Suns Promise Diogu

[George O'Brien]

Once we start focusing in on the teams, we'll find that there are only a limited number of teams willing to gamble on an undersized (perceived) power forward. As usual, the hot products will be long athletic types, point guards, super athletes, and shooters.

For example, the Warriors worked out Taft and Ike, where Ike played well. But the Warriors already have Murphy and Biedrins at PF. Biedrins is 6'11" and his per 48 rebounding average was 14.6. I could see them take a center like Petro, but not another PF.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Biedrins is 6'11" and his per 48 rebounding average was 14.6. I could see them take a center like Petro, but not another PF.

Per 48 minutes on a player like Biedrins is worthless, and you know that George


Why do they insist on using per 48 anyways? Why not make it something realisitic, like per 36 (which most teams look at). And a player has to play in more than 30 games (at under 13 minutes per) to count.

 

[tobiazz]

... damn what a week I'm having (brain fart) LOL what everybody including the media calls Shawn Marion. Marion is the best ______ player in League? Like a sidekick kind of thing?

complementary

 

[George O'Brien]

Per 48 minutes on a player like Biedrins is worthless, and you know that George


Why do they insist on using per 48 anyways? Why not make it something realisitic, like per 36 (which most teams look at). And a player has to play in more than 30 games (at under 13 minutes per) to count.

That is the way NBA.COM ranks players. It is just as easy to use the per minute numbers. I use .25 a minute as a baseline rebounding average since it will usually get you into the top 40.

The issue you are bringing up is what I call "scalability". Can a player who plays little but has good per minute numbers sustain them when playing more minutes? Some do and some don't.

For example, Donyell Marshall averaged 10.7 rpg in 39.1 minutes with Toronto in 2003-04, while averaging 6.6 rpg in 25.3 minutes this season. His 2003-04 average was .2736 per minute or 13.1 per 48. In reduced minutes this season, he averaged .26 per minute or 12.5 per 48. His career rebounding is .2570 per minute or 12.4 48. His rebounding is remarkably scalable, with his 2003-04 a bit higher because he played more PF than this season.

Most "steals" come when taking a player who had pretty good per minute numbers but no playing time. J O'Neal had four years with Portland where he averaged: 2.8 rpg in 96-97, 3.4 in 97-98, 2.7 in 98-99, and 3.3 in 99-00.

His per 48 numbers were 13.1, 12.1, 15.1, and 12.9. In his first year with the Pacers, he averaged 9.9 rpg and a per 48 of 14.4.

The fact that J O'Neal's stats improved with more minutes is not that uncommon. Jimmy Jackson generally has better number when he plays more minutes. Some guys have lots of energy off the bench while other guys need to get warmed up. Of course the other thing is that guys who are playing well tend to get more minutes.

Usually the reason guys with good per minute numbers don't get more playing time is a tendency to get into foul trouble and defensive lapses. That's why it is so hard to evaluate backup players.

2004-05 Regular Season Rebounds Per 48 Minutes
Player G REB RP48
1. Reggie Evans (Seattle SuperSonics) 79 736 18.8
2. Dan Gadzuric (Milwaukee Bucks) 81 674 18.1
3. Kevin Garnett (Minnesota Timberwolves) 82 1,108 17.0
3. Tyson Chandler (Chicago Bulls) 80 775 17.0
5. Dikembe Mutombo (Houston Rockets) 80 426 16.9
6. Ben Wallace (Detroit Pistons) 74 902 16.2
7. Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs) 66 732 15.9
8. Marcus Camby (Denver Nuggets) 66 661 15.7
9. Troy Murphy (Golden State Warriors) 70 756 15.3
10. Joel Przybilla (Portland Trail Blazers) 76 588 15.2
11. Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic) 82 823 14.8
12. Emeka Okafor (Charlotte Bobcats) 73 795 14.7
13. Shaquille O'Neal (Miami Heat) 73 760 14.6
13. Samuel Dalembert (Philadelphia 76ers) 72 542 14.6
13. Eddie Griffin (Minnesota Timberwolves) 70 453 14.6
13. Nazr Mohammed (San Antonio Spurs) 77 586 14.6
17. Drew Gooden (Cleveland Cavaliers) 82 753 14.3
18. Al Jefferson (Boston Celtics) 71 312 14.2
19. Kurt Thomas (New York Knicks) 80 831 14.0
19. Shawn Marion (Phoenix Suns) 81 915 14.0
21. Alan Henderson (Dallas Mavericks) 78 348 13.9
22. Lamar Odom (Los Angeles Lakers) 64 653 13.5
23. Michael Sweetney (New York Knicks) 77 418 13.3
24. Yao Ming (Houston Rockets) 80 669 13.1
25. Udonis Haslem (Miami Heat) 80 726 13.0
25. Zaza Pachulia (Milwaukee Bucks) 74 378 13.0
27. Nick Collison (Seattle SuperSonics) 82 376 12.9
27. Chris Mihm (Los Angeles Lakers) 75 502 12.9
27. Antonio McDyess (Detroit Pistons) 77 482 12.9
27. Lorenzen Wright (Memphis Grizzlies) 80 613 12.9
31. Mehmet Okur (Utah Jazz) 82 616 12.8
32. Michael Ruffin (Washington Wizards) 79 332 12.6
32. P.J. Brown (New Orleans Hornets) 82 737 12.6
34. Chris Webber (Philadelphia 76ers) 67 612 12.4
35. Rasho Nesterovic (San Antonio Spurs) 70 459 12.3
35. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Cleveland Cavaliers) 78 672 12.3
35. Elton Brand (Los Angeles Clippers) 81 770 12.3
38. Adonal Foyle (Golden State Warriors) 78 429 12.1
38. Raef LaFrentz (Boston Celtics) 80 553 12.1
40. Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks) 78 757 12.0
40. Robert Traylor (Cleveland Cavaliers) 74 332 12.0
40. Brad Miller (Sacramento Kings) 56 521 12.0
43. Kenny Thomas (Sacramento Kings) 73 535 11.9
44. Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix Suns) 80 713 11.8
45. Shawn Bradley (Dallas Mavericks) 77 214 11.6
46. Rasheed Wallace (Detroit Pistons) 79 644 11.5
46. Joe Smith (Milwaukee Bucks) 74 541 11.5
46. Tony Battie (Orlando Magic) 81 452 11.5
49. Chris Bosh (Toronto Raptors) 81 718 11.4
50. Antoine Walker (Boston Celtics) 77 695 11.3

 

[PhxGametime]

complementary

Golly thanks, although I'll probably forget again...

 

[PhxGametime]

"2. Dan Gadzuric (Milwaukee Bucks) 81 674 18.1"

 

[cly2tw]

http://www.draftcity.com/viewprofile.php?p=81

I like Diogu now.

Diogu, Taft, Morris, Petro, Frye, even May and Simien. If we get one of them, I'd be happy.

 

[green machine]

I think this is great and all, but how would it make sense for the Suns to show that this is the guy they want, knowing that there's a good chance he'll be gone by the time they pick? My guess is it's a decoy, an early one, but one nevertheless.

 

[scotsman13]

the one problems that i have with the idea that the suns have given ike a promise is when? he hasnt even been into workout for the suns from everything i have seen and heard. there is no way that the suns would give him a promise without at least putting him through the normal tests that they do (i dont care how close or how many ASU games the scouts go to) the suns have been very successful in the draft by doing a couple things. bring in all kinds of player, testing then for mental make up as well as what they can do on the basketball court.

it sounds like ike is a good player but it also sounds like it is one of the suns draft time snow jobs.

 

[devilalum]

If you have the #21 pick and you give a top 10 guy a guarentee how does that mean anything?

"Hey Ike we'll take you if you're still there," doesn't mean much.

 

[devilalum]

The Suns and Ike need to create some kind of story about Ike having a chronic foot disease or a spastic colon to scare all the other teams away.


Tell everybody that Ike is locked into a contract with a team in Latvia and has a $5 million buyout.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

T

For example, Donyell Marshall averaged 10.7 rpg in 39.1 minutes with Toronto in 2003-04, while averaging 6.6 rpg in 25.3 minutes this season. His 2003-04 average was .2736 per minute or 13.1 per 48. In reduced minutes this season, he averaged .26 per minute or 12.5 per 48. His career rebounding is .2570 per minute or 12.4 48. His rebounding is remarkably scalable, with his 2003-04 a bit higher because he played more PF than this season.

See, I don't have a real problem with per minute stats used as a barometer with players that have experience at least 24 mpg. It just doesn't work right when you put garbage players in because the game is entirely different.

 

[F-Dog]

If you have the #21 pick and you give a top 10 guy a guarentee how does that mean anything?

"Hey Ike we'll take you if you're still there," doesn't mean much.

My thoughts exactly.