Suns @ Cavaliers, Monday 3-11-24

[leclerc]

Foreshadowing how dominant the big 3 can be... Still not done with the foreshadowing. Let's get to the playoffs. Knowing Suns history one of our main pieces will go down. Ceballos, Joe Johnson, CP twice... yeah, Suns fans know how to brace for disappointment and still have hope somewhere that somehow...

 

[Yuma]

Foreshadowing how dominant the big 3 can be... Still not done with the foreshadowing. Let's get to the playoffs. Knowing Suns history one of our main pieces will go down. Ceballos, Joe Johnson, CP twice... yeah, Suns fans know how to brace for disappointment and still have hope somewhere that somehow...

The only hope I have, is this team is built more for playoff mode than regular season mode. Having three clutch scorers will help in the half court. Our defense coming around will be much better when the pace slows. We have trouble with fast break teams. That's my hope. Hope springs eternal.

 

[Hoop Head]

The only hope I have, is this team is built more for playoff mode than regular season mode. Having three clutch scorers will help in the half court. Our defense coming around will be much better when the pace slows. We have trouble with fast break teams. That's my hope. Hope springs eternal.

Do we have 3 clutch scorers though? Our 4th quarter woes say we don't. If this team were the opposite, struggling through 3 quarters and turning it on in the 4th regularly then I wouldn't be concerned but the way they fall apart when games are nearing their conclusion is more troubling than any other stat out there.

 

[Cheesebeef]

The only hope I have, is this team is built more for playoff mode than regular season mode. Having three clutch scorers will help in the half court. Our defense coming around will be much better when the pace slows. We have trouble with fast break teams. That's my hope. Hope springs eternal.

our clutch scorers have been anything but this season.

 

[Covert Rain]

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[Yuma]

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Thank you @Covert Rain

 

[Covert Rain]

Thank you @Covert Rain

I think it's sometimes misleading with the eye test for Durant because of the some of the stupid turnovers and forced shots he takes when double teamed.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The only hope I have, is this team is built more for playoff mode than regular season mode. Having three clutch scorers will help in the half court. Our defense coming around will be much better when the pace slows. We have trouble with fast break teams. That's my hope. Hope springs eternal.

What makes them “clutch?” They aren’t.

 

[Yuma]

What makes them “clutch?” They aren’t.

Well KD is rated the number one clutch player in the NBA so far this season.

 

[Hoop Head]

Well KD is rated the number one clutch player in the NBA so far this season.

That's not what that graphic seemed to convey. He has the most clutch FG attempts but he isn't the best clutch shooter when looking at %.

 

[Yuma]

That's not what that graphic seemed to convey. He has the most clutch FG attempts but he isn't the best clutch shooter when looking at %.

Maybe not, but all stats taken all together he is ranked number one. The left hand column is titled Rank, and next too KD's name is the number 1.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Maybe not, but all stats taken all together he is ranked number one. The left hand column is titled Rank, and next too KD's name is the number 1.

Who cares what the stats say? Anyone who has watched the majority of the games wouldn't argue that KD has been the most clutch player this year.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

That's not what that graphic seemed to convey. He has the most clutch FG attempts but he isn't the best clutch shooter when looking at %.

Yeah that’s what I thought too.

 

[Covert Rain]

The graph above represents shot distribution as % of player shots. Durant has the highest % of shots taken which have an elevated impact on win probability. That's one clutch metric. On the other clutch metric he is #9 in terms of shots crucial to game outcome. So, he is top 10 in both clutch metrics.

 

[Phrazbit]

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This represents that Durant takes a huge volume of clutch shots... it also seems to show he misses them at a huge rate. Compared to everyone else on this chart, Durant is among the worst clutch shooters of the guys who take a ton of shots.

There is nothing reassuring about this chart.

 

[Phrazbit]

Maybe not, but all stats taken all together he is ranked number one. The left hand column is titled Rank, and next too KD's name is the number 1.

He's ranked near the top in attempts, not in success.

It's a meaningless stat.

If anything it shows how bad he's been when it matters.

The team as a whole has been horrendous in the clutch.

 

[Covert Rain]

This represents that Durant takes a huge volume of clutch shots... it also seems to show he misses them at a huge rate. Compared to everyone else on this chart, Durant is among the worst clutch shooters of the guys who take a ton of shots.

There is nothing reassuring about this chart.

I don't think volume is the focus of those charts and it does take into account historically what a person makes and misses. What that chart seems to mean is that when he is on, his shots have a higher probability on the outcome of games. It appears to calculate for every shot a player takes what is the win probability based on if that shot was a make or miss. Then they compare the two outcomes to determine how important the shots are that a player takes.

This is one of those stats I don't think you can't look at alone. However, it does mesh with what one of the commentators said which was in the last 15 games when Durant scores 25+ points they win almost 75% of the time or something like that. Not to mention everyone considers Steph Curry clutch who in the 4th quarter has 406 points on 290 attempts (1.40 PPS). Durant has 417 points on 287 attempts (1.45 PPS).

None of the stats around clutch are perfect. The definition of "clutch" seems to be varied depending on which site you go to but I get what they are trying to say.

 

[Phrazbit]

I don't think volume is the focus of those charts and it does take into account historically what a person makes and misses. What that chart seems to mean is that when he is on, his shots have a higher probability on the outcome of games. It appears to calculate for every shot a player takes what is the win probability based on if that shot was a make or miss. Then they compare the two outcomes to determine how important the shots are that a player takes.

This is one of those status that you can't look at alone. However, it does mesh with what one of the commentators said which was in the last 15 games when Durant scores 25+ points they win almost 75% of the time or something like that. I think the argument is that most of the time Durant isn't an empty stat guy. His teams tend to go how he does.

None of the stats around clutch are perfect. The definition of "clutch" seems to be varied depending on which site you go to.

So when Durant is playing really really well and making his shots we have a better chance of winning than we do in the games where he shoots poorly... that seems rather obvious.

I don't doubt that when Durant scores 25+ the Suns win more games... but the problem is that when Durant doesn't score 25 it's not because he isn't getting chances, it is because he's playing poorly.

This is basically survivorship bias, but in NBA terms.

Survivorship bias - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Yuma]

I don't think volume is the focus of those charts and it does take into account historically what a person makes and misses. What that chart seems to mean is that when he is on, his shots have a higher probability on the outcome of games. It appears to calculate for every shot a player takes what is the win probability based on if that shot was a make or miss. Then they compare the two outcomes to determine how important the shots are that a player takes.

This is one of those stats I don't think you can't look at alone. However, it does mesh with what one of the commentators said which was in the last 15 games when Durant scores 25+ points they win almost 75% of the time or something like that. Not to mention everyone considers Steph Curry clutch who in the 4th quarter has 406 points on 290 attempts (1.40 PPS). Durant has 417 points on 287 attempts (1.45 PPS).

None of the stats around clutch are perfect. The definition of "clutch" seems to be varied depending on which site you go to but I get what they are trying to say.

Also, clutch is a subjective term. I could think KD is clutch where @ASUCHRIS could say he is not.

 

[Yuma]

I recently saw a KD interview where he basically said he preferred to play the way Golden State used him, which was the other four guys pass and penetrate and either score, or give it to him as a finisher. I don't think he even wants to work one on one in ISO ball. All the years I have watched him, he seems happiest when he gets the ball with 4-5 seconds to shoot and is somewhat open to shoot. He really seems to prefer being a shooter rather than a scorer.

 

[Covert Rain]

So when Durant is playing really really well and making his shots we have a better chance of winning than we do in the games where he shoots poorly... that seems rather obvious.

I don't doubt that when Durant scores 25+ the Suns win more games... but the problem is that when Durant doesn't score 25 it's not because he isn't getting chances, it is because he's playing poorly.

This is basically survivorship bias, but in NBA terms.

Survivorship bias - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Not exactly. There are guys that put up a bunch of numbers that don't win. That's where the term "empty stats" comes from. Guys can put up big numbers that don't translate into wins. Look at what Ayton is doing as of late. That was Book early in his career. There are simply guys who put up numbers that have a higher impact on the outcome of games than others. That's also why they break out garbage time.

 

[Covert Rain]

I recently saw a KD interview where he basically said he preferred to play the way Golden State used him, which was the other four guys pass and penetrate and either score, or give it to him as a finisher. I don't think he even wants to work one on one in ISO ball. All the years I have watched him, he seems happiest when he gets the ball with 4-5 seconds to shoot and is somewhat open to shoot. He really seems to prefer being a shooter rather than a scorer.

This. He has to put up a higher volume because this offense constantly puts our guys in a position to drive with 8 seconds left on the clock. Anybody with a set of eyes can see that Book, Beal, and KD are constantly in a position with this offense to shoot at the end of the clock. The Suns are 7th in the NBA shooting in the 4-7 second range in the clock and 10th in the NBA shooting in the 0-4 second range.

That's hero ball for you.

 

[Yuma]

This. He has to put up a higher volume because this offense constantly puts our guys in a position to drive with 8 seconds left on the clock. Anybody with a set of eyes can see that Book, Beal, and KD are constantly in a position with this offense to shoot at the end of the clock. The Suns are 7th in the NBA shooting in the 4-7 second range in the clock and 10th in the NBA shooting in the 0-4 second range.

That's hero ball for you.

Same with Grayson Allen. You shoot close to 50% from three and you don't shoot it at least 10X times a game? This week JJ Reddick interviewed D Book. He brought up why we hold the ball so long before getting into our sets, or ISO moves? He has a good point in that we need to get into the offense earlier to open up shots. Plus the defense has an easy time just watching our guys hold the ball for ten seconds.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Same with Grayson Allen. You shoot close to 50% from three and you don't shoot it at least 10X times a game? This week JJ Reddick interviewed D Book. He brought up why we hold the ball so long before getting into our sets, or ISO moves? He has a good point in that we need to get into the offense earlier to open up shots. Plus the defense has an easy time just watching our guys hold the ball for ten seconds.

Welp… it’s a good thing neither the coaching staff, nor Book, have done anything to change this.

 

[Yuma]

Welp… it’s a good thing neither the coaching staff, nor Book, have done anything to change this.

I swear, they should let a group of us coach for a week. What could it hurt? Aside from all of us fighting each other during the game on the sidelines? Would make for a show!