Sleeper pick at 20

[Cbus cardsfan]

I know this won't be popular but this guy wouldn't surprise me if he was the Cards pick at 20. We keep hearing Arians mention the need for a guy to take the top off a defense. Why not get the best one for that role? When you consider guys like Ebron, Kounadjio, all the QB's, Barr, Mack, Clowney, Matthews, and Robinson are all likely off the board, he makes sense. Lee won the Biletnikoff as a soph, played this year injured, and with new QB's. If he runs, as expected, in the 4.3/4.4 range, there will be alot of talk about him at 20. Prior to this year he was considered a top 10 pick.

Below is from Walterfootball:

Marqise Lee*, WR, USC
Height: 6-0. Weight: 190.
Projected 40 Time: 4.40.
Projected Round (2014): 1-2.

For the NFL, Lee looks like a potential No. 1 receiver. He is extremely fast and explosive. Lee also is a track star at USC. He projects as a receiver who will stretch a defense vertically and be a threat to score on any play. While Lee isn't the biggest or strongest, he plays bigger than his size and makes up for it with great route-running and hands.

 

[Stout]

Unless we fill all our needs in FA, we'd deserve not to make the playoffs the next 2-3 years if we draft a WR.

 

[Finito]

Not no, but HELL NO

 

[Dr. Jones]

I love him but winning teams focus on three major areas in the fist round at all times.

Protect the passer (OLinemen)
Rush the passer
Defend the pass CB's, S's, & Hyper Athletic LB's.

In most cases they leave the RB's, WR's, TE's, etc for the 2nd round and beyond.

 

[az jam]

I really like Lee and think he will become a top wr. I just don't see the Cards taking a wr with their first round with so many other needs. Keim says they want to get tougher in the front lines to compete with the Seahawks and 49ers. I think they will go for the best OL or DL with their pick and get a speed wr later in the draft. However if they took Lee I would not complain. Additionally if he runs in the 4.3/4.4 range he most likely will be gone before we pick.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I know this won't be popular but this guy wouldn't surprise me if he was the Cards pick at 20. We keep hearing Arians mention the need for a guy to take the top off a defense. Why not get the best one for that role? When you consider guys like Ebron, Kounadjio, all the QB's, Barr, Mack, Clowney, Matthews, and Robinson are all likely off the board, he makes sense. Lee won the Biletnikoff as a soph, played this year injured, and with new QB's. If he runs, as expected, in the 4.3/4.4 range, there will be alot of talk about him at 20. Prior to this year he was considered a top 10 pick.

Below is from Walterfootball:

Marqise Lee*, WR, USC
Height: 6-0. Weight: 190.
Projected 40 Time: 4.40.
Projected Round (2014): 1-2.

For the NFL, Lee looks like a potential No. 1 receiver. He is extremely fast and explosive. Lee also is a track star at USC. He projects as a receiver who will stretch a defense vertically and be a threat to score on any play. While Lee isn't the biggest or strongest, he plays bigger than his size and makes up for it with great route-running and hands.

I already had a post that said the Card's just might take a WR at 20 that can stretch the field...and I was laughed at, my football was taken away, and I walked home crying lol

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I love him but winning teams focus on three major areas in the fist round at all times.

Protect the passer (OLinemen)
Rush the passer
Defend the pass CB's, S's, & Hyper Athletic LB's.

In most cases they leave the RB's, WR's, TE's, etc for the 2nd round and beyond.

I don't know about that.
Seattle: Lynch and Harvin were both 1st round, granted not by them but still round 1.
Denver: Thomas and Moreno round 1
SF: Crabtree and Davis round 1
Cincy: Green, Gresham, Eifert round 1
NE: nodoby
SD: Matthews
GB: no 1st rounder but littered with 2nd rounders in Lacy, Nelson, Cobb
KC: Bowe

I agree that 3 1st round WR's would be a bit of overkill but Lee could likely be BPA at a position of need.

I'm all for Hageman, Ebron, or Kouandjio at 20 but if they're all gone, I'd take Lee over a guy like Lewan or Dennard.

 

[pacman]

lmao I respect your courage coming out here and saying that but we don't need another wide receiver. Seriously. Honestly. I don't even know how much of an impact he could have on this team. It'd be a waste of a pick. I'm getting angry now just thinking about us taking a wide receiver in the first round.

 

[pacman]

Also if the prospects you listed already being gone are the only ones that you know about I suggest you check out some more players. The way you talked about in your thread was that all of the guys that could have an impact on this team were already gone. Lots of good prospects are still on the board for us:

CB Darqueze Dennard
CB Justin Gilbert
OLB Dee Ford
S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
TE Jace Amaro

 

[Buckybird]

I just can buy it Cbus.

Do the Cards need a HR hitter? Yes. I've watched a lot of SC football (my 2nd fav team) and IMO Lee's speed on the field doesn't show me he's that dude, especially when you have Fitz & Floyd in the starting lineup.

 

[BW52]

Taking a WR when there are other areas (LT,TE,S ) that need upgrades would be a luxury that the Cards would be foolish to take.Thats as nice as I can say it.

 

[GimmedaBall]

If Cards stick with the BPA draft philosophy, any position is fair game depending upon the players taken off the board ahead of their #20 pick. Predicting who will still be available and who the Cards have high on their board has to be the point of discussion. If we were in the top 5 picks we might have a chance at prediction---as it stands the possibilites are way too complex at the stage of the draft guessing game. Cards earned some credibility with their 10-6 record and my hope is that FAs will now give greater consideration to joining the Cards---of course being in the same division as SF and Seahags can blow the theory away.

The pieces missing in Arians offense---a speed WR, a dominant pass catching TE, a LT who doesn't rank 32 in the league, a big back who can churn out the tough yards. I can see the Cards going after yet another WR if he is the BPA. . . regardless of any repairs to the OL via FA.

 

[Russ Smith]

I just can buy it Cbus.

Do the Cards need a HR hitter? Yes. I've watched a lot of SC football (my 2nd fav team) and IMO Lee's speed on the field doesn't show me he's that dude, especially when you have Fitz & Floyd in the starting lineup.

I think we have bigger needs but Lee is a great player. in HS he ran a 10.74 100 meters , 22.11 200 and longjumped just under 25 feet tripled jumped just under 45 feet. Great athlete, plays faster than he looks.

If it worked out he was the BPA and we picked him I certainly wouldn't be mad, but my guess is he winds up gone before that. I think he's going to be one of those guys who people fall in love with again at the combine and post season workouts when they remember how good he was with crappy QB's at USC.

 

[Totally_Red]

Matt Millen lives!

 

[kerouac9]

Drafting Lee would essentially signal the end to Larry Fitzgerald's tenure with the Cards in 2015 or 2016 at the latest. That's just a lot of draft capital to put at a position where there aren't enough passes to go around.

 

[Chopper0080]

...I don't see it. Not that Lee isn't a fantastic player, but can't see investing so much into a player who would see less than 60% of offensive snaps? I was pretty shocked to see how little Arians used 3 WR sets and it seems to be specifically a role usage. Arians is looking for a player who can get behind a S with just a little bit extra. Somewhere between Desean Jackson and Britton Golden.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Also if the prospects you listed already being gone are the only ones that you know about I suggest you check out some more players. The way you talked about in your thread was that all of the guys that could have an impact on this team were already gone. Lots of good prospects are still on the board for us:

CB Darqueze Dennard
CB Justin Gilbert
OLB Dee Ford
S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
TE Jace Amaro

Out of that group, the only guy I'd consider is Gilbert. Dennard does nothing for me, Ford is likely not big enough for the type of LB that Bowles uses, Dix is a FS whereas SS is our need, and Amaro doesn't bring much more to the table potential-wise, if anything, than Housler.

Van Noy, Ealy, and Jernigan, maybe Tuitt, would be guys to also look at although Lee likely will have a higher draft grade than all of them. Within the top 20 picks Clowney, Barr, Mack, 3 or 4 QB's, Matthews, Robinson, Kounadjio, Watkins, Hageman, Ebron are all probably of the board. I'm taking Lee over Zack Martin, Lewan, or 4 of the guys you mentioned.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

...I don't see it. Not that Lee isn't a fantastic player, but can't see investing so much into a player who would see less than 60% of offensive snaps? I was pretty shocked to see how little Arians used 3 WR sets and it seems to be specifically a role usage. Arians is looking for a player who can get behind a S with just a little bit extra. Somewhere between Desean Jackson and Britton Golden.

But you can't base everything on snap count. Lee brings the missing dimension to the offense and is very talented to boot. Maybe Arians didn't play 3 WR sets very much because he didn't have anyone to fill the role of a premium deep threat. I think Lee's overall playmaking ability is being overlooked to. He's a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball.

People, not me, were thinking Tavon Austin would be a good fit. I think Lee brings much more to the table in this offense. Of course, signing a Ted Ginn in free agency does the same thing.

 

[Russ Smith]

Drafting Lee would essentially signal the end to Larry Fitzgerald's tenure with the Cards in 2015 or 2016 at the latest. That's just a lot of draft capital to put at a position where there aren't enough passes to go around.

Probably blasphemy but how much longer do you expect Fitz to be the focal point of this offense?

I know he's only 30 but he'll be 31 this season, 10 full NFL years on his body already.

I am not saying the Cards should take a WR #1 but I don't think the argument is as clear they shouldn't anymore because Fitz is not the same player he used to be and that's not going to likely change.

I think it's a bit late to trade him he'd never bring enough now to be worth dealing him because he's on the downside now. Still a great player but the question is for how much longer.

He might play 5 more years I'm just not sure at what level.

 

[kerouac9]

Probably blasphemy but how much longer do you expect Fitz to be the focal point of this offense?

I know he's only 30 but he'll be 31 this season, 10 full NFL years on his body already.

I am not saying the Cards should take a WR #1 but I don't think the argument is as clear they shouldn't anymore because Fitz is not the same player he used to be and that's not going to likely change.

I think it's a bit late to trade him he'd never bring enough now to be worth dealing him because he's on the downside now. Still a great player but the question is for how much longer.

He might play 5 more years I'm just not sure at what level.

I don't think Fitz was the focal part of the offense this year, or even last year, and I don't expect him to be the focal part of the offense next year. I think the offense itself is the focal point--or the quarterback is the focal part of the offense.

We've talked about this before, but I don't believe that you can make a WR the focal point of any successful NFL offense--they just can't get the ball frequently enough. We feed Larry the ball because he's our best WR right now, but that's different than designing the offense around him.

I guess the question is whether you trust/believe that Michael Floyd can be the #1 WR in a successful NFL offense. I've seen enough at this point to believe that he probably can't be as good as A.J. Green, but can probably be as good as Demaryus Thomas (and maybe better--Thomas is a little bit of a pansy).

Basically, it's about maximizing the value of your #1 pick. As Chopper says, we don't use a 3rd WR enough to justify using a pick on another one. Maybe that's a function of Sowell needing help literally every play, and we'll see more 3WR sets in 2014. But if you're going to get real value out of your first-round picks, they need to be starters in Year 2, because you only get 4 years of cost-controlled production from them.

 

[WildBB]

Lee would obviously be a good fit with what Arians would like to do. As a matter of fact everyone is looking for the Next T Y Hilton just about.

Fitz along with Floyd, not as much. You add someone like Lee, it brings a whole different dynamic to that O. Add in Ellington and you suddenly are giving nightmares to D coordinators league wide.

I'm sure the rest of the league wouldn't want that scenario. We could do worse, I think he's a tough kid.

You'd have to weigh if you could add a better receiver than say an OLB in the 3rd Rd. that fits what you would like. Or better receiver in the 2nd if you really have a good chance at a TE you'd really like to have.

FA will be the ultimate decider though. No doubt.

 

[Russ Smith]

I don't think Fitz was the focal part of the offense this year, or even last year, and I don't expect him to be the focal part of the offense next year. I think the offense itself is the focal point--or the quarterback is the focal part of the offense.

We've talked about this before, but I don't believe that you can make a WR the focal point of any successful NFL offense--they just can't get the ball frequently enough. We feed Larry the ball because he's our best WR right now, but that's different than designing the offense around him.

I guess the question is whether you trust/believe that Michael Floyd can be the #1 WR in a successful NFL offense. I've seen enough at this point to believe that he probably can't be as good as A.J. Green, but can probably be as good as Demaryus Thomas (and maybe better--Thomas is a little bit of a pansy).

Basically, it's about maximizing the value of your #1 pick. As Chopper says, we don't use a 3rd WR enough to justify using a pick on another one. Maybe that's a function of Sowell needing help literally every play, and we'll see more 3WR sets in 2014. But if you're going to get real value out of your first-round picks, they need to be starters in Year 2, because you only get 4 years of cost-controlled production from them.

Right but the other side is he won't be a #3 Wr for his whole career, in fact it might not be more than 2 years as a #3.

We have to fix LT believe me if we pass on a starting LT to draft a WR I won't be happy, I am just not convinced a starting LT will be there when we pick, but a WR might. I think LT, TE, pass rusher hell even interior Dl are all bigger needs than WR.

I just think you can make a reasonable argument that adding a kid like Lee would make the offense much more dangerous than it is now. One of our big issues right now is lack of big plays on offense, we don't get those 2-3 play drives very often and when you have to put together 10 play drives, you increase the odds Carson throws one to the defense.

he's a dangerous guy on a team that right now really has only one dangerous big play guy and that's Ellington.

I'd be much more inclined to try and move up and get a guy who fills a bigger need if the price is right I just don't get the impression we have any intention of doing that.

 

[Chopper0080]

But you can't base everything on snap count. Lee brings the missing dimension to the offense and is very talented to boot. Maybe Arians didn't play 3 WR sets very much because he didn't have anyone to fill the role of a premium deep threat. I think Lee's overall playmaking ability is being overlooked to. He's a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball.

People, not me, were thinking Tavon Austin would be a good fit. I think Lee brings much more to the table in this offense. Of course, signing a Ted Ginn in free agency does the same thing.

Well, TY Hilton received 58% of the offensive snaps in 2012 under Bruce Arians. Andre Roberts 57% in 2013. I can't find Steeler snap count stats for 2011 but I imagine it will be similar. TE snap counts supports this a bit as well. IN 2012, the Colts TE snap counts were Dwayne Allen - 77%, Coby Fleener - 38% and Wesley Saunders - 15%. Cardinals 2013...Jim Dray 63%, Rob Housler - 48% and Jake Ballard - 15%. Our #3 TE had the same % of snaps as our 4th WR. In the past two seasons the offenses that Arians has run have had the TE1 has played more snaps than the WR3 and the TE2 has played more snaps than the WR4.

What I glean from this is...depth players at TE and WR will get very limited action and will be used to fill a very specific role. Also, the better we get at TE1, the more limited the reps will be for the TE2.

Snaps generally will end up as WR1, WR2, TE1, WR3, TE2, WR4/TE3, WR5 if the past two seasons are indicators..

 

[WildBB]

...I don't see it. Not that Lee isn't a fantastic player, but can't see investing so much into a player who would see less than 60% of offensive snaps? I was pretty shocked to see how little Arians used 3 WR sets and it seems to be specifically a role usage. Arians is looking for a player who can get behind a S with just a little bit extra. Somewhere between Desean Jackson and Britton Golden.

That 60% would go up with output. That 60% has the potential to be dynamic.

 

[Chopper0080]

Right but the other side is he won't be a #3 Wr for his whole career, in fact it might not be more than 2 years as a #3.

We have to fix LT believe me if we pass on a starting LT to draft a WR I won't be happy, I am just not convinced a starting LT will be there when we pick, but a WR might. I think LT, TE, pass rusher hell even interior Dl are all bigger needs than WR.

I just think you can make a reasonable argument that adding a kid like Lee would make the offense much more dangerous than it is now. One of our big issues right now is lack of big plays on offense, we don't get those 2-3 play drives very often and when you have to put together 10 play drives, you increase the odds Carson throws one to the defense.

he's a dangerous guy on a team that right now really has only one dangerous big play guy and that's Ellington.

I'd be much more inclined to try and move up and get a guy who fills a bigger need if the price is right I just don't get the impression we have any intention of doing that.

Sure a guy can develop, but you also have to factor in that more and more athletes ar eplaying WR in college so each year there are better players which can be found late in the draft. The NFL is not a league where you can afford to develop your early round picks, especially the first round. These players are drafted to play right away which most coaches agree is the best way to learn.

It's not that WR can't be an option in round 1, but is more that there will almost always be a WR option in round 1 if you need one. No reason to spend a high pick and then have him sit behind Fitz and Floyd for two (cost controlled) years because of the design of the offense.

I would rather use a 3rd rounder on a player with a more specialized skill set and allow them grow out of a role they are specifically suited for rather than take a player with a wider variety of skills and then try to smush them into a more limited/defined role.