The Ayton Plan

[Finito]

Yeah and for many of us we couldn't escape the Eric Swann, Andre Wadsworth and Penny Hardaway memories.

Arizona sports

Ugh

 

[Covert Rain]

Ayton's extension has zero bearing on the cap or luxury tax this season.

I meant for next season. Sorry, what would have been the impact he he signed his new extension for next season verses his current contract? Any difference?

Ayton is not a sure thing like Amare or Booker were. I don't see the fault in not believing Ayton is worth the 5 year max. You can twist that however you want but even here there have been plenty of questions of whether he's worth that much. James Jones was clear that the team was open to a 3-4 year max but Ayton's people weren't receptive to any less than the full 5 year max so there was no real negotiations to be had.

What is your idea of a sure thing at the Center position in comparison to his peers right now?

 

[Hoop Head]

What is your idea of a sure thing at the Center position in comparison to his peers right now?

A sure thing for max money is someone like Jokic, Embiid, or Anthony Davis. Someone who can be the teams #1 or #2 player throughout the duration of their deal. Ayton tops out as a #3, IMO. That's worth the max on a contender but you need to be sure he's the right #3 if you don't believe he can grow into a #1 or #2 and I don't think Ayton can. He's too inconsistent to be relied on to be more than he is.

 

[AzStevenCal]

A sure thing for max money is someone like Jokic, Embiid, or Anthony Davis. Someone who can be the teams #1 or #2 player throughout the duration of their deal. Ayton tops out as a #3, IMO. That's worth the max on a contender but you need to be sure he's the right #3 if you don't believe he can grow into a #1 or #2 and I don't think Ayton can. He's too inconsistent to be relied on to be more than he is.

There will be 40 some players making 30mil or more next season. Ayton isn't at the level of a Jokic, Embiid or Anthony but when you consider availability he's not too far removed from two of those guys. And you're setting the bar pretty high considering you're putting him up against MVP contenders.

DA is inconsistent but that's mostly on offense. On defense he ranges from pretty good to very good and on offense he ranges from mediocre to excellent. No player is great every night and it's frustrating to watch DA frequently perform well below his capabilities but even his off nights approach max territory IMO.

I think what many people are ignoring is that things have changed. It used to be max contracts were for the elite, now, thanks to the Super Max, the bar for max is much lower. And that's without considering that DA is 23 and his best should still be a few years away. As long as we're talking about the 25% max, he's a "sure thing" IMO.

 

[Larry Schweikart]

True, but there is nothing in common between this team and those teams. Not one owner, coach, or front office person. The culture is completely new. The only thing the same is a few fans--

And Al McCoy.

Well, some would argue Sarver's spending limits are the same as Colangelo's.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

There will be 40 some players making 30mil or more next season. Ayton isn't at the level of a Jokic, Embiid or Anthony but when you consider availability he's not too far removed from two of those guys. And you're setting the bar pretty high considering you're putting him up against MVP contenders.

DA is inconsistent but that's mostly on offense. On defense he ranges from pretty good to very good and on offense he ranges from mediocre to excellent. No player is great every night and it's frustrating to watch DA frequently perform well below his capabilities but even his off nights approach max territory IMO.

I think what many people are ignoring is that things have changed. It used to be max contracts were for the elite, now, thanks to the Super Max, the bar for max is much lower. And that's without considering that DA is 23 and his best should still be a few years away. As long as we're talking about the 25% max, he's a "sure thing" IMO.

Exactly. The idea that you pay max money to only 3-4 guys in the league, or that only a handful of guys are worthy of a max is woefully outdated.

Further, I love the mention of Davis/Jokic, guys that Ayton effectively neutralized and beat in the playoffs. There are about 10 guys in the league that are no doubt max contracts, but you can poke holes in many of the players after that.

I think we can all agree that the floor on Ayton is extremely high - if you sign him to max deal, the odds of him being a complete bust are very low. Disappointing? Possibly. But a total bust? Very unlikely.

 

[Mainstreet]

Well, some would argue Sarver's spending limits are the same as Colangelo's.

Near the end of his ownership I think Colangelo would have bought a championship for the Suns if he could, much like he did for the Diamondbacks.

 

[Covert Rain]

A sure thing for max money is someone like Jokic, Embiid, or Anthony Davis. Someone who can be the teams #1 or #2 player throughout the duration of their deal. Ayton tops out as a #3, IMO. That's worth the max on a contender but you need to be sure he's the right #3 if you don't believe he can grow into a #1 or #2 and I don't think Ayton can. He's too inconsistent to be relied on to be more than he is.

I don't think that is a valid criteria for Max. That is not what the market dictates as max. I think you have to look at all the players getting max contracts and where the player stacks up against his peers overall at his position.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I don't think that is a valid criteria for Max. That is not what the market dictates as max. I think you have to look at all the players getting max contracts and where the player stacks up against his peers overall at his position.

I think that’s faulty reasoning. It’s not learning from past mistakes. A good decision maker doesn’t include the mistakes others made as a benchmark. That’s like saying hey a bunch of people I think are smart jumped off a bridge I guess I have to do so also. The league is full of bad max decisions. The best teams seem to avoid them.

 

[Muggz]

He's worth it and he WILL get it.
Like others have said its Par for the course now days.
He will get it here or elsewhere.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think that’s faulty reasoning. It’s not learning from past mistakes. A good decision maker doesn’t include the mistakes others made as a benchmark. That’s like saying hey a bunch of people I think are smart jumped off a bridge I guess I have to do so also. The league is full of bad max decisions. The best teams seem to avoid them.

I am actually not reasoning it at all. That's how the market works today. I agree the league is full of bad max decisions but that fact doesn't change how the market exists and works today. Collectively team's actions create the market and the conditions in which the NBA operates.

 

[Hoop Head]

There will be 40 some players making 30mil or more next season. Ayton isn't at the level of a Jokic, Embiid or Anthony but when you consider availability he's not too far removed from two of those guys. And you're setting the bar pretty high considering you're putting him up against MVP contenders.

DA is inconsistent but that's mostly on offense. On defense he ranges from pretty good to very good and on offense he ranges from mediocre to excellent. No player is great every night and it's frustrating to watch DA frequently perform well below his capabilities but even his off nights approach max territory IMO.

I think what many people are ignoring is that things have changed. It used to be max contracts were for the elite, now, thanks to the Super Max, the bar for max is much lower. And that's without considering that DA is 23 and his best should still be a few years away. As long as we're talking about the 25% max, he's a "sure thing" IMO.

What I was referring to is the claim Ayton was/is worth the full on Max as far as far as max money and years, what gets labeled as the designated player rookie max. He's not that. It takes what I described to be that and Ayton's not there. Max money for 3-4 years? Ok, but I wouldn't be particularly excited about that. I don't think we would regret it because it's short enough it shouldn't hinder the team's options long term.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

What I was referring to is the claim Ayton was/is worth the full on Max as far as far as max money and years, what gets labeled as the designated player rookie max. He's not that. It takes what I described to be that and Ayton's not there. Max money for 3-4 years? Ok, but I wouldn't be particularly excited about that. I don't think we would regret it because it's short enough it shouldn't hinder the team's options long term.

Again, being ok with 4 years and drawing an absolute end of negotiations red line at 5 years is very strange.

 

[Covert Rain]

What I was referring to is the claim Ayton was/is worth the full on Max as far as far as max money and years, what gets labeled as the designated player rookie max. He's not that. It takes what I described to be that and Ayton's not there. Max money for 3-4 years? Ok, but I wouldn't be particularly excited about that. I don't think we would regret it because it's short enough it shouldn't hinder the team's options long term.

At the end of the day what sets his worth isn't what we all think. It's what the teams across the NBA think. If there are teams willing to pay him that's what sets the market. We can argue all day long what we think in relation to his performance, the existing contracts out there etc. In this specific scenario teams didn't have an opportunity to bid because he is under contract. Based on reactions across the league it appears multiple teams would have done it. They all think the Suns were dumb. So when I hear people say "Ayton isn't worth the max" that is incredibly subjective. I won't argue against someone who says his contribution/output don't justify in their minds a max contract. That's actually fair. However, if Ayton ever hits the open market? He gets max offers from multiple teams. If that is true he is a max player right now. The Suns just have to decide if they want to be in the market or out.

 

[Chaplin]

Again, being ok with 4 years and drawing an absolute end of negotiations red line at 5 years is very strange.

By definition, negotiations never even happened. Let alone to a point where they could actually "end".

 

[ASUCHRIS]

By definition, negotiations never even happened. Let alone to a point where they could actually "end".

Ayton said he wouldn't take anything less than a 5 year max. The Suns wouldn't do it. That's literally a negotiation. Negotiations ended as soon as the window closed, so yes, they did end.

The Suns decided it was worth the risk to not give Ayton what he wants. We'll see if they're right.

 

[Chaplin]

Ayton said he wouldn't take anything less than a 5 year max. The Suns wouldn't do it. That's literally a negotiation. Negotiations ended as soon as the window closed, so yes, they did end.

The Suns decided it was worth the risk to not give Ayton what he wants. We'll see if they're right.

You've got that turned around. Ayton's team said they won't settle for anything less than the 5 year max. JJ wanted to sit down and negotiate, Ayton's team said no and that was that. Call that negotiation if you want, but they never sat down to discuss anything.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

You've got that turned around. Ayton's team said they won't settle for anything less than the 5 year max. JJ wanted to sit down and negotiate, Ayton's team said no and that was that. Call that negotiation if you want, but they never sat down to discuss anything.

An expectation was set, and an expectation wasn't met. That happens during a negotiation. Also, what do you mean they never sat down to discuss anything? Do you think Sarver and Ayton are brunch buddies?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I am actually not reasoning it at all. That's how the market works today. I agree the league is full of bad max decisions but that fact doesn't change how the market exists and works today. Collectively team's actions create the market and the conditions in which the NBA operates.

No man, that’s now how good executives think. Good executives make a determination independent of bad decisions made by other executives. Good teams don’t look at bad teams and say “well they gave a midrange/questionable player the max, guess we have to also.”

 

[JCSunsfan]

No man, that’s now how good executives think. Good executives make a determination independent of bad decisions made by other executives. Good teams don’t look at bad teams and say “well they gave a midrange/questionable player the max, guess we have to also.”

Yes. Common sense.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

At the end of the day what sets his worth isn't what we all think. It's what the teams across the NBA think. If there are teams willing to pay him that's what sets the market. We can argue all day long what we think in relation to his performance, the existing contracts out there etc. In this specific scenario teams didn't have an opportunity to bid because he is under contract. Based on reactions across the league it appears multiple teams would have done it. They all think the Suns were dumb. So when I hear people say "Ayton isn't worth the max" that is incredibly subjective. I won't argue against someone who says his contribution/output don't justify in their minds a max contract. That's actually fair. However, if Ayton ever hits the open market? He gets max offers from multiple teams. If that is true he is a max player right now. The Suns just have to decide if they want to be in the market or out.

Uh the talking heads have said that, have we heard a single other GM, coach or owner say that? If so, I think it’s potentially tampering.

Also this argument is different than your earlier one that other teams handing out dumb contracts means the suns have to gamble on doing so. Here you’re right. If even one team is willing to offer the max that sets the market competition. And, as you’ve said, no one could pitch Ayton yet, so we don’t know if they would’ve set that market or not.

 

[Chaplin]

An expectation was set, and an expectation wasn't met. That happens during a negotiation. Also, what do you mean they never sat down to discuss anything? Do you think Sarver and Ayton are brunch buddies?

What are you talking about? Brunch buddies? The Suns (JJ) sets a time and place to sit down and discuss his extension. Ayton's agent says, "ok, but we are 5 years or nothiing." JJ counters with, "Are you sure? Let's at least sit down and talk about it." Agent says, "Ok, sure, but it's 5 years or nothing." JJ throws up his hands and says, "then what's the point? We're not going to give you the 5 years at this point, so ****** off." (b u g g e r is a banned word)

That ruse meeting between Sarver and Ayton was likely a nothing burger. An attempt by Ayton's agent to tell Ayton to convince Sarver to pay for the 5 years and vice versa. Which meant absolutely nothing because JJ is the one running the show, no matter how much everybody thinks Sarver is sabotaging it.

 

[Covert Rain]

No man, that’s now how good executives think. Good executives make a determination independent of bad decisions made by other executives. Good teams don’t look at bad teams and say “well they gave a midrange/questionable player the max, guess we have to also.”

If that was reality you wouldn't see overpaid guys in any sports league. It simply doesn't work out that way. Many teams and many times right here in Arizona we have even overpaid to stay in the market. In principle I think that's how it works. There are GM's all over every sports league that likely wouldn't have made certain moves if the market didn't force them to overpay.

 

[Covert Rain]

Uh the talking heads have said that, have we heard a single other GM, coach or owner say that? If so, I think it’s potentially tampering.

Also this argument is different than your earlier one that other teams handing out dumb contracts means the suns have to gamble on doing so. Here you’re right. If even one team is willing to offer the max that sets the market competition. And, as you’ve said, no one could pitch Ayton yet, so we don’t know if they would’ve set that market or not.

I didn't say the Suns had to. I said the Suns have to decide if they want to stay in the market.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

And, as you’ve said, no one could pitch Ayton yet, so we don’t know if they would’ve set that market or not.

Lol, you're kidding here, right? Surely you're not intimating that it's unknown what kind of offer that Ayton would get on the open market.