Sleeper pick at 20

[kerouac9]

Right but the other side is he won't be a #3 Wr for his whole career, in fact it might not be more than 2 years as a #3.

We have to fix LT believe me if we pass on a starting LT to draft a WR I won't be happy, I am just not convinced a starting LT will be there when we pick, but a WR might. I think LT, TE, pass rusher hell even interior Dl are all bigger needs than WR.

I just think you can make a reasonable argument that adding a kid like Lee would make the offense much more dangerous than it is now. One of our big issues right now is lack of big plays on offense, we don't get those 2-3 play drives very often and when you have to put together 10 play drives, you increase the odds Carson throws one to the defense.

he's a dangerous guy on a team that right now really has only one dangerous big play guy and that's Ellington.

I'd be much more inclined to try and move up and get a guy who fills a bigger need if the price is right I just don't get the impression we have any intention of doing that.

I'd argue that most teams don't have a ton of 2-3 play drives. There are many more 10 play drives by any team than there are very, very short drives. Maybe more teams have drives where there are fewer passing attempts, but I'd guess that the average scoring drive in the NFL is 12 plays or more.

I don't doubt that adding an exceptional weapon on the offense would make it more dynamic, and I like Lee a lot as a prospect. I'm kind of the same opinion on drafting Lee that I was on drafting Floyd. If he's available at #20 overall, he's likely the best player on the board, so you take him and don't look back. But if you have a similarly evaluated prospect at defensive end, or rush linebacker, or in the defensive secondary, you probably get more marginal improvement on your roster by adding that guy.

We could probably get Derrious Heyward-Bey for $2M or less in free agency. Ted Ginn, Hakim Nicks, and Kenny Britt are all pending in free agency. In 2014, could those guys have a similar impact to Lee while allowing you to develop a future replacement with a lower draft pick, plus add an additional prospect with that #20 overall pick?

It's too early to be talking draft. We should be talking free agency, but my fear is that our free agent prospects are/will be too arcane to really make "fun" predictions on that.

 

[Chopper0080]

That 60% would go up with output. That 60% has the potential to be dynamic.

Arians isn't going to redesign his offensive scheme and philosophy to accomodate a rookie 1st round WR when he didn't for TY Hilton or Andre Roberts. All that will happen is that talented WR will be limited to a more specific role that will not allow him to use all of his talents and we will lose the two years where his contract in most managable.

It is having a Maserati in New York City. It looks great but in actual application, the value just isn't there. The city isn't set up for you to enjoy all of what the Maserati can do.

 

[WildBB]

Sure a guy can develop, but you also have to factor in that more and more athletes ar eplaying WR in college so each year there are better players which can be found late in the draft. The NFL is not a league where you can afford to develop your early round picks, especially the first round. These players are drafted to play right away which most coaches agree is the best way to learn.

It's not that WR can't be an option in round 1, but is more that there will almost always be a WR option in round 1 if you need one. No reason to spend a high pick and then have him sit behind Fitz and Floyd for two (cost controlled) years because of the design of the offense.

I would rather use a 3rd rounder on a player with a more specialized skill set and allow them grow out of a role they are specifically suited for rather than take a player with a wider variety of skills and then try to smush them into a more limited/defined role.

FA should tell the tale.

Say if Lee has TY Hilton impact, if that was 100% assured, would you pull that trigger in first Rd and not look back?

Now there is a 50% less chance that say Herron has maybe not quite as much impact (as TY or Lee) and you know this ahead of time just for s**** ANd giggles.

Who do you draft?

 

[Chopper0080]

I'd argue that most teams don't have a ton of 2-3 play drives. There are many more 10 play drives by any team than there are very, very short drives. Maybe more teams have drives where there are fewer passing attempts, but I'd guess that the average scoring drive in the NFL is 12 plays or more.

I don't doubt that adding an exceptional weapon on the offense would make it more dynamic, and I like Lee a lot as a prospect. I'm kind of the same opinion on drafting Lee that I was on drafting Floyd. If he's available at #20 overall, he's likely the best player on the board, so you take him and don't look back. But if you have a similarly evaluated prospect at defensive end, or rush linebacker, or in the defensive secondary, you probably get more marginal improvement on your roster by adding that guy.

We could probably get Derrious Heyward-Bey for $2M or less in free agency. Ted Ginn, Hakim Nicks, and Kenny Britt are all pending in free agency. In 2014, could those guys have a similar impact to Lee while allowing you to develop a future replacement with a lower draft pick, plus add an additional prospect with that #20 overall pick?

It's too early to be talking draft. We should be talking free agency, but my fear is that our free agent prospects are/will be too arcane to really make "fun" predictions on that.

too mystical? too confusing? too limited? too unclear?

 

[Totally_Red]

I'd argue that most teams don't have a ton of 2-3 play drives. There are many more 10 play drives by any team than there are very, very short drives. Maybe more teams have drives where there are fewer passing attempts, but I'd guess that the average scoring drive in the NFL is 12 plays or more.

I don't doubt that adding an exceptional weapon on the offense would make it more dynamic, and I like Lee a lot as a prospect. I'm kind of the same opinion on drafting Lee that I was on drafting Floyd. If he's available at #20 overall, he's likely the best player on the board, so you take him and don't look back. But if you have a similarly evaluated prospect at defensive end, or rush linebacker, or in the defensive secondary, you probably get more marginal improvement on your roster by adding that guy.

We could probably get Derrious Heyward-Bey for $2M or less in free agency. Ted Ginn, Hakim Nicks, and Kenny Britt are all pending in free agency. In 2014, could those guys have a similar impact to Lee while allowing you to develop a future replacement with a lower draft pick, plus add an additional prospect with that #20 overall pick?

It's too early to be talking draft. We should be talking free agency, but my fear is that our free agent prospects are/will be too arcane to really make "fun" predictions on that.

This is where I am. The marginal improvement in YEAR ONE with Lee is not what it would or should be at the other three positions.

Given the NFC West, the Cardinals have to have substanial contributions in year one from both their first and second rounders IMO. Last season those contributions were close to zero. 'We' can't afford another year like that even if the third and sixth rounders are lights-out contributors.

Unlike Seattle and San Francisco, the Cardinals aren't in a position to red-shirt their early picks. {Excepting SF's pick of safety Eric Reid.}

 

[Chopper0080]

FA should tell the tale.

Say if Lee has TY Hilton impact, if that was 100% assured, would you pull that trigger in first Rd and not look back?

Now there is a 50% less chance that say Herron has maybe not quite as much impact (as TY or Lee) and you know this ahead of time just for s**** ANd giggles.

Who do you draft?

I don't get your 50% less chance on Herron, but if you asking if I would rather have Lee in round 1 or Herron in round 3, I would say I would rather have Herron in round 3. TY Hilton only got 60% snaps when he was behind Donnie Avery his rookie year. Those are snaps by design, not snaps by production. Do I really believe that Lee will out produce Fitzgerald or Floyd? No, he won't get enough chances BY DESIGN.

 

[Chopper0080]

This is where I am. The marginal improvement in YEAR ONE with Lee is not what it would or should be at the other three positions.

Given the NFC West, the Cardinals have to have substanial contributions in year one from both their first and second rounders IMO. Last season those contributions were close to zero. 'We' can't afford another year like that even if the third and sixth rounders are lights-out contributors.

Unlike Seattle and San Francisco, the Cardinals aren't in a position to red-shirt their early picks. {Excepting SF's pick of safety Eric Reid.}

Yup.

18 players I like more than Marquise Lee

Teddy Bridgewater
Blake Bortles
Sammy Watkins Jr.
Jake Matthews
Greg Robinson

Eric Ebron
Jace Amaro
Jadaveon Clowney
Anthony Barr
Khalil Mack

Rashede Hageman
Aaron Donald
Dee Ford
Cyrus Kouandjio
Darqueze Dennard

Justin Gilbert
Hasean Clinton-Dix
Calvin Pryor

...and if they are all gone, I would trade back and acquire more picks.

 

[kerouac9]

too mystical? too confusing? too limited? too unclear?

Too unclear and confusing. Understood by few; mysterious or secret.

I don't think anyone here would've predicted that Rashard Mendenhall, Jasper Brinkley, Lorenzo Alexander, Yeremiah Bell, and Jerroud Powers were going to be five of our top 6 free agent targets.

That's why talk about Branden Albert is fun and everything, but I don't believe that it's going to really mean much when it's March 20. I think we're much more likely to end up with Roger Saffold than Eugene Monroe.

 

[Russ Smith]

I'd argue that most teams don't have a ton of 2-3 play drives. There are many more 10 play drives by any team than there are very, very short drives. Maybe more teams have drives where there are fewer passing attempts, but I'd guess that the average scoring drive in the NFL is 12 plays or more.

I don't doubt that adding an exceptional weapon on the offense would make it more dynamic, and I like Lee a lot as a prospect. I'm kind of the same opinion on drafting Lee that I was on drafting Floyd. If he's available at #20 overall, he's likely the best player on the board, so you take him and don't look back. But if you have a similarly evaluated prospect at defensive end, or rush linebacker, or in the defensive secondary, you probably get more marginal improvement on your roster by adding that guy.

We could probably get Derrious Heyward-Bey for $2M or less in free agency. Ted Ginn, Hakim Nicks, and Kenny Britt are all pending in free agency. In 2014, could those guys have a similar impact to Lee while allowing you to develop a future replacement with a lower draft pick, plus add an additional prospect with that #20 overall pick?

It's too early to be talking draft. We should be talking free agency, but my fear is that our free agent prospects are/will be too arcane to really make "fun" predictions on that.

I wouldn't touch DHB. I know he's improved but he is just one guy I don't trust. He plays well in games that mean nothing and disappears in games that do. I looked up his stats this year, 62 targets, 29 catches, and that's with teams usually just playing off him.

I think Lee is a MUCH better player than DHB but I agree if we have a similarly rated player at another position you take him and don't look back.

 

[Russ Smith]

Yup.

18 players I like more than Marquise Lee

Teddy Bridgewater
Blake Bortles
Sammy Watkins Jr.
Jake Matthews
Greg Robinson

Eric Ebron
Jace Amaro
Jadaveon Clowney
Anthony Barr
Khalil Mack

Rashede Hageman
Aaron Donald
Dee Ford
Cyrus Kouandjio
Darqueze Dennard

Justin Gilbert
Hasean Clinton-Dix
Calvin Pryor

...and if they are all gone, I would trade back and acquire more picks.

Most of them will be gone. Charles Davis on NFL.com currently has Lee going 5th overall to the Raiders so it sounds like even Lee is going to be gone well before we pick.

You can make a pretty good case he was every bit as good as Watkins before his injury, if he's healthy now he's not going to go considerably after Watkins.

Having seen both Watkins is probably the better athlete, Lee the better receiver right now.

 

[Southpaw]

Out of that group, the only guy I'd consider is Gilbert. Dennard does nothing for me, Ford is likely not big enough for the type of LB that Bowles uses, Dix is a FS whereas SS is our need, and Amaro doesn't bring much more to the table potential-wise, if anything, than Housler.

Van Noy, Ealy, and Jernigan, maybe Tuitt, would be guys to also look at although Lee likely will have a higher draft grade than all of them. Within the top 20 picks Clowney, Barr, Mack, 3 or 4 QB's, Matthews, Robinson, Kounadjio, Watkins, Hageman, Ebron are all probably of the board. I'm taking Lee over Zack Martin, Lewan, or 4 of the guys you mentioned.

Just wondering how much of Jace Amaro you have seen?

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Just wondering how much of Jace Amaro you have seen?

I've seen him play 2 or 3 games. It's easy to put up numbers when you're the main target of a team that throws 50+ times a game. James Casey at Rice was in a similar situation, but probably a better overall athlete, that put up big numbers in that style of offense. Granted, Amaro is bigger and will be tougher to cover in the NFL than Casey but I'm not blinded by the huge numbers Amaro put up in that offense.

I said in a different thread that Amaro may be a better football player than Housler but ceiling and talent-wise, there is not much difference. Amaro is about 6'6 260, Housler 6'5 255 and they both run around a 4.7(I would suspect Housler's a touch faster) forty and are receivers first with limited blocking skills. To me, it's just a matter of if you deem Housler a total waste and hope Amaro lives up to his potential that you would make that pick.

I think the only difference making TE in round 1 is Ebron.

 

[Southpaw]

I've seen him play 2 or 3 games. It's easy to put up numbers when you're the main target of a team that throws 50+ times a game. James Casey at Rice was in a similar situation, but probably a better overall athlete, that put up big numbers in that style of offense. Granted, Amaro is bigger and will be tougher to cover in the NFL than Casey but I'm not blinded by the huge numbers Amaro put up in that offense.

I said in a different thread that Amaro may be a better football player than Housler but ceiling and talent-wise, there is not much difference. Amaro is about 6'6 260, Housler 6'5 255 and they both run around a 4.7(I would suspect Housler's a touch faster) forty and are receivers first with limited blocking skills. To me, it's just a matter of if you deem Housler a total waste and hope Amaro lives up to his potential that you would make that pick.

I think the only difference making TE in round 1 is Ebron.

You and I are miles apart on Amaro. I've watched most of his games for 2 years. The difference in his game from year 2 to 3 is huge. I have also watched Ebron in the ACC games. He is a big WR and closer to Housler than Amaro is. Amaro is more like Gronkowski.

 

[Southpaw]

I've seen him play 2 or 3 games. It's easy to put up numbers when you're the main target of a team that throws 50+ times a game. James Casey at Rice was in a similar situation, but probably a better overall athlete, that put up big numbers in that style of offense. Granted, Amaro is bigger and will be tougher to cover in the NFL than Casey but I'm not blinded by the huge numbers Amaro put up in that offense.

I said in a different thread that Amaro may be a better football player than Housler but ceiling and talent-wise, there is not much difference. Amaro is about 6'6 260, Housler 6'5 255 and they both run around a 4.7(I would suspect Housler's a touch faster) forty and are receivers first with limited blocking skills. To me, it's just a matter of if you deem Housler a total waste and hope Amaro lives up to his potential that you would make that pick.

I think the only difference making TE in round 1 is Ebron.

You and I are miles apart on Amaro. I've watched most of his games for 2 years more . The difference in his game from year 2 to 3 is huge. I have also watched Ebron in the ACC games. He is a big WR and closer to Housler than Amaro is. Amaro is more like Gronkowski.

 

[Bodha]

Lee is supremely overrated

and also very injury prone. Hes kind of like Percy Harvin. Deadly with the ball in open field, but he has to stay on the field. And thats been his heel.



for people talking about TEs, I love Arthur Lynch out of Georgia. Hes a lock in, fuggetaboutem, long term dependable blue collar TE. Blue chip blocker. dependable receiver. 3-4th round. *also, reports are out that the Cards met with Mr.Arthur at the EW Shrine game

 

[Southpaw]

Better prospects than Lee;

Odell Beckham LSU
Allen Robinson Penn State
Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
Brandin Cooks Oregon St

and they are not all going 1st round, if any IMNSHO.

 

[Russ Smith]

Better prospects than Lee;

Odell Beckham LSU
Allen Robinson Penn State
Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
Brandin Cooks Oregon St

and they are not all going 1st round, if any IMNSHO.

Says who? If that's your opinion that's great but you won't find too many people who do it for a living who agree with you. On most mock drafts Lee is the 2nd or 3rd rated WR behind Watkins. Cooks was a very productive college player but he looks like he may be a system guy, hard to say he's small but tough, like him but over Lee no way.

Matthews is a possession guy most have him rated at best a 2nd rounder most likely 3rd or 4th.

Robinson looks the part but apparently has scouts concerned about his speed. If he runs 4.5 or lower he's a first rounder, if not he'll slide.

We'll find out when the draft happens but right now most draft boards have Lee ahead of all those kids.

Beckham is the highest rated of that group, he's also the one kid in that group who can run with Lee at least before Lee got hurt. That's really the question on Lee nobody knows how he'll run at the combine because he wasn't 100% when he came back and finished off the season.

 

[WildBB]

Better prospects than Lee;

Odell Beckham LSU
Allen Robinson Penn State
Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
Brandin Cooks Oregon St

and they are not all going 1st round, if any IMNSHO.

I like Beckham and Cooks. The other two are all right, that's about it. Niothing spectacular.

If Lee can stay on the field there's really not a comparison.

If they really wanted to move Fitz this year, maybe the guy they should target is 6'5" Kelvin Benjamin - Fla. St.

Seems to me that would be a pretty good trade off long term. I doubt they will do that though. They're all in for one year.

 

[Russ Smith]

I like Beckham and Cooks. The other two are all right, that's about it. Niothing spectacular.

If Lee can stay on the field there's really not a comparison.

If they really wanted to move Fitz this year, maybe the guy they should target is 6'5" Kelvin Benjamin - Fla. St.

Seems to me that would be a pretty good trade off long term. I doubt they will do that though. They're all in for one year.

Benjamin is a big slower guy though so yeah to replace Fitz maybe but wouldn't fit with the current group he's too similar.

That's the one thing that makes a Lee or a Beckham type interesting, they have the separation speed we don't have now.

 

[WildBB]

Benjamin is a big slower guy though so yeah to replace Fitz maybe but wouldn't fit with the current group he's too similar.

That's the one thing that makes a Lee or a Beckham type interesting, they have the separation speed we don't have now.

Yeah, I mentioned Benjamin if they really did get something for Fitz. Cooks could work in that case as well.

Otherwise Lee, Beckham or Herron. Maybe Huff.

 

[Cardsfanstl]

Also if the prospects you listed already being gone are the only ones that you know about I suggest you check out some more players. The way you talked about in your thread was that all of the guys that could have an impact on this team were already gone. Lots of good prospects are still on the board for us:

CB Darqueze Dennard
CB Justin Gilbert
OLB Dee Ford
S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
TE Jace Amaro

If Gilbert is there at 20 I will be surprised. He would be my choice.

 

[WildBB]

If Gilbert is there at 20 I will be surprised. He would be my choice.

Getting a starting CB down the road opposite PP in a passing league wouldn't be that bad.

Dee Ford or Kony Ealy could sure create some havoc though. Have one of them and Abraham come off the edges on 3rd downs.

One would take over for Abraham after he retires. Lots of choices. Many ways to go.

 

[Jay Cardinal]

I think Lee would be a great, but risky pick in the first. I think the speed receiver is Bruce Arians' number 1 need to get out of this draft. I believe 3 years from now Lee will be successful in the league, regardless of where he is chosen. It would make the rest of the draft kind of tricky to fill other spots, but I would be on board if Keim feels as highly of Lee as I do.

 

[Totally_Red]

If Gilbert is there at 20 I will be surprised. He would be my choice.

I suspect that if either Gilbert or Dennard make it past #14 or 15, the Whiners will trade up and grab whichever one is available. Cornerback is probably their #1 offseason priority.

 

[pacman]

Getting a starting CB down the road opposite PP in a passing league wouldn't be that bad.

Dee Ford or Kony Ealy could sure create some havoc though. Have one of them and Abraham come off the edges on 3rd downs.

One would take over for Abraham after he retires. Lots of choices. Many ways to go.

Ealy can't play OLB in our 3-4 scheme. Ford absolutely.