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San Antonio wants to keep the score below 100, but despite the 111-106 Game 1 final , it was Phoenix that appeared to be climbing uphill most of the game, often forced to hit tough shots to keep within striking distance. The Spurs play the league's best transition defense and, as expected, they made Phoenix play half-court ball.
Phoenix's goal is to get shots up quickly, but when San Antonio contains early offense, the Suns must be cautious in their shot selection. San Antonio's D makes each possession too important to exchange quality looks for tempo, and the same way Phoenix' offense relies on quick shots to feed the pace, San Antonio's defense builds momentum from quick-shot misses and long possessions at the other end.
We wrote in the series preview about Amare Stoudemire's need to stay out of foul trouble, as he is Phoenix's only true interior presence. In Game 1 he picked up his third foul in the first half on a crucial four-point swing call (Phoenix was in transition with a six-point lead as the whistle blew, resulting in a potential eight-point lead being reduced to four with a pair of Duncan foul shots), causing Mike D'Antoni to take him off Tim Duncan defensively.
Duncan was then guarded by Kurt Thomas, Boris Diaw and Shawn Marion until the fourth quarter, when D'Antoni switched back to Stoudemire and Phoenix closed the lead. No single player is going to stop Duncan -- and Phoenix did play him straight up pretty much the whole game -- but Stoudemire neutralizes him when they are head-to-head and has a history of doing so. Keeping Stoudemire from early foul trouble will be at the top of Phoenix's agenda as they plan for Game 2.
In the meantime, will Phoenix consider an adjustment should Stoudemire once again land in foul trouble? Duncan scored too easily against Phoenix's alternate defenders and the Suns may look to make other people than Duncan beat them while being guarded straight up by anyone not named Amare. The only consistent double-team on Duncan came off Jacque Vaughn's man, and it proved to be effective, forcing the kickout. Vaughn's looks didn't burn the Suns.
A big storyline from Game 1 was San Antonio's ability to control the boards. The Spurs dominated the glass not with frontline players, but from the 1, 2 and 3 spots, where they posted at 22-7 advantage. In Game 2 the Suns must do a better job in particular of limiting San Antonio to one shot. Keeping wings at home may limit early offense and feed San Antonio's style, but the Spurs' D makes possessions too valuable to allow them an additional 14 shots via the offensive glass.
With Stoudemire in foul trouble, Steve Nash out for most of the final minute and San Antonio largely controlling the pace, Game 1 was nonetheless right there for Phoenix to win, and they will take energy away from this.
Phoenix would be in a precarious place if it were to drop the first two at home, but we like the way the Suns handled adversity in Game 1, despite the loss. Right now San Antonio and Detroit are playing the best ball in the league, but the beauty of the playoffs is that it can change on a dime.
[FONT=Arial,Hevetica,sans-serif]PREDICTION: Phoenix wins Game 2[/FONT]
