So we are the underdogs at home against Seattle

[john h]

710ESPN Seattle audio: Underdog Cards


September, 3, 2012
Sep 3
5:00
PM ET
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

An underwhelming quarterback competition and key injuries to offensive linemen have lowered outside expectations for the Arizona Cardinals.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt has apparently noticed.

Asked about noticing any difference in practice with John Skelton as the starting quarterback, Whisenhunt worked in a reference to the Cardinals' underdog status against Seattle in Week 1:

"It’s too early to talk about noticing a difference. I thought we had good work today. That's the only thing that I'm really concerned about.

"We have a task this week going against Seattle. They look like a good football club. Not many people are giving us a chance, so we have to make sure we keep our head down and work."​

The Seahawks are indeed betting favorites at Arizona. The last time the Cardinals were a home underdog, they beat the 10-2 San Francisco 49ers, 21-19, in Week 14. Skelton completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 282 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in that game.

Should it feel like an upset if the Cardinals win Sunday? We discussed the possibilities Monday on 710ESPN Seattle. Here's the audio. Skip ahead to the 3:57 mark for the lead-in to my segment.

If Seattle starts a rookie QB I would make a bet on the Cards. A rookie is still a rookie. I think Troy Aikman lost 11 games his first year. It may have been he won only one. Not sure but he was not good. I can see 1-2 interceptions in this game as I think we do have good or excellent DB's. Just hope the Cards can hold all our interest through the first 8 games and we are not out of the hunt by the end of October. A couple of wins to start the season could do wonders for the entire team.

 

[kerouac9]

Yeah, that's true - but Simmons argument on Fitz's rating is that he's being penalized for the situation he is in. Although younger, Megatron has an even bigger contract and was ~20 spots ahead of Larry. Simmons said that if you put Fitz in the same situation as Megatron, the two would probably end up rated about the same in terms of value. Even if Fitz did have a lot to do with the situation that he's in, should that really impact his trade value? Also, even with how desparate our O-line situation is currently, I have no doubt that UOP would be burned to the ground if Larry Fitzgerald was traded for Duane Brown (Brown was ranked higher on the list).

According to Spotrac, Megatron's extension was 8 years, $150.5 million with $73.25 million guaranteed(?!). Wow.

Interesting--according to Spotrac, Fitz has "de-escalators" in his deal for seasons below 80 receptions.

IMO Fitz is the second-best WR in the game after Megatron. Megatron is Fitz with Andre Johnson's speed.

Fans would be pissed if we traded Fitz for Duane Brown, and Fitz's value is low outside the league because he's on terrible/irrelevant teams, but Brown is making just $53.4 million over the next six years. I don't know. As I said, Fitz is worth more to the Cards than he is to anyone else.

 

[Mulli]

Wow, this is the first I have heard of Duane Brown. And I know of a few on here that would love that trade if it meant the Cards would circle the wagons and run the ball all the time.

 

[BigRedRage]

fitz #1

Seahags suck.

 

[Duckjake]

Fitz's contract is monstrous. He's worth more to the Cards than he is anyone else. Maybe Barnwell weighted contracts too heavily, but I think that national figures who follow the Cards (fantasy owners, bascially) are incredibly frustrated at the situation that Fitz placed himself with the team. Imagine Fitz as a Bear or Charger. With an above-average quarterback, it's difficult to imagine his ceiling.

Fitzgerald was 4th in receiving yards last season. What are these fantasy owners looking for from him? 1850 yards?

 

[Mulli]

Fitzgerald was 4th in receiving yards last season. What are these fantasy owners looking for from him? 1850 yards?

touchdowns?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Cardinals are a hard team to beat at home. In what is basically a coin flip, take the home team.

 

[Chaz]

Then there is this:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...eport-marshawn-lynchs-week-1-status-uncertain

Could the Seattle Seahawks be without Marshawn Lynch this weekend?

The Pro Bowl running back is dealing with back spasms that might sideline him against the Arizona Cardinals, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

 

[Duckjake]

touchdowns?

I didn't think TDs meant that much these days and yards and distance and xy/p-z56 were more important. Fitz career high was 13. Only 5 more than last year. Would that make a big difference to a fantasy owner?

Don't really know because I quit playing fantasy football when it became necessary to own a Cray Computer to find out how many points you had.

It was more fun when it was scoring only. You could even get arrested for playing it back in the old days which made it even more exciting.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I didn't think TDs meant that much these days and yards and distance and xy/p-z56 were more important. Fitz career high was 13. Only 5 more than last year. Would that make a big difference to a fantasy owner?

the difference between 8 and 13 TDs is a pretty big one in FF.

 

[Duckjake]

the difference between 8 and 13 TDs is a pretty big one in FF.

Interesting. I didn't think 1.8 points or so a week would make that much difference in the modern leagues.

We used to fight over kickers because the best one's would outscore the worst ones by 4-5 points a game.

 

[THESMEL]

Golden Tate's out with a knee

 

[az1965]

Am I the only one who actually expects to win and maybe easily Sunday?

I just have a feeling Wilson is in for what happens to a lot of rookie QB's, a learning curve.

I watched him against the Raiders, who have a good DL, and he looked mediocre. had a possible TD pass dropped but he really had trouble in that game he looked like a short QB who was having trouble finding lanes to throw in.

I'm more worried about Seattle's defense against us. I think the game will be controlled by the defenses and turnovers and special teams will decide it. Because their QB is a rookie, and we have Peterson, I expect our defense and ST to win the game over theirs.

I think this is going to be one of those games where the QB trying to make plays is going to hurt his team, the guy willing to take what's there and punt will probably win.

I expect us to win this Sunday.

 

[az1965]

Well, go to the matchups:

Cards rush defense vs. Seattle running game: SEATTLE. Seattle has a productive rusher in Marshawn Lynch, and our defense has struggled to contain the run in the preseason and the 2011 regular season.

There is a possibility Lynch may be out with back spasms. nfl.com reports.

 

[az1965]

Special Teams: SEATTLE. This is going to be an unpopular opinion. Yes, Patrick Peterson is a special punt returner, but Leon Washington is pretty good, too. The Cards special teams have struggled preventing big punt returns, and if the offense can't pick up first downs even on failed drives, field position is going to be a major problem.

.

Obviously, I disagree here... In addition to Peterson, we have Campbell and Bethel blocking kicks, LSH who even though had a down year last year can break it any time on KO.

 

[az1965]

Good analysis -- 2 quick comments:

1. Until we see what we've got at QB/O-line, I have a hard time believing our pass offense has an advantage against any pass defense.

Well, all you have to do is go see last year's performance with our starting QB and you will see a 6-2 record, who now has a complete off season to prepare for the season. So, do you expect him to do worse?

 

[az1965]

Wilson may turn out to be better than Skelton I have no idea but my guess is he'll be more confused by our defense than he was in the preseason.

You can bet on it that Horton's going to scheme the hell out of this undersized kid.

 

[az1965]

If Seattle starts a rookie QB I would make a bet on the Cards. A rookie is still a rookie. I think Troy Aikman lost 11 games his first year. It may have been he won only one. Not sure but he was not good. I can see 1-2 interceptions in this game as I think we do have good or excellent DB's. Just hope the Cards can hold all our interest through the first 8 games and we are not out of the hunt by the end of October. A couple of wins to start the season could do wonders for the entire team.

Not only will they be starting a 5'10" rookie QB, they will also have a rookie RG (Sweezy) and most likely rookie RB Turban will replace Lynch as a power back if Lynch ends up being out.

 

[Phrazbit]

On a positive note; Skeletor is 6-0 at home.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Not only will they be starting a 5'10" rookie QB, they will also have a rookie RG (Sweezy) and most likely rookie RB Turban will replace Lynch as a power back if Lynch ends up being out.

If history is any indictaor, pick up Turban and start him in FF. Hopefully backup RB's killing the Cards is a thing of the past.

 

[gmabel830]

Well, all you have to do is go see last year's performance with our starting QB and you will see a 6-2 record, who now has a complete off season to prepare for the season. So, do you expect him to do worse?

If the only thing you are going to look at with Skelton's performance last year is W-L record, then he would need to go 12-4 this year to maintain his level of performance. So, yes I expect him to be worse -- much, much worse -- under that measure.

Do I expect Skelton to be worse statistically than last year? Hard to say -- he has a worse offensive line, but more experience in the system. Let's put it this way, I wouldn't be willing to bet money on any significant statistical improvement at this point. And, do I expect that the same basic level of performance out of Skelton would yield the same W-L results over the long haul -- definitely not.

My overall point was that until I see Skelton produce behind this offense line in a real game, I wouldn't say that our passing offense is an advantage over any team in the NFL right now.

 

[Duckjake]

If the only thing you are going to look at with Skelton's performance last year is W-L record, then he would need to go 12-4 this year to maintain his level of performance. So, yes I expect him to be worse -- much, much worse -- under that measure.

Do I expect Skelton to be worse statistically than last year? Hard to say -- he has a worse offensive line, but more experience in the system. Let's put it this way, I wouldn't be willing to bet money on any significant statistical improvement at this point. And, do I expect that the same basic level of performance out of Skelton would yield the same W-L results over the long haul -- definitely not.

My overall point was that until I see Skelton produce behind this offense line in a real game, I wouldn't say that our passing offense is an advantage over any team in the NFL right now.

It is hard to say. Let's look at the situation Skelton was in last year. He is thrust into the starters role after Kolb goes out and John gets a good situation in his start vs St.Louis at home and plays ok, but then has to start 3 straight weeks on the road with back to back games at Philadelphia and at SF. That's tough for any QB let alone a guy as inexperienced as Skelton and John is terrible.

Then the Cards come home and Skelton goes back to the bench for a week and has to come back in on a moments notice vs SF and has his best game of the season followed by another good game vs Cleveland also at home. So it looks like he's getting better the more he plays and in the comfortable confines of UPS. But then he goes to Cincy and has another sub par game. Then back home vs Seattle he has a mediocre game but goes 4-4 in overtime during the drive for the winning FG.

So which guy are we going to get? The guy who improved statistically vs SF and Cleveland after 4 starts or the guy who regressed vs Cincinnati and Seattle or the guy who was terrible on the 3 game road trip?

I'm expecting him to play like he did vs St.Louis and Cleveland at home last year in 2012. No tough 3 game road trip, more experience, and 3 of the first 4 games at home to help him get settled as the full time starter. We can win with those type numbers. Maybe.

But as has been said the TD:INT ratio has to improve or we're toast. We're probably toast anyway with our offensive line situation.

 

[Chopper0080]

It is hard to say. Let's look at the situation Skelton was in last year. He is thrust into the starters role after Kolb goes out and John gets a good situation in his start vs St.Louis at home and plays ok, but then has to start 3 straight weeks on the road with back to back games at Philadelphia and at SF. That's tough for any QB let alone a guy as inexperienced as Skelton and John is terrible.

Then the Cards come home and Skelton goes back to the bench for a week and has to come back in on a moments notice vs SF and has his best game of the season followed by another good game vs Cleveland also at home. So it looks like he's getting better the more he plays and in the comfortable confines of UPS. But then he goes to Cincy and has another sub par game. Then back home vs Seattle he has a mediocre game but goes 4-4 in overtime during the drive for the winning FG.

So which guy are we going to get? The guy who improved statistically vs SF and Cleveland after 4 starts or the guy who regressed vs Cincinnati and Seattle or the guy who was terrible on the 3 game road trip?

I'm expecting him to play like he did vs St.Louis and Cleveland at home last year in 2012. No tough 3 game road trip, more experience, and 3 of the first 4 games at home to help him get settled as the full time starter. We can win with those type numbers. Maybe.

But as has been said the TD:INT ratio has to improve or we're toast. We're probably toast anyway with our offensive line situation.

Good QBs overcome poor offensive lines and make them look good. If Skelton is a QB worth keeping, he will be successful despite the offensive line.

 

[Buckybird]

Good QBs overcome poor offensive lines and make them look good. If Skelton is a QB worth keeping, he will be successful despite the offensive line.

Yeppers!

I've been waiting for all the Skeltons homers, to blame the problems of the Oline if Bones sucks, just like some did because Kolb didn't have a full TC last year. IMO both aren't good enough to win us a Super Bowl or even compete for one, which is the goal.

 

[kerouac9]

Yeppers!

I've been waiting for all the Skeltons homers, to blame the problems of the Oline if Bones sucks, just like some did because Kolb didn't have a full TC last year. IMO both aren't good enough to win us a Super Bowl or even compete for one, which is the goal.

Well then let's just fold up shop now and forfeit the season. Alex Smith certainly isn't good enough to lead his team to a division championship. There's no way a scatter-armed ox like Tim Tebow can take anyone to the playoffs. In fact, if you can't win 10 games, don't bother playing one. You'll never win a Super Bowl.

A lot can happen in the playoffs. No team had beaten Favre in the playoffs in Lambeau until someone did. Focus on having enough talent to win the division, and worry about winning in the playoffs when you're there.