Updated: Feb. 4, 2005, 10:37 AM ET
Take the bait or wait?
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
It's now a fact of life that the greatest lifeline in any NBA draft is college underclassmen.
Since high school stud Kevin Garnett broke the college barrier in 1995 and declared for the NBA draft directly from high school, the number of college seniors in the first round has dwindled at an alarming rate.
In 1995, there were 20 seniors taken in the first round, six in the lottery. In 1998, the number dipped to 14 seniors, with five in the lottery, and the slide continued each year thereafter:
This year should be better. Four or five seniors seem to be first-round material. The other 25 or so picks will have to come from a growing pool of underclassmen, international players and high school seniors.
This college underclassmen class might be as important as ever. The high school class is the weakest it's been in years, and teams are getting increasingly wary of the influx of young international players.
That means that the bulk of this year's draft will be college underclassmen.
Who's thinking about declaring and where would they go? Insider talked to a group of NBA scouts and other league sources to get you the lowdown on where this year's underclassmen stand.
LIKELY TO DECLARE
These are underclassmen considered likely to declare for the 2005 NBA draft:
1. Chris Taft, So., Pittsburgh: Big man looked like a lock for the top three before the season began, but he's struggled this year. However, scouts still claim he's still near the top of their draft boards and believe he will definitely declare.
2. Andrew Bogut, So., Utah: Bogut desperately wanted to make the jump last year but wisely decided to wait. Last season he would've been a late first-rounder. Now he's a lock for the top 10 and could move into the top-five by draft night.
3. Deron Williams, Jr., Illinois: His stock has never been higher, and he won't miss the opportunity to make the jump. Most scouts believe he's the second-best point guard prospect in the draft behind Chris Paul and should be a lottery pick.
4. Raymond Felton, Jr., North Carolina: Felton has flirted with declaring the last two seasons, this will likely be the year he actually does it. While scouts remain split on how good of a prospect he'll be, his stock is high enough that he knows he'll go in the first half of the first round. That should be enough.
5. Antoine Wright, Jr., Texas A&M: Wright is telling folks he's in for sure. After a terrible sophomore season, he's rebounded enough to get his stock back into the mid-first round. With great workouts, he's got a shot at the lottery.
7. Nate Robinson, Jr., Washington: He was the darling of the Chicago pre-draft camp last season, but still couldn't convince scouts that he was NBA-worthy because of his size. That's changed this year. Now, many scouts believe he's good enough to warrant a possible late first-round selection. More likely, he's an early second-rounder, but neither is enough to push Robinson out the door.
8. Sean Banks, So., Memphis: He doesn't have much choice. His grades forced him off the team midseason and his off-the-court behavior has poisoned his stock. He'll try to go to draft camps and seduce teams with his game.
ON THE FENCE
These are potential first-round prospects who are considering putting their names in the draft but are still undecided:
1. Chris Paul, So., Wake Forest: He's a consensus top-five pick in the draft right now and could go as high as No. 1. So, what is he waiting for? Paul loves playing for Wake Forest and isn't sure he wants to leave just yet. If the Bobcats get the No. 1 pick, they might make him an offer he can't refuse.
2. Marvin Williams, Fr., North Carolina: Williams could have declared last year and been a late lottery pick, but he wisely chose to go to North Carolina. He's been good enough, in limited minutes, to get serious consideration for the No. 1 pick. However, the kid talks like he's coming back for another year.
3. Rudy Gay, Fr., UConn: Gay would also be a high lottery pick if he declared, but the word out of UConn right now is that he's leaning toward returning for his sophomore season.
4. Josh Boone, So., UConn: Boone's stock has risen as dramatically as anyone's in the draft. He's worked his way into the mid-to-late lottery in part because of his improved play on the offensive end of the floor and in part because there just aren't many good big men in the draft. However, he's on the Emeka Okafor three-year graduation plan at UConn and is said to be leaning toward returning for his junior year.
5. Rashad McCants, Jr., North Carolina: Talent-wise, McCants has always been a favorite of scouts. But questions about his attitude and coachability have hurt his stock in the past. He's resolved some of those questions this year, but scouts still seem a little wary. Right now it looks like he's in the second half of the first round. Given his talent, he might want to wait this out one more year.
7. John Gilchrist, Jr., Maryland: Gilchrist has a well-documented jones for playing in the NBA. He has the talent to make him a mid-first rounder. But questions about his attitude, focus and constant comparisons to Stephon Marbury have hurt his stock to the point that he might be better off returning for another season.
8. Rodney Carney, Jr., Memphis: He's improved to the point that he'll get serious first-round consideration, but here's his dilemma: Can he improve his game enough to warrant staying in school another year? The biggest knock on Carney is that he's soft. That isn't likely to change with another year in school. Look for him to declare and get picked somewhere in the second half of the first round.
9. Kennedy Winston, Jr., Alabama: He's another guy that scouts are all over the board on. He's a fantastic college player, but what is he in the pros? Winston might be a guy who declares, doesn't hire an agent to keep his college eligibility, and looks for a promise. He's an eye-of-the-beholder type player who won't be able to rely on a general consensus from scouts.
10. Daniel Gibson, Fr., Texas: Gibson has received enough buzz over the past month that there's a good likelihood that he'd be drafted in the second half of the first round if he put his name in. However, with another year of solid play, he could be a lottery pick. Chances are he'll wait.
11. Ronnie Brewer, So., Arkansas: Brewer is a tough guy to project. Some scouts believe he has the talent to be a lottery pick, others aren't convinced he's really a point guard. He could be another guy who declares, keeps his college eligibility, and then looks for a promise in the mid first round. He has some fans.
12. Randolph Morris, Fr., Kentucky: He's not ready. That's clear. But he's a real center, something this draft is almost totally devoid of. Someone will take him in the first round because of that. However, he could really improve his stock by playing another year or two at Kentucky.
13. Ike Diogu, Jr., Arizona State: Some scouts love Diogu because of his impressive production at the college level and compare him to Elton Brand. Others think he's the second coming of Malik Rose. He might be the most difficult guy in the draft to project. He'll likely declare, keep his eligibility, and see if he can convince one of his fans to guarantee him a selection in the first round.
15. Mardy Collins, Jr., Temple: Collins has drawn a lot of praise over the past month from scouts. He's got great size for the position, has true point-guard instincts and really racks up the steals. A sleeper who could really rise with great workouts.
16. Malik Hairston, Fr., Oregon: Flirted with the NBA last year. He's helped his stock this season with solid play at Oregon, but he'll need to wait another year or two if he wants to crack the top 15.
17. Shelden Williams, Jr., Duke: He's a big, powerful low-post player who grabs rebounds and blocks a high volume of shots. But teams question his size. He doesn't have a lot of buzz, which means he might be better off staying in school.
18. J.R. Giddens, So., Kansas: At the start of the season, some scouts thought Giddens had the potential to be a lottery pick. However, he's struggled this year and scouts are concerned that he hasn't developed any mid-range game. He needs to wait.
19. Charlie Villanueva, So., UConn: He's been itching to go to the NBA since he was a junior in high school. But his inconsistency has kept his stock relatively low. He needs to dominate for an entire season before declaring.
20. Dee Brown, Jr., Illinois: Brown would like to make the jump, but scouts want to see more of him at point guard. Once teammates Deron Williams and Luther Head leave this summer, he'll have the chance to run the Illini. If he does it well, he'll rise on every draft board. Right now, he's better off returning for his senior season.
21. Jordan Farmar, Fr., UCLA: He's a promising prospect who will get lots of love in another year or two. Right now, he's just too inexperienced and turnover-prone.
22. Hassan Adams, Jr., Arizona: After a stellar sophomore campaign, he's been a bit disappointing this year. His lack of size for the position and a shaky outside jumper should translate into another year at Arizona.
23. Mustafa Shakur, Jr., Arizona: A highly-touted prospect who has slipped in the eyes of most scouts. He must improve his jumper and work on running the offense in the half-court set.
24. Paul Davis, Jr., Michigan State: Another highly thought of player who has struggled this season. He should wait.
25. Sean May, Jr., North Carolina: He's a big guy who can score in the paint, but his lack of size and a forthcoming position change probably will force him to go back.
26. Bracey Wright, Jr., Indiana: He's a big time scorer, but size, and lack of strength hurt his chances of making noise in this draft. Maybe next year.
TESTING THE WATERS
Second-rounders who might use workouts and the Chicago pre-draft camp to play themselves into the first round.
1. Curtis Stinson, So., Iowa State: He's already 22 years old and knows his window is closing. Enough teams like him that he has a shot of cracking the late first round with great workouts and a good camp in Chicago.
2. Steven Smith, Jr., LaSalle: One of the best scorers in the country has struggled to get on NBA team's radar screens. A strong performance in Chicago could change that.
3. Craig Smith, Jr., Boston College: Smith has gotten a lot of attention thanks to the Eagles' unbeaten status this year. If he were a couple of inches taller, he'd be a first-round lock. As it stands, he's in the same position Lawrence Roberts and Ryan Gomes were in last season – he's a tweener.
4. Bryce Taylor, Fr., Oregon: This shooting guard has almost been as impressive as Hairston. He really needs to wait another year or two before flirting with the league, but the word is that he might test the waters.
5. Curtis Withers, Jr., Charlotte: The bruising forward gets compared to a young Ben Wallace all the time. He's has a similar toughness and tenacity. He excelled at the under-20 championships for Team USA but seems to have plateaued a bit this season. He's the type of player who can help himself in a pre-draft camp if he declares.
7. Linas Kleiza, So., Missouri: A talented forward who can play inside and out. The native of Lithuania is rumored to be a favorite of Donnie Nelson of the Mavs.
8. Anthony Roberson, Jr., Florida: Another 6-1 scoring machine who is too little to play the two in the NBA. He's wanted out since his freshman year, but has wisely stayed in school. It's doubtful he'll do anything this summer to convince teams he's a first rounder.
9. Darius Washington, Fr., Memphis: He should meet Anthony Roberson Jr. Washington's another shooting guard in a point guard's body who, for some reason, still believes he's a point guard. His open battles with Sean Banks this season haven't helped his stock. He has NBA-itus, but he's going to have to either wait or risk slipping into the second round.
10.Jose Juan Barea, Jr., Northeastern: He's a scoring machine who has shown some good point guard skills. However, he tries to do too much on Northeastern and is paying for it, averaging 4.6 turnovers a game. He could improve his stock at Chicago if he can prove that he can play under control.
11. Brandon Bass, So., LSU: Another tweener who didn't do enough to impress NBA scouts last season. Unless he grows another inch or two by the draft, it's doubtful he can make a better impression.
12. Nana (Pops) Mensah-Bonsu, Jr., George Washington: He's an unbelievable athlete. A highlight reel waiting to happen. However, he's still very raw and will need to bulk up for the pros. He has NBA potential, but he's a reach right now.
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Take the bait or wait?
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
It's now a fact of life that the greatest lifeline in any NBA draft is college underclassmen.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Taft[/font]By the time most players reach their senior seasons, their class already has been picked clean. While every year there are a handful of nongraduates who make bad decisions about declaring for the draft, for the most part, the NBA embraces college underclassmen. Since high school stud Kevin Garnett broke the college barrier in 1995 and declared for the NBA draft directly from high school, the number of college seniors in the first round has dwindled at an alarming rate.
In 1995, there were 20 seniors taken in the first round, six in the lottery. In 1998, the number dipped to 14 seniors, with five in the lottery, and the slide continued each year thereafter:
- 1999: 13 first-round seniors; only four in the lottery.
- 2000: 11 first-round seniors; only three in the lottery.
- 2001: Four first-round seniors; only one – Shane Battier – in the lottery.
- 2002: Eight first-round seniors; only one – Melvin Ely – in the lottery.
- 2003: Nine first-round seniors; only three in the lottery.
This year should be better. Four or five seniors seem to be first-round material. The other 25 or so picks will have to come from a growing pool of underclassmen, international players and high school seniors.
This college underclassmen class might be as important as ever. The high school class is the weakest it's been in years, and teams are getting increasingly wary of the influx of young international players.
That means that the bulk of this year's draft will be college underclassmen.
Who's thinking about declaring and where would they go? Insider talked to a group of NBA scouts and other league sources to get you the lowdown on where this year's underclassmen stand.
LIKELY TO DECLARE
These are underclassmen considered likely to declare for the 2005 NBA draft:
1. Chris Taft, So., Pittsburgh: Big man looked like a lock for the top three before the season began, but he's struggled this year. However, scouts still claim he's still near the top of their draft boards and believe he will definitely declare.
2. Andrew Bogut, So., Utah: Bogut desperately wanted to make the jump last year but wisely decided to wait. Last season he would've been a late first-rounder. Now he's a lock for the top 10 and could move into the top-five by draft night.
3. Deron Williams, Jr., Illinois: His stock has never been higher, and he won't miss the opportunity to make the jump. Most scouts believe he's the second-best point guard prospect in the draft behind Chris Paul and should be a lottery pick.
4. Raymond Felton, Jr., North Carolina: Felton has flirted with declaring the last two seasons, this will likely be the year he actually does it. While scouts remain split on how good of a prospect he'll be, his stock is high enough that he knows he'll go in the first half of the first round. That should be enough.
5. Antoine Wright, Jr., Texas A&M: Wright is telling folks he's in for sure. After a terrible sophomore season, he's rebounded enough to get his stock back into the mid-first round. With great workouts, he's got a shot at the lottery.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]The Huskies' Robinson (right) has the makings of a first-round pick in spite of his size.[/font]6. Francisco Garcia, Jr., Louisville: Rick Pitino already has conceded that Garcia is leaving. He flirted with the draft last year, but his stock wasn't strong enough for a first-round guarantee. He should get that this year, though scouts are all over the place about where he'll land in the first round. He could go as high as 15 or as low as 30 at this point. 7. Nate Robinson, Jr., Washington: He was the darling of the Chicago pre-draft camp last season, but still couldn't convince scouts that he was NBA-worthy because of his size. That's changed this year. Now, many scouts believe he's good enough to warrant a possible late first-round selection. More likely, he's an early second-rounder, but neither is enough to push Robinson out the door.
8. Sean Banks, So., Memphis: He doesn't have much choice. His grades forced him off the team midseason and his off-the-court behavior has poisoned his stock. He'll try to go to draft camps and seduce teams with his game.
ON THE FENCE
These are potential first-round prospects who are considering putting their names in the draft but are still undecided:
1. Chris Paul, So., Wake Forest: He's a consensus top-five pick in the draft right now and could go as high as No. 1. So, what is he waiting for? Paul loves playing for Wake Forest and isn't sure he wants to leave just yet. If the Bobcats get the No. 1 pick, they might make him an offer he can't refuse.
2. Marvin Williams, Fr., North Carolina: Williams could have declared last year and been a late lottery pick, but he wisely chose to go to North Carolina. He's been good enough, in limited minutes, to get serious consideration for the No. 1 pick. However, the kid talks like he's coming back for another year.
3. Rudy Gay, Fr., UConn: Gay would also be a high lottery pick if he declared, but the word out of UConn right now is that he's leaning toward returning for his sophomore season.
4. Josh Boone, So., UConn: Boone's stock has risen as dramatically as anyone's in the draft. He's worked his way into the mid-to-late lottery in part because of his improved play on the offensive end of the floor and in part because there just aren't many good big men in the draft. However, he's on the Emeka Okafor three-year graduation plan at UConn and is said to be leaning toward returning for his junior year.
5. Rashad McCants, Jr., North Carolina: Talent-wise, McCants has always been a favorite of scouts. But questions about his attitude and coachability have hurt his stock in the past. He's resolved some of those questions this year, but scouts still seem a little wary. Right now it looks like he's in the second half of the first round. Given his talent, he might want to wait this out one more year.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]The only thing that might hold Jack, center, back: The depth of 2005 point-guard class.[/font]6. Jarrett Jack, Jr., Georgia Tech: Jack has interest in the NBA and if he can get assurances that he's a top-20 pick, he'll likely declare. Normally, that wouldn't be a problem given his unquestionable talent, but this is a deep point guard class that might push Jack a little further down the charts than he'd like. 7. John Gilchrist, Jr., Maryland: Gilchrist has a well-documented jones for playing in the NBA. He has the talent to make him a mid-first rounder. But questions about his attitude, focus and constant comparisons to Stephon Marbury have hurt his stock to the point that he might be better off returning for another season.
8. Rodney Carney, Jr., Memphis: He's improved to the point that he'll get serious first-round consideration, but here's his dilemma: Can he improve his game enough to warrant staying in school another year? The biggest knock on Carney is that he's soft. That isn't likely to change with another year in school. Look for him to declare and get picked somewhere in the second half of the first round.
9. Kennedy Winston, Jr., Alabama: He's another guy that scouts are all over the board on. He's a fantastic college player, but what is he in the pros? Winston might be a guy who declares, doesn't hire an agent to keep his college eligibility, and looks for a promise. He's an eye-of-the-beholder type player who won't be able to rely on a general consensus from scouts.
10. Daniel Gibson, Fr., Texas: Gibson has received enough buzz over the past month that there's a good likelihood that he'd be drafted in the second half of the first round if he put his name in. However, with another year of solid play, he could be a lottery pick. Chances are he'll wait.
11. Ronnie Brewer, So., Arkansas: Brewer is a tough guy to project. Some scouts believe he has the talent to be a lottery pick, others aren't convinced he's really a point guard. He could be another guy who declares, keeps his college eligibility, and then looks for a promise in the mid first round. He has some fans.
12. Randolph Morris, Fr., Kentucky: He's not ready. That's clear. But he's a real center, something this draft is almost totally devoid of. Someone will take him in the first round because of that. However, he could really improve his stock by playing another year or two at Kentucky.
13. Ike Diogu, Jr., Arizona State: Some scouts love Diogu because of his impressive production at the college level and compare him to Elton Brand. Others think he's the second coming of Malik Rose. He might be the most difficult guy in the draft to project. He'll likely declare, keep his eligibility, and see if he can convince one of his fans to guarantee him a selection in the first round.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Declaring for the NBA early might be Morrison's best option.[/font]14. Adam Morrison, So., Gonzaga: Morrison is another of those "eye-of-the-beholder" type players. Some teams absolutely love him because of his attitude, scoring ability and basketball IQ. Others are clearly concerned that his lack of athletic ability will hurt his chances of being special in the NBA. The thing is, Morrison isn't going to improve his athleticism by staying in school. In other words, he doesn't have a lot to gain by sticking around. If he could get a promise somewhere in the 20s, he should take it and run. 15. Mardy Collins, Jr., Temple: Collins has drawn a lot of praise over the past month from scouts. He's got great size for the position, has true point-guard instincts and really racks up the steals. A sleeper who could really rise with great workouts.
16. Malik Hairston, Fr., Oregon: Flirted with the NBA last year. He's helped his stock this season with solid play at Oregon, but he'll need to wait another year or two if he wants to crack the top 15.
17. Shelden Williams, Jr., Duke: He's a big, powerful low-post player who grabs rebounds and blocks a high volume of shots. But teams question his size. He doesn't have a lot of buzz, which means he might be better off staying in school.
18. J.R. Giddens, So., Kansas: At the start of the season, some scouts thought Giddens had the potential to be a lottery pick. However, he's struggled this year and scouts are concerned that he hasn't developed any mid-range game. He needs to wait.
19. Charlie Villanueva, So., UConn: He's been itching to go to the NBA since he was a junior in high school. But his inconsistency has kept his stock relatively low. He needs to dominate for an entire season before declaring.
20. Dee Brown, Jr., Illinois: Brown would like to make the jump, but scouts want to see more of him at point guard. Once teammates Deron Williams and Luther Head leave this summer, he'll have the chance to run the Illini. If he does it well, he'll rise on every draft board. Right now, he's better off returning for his senior season.
21. Jordan Farmar, Fr., UCLA: He's a promising prospect who will get lots of love in another year or two. Right now, he's just too inexperienced and turnover-prone.
22. Hassan Adams, Jr., Arizona: After a stellar sophomore campaign, he's been a bit disappointing this year. His lack of size for the position and a shaky outside jumper should translate into another year at Arizona.
23. Mustafa Shakur, Jr., Arizona: A highly-touted prospect who has slipped in the eyes of most scouts. He must improve his jumper and work on running the offense in the half-court set.
24. Paul Davis, Jr., Michigan State: Another highly thought of player who has struggled this season. He should wait.
25. Sean May, Jr., North Carolina: He's a big guy who can score in the paint, but his lack of size and a forthcoming position change probably will force him to go back.
26. Bracey Wright, Jr., Indiana: He's a big time scorer, but size, and lack of strength hurt his chances of making noise in this draft. Maybe next year.
TESTING THE WATERS
Second-rounders who might use workouts and the Chicago pre-draft camp to play themselves into the first round.
1. Curtis Stinson, So., Iowa State: He's already 22 years old and knows his window is closing. Enough teams like him that he has a shot of cracking the late first round with great workouts and a good camp in Chicago.
2. Steven Smith, Jr., LaSalle: One of the best scorers in the country has struggled to get on NBA team's radar screens. A strong performance in Chicago could change that.
3. Craig Smith, Jr., Boston College: Smith has gotten a lot of attention thanks to the Eagles' unbeaten status this year. If he were a couple of inches taller, he'd be a first-round lock. As it stands, he's in the same position Lawrence Roberts and Ryan Gomes were in last season – he's a tweener.
4. Bryce Taylor, Fr., Oregon: This shooting guard has almost been as impressive as Hairston. He really needs to wait another year or two before flirting with the league, but the word is that he might test the waters.
5. Curtis Withers, Jr., Charlotte: The bruising forward gets compared to a young Ben Wallace all the time. He's has a similar toughness and tenacity. He excelled at the under-20 championships for Team USA but seems to have plateaued a bit this season. He's the type of player who can help himself in a pre-draft camp if he declares.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Kleiza[/font]6. Glen Davis, Fr., LSU: A wide body who has put up solid numbers as a freshman. He wants to declare, but how many teams are looking for 6-8, 300-pound freshmen these days? 7. Linas Kleiza, So., Missouri: A talented forward who can play inside and out. The native of Lithuania is rumored to be a favorite of Donnie Nelson of the Mavs.
8. Anthony Roberson, Jr., Florida: Another 6-1 scoring machine who is too little to play the two in the NBA. He's wanted out since his freshman year, but has wisely stayed in school. It's doubtful he'll do anything this summer to convince teams he's a first rounder.
9. Darius Washington, Fr., Memphis: He should meet Anthony Roberson Jr. Washington's another shooting guard in a point guard's body who, for some reason, still believes he's a point guard. His open battles with Sean Banks this season haven't helped his stock. He has NBA-itus, but he's going to have to either wait or risk slipping into the second round.
10.Jose Juan Barea, Jr., Northeastern: He's a scoring machine who has shown some good point guard skills. However, he tries to do too much on Northeastern and is paying for it, averaging 4.6 turnovers a game. He could improve his stock at Chicago if he can prove that he can play under control.
11. Brandon Bass, So., LSU: Another tweener who didn't do enough to impress NBA scouts last season. Unless he grows another inch or two by the draft, it's doubtful he can make a better impression.
12. Nana (Pops) Mensah-Bonsu, Jr., George Washington: He's an unbelievable athlete. A highlight reel waiting to happen. However, he's still very raw and will need to bulk up for the pros. He has NBA potential, but he's a reach right now.
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