The Ayton Plan

[Yuma]

I agree with all this but isn't there something else at play here if we sign him by matching an offer next summer?

Player unease. Ayton could ask to be traded elsewhere. He could sign a qualifying offer, play one year, and be unrestricted. He could sign an offer from the Suns that match the top offer from another team, or the Suns could offer him more to start with, too. Another team could make an offer with terms so noxious to the Suns they may not match.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Player unease. Ayton could ask to be traded elsewhere. He could sign a qualifying offer, play one year, and be unrestricted. He could sign an offer from the Suns that match the top offer from another team, or the Suns could offer him more to start with, too. Another team could make an offer with terms so noxious to the Suns they may not match.

I'm not sure but I don't believe they can do this anymore. Even if they offer as much as possible it's still less than we can offer and there's only so many games they can play with how the deal is structured.

We can still offer one more year than any other team and a little more money. If he wants out he's probably going to have to play the following season and leave as an unrestricted FA which means he plays that final year for us for 14 mil or maybe it's 16 mil. That's a lot of money to leave on the table that he can't ever get back.

IMO the only way we lose him is if he plays so poorly this season that we just want nothing more to do with him or we find a decent trade.

 

[Mainstreet]

When comparing Ayton to other players he needs to be compared to other centers or at least other big men.

Based on what I see now, it's hard to see paying Ayton more than $30 million a season and that feels high.

Here are some other big men out of the 2018 draft class: Marvin Bagley III (RFA), Jaren Jackson Jr (4/$109 million) , Mohamed Bamba (RFA) and Wendell Carter Jr ($4/50 million).

If one wants to go outside that draft one has to ask is Ayton better than Clint Capela (2/$46 million) or Nikola Vucevic (4/$100 million)?

It may be Ayton's best argument he should be paid like Bam Adebayo (5/$163 million).

Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns are the next step up.

 

[Hoop Head]

I agree with all this but isn't there something else at play here if we sign him by matching an offer next summer?

Perhaps. I just thought it was interesting how limited we'd be if we did go ahead with the 5 year max. Like I said, it removes the ability to deal him this season and next season. If we match a 4 year max then we're limited only by a few months and can not trade him to the team that offered the deal for the first season of that deal, unless it's a sign and trade.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I'm not sure but I don't believe they can do this anymore. Even if they offer as much as possible it's still less than we can offer and there's only so many games they can play with how the deal is structured.

We can still offer one more year than any other team and a little more money. If he wants out he's probably going to have to play the following season and leave as an unrestricted FA which means he plays that final year for us for 14 mil or maybe it's 16 mil. That's a lot of money to leave on the table that he can't ever get back.

IMO the only way we lose him is if he plays so poorly this season that we just want nothing more to do with him or we find a decent trade.

Yeah I think the days of the poison pill with max contracts is are a thing of the past.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

When comparing Ayton to other players he needs to be compared to other centers or at least other big men.

Based on what I see now, it's hard to see paying Ayton more than $30 million a season and that feels high.

Here are some other big men out of the 2018 draft class: Marvin Bagley III (RFA), Jaren Jackson Jr (4/$109 million) , Mohamed Bamba (RFA) and Wendell Carter Jr ($4/50 million).

If one wants to go outside that draft one has to ask is Ayton better than Clint Capela (2/$46 million) or Nikola Vucevic (4/$100 million)?

It may be Ayton's best argument he should be paid like Bam Adebayo (5/$163 million).

Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns are the next step up.

Very different skills but bam may be the best comp

 

[Yuma]

Yeah I think the days of the poison pill with max contracts is are a thing of the past.

They have been saying this on 98.7, that a deal can contain poison pill terms the Suns would not want to match. I have seen this discussed on ESPN, too.

 

[Mainstreet]

Very different skills but bam may be the best comp

When I started out I didn't concentrate on comparing these two players but after I did the math, there it was, and Bam received a max extension.

It's remarkable how close the stats are for Ayton and Adebayo after the third season.

Versus Finder | Player and Team Comparison and Head-to-Head Stats - Pro Basketball | Stathead.com

Versus Finder is a comparison tool by Stathead.com that lets you compare players and teams across basketball. If you're looking for head-to-head comparisons, the Versus Finder is your go-to tool

stathead.com

 

[GatorAZ]

There’s nothing another team can offer that’s more financially unattractive to the Suns than the deal they already wouldn’t give him. I believe it was their plan to either sign him to a 4-year max or match a 4-year max. Even if the RFA offer-sheet has a player option at the end it won’t scare the Suns off.

 

[AzStevenCal]

They have been saying this on 98.7, that a deal can contain poison pill terms the Suns would not want to match. I have seen this discussed on ESPN, too.

It used to be this way but I think the worst thing another team can do now is offer a 3 year contract then we'd have to match to keep him should he accept their offer. We'd lose more by that then anything else they can sneak into a contract.

I'm pretty sure there are strict limits how much they can front or backload a contract and whatever they give him it's still less than we could give him. The "poison pill" aspect would be that we'd just have to live with Ayton potentially coming into a new contract year two years earlier than we'd like. And with a new TV deal on the horizon that could be significant.

 

[Mainstreet]

Poison pill contracts are usually not how we think of them.

Mostly it refers to trading a player that was extended but why do that if a team likes the player?

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Poison Pill Provision

The "poison pill provision" isn't officially defined in the NBA's CBA, but we explain the concept it colloquially refers to.

www.hoopsrumors.com

The new CBA with steady contract increases in yearly pay stopped front-loading and back-loading contracts.

In restricted free agency teams can mostly annoy the Suns by using early opt-outs.

 

[Phrazbit]

If Ayton hits free agency I think it will play out like it did with Bledsoe. It will drag on and on and get toxic. Ayton won't get an offer sheet because opposing teams know we will match and have no interest in doing us the favor of getting Ayton for less than he wants from us.

 

[AzStevenCal]

If Ayton hits free agency I think it will play out like it did with Bledsoe. It will drag on and on and get toxic. Ayton won't get an offer sheet because opposing teams know we will match and have no interest in doing us the favor of getting Ayton for less than he wants from us.

I'd be very surprised if it went this way. I believe we'll sign him to a 5 year max as soon as it's available.

 

[Phrazbit]

I'd be very surprised if it went this way. I believe we'll sign him to a 5 year max as soon as it's available.

Yeah, I think that is more likely. I am saying IF he ends up hitting free agency, that is how I think it would play out.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yeah, I think that is more likely. I am saying IF he ends up hitting free agency, that is how I think it would play out.

Yeah, we've got all season to work out a deal with them so if we don't sign Ayton as soon as he's eligible it will likely mean we've burned our bridges.

 

[Hoop Head]

Chris Paul was asked about Ayton's contract extension and how he's focused on the season. Ill link the article below but here is a quote from it...

The 23-year-old big man admitted he was not happy with how negotiations went and in turn will become a restricted free agent following the 2021-22 season.

“With D.A. and his situation, we talked about it,” Paul told Yahoo Sports. “He knows what he has to do. The goal for everybody is to see everyone getting paid. His situation is what it is, but it’s going to work out for him. We hope it works out for him. The biggest thing we know we can do is go out there and win games.”

As the undisputed veteran leader of the team, Paul has seen the impact of sour negotiations and players feeling they deserve more money than a teammate or counterpart

Link...

Chris Paul on Deandre Ayton not getting extension from Suns: 'He knows what he has to do'

Paul also called the Phoenix locker room the 'best' in his career and how the Suns are looking at the 2021-22 season in an exclusive interview with Yahoo Sports.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[Suns_fan69]

It was brought up a few pages ago, but I thought it'd be interesting to compare Amare's 3rd season to Ayton's.

There's a lot of differences in their game, obviously, but they are similar in that both started late with basketball, and both entered the league at the same age.

Here is just the 3rd season for both (age 22 season): https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm...layer_id2=aytonde01&p2yrfrom=2021&p2yrto=2021

Here is the cumulative first 3 seasons for both: https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm...layer_id2=aytonde01&p2yrfrom=2019&p2yrto=2021

Note, this was #32, pre-microfracture, full beast-mode Amare.

 

[Covert Rain]

It was brought up a few pages ago, but I thought it'd be interesting to compare Amare's 3rd season to Ayton's.

There's a lot of differences in their game, obviously, but they are similar in that both started late with basketball, and both entered the league at the same age.

Here is just the 3rd season for both (age 22 season): https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm...layer_id2=aytonde01&p2yrfrom=2021&p2yrto=2021

Here is the cumulative first 3 seasons for both: https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm...layer_id2=aytonde01&p2yrfrom=2019&p2yrto=2021

Note, this was #32, pre-microfracture, full beast-mode Amare.

I think it might be better to compare him to his peers at his position and their 3rd years. Amare played a different position and was featured in the offense by year 3. Their roles were completely different.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think it might be better to compare him to his peers at his position and their 3rd years. Amare played a different position and was featured in the offense by year 3. Their roles were completely different.

Hmm, which center did amare play alongside in his third year?

 

[Covert Rain]

Hmm, which center did amare play alongside in his third year?

You are missing the point. Amare's role on the team was completely different. He was primarily there to play inside, post up and roll to the basket as a primary option on offense. Amare could be argued he played a PF/C role but Ayton plays one role and isn't even a 3rd option on the team offensively most of the time. Makes no sense to compare the two. Their trajectories offensively were completely different.

P.S. Even if you wanted to compare? Ayton is already ahead of Amare defensively and in rebounding.

 

[AzStevenCal]

You are missing the point. Amare's role on the team was completely different. He was primarily there to play inside, post up and roll to the basket as a primary option on offense. Amare could be argued he played a PF/C role but Ayton plays one role and isn't even a 3rd option on the team offensively most of the time. Makes no sense to compare the two. Their trajectories offensively were completely different.

P.S. Even if you wanted to compare? Ayton is already ahead of Amare defensively and in rebounding.

Ayton is far ahead of Amare as a defender but the reason for the huge difference in offensive roles is due to Ayton's shortcomings.

DA would be the first or second option on offense (especially with Rubio or CP3 feeding him) if he'd quickly dive to the rim (instead of wasting a little time first) or if he could establish a low post position and make himself available for the entry pass or if he could handle the ball whether it's an entry pass or on the roll and if he would finish with authority.

We wasted so many early possessions trying to get him into the game before the coach finally gave up and directed DA to focus on his defense. For whatever reason, Ayton decided to actually dive to the hoop immediately not to mention go up strongly during the playoffs - that version of Ayton, the one we didn't see before nor have we seen since, would be a much bigger part of our offense.

 

[Covert Rain]

Ayton is far ahead of Amare as a defender but the reason for the huge difference in offensive roles is due to Ayton's shortcomings.

DA would be the first or second option on offense (especially with Rubio or CP3 feeding him) if he'd quickly dive to the rim (instead of wasting a little time first) or if he could establish a low post position and make himself available for the entry pass or if he could handle the ball whether it's an entry pass or on the roll and if he would finish with authority.

We wasted so many early possessions trying to get him into the game before the coach finally gave up and directed DA to focus on his defense. For whatever reason, Ayton decided to actually dive to the hoop immediately not to mention go up strongly during the playoffs - that version of Ayton, the one we didn't see before nor have we seen since, would be a much bigger part of our offense.

I partially agree with this. It’s partly Ayton and partly the offensive design. This offense was never intended to be built around Ayton. This was always Booker’s offense and now a combo of Paul/Booker. That wasn’t the case with Amare.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I partially agree with this. It’s partly Ayton and partly the offensive design. This offense was never intended to be built around Ayton. This was always Booker’s offense and now a combo of Paul/Booker. That wasn’t the case with Amare.

Go back and read the game day threads from the past two seasons and you'll see constant frustration over the fact that we tried to make him a pivotal part of the offense early in the game and it killed us. Once we stopped making it a priority early last season it made a huge difference. We'd feed Ayton a time or two and if he responded, we'd continue but if he wasn't focused we'd go away from him.

 

[Hoop Head]

Ayton was #2 in the offense during his rookie year and his second season but we went nowhere. That showed a team couldn't be built around him as the #1, #1B, or #2 option. Chris Paul is willing to feed anyone and Ayton should be thriving but he's not and I don't see how anyone can blame Paul or our offense for that. It's not for lack of effort by the team that Ayton doesn't do more.

If you look at advanced stats, Ayton's offense is very tentative. He rarely dribbles at all before shooting. He gets the ball and shoots almost immediately or he passes. Maybe he doesn't have any go to moves but by his 4th year that falls on him, especially if he believes he's worth max money.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Ayton was #2 in the offense during his rookie year and his second season but we went nowhere. That showed a team couldn't be built around him as the #1, #1B, or #2 option. Chris Paul is willing to feed anyone and Ayton should be thriving but he's not and I don't see how anyone can blame Paul or our offense for that. It's not for lack of effort by the team that Ayton doesn't do more.

If you look at advanced stats, Ayton's offense is very tentative. He rarely dribbles at all before shooting. He gets the ball and shoots almost immediately or he passes. Maybe he doesn't have any go to moves but by his 4th year that falls on him, especially if he believes he's worth max money.

He’s added literally nothing to his offensive game since the second he stepped on the court for us. Gotten much better as a defender, but it’s not like we see a better jumper, jump hook, any kind of post-up game and absolutely zero ability to put the ball on the floor. Or even attempts at most of the above.

In his fourth year. As a #1 pick.