draft I’d be excited.

 

[Stout]

LOL.

I think you are the one who needs to keep up.

You're not finding Sewell on day three, but St. Brown is a fantastic receiver who just made an All Pro team. He was drafted in the same draft as Chase.

This is why you take OTs high, because you ain't finding an All Pro LT in later rounds, but routinely, WRs are found later.

Sure bro.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Sure bro.

Facts hurt sometimes.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

LOL.

I think you are the one who needs to keep up.

You're not finding Sewell on day three, but St. Brown is a fantastic receiver who just made an All Pro team. He was drafted in the same draft as Chase.

This is why you take OTs high, because you ain't finding an All Pro LT in later rounds, but routinely, WRs are found later.

You seem to be forgetting the Cardinals drafted their LTOF last year. Using back to back years on OT's with top 10 picks is just not done because it's a stupid waste of draft capital.

I also hate the frivolous argument that points out the exceptions that pan out in later rounds versus the norm. For every St.Brown or Tyreke Hill there are hundreds of failed picks at WR. Maybe teams should not take QB's at the top of draft because Brock Purdy has outplayed Bryce Young.

 

[TheCardFan]

I also hate the frivolous argument that points out the exceptions that pan out in later rounds versus the norm. For every St.Brown or Tyreke Hill there are hundreds of failed picks at WR.

There are failed picks at every position and even WR's in round 1 or top 5 draft picks.

I think we all agree - take the best player.

 

[Stout]

Facts hurt sometimes.

No, I'm just laughing that you can be a dick to me and preach about how it's "okay" when I'm "wrong" in your eys but you can take a hypothetical off the rails and can't handle being called on it. Hypocrisy is hilarious. Bro.

 

[Stout]

You seem to be forgetting the Cardinals drafted their LTOF last year. Using back to back years on OT's with top 10 picks is just not done because it's a stupid waste of draft capital.

I also hate the frivolous argument that points out the exceptions that pan out in later rounds versus the norm. For every St.Brown or Tyreke Hill there are hundreds of failed picks at WR. Maybe teams should not take QB's at the top of draft because Brock Purdy has outplayed Bryce Young.

Ignore him. He's trying to move the goal posts and pretend Cinci was dumb for drafting Chase lol

 

[Stout]

There are failed picks at every position and even WR's in round 1 or top 5 draft picks.

I think we all agree - take the best player.

No way, ask Krango! It was totally stupid for Cinci to take Chase! They made a huge mistake and would totally have made the Super Bowl if they had drafted Sewell! lol

 

[Krangodnzr]

I'd rather have St. Brown and Sewell than Chase and trash at OT.

lol Do better.

We're talking top picks, not later round players that a team found. Nothing saying Cinci drafts St. Brown Later. Also, Cinci could have taken a decent OT with a later pick but didn't.

Keep up, please.

LOL.

I think you are the one who needs to keep up.

You're not finding Sewell on day three, but St. Brown is a fantastic receiver who just made an All Pro team. He was drafted in the same draft as Chase.

This is why you take OTs high, because you ain't finding an All Pro LT in later rounds, but routinely, WRs are found later.

Sure bro.

Facts hurt sometimes.

No, I'm just laughing that you can be a dick to me and preach about how it's "okay" when I'm "wrong" in your eys but you can take a hypothetical off the rails and can't handle being called on it. Hypocrisy is hilarious. Bro.

Read this whole exchange. I made a one sentence answer alluding to the concept that taking a OT is sometimes the smarter path and you were instantly a jerk about it, saying "lol so better" and then "keep up". So I responded in kind and then you try and pin this on me when you were the dick first.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You seem to be forgetting the Cardinals drafted their LTOF last year. Using back to back years on OT's with top 10 picks is just not done because it's a stupid waste of draft capital.

I also hate the frivolous argument that points out the exceptions that pan out in later rounds versus the norm. For every St.Brown or Tyreke Hill there are hundreds of failed picks at WR. Maybe teams should not take QB's at the top of draft because Brock Purdy has outplayed Bryce Young.

I don’t agree with your first paragraph. There are three avenues for adding value to a team. Draft, free agency and trade. Adding talent at important positions is the goal. Doesn’t matter which route you take to do so.

I DO strongly support your second paragraph. There are tackle equivalents to Amon-ra st brown replete throughout history. And as we’ve seen with the multitudes of busts, there’s little guarantee of hitting on another st brown. You’re much more likely to come up with a Isabella or Hakeem butler.

 

[daves]

A good FA RT would change everything!

This presents another conundrum: should Ossenfort spend on a top FA RT, not knowing whether MHJ will be available in the draft? If the Cards get a high priced FA RT, then MHJ is gone at #4, drafting one of the top OTs seems like a highly inefficient use of assets.

But if Ossenfort passes on picking up a good FA RT and then has the opportunity to draft MHJ, the team is left without any RT aside from Beachum and the FA leftovers after the draft.

 

[oaken1]

This presents another conundrum: should Ossenfort spend on a top FA RT, not knowing whether MHJ will be available in the draft? If the Cards get a high priced FA RT, then MHJ is gone at #4, drafting one of the top OTs seems like a highly inefficient use of assets.

But if Ossenfort passes on picking up a good FA RT and then has the opportunity to draft MHJ, the team is left without any RT aside from Beachum and the FA leftovers after the draft.

It depends on if the team feels that PJ can fill the LT role... Alt and Fashanu are considered LT prospects... But there are 5 or 6 guys we can get at the end of the first or with pick 35 who can start day 1 at RT. So we can draft Harrison and still get a RT

 

[QuebecCard]

Facts hurt sometimes.

When Stout uses the laughing emoji, you know he's on the run... again.

 

[QuebecCard]

This presents another conundrum: should Ossenfort spend on a top FA RT, not knowing whether MHJ will be available in the draft? If the Cards get a high priced FA RT, then MHJ is gone at #4, drafting one of the top OTs seems like a highly inefficient use of assets.

But if Ossenfort passes on picking up a good FA RT and then has the opportunity to draft MHJ, the team is left without any RT aside from Beachum and the FA leftovers after the draft.

There are Tackles with late first-round - second-round grades.

Latham, Mims, Guyton, Fuaga, Morgan

 

[Krangodnzr]

I don’t agree with your first paragraph. There are three avenues for adding value to a team. Draft, free agency and trade. Adding talent at important positions is the goal. Doesn’t matter which route you take to do so.

I DO strongly support your second paragraph. There are tackle equivalents to Amon-ra st brown replete throughout history. And as we’ve seen with the multitudes of busts, there’s little guarantee of hitting on another st brown. You’re much more likely to come up with a Isabella or Hakeem butler.

The overall point is that you are much more likely to find a good receiver after round one than a tackle. The past few decades are filled with good receivers drafted after round one, but there are a lot less good tackles drafted after round one. After about round three the number of good tackles is really small because its really hard to find big guys who have the athletic ability later. And if they do, they are usually really raw.

Sewell went in the same draft as Chase and so did St. Brown. While the Lions got "lucky" they also followed sound team building strategies by building a really strong offensive line first and foremost which makes the rest of the players more effective.

 

[Cardiac]

After all the debating I trust these coaches to coach up players and scheme well. A solid LG in FA and draft a RT in rd2 or 3.
IIRC it was madcardiese that posted what rounds oline were taken for playoff teams. We shouldn't spend draft capital on two top ten picks on oline men.
Only reason I would be okay with that is if MHJ is gone and we can't find a trade partner.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The overall point is that you are much more likely to find a good receiver after round one than a tackle. The past few decades are filled with good receivers drafted after round one, but there are a lot less good tackles drafted after round one. After about round three the number of good tackles is really small because its really hard to find big guys who have the athletic ability later. And if they do, they are usually really raw.

Sewell went in the same draft as Chase and so did St. Brown. While the Lions got "lucky" they also followed sound team building strategies by building a really strong offensive line first and foremost which makes the rest of the players more effective.

Do you have numbers to back up this contention or are you guessing? Absent any cited numbers this feels like a guess.

 

[slanidrac16]

When you can land a 20ct diamond ring you don’t pass that up to possibly find a gem in the 3rd round.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Do you have numbers to back up this contention or are you guessing? Absent any cited numbers this feels like a guess.

This has been cited numerous times over the years on actual analysis of drafts.

Which Positions Are the Safest, Riskiest at the Top of the NFL Draft?

Are you better off drafting one position over another? Based strictly on precedents and trends, we set out to discover which positions have traditionally produced the most ...

syndication.bleacherreport.com

OT has amongst the lowest bust rates of any position. While you always want to find a star, it's still better to find a decent player than to find a bust. Busting on first round picks can really set a team back as we have all seen.

You must be registered for see images attach

@Solar7 posted a study a few years back that demonstrated that the best round to take a WR was round two. Round two WRs had a lower bust rate than round one.

 

[Solar7]

This has been cited numerous times over the years on actual analysis of drafts.

Which Positions Are the Safest, Riskiest at the Top of the NFL Draft?

Are you better off drafting one position over another? Based strictly on precedents and trends, we set out to discover which positions have traditionally produced the most ...

syndication.bleacherreport.com

OT has amongst the lowest bust rates of any position. While you always want to find a star, it's still better to find a decent player than to find a bust. Busting on first round picks can really set a team back as we have all seen.

You must be registered for see images attach

@Solar7 posted a study a few years back that demonstrated that the best round to take a WR was round two. Round two WRs had a lower bust rate than round one.

I appreciate you citing my study again, lol.

Another thing to note is that the vast majority of NFL starting RBs come in rounds 2-3 (although this might have changed in the past few years, I feel like I did that analysis in 2020 or so). Finding a starting RB in the 4th or beyond as many suggest has been pretty poor. 1st round picks at RB are trending up in success, or at least starting roles, a little bit.

In fact, quick research shows that only 6 opening day starters at RB in 2023 were drafted outside of the top 3 rounds, a number that rises to 8 when accounting for two who went undrafted (Mostert and Ekeler). And one could argue that Dameon Pierce lost his job to a 3rd rounder in Devin Singletary, but the same can be said for Akers to Kyren Williams, making it a wash in terms of the numbers.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I appreciate you citing my study again, lol.

Another thing to note is that the vast majority of NFL starting RBs come in rounds 2-3 (although this might have changed in the past few years, I feel like I did that analysis in 2020 or so). Finding a starting RB in the 4th or beyond as many suggest has been pretty poor. 1st round picks at RB are trending up in success, or at least starting roles, a little bit.

In fact, quick research shows that only 6 opening day starters at RB in 2023 were drafted outside of the top 3 rounds, a number that rises to 8 when accounting for two who went undrafted (Mostert and Ekeler). And one could argue that Dameon Pierce lost his job to a 3rd rounder in Devin Singletary, but the same can be said for Akers to Kyren Williams, making it a wash in terms of the numbers.

Just look at the Packers and the constant success they have had with second round receivers. The Seahawks have found good ones later.

A guy to gamble on if you don't get one in round one would be Xavier Legette. He was a late bloomer, but his tape was as impressive as anyone in college football last year and he's 230 pounds.

 

[cardcrazy]

Passing on MHJ at #4 should not be an option!
There is no OL prospect worthy of passing on MHJ.
Period.

 

[Harry]

This has been cited numerous times over the years on actual analysis of drafts.

Which Positions Are the Safest, Riskiest at the Top of the NFL Draft?

Are you better off drafting one position over another? Based strictly on precedents and trends, we set out to discover which positions have traditionally produced the most ...

syndication.bleacherreport.com

OT has amongst the lowest bust rates of any position. While you always want to find a star, it's still better to find a decent player than to find a bust. Busting on first round picks can really set a team back as we have all seen.

You must be registered for see images attach

@Solar7 posted a study a few years back that demonstrated that the best round to take a WR was round two. Round two WRs had a lower bust rate than round one.

Bust rate is only 1 criterium of an effective draft. Certainly this is a warning sign but, for example, how many round 2 WRs become Pro Bowl players compared to round 1.