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Boras maintains his stable of 2005 draft prospects is more signable than teams suspect. He e-mailed scouting directors to that effect, and says this year’s group isn’t looking to exceed what he calls “industry norms.” But clubs are skeptical of how he defines that term. Weaver and Drew have yet to accept financial packages that are bigger than any given to other players in the 2004 draft.
Weaver was BA’s top-rated prospect and Drew the top-rated position player last year, but concerns over their bonus demands caused them to slide to the 12th and 15th picks. The Angels and Diamondbacks won’t discuss the specifics of their offers, but industry sources say Weaver has turned down both a $5.25 million major league contract and a straight $4 million bonus. Drew has declined a big league deal that includes a $5.5 million guarantee and could total $7.5 million with easily attainable incentives.
Though Boras says, “Never say never,” he has indicated that he believes Weaver and Drew will re-enter the 2005 draft. If that happens, there’s no telling where they would be picked and no indication that a club will match the deals they turned down. It also could cause his other clients to slide.
“He needs to get Weaver and Drew signed, or it kills his guys for this year,” the NL scouting director says. “What’s he going to do, stockpile them like cordwood? If Weaver and Drew don’t get done, you’re going to feel good about taking Pelfrey and Hochevar?”
Says an American League counterpart: “They’re going to sign. Scott’s not dumb. He may say he thinks they’re going to re-enter the draft, but I can almost guarantee they’re going to sign. They have to. He’s going to go to the last minute to get the last penny. That’s just Negotiating 101 with Scott Boras.”
Rizzo says he remains optimistic Drew will sign with the Diamondbacks, who thought he was the best prospect in the 2004 draft.
“I felt like I could sign the guy,” says Rizzo, who worked out seven-figure bonuses for Boras clients Casey Daigle and Mike Gosling when Arizona drafted them. “We’ve put our best foot forward. I like having the opportunity to take the best player in the 2004 draft, even if we don’t sign him, rather than just taking the 15th-best player at No. 15.”
Even if Weaver and Drew come to terms before the 2005 draft, most of Boras’ players are expected to drop further than their ability would dictate.
“Pelfrey and Hochevar are still going to go close to where they should because they’re top guys,” the AL scouting director says. “With the rest of his crew, Scott will impact where they go.”
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The commissioner’s office has accomplished its goal of holding bonuses in check, as last year’s first-round average ($1,807,000) was less than 1999’s ($1,810,000). Even if Weaver and Drew drive that number closer to $2 million, that still will be less than 2001 (a record $2,154,000) and 2002 ($2,107,000).
MLB’s next goal is to cut down on the number of major league contracts given to draftees. Since the commissioner’s office started recommending bonuses for picks in the first 10 rounds in 2000, 15 players have gotten big league deals—four more than the total for the previous 35 drafts. MLB may not be as successful on this front, as the top picks have come to expect major league contracts, and Upton, Gordon, Pelfrey and Hochevar—not to mention Weaver and Drew—figure to command them this year.
