Stephen Drew Thread

[WizardOfAz]

Great news.

I agree - can't wait to see what the kid does in 'A' ball.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

I agree - can't wait to see what the kid does in 'A' ball.

If he's anything like his brother it'll be a short stay. My guess is he'll be in AAA by the end of this season and get a September call-up in 2006.

 

[AZZenny]

"It showed that Stephen Drew really wanted to be a Diamondback,"

8 E in 19 games is nothing to get too ecstatic about in the middle infield - let's see what happens in our minors when he gets more regular play under his belt. He recently reinjured his ankle, so I imagine they'll want him to rehab and get shipshape in Tucson for awhile. He is supposed to have great speed and bat. Both he and Upton get projected to the OF by many scouts because of defense - as a matter of fact, there seem to be darn few youngsters who are profiled as definite middle infielders, now that I think about it. With Upton it's not the glove, as much as undisciplined throwing arm - supposed to have enormous strength, maybe too much for SS.

 

[Lefty]

Drew and Weaver were stupid to sit out the entire year. They really did not win by not signing. Hopefully the guys who have Boras this year will learn from those two.

I hope the Diamondbacks pick a college pitcher. They don't have many good arms in their minor league system, and you can't have enough pitching.

I will not be surprised if the Diamondbacks pick a college pitcher because they have been using Billy Beane's philosophy in the draft.

 

[Stan C]

They have a lot of rounds to get college pitchers, not in the first I hope.

 

[Lefty]

They have a lot of rounds to get college pitchers, not in the first I hope.

I would take a college pitcher over a high school player with the first pick. College players being picked in the first round have a much higher percentage of reaching the majors than high school players.

 

[devilalum]

I would take a college pitcher over a high school player with the first pick. College players being picked in the first round have a much higher percentage of reaching the majors than high school players.

That's fine but you might be passing up the next Ken Griffey Jr. to take the next Casey Daigle.

 

[Lefty]

That's fine but you might be passing up the next Ken Griffey Jr. to take the next Casey Daigle.

We could be passing up the next Roger Clemens. What I am trying to say is if we are looking down the road the Diamondbacks need pitching. They have a lot of hitters in their minor league system.

 

[Brandon_Webb]

We could be passing up the next Roger Clemens. What I am trying to say is if we are looking down the road the Diamondbacks need pitching. They have a lot of hitters in their minor league system.

You don't draft on need with the first pick in the draft. Especially with the top 3 college throwers being Boras clients.

 

[Lefty]

You don't draft on need with the first pick in the draft. Especially with the top 3 college throwers being Boras clients.

After what happened to Drew and Weaver, I doubt any of Boras' clients will be holding out that long.

 

[Brandon_Webb]

After what happened to Drew and Weaver, I doubt any of Boras' clients will be holding out that long.

It's worked for the past 20 years, I don't see why it wouldn't work again.

 

[NickelBack]

If he's anything like his brother it'll be a short stay. My guess is he'll be in AAA by the end of this season and get a September call-up in 2006.

Can't see how anyone would be upset by that!

 

[AZZenny]

Drew is a five-tool player who should make an impact offensively wherever he winds up on the diamond. He should hit for a high average with solid power and is a top basestealing threat. Most scouts believe Drew can stay at shortstop, though some project him moving to either center field or second base.

With negotiations at a stalemate this spring, both Drew and Weaver joined with the Camden Riversharks of the independent Atlantic League. Drew signed April 20 and was leading the league in batting (.427), on-base percentage (.484) and slugging percentage (.744) when he agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks. He went 3-for-4 with a grand slam in his final game Monday, one day after he homered off the top of Camden's 50-foot scoreboard.

From BA. They said had he re-entered the draft, may have gone to the Yankees at #17. Also that Weaver would have been hurt worse because a pitcher who hasn't thrown competitively in a year understandably concerened teams - same will be true of Boras' top 3 this time.

The problem with 'lots of hitting' in the minors is that statistically, MAYBE 2-3 of our current farmhands will ever be top players - all-stars - and with enormous luck, another 3-4 will be decent everyday or solid utility/relief type players. The attrition rate is horrendous.

Right now Zeringue, D'Antoni, Santos, all are struggling to adjust. Maybe they will, maybe not. A 'sure thing' bat - and Upton is as close as you can get apparently - can't be ignored. None of the top pitchers is really #1 pick good - they are behind 3 or 4 position guys this year.

 

[Lefty]

It's worked for the past 20 years, I don't see why it wouldn't work again.

Weaver and Drew held out longer than any draft pick and it won't happen again. What did Drew and Weaver gain from sitting out? Nothing. They did not get any more money than they would of last year and they lost almost a year of playing.

I'm not going to sit here and keep arguing about whether they should pick a high school or college player because it looks like a sure thing Upton will be their pick. I just look at the draft history and see college players have a better chance at making it in the majors as a #1 pick than a high school player.

By the way, look at the Diamondbacks top prospects in the minors, Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson. Both went to college and climbed the ladder very fast. Conor said in a radio interview last week that he would not be where he is if he did not go to college. He said he would recommend everyone should go to college.

 

[Lefty]

Drew is a five-tool player who should make an impact offensively wherever he winds up on the diamond. He should hit for a high average with solid power and is a top basestealing threat. Most scouts believe Drew can stay at shortstop, though some project him moving to either center field or second base.

With negotiations at a stalemate this spring, both Drew and Weaver joined with the Camden Riversharks of the independent Atlantic League. Drew signed April 20 and was leading the league in batting (.427), on-base percentage (.484) and slugging percentage (.744) when he agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks. He went 3-for-4 with a grand slam in his final game Monday, one day after he homered off the top of Camden's 50-foot scoreboard.

From BA. They said had he re-entered the draft, may have gone to the Yankees at #17. Also that Weaver would have been hurt worse because a pitcher who hasn't thrown competitively in a year understandably concerened teams - same will be true of Boras' top 3 this time.

The problem with 'lots of hitting' in the minors is that statistically, MAYBE 2-3 of our current farmhands will ever be top players - all-stars - and with enormous luck, another 3-4 will be decent everyday or solid utility/relief type players. The attrition rate is horrendous.

Right now Zeringue, D'Antoni, Santos, all are struggling to adjust. Maybe they will, maybe not. A 'sure thing' bat - and Upton is as close as you can get apparently - can't be ignored. None of the top pitchers is really #1 pick good - they are behind 3 or 4 position guys this year.

I'm really surprised about you believing in the 5-tool player. I know you are not a Terrero fan and the scouts keep saying he is a 5-tool player. You also said Santos is not developing like he should and maybe the Diamondbacks should trade him.

I remember reading when the Diamondbacks drafted Santos and Corey Meyer, both were almost sure things. I still believe Santos has what it takes but I don't see him being the next A-Rod, as was mentioned in a spring training game this year.

I think if you succeed as a pitcher in college, and are one of the top-3 in the nation, you should really consider drafting him. College baseball is for hitters. You don't see many pitchers with era's below 2.00. The UofA is facing a pitcher from Missouri Friday who has an era of 1.52 with 128 strikeouts. He will be eligible for the draft next year and will most likely go in the top-5 if he continues to pitch the way he has.

I hope Upton becomes a star for the Diamondbacks but believe Arizona has more concerns at pitching. There is not a lot of pitching stars in their system. It's easier to pick hitters in the later rounds than it is pitching.

 

[Kolo]

Zona90, I've been reading about the draft and pretty much every scout and person who might know agrees that Upton is easily the best player in this draft and the one AZ should take, and I don't know see how you can be so sure we shouldn't (especially when--no offense--I highly doubt you've seen Upton play, or Hochevar or many of the other top prospects). Drafting in baseball is far more hit-and-miss than most other sports, and if one guy clearly has the best potential to be a star, I don't see how you can pass him up just because the system as a whole may lack depth in one particular area. On drafting to fill a need in the organization, ever hear of Calvin Pace? Besides, you could argue cf depth in our system is as weak as our pitching depth--based only on what I've read about them (and seen to a far lesser extent), I don't think either Terrero or Marland Williams is ever going to be a great player.

And I checked out the Draft thread you posted and the "Best Tools" link--Baseball America has Upton as, among highschoolers, the best athlete, the fastest, the best 5-tool talent, the second best arm, the best defensive player (as an outfielder), the best hitter, and the closest to the majors. When you're drafting first and have a realistic shot at a potential star, you have to take him.

And Gammons reported that Rizzo has seen 90 at-bats by Upton, and we are definitely taking him. I hope he's right.

 

[Lefty]

Zona90, I've been reading about the draft and pretty much every scout and person who might know agrees that Upton is easily the best player in this draft and the one AZ should take, and I don't know see how you can be so sure we shouldn't (especially when--no offense--I highly doubt you've seen Upton play, or Hochevar or many of the other top prospects). Drafting in baseball is far more hit-and-miss than most other sports, and if one guy clearly has the best potential to be a star, I don't see how you can pass him up just because the system as a whole may lack depth in one particular area. On drafting to fill a need in the organization, ever hear of Calvin Pace? Besides, you could argue cf depth in our system is as weak as our pitching depth--based only on what I've read about them (and seen to a far lesser extent), I don't think either Terrero or Marland Williams is ever going to be a great player.

And I checked out the Draft thread you posted and the "Best Tools" link--Baseball America has Upton as, among highschoolers, the best athlete, the fastest, the best 5-tool talent, the second best arm, the best defensive player (as an outfielder), the best hitter, and the closest to the majors. When you're drafting first and have a realistic shot at a potential star, you have to take him.

And Gammons reported that Rizzo has seen 90 at-bats by Upton, and we are definitely taking him. I hope he's right.

Have you read what I wrote? I said I thoght the Diamondbacks picking Upton was a done deal. I hope he becomes a superstar but I just don't like picking a high school player in the first round. If people are saying he is a can't miss prospect, you can't pass him up. I'm a Diamondback fan and will support who they pick because Rizzo has done a great job so far.

Have you noticed that Rizzo and the Diamondbacks have been doing very well in the past three years with the draft? They have taken a lot of college players over high school players in the top 10-15 rounds.

As for your comparison with the Cardinals drafting Pace, I don't think you can use Pace as a comparison because I'm talking about high school vs college. Also, Pace was not even considered a first or second round pick. Hochevar is a top-rated pitcher who probably would go higher but teams are afraid of Boras. I think Moorad and Boras could have a better working relationship than most clubs.

I hope we can make the comparison of Upton with Lebron James. That would not be so bad. What I do find interesting is I was listening to ESPN radio last week and they were saying Dwayne Wade was a better player than Lebron. Most callers agreed. Wade went to college and took Marquette to the Final Four. Either way, both players are All-Stars and if Upton becomes one I'll be very happy and everyone can serve me crowe with ketchup on the side.

 

[Stan C]

zona,
you make some good points, I just don't know enough ot argue with as many scouts/articles that say Upton is clearly the best choice

 

[Lefty]

zona,
you make some good points, I just don't know enough ot argue with as many scouts/articles that say Upton is clearly the best choice

You can't really with all the upside this kid has. I just prefer picking a college player because you know more of what you are getting since he has played three years or more in college. Also, college players are for the most part, more mature.

I know it's not college baseball, but when you see UofA players in the NBA, almost every time they talk about a former Cat, you hear the coaches and talent scouts say they are fundamentally sound. All the players say they contribute their success to Lute. You can't get enough learning and there are a lot of good college coaches out there that are teaching these kids to become better players.

After listening to the interview with Conor Jackson, I am more of a believer than ever about college players. I would not be surprised after the Diamondbacks take Upton, they will go heavy with college players in rounds two through 15.

 

[AZZenny]

Hey, I was just quoting BA, which I don't always agree with - and you're right - I DON'T believe in 'five tool players.' Not unless they have a huge 6th tool, baseball sense.

I would not have taken Drew, because I foresee attitude problems (not to mention the famous Drew injury-proneness) based on both his college history and the Boras thing - ooops - Oh, right - I am going to TRY to be openminded until he has a track record with us. (I read a detailed article about how Boras woos and THEN hand-selects his clients - it seemed pretty clear they form an allegience to HIM first, baseball team second - always second. A bit unnerving. Svengali.)

If there was a clear #1 Ace-type starting pitcher this year, I'd take him over Upton for sure. Unfortunately there isn't. The other thing to know is young Upton has been using a wooden bat regularly for a few years in top-level tournament competition, and scouts have been watching him for a good 5 years - I gather his bat, his arm, and his speed are consistently superb. Defense is less so, although still considered good. He is, in short, as well studied as most college kids are.

btw, drafted college and HS pitchers both have roughly a 40-45% chance of making the majors - there is less difference than position players, where college kids have more of an advantage since their bodies and speed, etc. are more set. A HS kid could get real gangly or thicken up and lose some potential. College has already weeded most of them out.

Take Upton, and then in a few years see what young pitchers are shaking out well, and trade Drew for one. (oops..damn! I wasn't going to do that!!)

 

[Lefty]

btw, drafted college and HS pitchers both have roughly a 40-45% chance of making the majors - there is less difference than position players, where college kids have more of an advantage since their bodies and speed, etc. are more set. A HS kid could get real gangly or thicken up and lose some potential. College has already weeded most of them out.[/SIZE]

That's interesting because I have never been able to find the percentages with pitchers being drafted in the first round. Could you give me a link because I would love to see what pitchers made it and which ones didn't. The one high school pitcher that comes to mind is Maddux. The college pitchers that come to mind are Prior, Clemens and Randy. I think all three were first round picks.

I got my stats about first-round college players making it more than high school players from Moneyball. I don't believe everything in Moneyball but I do agree with how Billy drafts.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Josh Beckett, Zack Grienke, Jeremy Bonderman (drafted by Beane), and C.C. Sabathia are some HS pitchers drafted in the first round off the top of my head who are pretty successful. The consenus seems to be that if you just draft a HS kid just because he has an arm, then you're generally going to get in trouble. My thought is if a guy can pitch I don't care how old or what level he's on.

But I'm pretty sure college pitchers do have statistically better odds of getting to the bigs than HS players.

 

[devilalum]

Not unless they have a huge 6th tool

 

[AZZenny]

Zona, I'll have to look for a link, give me a day or two - it was last year in a draft analysis on BA - it was a paragraph in a larger column and it surprised me - drafted college pitchers did have a slightly better outcome, but not as much as BA, or I, would have expected, and not enough to make college a definitive choice over HS. Both were between 40 and under 50 percent.

As someone here pointed out, I think, since nowadays college coaches have no apparent interest in protecting arms (one of the upper picks just recently threw 165 pitches in a game) there is also reason to be cautious about college kids, too.

6th tool is BRAINS! 7th is gorgeous smile. 8th....

 

[Diamondback Jay]

We could be passing up the next Roger Clemens. What I am trying to say is if we are looking down the road the Diamondbacks need pitching. They have a lot of hitters in their minor league system.

I'm going to echo the sediments of several others in this thread when I say I agree with you that the Diamondbacks need to look to pick up some pitching.. Hopefully they look that direction in their second, third and even fourth round picks.

Truthfully, and this is coming from a guy who's seen Upton play several times, this kid is WAY too damn good to pass up. He's at least as good as his brother BJ, with potetential to be even better.

With Drew now signed, the Diamondbacks can go one of several different directions by drafting Upton..

A). They can move Drew to 2B and go with Upton at SS (I think with some schooling in the minors, Upton's erratic arm strength and Drew's defensive woes can be worked on and this is their best option.)

B). They can move Upton or Drew to the OF and go with Drew at SS with Hairston or Kata at 2B. (With the depth and youth they have in the OF-- Terrerro, Quentin, Jackson, etc-- I'm not too crazy about this.)


C). They can begin working Drew at 1B and see how he handles it there (Again, with Tracy not exactly ancient and Jackson projecting to be better served there, I'm not fond of this idea either but it's one none the less).

Either way, passing on Upton would be a mistake. Let's hope Gammons, whose rumors are either big time hit or big time miss, is on with his report that Zona's definately going to draft him.