Suns make late Love-Bledsoe offer

[AzStevenCal]

Ben Gordon did the same thing with the Bulls made a lot more money with Detroit the following year than he would have in Chicago. It is a risk, but can work out, so to call it stupid at this point of the game is short sighted.

Ben Gordon is the exception and yes, it would be incredibly stupid to take the QO. His draft spot along with his limited playing time makes his QO a paltry 3.7. If he stays healthy and if he has a strong year, signing the QO would give him a chance to basically recoup what we've already offered. If he wanted out that badly he could have just taken the offer and asked us to trade him when the opportunity came. As it is, he's risking a lot for very little.

Steve

 

[Hoop Head]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned about Bledsoe taking the QO is that Dragic will most likely be a free agent next year also. Based on last season and through their careers Dragic played better than Bledsoe last year and would surely command more money than Bledsoe. If Eric takes the QO then he can only sign with teams who have the cap space or to have the Suns facilitate a S&T which I believe the Suns will only do if they get quality in return. The longer he holds out on the Suns the less likely they will be to accommodate a Sign & Trade for him. Dragic's contract next summer will surely affect Bledsoe's offers from Phoenix definitely and I'd think most teams around the league. Surely if Dragic outplays him this next season statistically or makes an All NBA Team or All-Star game and Bledsoe does not then that all but ensures that Bledsoe won't get a bigger offer than Dragic and I believe Goran will either give Phoenix a less than max discount of sorts or allow them to match any offer he got from another team. Dragic seems to love the Suns, something you can't say for Bledsoe at all, so I doubt he leaves even though he will most likely opt out and be an unrestricted free agent. I don't see Dragic signing for less than Bledsoe if he has a better season regardless of him wanting to stay in Phoenix. So Bledsoe is gambling not just on his health but also that he outperforms Dragic IMO. The Suns offer this summer is surely based on the deal Lowry got with Toronto and I think other teams around the league look at it similarly right now also.

 

[Errntknght]

Well, kingdad, Eric is four years younger than Goran and plays considerably better defense so there is likely to be divergent opinions on who is the better player of the two, depending on how highly defense is valued. I wouldn't say that Goran outplayed him last year except for Bled missing many more games If Dragic continues to play for his national team, thats another factor in Bledsoe's favor.

I don't consider either one of them max players - Eric turns the ball over way too much and he is still shaky running offense on his own. It appears he cannot play over 30 minutes and keep his defense up to his best level. You have to consider his history of significant injuries as well. Goran's D alone prohibits from being a max player and it worsens as he wears down - which he does over the course of the season and FIBA play. He turns the ball over a bit too much - he's in the bottom third of PGs in assist to TO ratio. (Bledsoe is 6th worst on that stat among PGs that player 1000+ minutes - there were 62 of them.) One other reason they're not max players in my book is they haven't proven themselves in the playoffs yet - I'm not deeply worried about them on that stage but it is another factor I want to be sure of in a max player.

 

[PDXChris]

Not sure how your math works. He loses $8.3 million this year (and that based on a 12 mil per year offer. The Suns frontloaded the deal so it is actually more. He can also negotiate up another million or so a year.)

Next year, he can sign a max contract starting at 15 million for four years. He does not make what he loses this year until he is three quarters of the way through the next deal. Plus, if he really believes in himself, it takes him an extra year to get to the next level of free agency. So, he doesn't get his absolute max payday until he is 29 instead of 28. With his injury history, that could cost him alot--especially since he can mitigate most of that risk by negotiating it up with the Suns now.

Taking the QO is stupid. There is just no other way around it.

Again short sighted. The cap is expected to take a big jump next year. Combine that with he fact that he will get a S&T max, he will recoup most of it.

Below would be this year, but next year he will be able to get about $2 million more in the first year and then the normal % increase each year, so the deal will be worth over $90 million for five years vs. $48 million for 4 years. So, yes, you are right, my math was wrong in the first year, but $90+ million guaranteed vs. $48 million guaranteed, when all he has to do it gut it out and play through injuries for one year. I would take on that risk because worst case, he gets a similar deal to the $48 million is he missed some games. And considering who is agent is, he will have a Early Termination Clause after year two or three allowing him another max deal in the bigger bracket. This is no brainer risk.

Year Re-sign
One $14,746,000
Two $15,851,950
Three $16,957,900
Four $18,063,850
Five $19,169,800
Total $84,789,500

Year Leave
One $14,746,000
Two $15,409,570
Three $16,073,140
Four $16,736,710
Five $0
Total $62,965,420

But what do I know, its not my money or chance at nearly doubling my guaranteed money.

 

[PDXChris]

Ben Gordon is the exception and yes, it would be incredibly stupid to take the QO. His draft spot along with his limited playing time makes his QO a paltry 3.7. If he stays healthy and if he has a strong year, signing the QO would give him a chance to basically recoup what we've already offered. If he wanted out that badly he could have just taken the offer and asked us to trade him when the opportunity came. As it is, he's risking a lot for very little.

Steve

$48 million vs 90+ million guaranteed is risking very little? Man, what am doing wrong.

 

[jbeecham]

If he gets a max or near max deal next summer, how is he stupid? He makes up most of the difference in the first year.

Time for math

If he takes the Suns 4 yr/$48 offer then he roughly averages $12 mil/year.

If he takes the qualifying offer & then gets a 4yr/$60 million offer:
Year 1: $3.7 Million
Year 2: $15 Million
Year 3: $15 Million
Year 4: $15 Million (after 4 years, he's made $48.7 million, only $700k above Suns offer & takes on all the risk in year 1)
Year 5: $15 Million (would be negotiating a new contract now if he accepted the Suns offer)

There's no guarantee anyone offers him $15 Million / year even if he stays healthy & has a good season. With Isiah Thomas on the team, Bledsoe is likely to get less minutes and have worse stats than last season. Plus, there are just too many teams with quality PGs that Bledsoe wouldn't be an upgrade over. Bledsoe has youth on his side, but this looks exactly like a Shawn Marion case... the player over-values himself, gets mad that the organization won't give him the max & then goes somewhere else and ends up getting less money than the Suns offered.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Again short sighted. The cap is expected to take a big jump next year. Combine that with he fact that he will get a S&T max, he will recoup most of it.

Below would be this year, but next year he will be able to get about $2 million more in the first year and then the normal % increase each year, so the deal will be worth over $90 million for five years vs. $48 million for 4 years. So, yes, you are right, my math was wrong in the first year, but $90+ million guaranteed vs. $48 million guaranteed, when all he has to do it gut it out and play through injuries for one year. I would take on that risk because worst case, he gets a similar deal to the $48 million is he missed some games.

Year Re-sign
One $14,746,000
Two $15,851,950
Three $16,957,900
Four $18,063,850
Five $19,169,800
Total $84,789,500

Year Leave
One $14,746,000
Two $15,409,570
Three $16,073,140
Four $16,736,710
Five $0
Total $62,965,420

But what do I know, its not my money or chance at nearly doubling my guaranteed money.

You're missing something here. The big Max (5 years) is only available for a sign and keep contract. If he signs as part of a trade he can only get the lesser max deal (4 years and smaller raises I believe)

Also, I think you're off by a year on the expected Cap jump, aren't you? I was under the impression that Lebron took a 2 year deal because that was the year it was projected to take a huge leap (TV contract).

Steve

 

[Iceman]

As far I have been hearing, the Love/Cavs deal is done...

 

[AzStevenCal]

As far I have been hearing, the Love/Cavs deal is done...

It is. I don't think there was ever any substance to the report that we were again after Love. Knowing that he was unwilling to stay past this year with us took us out of the conversation months ago. I just think we were exploring the possibility of getting in on the Love deal for some of the other players involved, mainly Wiggins.

Steve

 

[SO91]

You're missing something here. The big Max (5 years) is only available for a sign and keep contract. If he signs as part of a trade he can only get the lesser max deal (4 years and smaller raises I believe)

Also, I think you're off by a year on the expected Cap jump, aren't you? I was under the impression that Lebron took a 2 year deal because that was the year it was projected to take a huge leap (TV contract).

Steve

Yes I think BB is off by a year as well. It's a huge gamble for anybody, but more so for a guy with well known history with injuries.

 

[JCSunsfan]

You're missing something here. The big Max (5 years) is only available for a sign and keep contract. If he signs as part of a trade he can only get the lesser max deal (4 years and smaller raises I believe)

Also, I think you're off by a year on the expected Cap jump, aren't you? I was under the impression that Lebron took a 2 year deal because that was the year it was projected to take a huge leap (TV contract).

Steve

"A sign-and-trade deal can be made with a free agent who has been renounced, as long as all the above criteria are met. Sign-and-trade contracts must be for at least three seasons (not including any option year) and no longer than four seasons."
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q90

 

[AzStevenCal]

"A sign-and-trade deal can be made with a free agent who has been renounced, as long as all the above criteria are met. Sign-and-trade contracts must be for at least three seasons (not including any option year) and no longer than four seasons."
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q90

Were you offering this to support what I said or did you think it conflicted with my point? Just curious. It seems to be saying the same thing I did, he can't get a 5 year deal if it's part of a sign and trade.

Steve

 

[JCSunsfan]

Again short sighted. The cap is expected to take a big jump next year. Combine that with he fact that he will get a S&T max, he will recoup most of it.

Below would be this year, but next year he will be able to get about $2 million more in the first year and then the normal % increase each year, so the deal will be worth over $90 million for five years vs. $48 million for 4 years. So, yes, you are right, my math was wrong in the first year, but $90+ million guaranteed vs. $48 million guaranteed, when all he has to do it gut it out and play through injuries for one year. I would take on that risk because worst case, he gets a similar deal to the $48 million is he missed some games. And considering who is agent is, he will have a Early Termination Clause after year two or three allowing him another max deal in the bigger bracket. This is no brainer risk.

Year Re-sign
One $14,746,000
Two $15,851,950
Three $16,957,900
Four $18,063,850
Five $19,169,800
Total $84,789,500

Year Leave
One $14,746,000
Two $15,409,570
Three $16,073,140
Four $16,736,710
Five $0
Total $62,965,420

But what do I know, its not my money or chance at nearly doubling my guaranteed money.

Yes. What the others have said. S&T's can only be for four seasons. Also, the Suns have comply for him to get a S&T max. Also, if he takes the QO I don't think a S&T is possible at all (but I am not sure of that). There would not be much point, because any team that trades for him does not get Bird rights.

The new CBA makes S&T's difficult and not nearly as advantageous as before. I don't think the Suns are going to give him a 5 year deal, because they can only have one of those on the team for the duration of the deal, which would mean that Bledsoe gets more than Goran.

Which is probably what this is all about--jealousy of Goran.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Were you offering this to support what I said or did you think it conflicted with my point? Just curious. It seems to be saying the same thing I did, he can't get a 5 year deal if it's part of a sign and trade.

Steve

It is documentation of what you said.

 

[AzStevenCal]

It is documentation of what you said.

Thanks.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yes. What the others have said. S&T's can only be for four seasons. Also, the Suns have comply for him to get a S&T max. Also, if he takes the QO I don't think a S&T is possible at all (but I am not sure of that). There would not be much point, because any team that trades for him does not get Bird rights.

The new CBA makes S&T's difficult and not nearly as advantageous as before. I don't think the Suns are going to give him a 5 year deal, because they can only have one of those on the team for the duration of the deal, which would mean that Bledsoe gets more than Goran.

Which is probably what this is all about--jealousy of Goran.

I'm not positive but I don't think this is accurate. My understanding is that you can only have that deal in place for one player coming off of a rookie contract. Dragic doesn't fit that description.

Steve

 

[devilalum]

Time for math

If he takes the Suns 4 yr/$48 offer then he roughly averages $12 mil/year.

If he takes the qualifying offer & then gets a 4yr/$60 million offer:
Year 1: $3.7 Million
Year 2: $15 Million
Year 3: $15 Million
Year 4: $15 Million (after 4 years, he's made $48.7 million, only $700k above Suns offer & takes on all the risk in year 1)
Year 5: $15 Million (would be negotiating a new contract now if he accepted the Suns offer)

There's no guarantee anyone offers him $15 Million / year even if he stays healthy & has a good season. With Isiah Thomas on the team, Bledsoe is likely to get less minutes and have worse stats than last season. Plus, there are just too many teams with quality PGs that Bledsoe wouldn't be an upgrade over. Bledsoe has youth on his side, but this looks exactly like a Shawn Marion case... the player over-values himself, gets mad that the organization won't give him the max & then goes somewhere else and ends up getting less money than the Suns offered.

Exactly. These are rough numbers but he basically gains NOTHING financially by taking the QO. Bledsoe has said next to nothing (good thing) so we have no idea what his problem is. Its gotta be about something more than just the money because even a bad agent can do this math. He's gotta have some kind of beef with the Suns, he wants to be the man, he wants to play for a specific team, he hates Phoenix, he doesn't want to play second fiddle to some Euro dude... Maybe asking for the max is just a PC way of demanding a trade.

 

[devilalum]

$48 million vs 90+ million guaranteed is risking very little? Man, what am doing wrong.

Gordon did all that under the old CBA. He's a big reason the owners made major changes in this area.

 

[sunsfan88]

If Bledsoe takes the QO, he is stupid. It is really hard to negotiate with stupid.

Not really. He takes the QO then signs with a big market team like the Lakers where he will make 5x more money through endorsements that he would have in PHX through endorsements.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Not really. He takes the QO then signs with a big market team like the Lakers where he will make 5x more money through endorsements that he would have in PHX through endorsements.

Total conjecture. No way of knowing what he would make in endorsements. That is more dependent on how good he is rather than his market. Phoenix is a big market anyway.

I wonder though, if the Suns signing IT ticked him off. Could he see that as limiting his minutes and production?

 

[KloD]

Not really. He takes the QO then signs with a big market team like the Lakers where he will make 5x more money through endorsements that he would have in PHX through endorsements.

You have to have a personality to have companies sign you to endorse their product. There are several high profile athletes who do not make much to absolute nothing in endorsements because they are not marketable. Bledsoe does not strike me as the tyoe, nor does he have a history. He was in L.A. for 3 years, did he ever get an endorsement deal? Even small one?

 

[Shaggy]

Yes I think BB is off by a year as well. It's a huge gamble for anybody, but more so for a guy with well known history with injuries.

Exactly what I am saying. Eric has a history of being injured. I doubt he stays healthy all year next year. I just feel he will have the same stats as last year if not less due to Thomas on the team now.

I don't understand why he still thinks he is worth more when no other team topped the suns offer. Your worth what someone is willing to pay you. The suns deal is a pretty darn good one and I doubt he gets anywhere near the offer next year.

 

[Hoop Head]

Yes. What the others have said. S&T's can only be for four seasons. Also, the Suns have comply for him to get a S&T max. Also, if he takes the QO I don't think a S&T is possible at all (but I am not sure of that). There would not be much point, because any team that trades for him does not get Bird rights.

The new CBA makes S&T's difficult and not nearly as advantageous as before. I don't think the Suns are going to give him a 5 year deal, because they can only have one of those on the team for the duration of the deal, which would mean that Bledsoe gets more than Goran.

Which is probably what this is all about--jealousy of Goran.

I've never heard anything like that before and couldn't find anything on the Salary Cap FAQ about it. Do you have any sort of link to back up the idea that teams can only have 1 player signed to a maximum length extension?

 

[sunsfan88]

You have to have a personality to have companies sign you to endorse their product. There are several high profile athletes who do not make much to absolute nothing in endorsements because they are not marketable. Bledsoe does not strike me as the tyoe, nor does he have a history. He was in L.A. for 3 years, did he ever get an endorsement deal? Even small one?

No he didn't probably because he was the backup who barely got any minutes not being the star PG and best or 2nd best player on a good Lakers team.

 

[Phrazbit]

No he didn't probably because he was the backup who barely got any minutes not being the star PG and best or 2nd best player on a good Lakers team.

It does not matter, no one gets "5x the endorsements" because of what city they're in. Legit star players get national endorsements no matter where they play, and the kind of money the 2nd rate NBA players get from local stuff does not stiff what they make on their NBA contact.