The Ayton Plan

[Folster]

Marvin Bagley?

You mean the guy who’s only played played more than 48 games once in his career?

He wouldn't be the primary piece in return. If we move Ayton, we'll need a big to provide some sort of replacement from Ayton.

 

[Finito]

Please don't shoot the messenger. This is his stats compared to other starting Centers who played at least 48 games.

He is #9 in the NBA defending the 2 (At under <6 he is #13. At <10ft #8. At >15ft #4).
He is #2 at defending 3 pointers.

So coupled this with the other stats above, I would say Ayton is not a Top 5 defender. What is weird is that according to this he gets better at defending when he moves away from the basket. I would rather see these numbers in reverse (better as he gets closer to the basket not better as he moves away). That seems counterproductive for a Center.

Overall, 2 Pointers

PLAYER	POSITION	GP	DFG%
Steven Adams	C	75	54.7
Clint Capela	C	73	53.6
Jusuf Nurkic	C	56	53
Nikola Vucevic	C	73	52.2
Jonas Valanciunas	C	74	52.2
Nikola Jokic	C	74	51.3
Jakob Poeltl	C	67	50.1
Mo Bamba	C	69	50.1
Deandre Ayton	C	58	48.7
Ivica Zubac	C	76	48.6
Evan Mobley	C	69	47.3
Jarrett Allen	C	56	45.3
Rudy Gobert	C	66	44.6

Overall, 3 Pointers

PLAYER	POSITION	GP	DFG%
Jarrett Allen	C	56	30.6
Deandre Ayton	C	58	32.4
Rudy Gobert	C	66	32.7
Mo Bamba	C	69	32.7
Steven Adams	C	75	33.5
Clint Capela	C	73	34.3
Jakob Poeltl	C	67	35.1
Nikola Jokic	C	74	36.1
Nikola Vucevic	C	73	36.1
Jonas Valanciunas	C	74	36.9
Ivica Zubac	C	76	40.7
Evan Mobley	C	69	40.8
Jusuf Nurkic	C	56	41.6

<6ft

PLAYER	POSITION	GP	DFG%
Jakob Poeltl	C	67	55.4
Nikola Vucevic	C	73	63.3
Nikola Jokic	C	74	61.6
Evan Mobley	C	69	52.8
Rudy Gobert	C	66	50.7
Jarrett Allen	C	56	48.6
Jusuf Nurkic	C	56	63.9
Steven Adams	C	75	60.1
Clint Capela	C	73	60.6
Ivica Zubac	C	76	56.7
Jonas Valanciunas	C	74	64.5
Mo Bamba	C	69	58.1
Deandre Ayton	C	58	58

<10ft

PLAYER	POSITION	GP	DFG%
Nikola Vucevic	C	73	58.8
Jonas Valanciunas	C	74	58.6
Steven Adams	C	75	57.8
Nikola Jokic	C	74	57.2
Clint Capela	C	73	57.1
Jusuf Nurkic	C	56	57
Mo Bamba	C	69	54.8
Deandre Ayton	C	58	54.6
Ivica Zubac	C	76	53
Jakob Poeltl	C	67	52.5
Evan Mobley	C	69	50.1
Rudy Gobert	C	66	48.6
Jarrett Allen	C	56	47.7

>15ft

PLAYER	POSITION	GP	DFG%
Khem Birch	C	28	27.1
Jarrett Allen	C	56	33.3
Mo Bamba	C	69	34.4
Deandre Ayton	C	58	35.5
Rudy Gobert	C	66	36.7
Nikola Vucevic	C	73	36.7
Nikola Jokic	C	74	36.8
Jonas Valanciunas	C	74	37.4
Jakob Poeltl	C	67	37.9
Dewayne Dedmon	C	15	38
Clint Capela	C	73	38.8
Evan Mobley	C	69	39.3
Steven Adams	C	75	39.9
Damian Jones	C	15	40.2
DeAndre Jordan	C	20	40.9
Ivica Zubac	C	76	41.4
Andre Drummond	C	36	42
Jusuf Nurkic	C	56	42.1

So he’s #5 in defending 2 pointers and #2 in defending the 3?

Am I reading this right?

 

[Finito]

He wouldn't be the primary piece in return. If we move Ayton, we'll need a big to provide some sort of replacement from Ayton.

He’s been laughable in his career so far. He just can’t seem to put it together seems like a bad combination of health and attitude

 

[GatorAZ]

Marvin Bagley?

You mean the guy who’s only played played more than 48 games once in his career?

Would rather have Stewart.

 

[Finito]

Would rather have Stewart.

I don’t want any of those Piston guys.

 

[Folster]

He’s been laughable in his career so far. He just can’t seem to put it together seems like a bad combination of health and attitude

Piston fans are pretty high on him.

 

[Finito]

Piston fans are pretty high on him.

If you give a starving man a cracker it’s gonna taste like steak

 

[AzStevenCal]

Marvin Bagley?

You mean the guy who’s only played played more than 48 games once in his career?

Not until you posted this did I realize how badly I screwed up here. Folster said Bagley but for some reason I thought "Mobley". So let me correct myself, I love Mobley and I have no post-Kings awareness of Bagley. And I swear, that's the last time I try to do 7 things at once.

 

[Finito]

No. I summarized what it says.

I thought it was the lower your DFG% is the better it was for the defender?

You said he’s #2 at defending the 3 and I see he had the second lowest DFG% so that makes him #2 right

Now on overall 2 pointers he has the fifth lowest DFG% so that would make him number #5 right?

 

[GatorAZ]

If you give a starving man a cracker it’s gonna taste like steak

Pistons haven’t won a playoff game in 15 years. Game not series.

 

[Folster]

Pistons haven’t won a playoff game in 15 years. Game not series.

Some people are acting like we've been on the mountain top for years. It was just a couple years ago, we were the Pistons.

 

[Hoop Head]

Some people are acting like we've been on the mountain top for years. It was just a couple years ago, we were the Pistons.

Pistons won a title within the last 20 years. I'd take that 14 years of crap for that.

Also it was 14 years since they won a playoff game, 2008 they reached the Eastern Conference Finals, losing to Boston.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The argument was that he was being abused on switches in that series and the numbers suggest that just isn't true. Holding Luka to 41% pretty much means he didn't get torched.

Unless the majority of those shots were 3s, in which case 41% is pretty good. Anyone have that breakdown?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You cannot trade for Grant he’s gonna be a FA and is going to want to be paid. Your gonna be in the exact same position

He’s getting to be the most overrated player in the NBA.

Not a fan of grant

 

[Hoop Head]

Trading for Grant would have make sense at the deadline last season, to go in the frontcourt with Ayton. To replace Ayton though? That doesn't make sense.

I know they could find a Center with the MLE but I don't see how that improves the team much, if at all.

The downgrade at Center offsets the upgrade at PF.

 

[Covert Rain]

I thought it was the lower your DFG% is the better it was for the defender?

You said he’s #2 at defending the 3 and I see he had the second lowest DFG% so that makes him #2 right

Now on overall 2 pointers he has the fifth lowest DFG% so that would make him number #5 right?

Yep, my sort for some reason didn't copy. I fixed it and the summary as well.

 

[Covert Rain]

Unless the majority of those shots were 3s, in which case 41% is pretty good. Anyone have that breakdown?

It was roughly half that were 3 point attempts. Basically held him to 28% from three and his overall FG % was 43% (all shots). To put that into context, Luka shot 45% during the season so he was not that far off from his overall average which means to maintain his average he was driving more. Ayton did a much better job guarding him at three but it's the 3 which isn't a high % shot anyway. Plus, Ayton only accounted for 3% of the total time he was guarded. Still a crappy sample size.

 

[Vacard]

I thought it would be interesting to compare the Ayton to Hall of Fame centers at similar ages equalized per 36 minutes. I had to settle for age 24 for Robinson as that was his rookie year.

Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Deandre Ayton	2021-22	23	58	58	1713	9.3	14.6	0.634	0.1	0.4	0.368	9.1	14.2	0.642	2.2	3	0.746	3.1	9.3	12.5	1.8	0.8	0.8	1.9	3	21
Hakeem Olajuwon*	1985-86	23	68	68	2467	9.1	17.3	0.526	0	0		9.1	17.3	0.526	5.1	7.9	0.645	4.9	6.5	11.4	2	2	3.4	2.8	4	23.3
Patrick Ewing*	1985-86	23	50	50	1771	7.8	16.5	0.474	0	0.1	0	7.8	16.4	0.477	4.6	6.2	0.739	2.5	6.6	9.2	2.1	1.1	2.1	3.5	3.9	20.3
David Robinson*	1989-90	24	82	81	3002	8.3	15.6	0.531	0	0	0	8.3	15.6	0.532	7.4	10	0.732	3.6	8.2	11.8	2	1.7	3.8	3.1	3.1	23.9

He's certainly a negative outlier with blocks. Turnovers look like a positive, but that is a function of his role in the offense and inability to create his own shot. Same with free throw attempts, Look at the field goal percentages. The big question is can Ayton develop the ability to create his own shot and become a primary or secondary option? He will need to improve his hands and handles.

I think those guys would be averaging a lot more in this era.

 

[Finito]

Yep, my sort for some reason didn't copy. I fixed it and the summary as well.

I got it.

So I’m summary. Let me see if I do this right

Ayton is #5 defensively below the 3 point line for centers

Ayton is #2 defensively at guarding the 3 for centers

Ayton is #1 at defending guards on switches for centers

Ayton was our best defender on Giannis last year holding him to 38% while he scored at an 80% clip vs all other suns

Ayton was our best defender in the playoffs this year both series and was our best defender against Luka holding him to a -7.8 better than any other Suns player

But…but…but

Blocks and rebounds….right. Hey where’s Bam on the blocks and rebounds list? He’s all defense right. I hear that’s the deciding factor on if a guy is a good defender…media votes. Bam like Ayton is not asked to anchor the paint he’s asked to switch. We play a switch heavy defense not a drop style taking him out of the paint.

So in summary
He is the 5th best defender below the 3 point line

He’s the 2nd best at defending the 3

He’s the best at switching on guards for a center

If after seeing all that you still don’t think he’s a top 5 defensive center then honestly it’s just cause you don’t want to see it. It’s time to just man up and say “I was wrong my bad”

 

[Covert Rain]

I got it.

So I’m summary. Let me see if I do this right

Ayton is #5 defensively below the 3 point line for centers

Ayton is #2 defensively at guarding the 3 for centers

Ayton is #1 at defending guards on switches for centers

Ayton was our best defender on Giannis last year holding him to 38% while he scored at an 80% clip vs all other suns

Ayton was our best defender in the playoffs this year both series and was our best defender against Luka holding him to a -7.8 better than any other Suns player

But…but…but

Blocks and rebounds….right. Hey where’s Bam on the blocks and rebounds list? He’s all defense right. I hear that’s the deciding factor on if a guy is a good defender…media votes. Bam like Ayton is not asked to anchor the paint he’s asked to switch. We play a switch heavy defense not a drop style taking him out of the paint.

So in summary
He is the 5th best defender below the 3 point line

He’s the 2nd best at defending the 3

He’s the best at switching on guards for a center

If after seeing all that you still don’t think he’s a top 5 defensive center then honestly it’s just cause you don’t want to see it. It’s time to just man up and say “I was wrong my bad”

Sorry, I don't have any emotion over it. All season long and last season I have defended Ayton from people being overly critical. Go back and check. People here have accused me of basically being an Ayton apologist when defending him. So you don't get to write me off as someone "doesn't want to see it" because you feel it's convenient for your narrative. My history towards Ayton destroys your assertion. Many people here can back me up.

You can't call a guy who is #17 at Allowing second chance points...as a CENTER, #15 in Blocks and #10 in defensive rebounding, a guy whose inconsistency is seen by just about everyone, and a guy who ranked towards the bottom in many playoff categories with his peers this year a Top 5 defender. You are doing a ton of cherry picking to try and make a point. I am not going to do that. So, on top of the above let me remind you:

Playoffs 2022 (out of 10 Centers)
Ayton
Defensive Rating = #7 of 10
Defensive Rebounding = #8 of 10
Blocks #7 of 10
Allowing 2nd Chance Points = #6 of 10
Allowing Points in the Paint = #2 of 10

You are the only one saying "but but". Between the two of us, I am putting the ENTIRE picture out there not just what I like or don't like. Why? Because I don't think it's an insult to call him a Top 10 defender. I am just posting the facts of the entire picture regular season and playoffs. You are acting like him being a Top 10 defender is a bad thing. It's not. You can ignore facts, cherry pick and make a ridiculous assertion he is Top 5. Have at it. Ayton is not a Top 5 defender but still a very good one. If you stop being so overly defensive about Ayton you would see that it's not an insult to say he is Top 10.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think there's a hell of a variance between Ayton the defender on his good nights and Ayton the defender on his less than stellar evenings.

If you tend to judge DA by what he's shown he can do, you rate him highly. And it you just look at the numbers, you rate him as a fair defender but not elite. And if you're soured by his off nights, you can't help but be critical in your analysis of the guy.

What's worse is that the variance on offense is even greater. Given his age, I tend to value him on the higher side on both sides of the ball despite his frustrating nights. But it's no mystery why JJ might not be as high on him. I hope he is but who knows.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think there's a hell of a variance between Ayton the defender on his good nights and Ayton the defender on his less than stellar evenings.

If you tend to judge DA by what he's shown he can do, you rate him highly. And it you just look at the numbers, you rate him as a fair defender but not elite. And if you're soured by his off nights, you can't help but be critical in your analysis of the guy.

What's worse is that the variance on offense is even greater. Given his age, I tend to value him on the higher side on both sides of the ball despite his frustrating nights. But it's no mystery why JJ might not be as high on him. I hope he is but who knows.

This is so on target Steve. The inconsistency at times is head turning. We all see it. A Top 5 guy doesn't have these wild swings. A Top 5 guy is more consistent. Some people on this board think that any objective criticism means you hate the guy or think he sucks. It's not the case at all. He still has room to get better and more consistent. I just don't know if we are going to see it in a Suns uniform.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

It was roughly half that were 3 point attempts. Basically held him to 28% from three and his overall FG % was 43% (all shots). To put that into context, Luka shot 45% during the season so he was not that far off from his overall average which means to maintain his average he was driving more. Ayton did a much better job guarding him at three but it's the 3 which isn't a high % shot anyway. Plus, Ayton only accounted for 3% of the total time he was guarded. Still a crappy sample size.

So in other words he didn't get "Gobert'd" like was suggested. At least not by Luka.

 

[Big Al]

I didn't mind Frank Kaminsky as a 15th type player on the roster. He really can play but injuries got the best of him this past season.

Sometimes I wonder if he hadn't been waived, the Suns might not have collapsed. Maybe that is a reach but he is a good chemistry player.

I guess you see a different player in Kaminsky than I do and that's ok plus he may be good lockroom influence. He was a great college player no doubt but to me it didn't transfer over. I thought Kaminsky would be a star in the league.

 

[Covert Rain]

I guess you see a different player in Kaminsky than I do and that's ok plus he may be good lockroom influence. He was a great college player no doubt but to me it didn't transfer over. I thought Kaminsky would be a star in the league.

I don't know. Frank was looking really good and contributing before his injury. I think he could have added some depth.