The Cardinals Won't Make the Playoffs Despite Carson's Return & 2nd Best Coach

[Arizona's Finest]

Troll. Perfect.

 

[MadCardDisease]

This isn't a stat-driven argument. With Drew Stanton, the Cards were three scores worse than Seattle. The bottom line answer that I want is does Carson Palmer and all the precipitating results move the needle 16 points? I don't think that's the case. Russell Wilson had to self-destruct against a defense featuring both Karlos Dansby and Daryl Washington for us to beat him in Seattle two years ago.

Ceteris paribus, the question you have to answer for yourself is how big a difference do you think that Carson Palmer now really makes against the top teams in the NFL? I think it makes some difference, but not a big enough difference to win the division and get a first-round bye.

So much changes in the NFL year to year that trying to make a comparison between the team 2 seasons ago and the current team is not even feasible.

Not only has the Cardinals roster and coaching staff changed, but so has the Seahawks and every other team in the league. I just don't see how you can compare this season with two seasons ago or even last season. It's almost laughable to even try.

Carson Palmer is just one piece of the puzzle. Our OL has chaged... our receiving corp has changed... our RBs have changed... Our TEs are different... and that's just on the offense.

Who knows if the changes on offense will make us better??? Who knows what will happen with our defense???

All I know is that the Team is better with Palmer at QB. The real question isn't "is Carson worth 16 points"... the real question is "How will the 2015 Cardinals match up with the 2015 Seahawks."

 

[Cardiac]

I think what others are saying, is that yes, Carson Palmer could easily be the difference in 16 points. And that doesn't have be offensive points, Palmer would likely have moved the ball more and even if you don't score points, the Seattle offense gets worse field position and has less time of possession.

So yes, he could've been worth 16 points.




Self destruct, or didn't make plays? I think that's essentially how we beat Seattle, play solid contain on Wilson and force him to only beat you with his arm. That's not self destructing, that's failing to make a play.

Against the Packers, Russell Wilson self destructed.



The difference between Palmer and Stanton, is that Palmer makes more of the ordinary plays that Stanton doesn't make. Football isn't just about throwing 72 yard laser touchdowns, it's about being able to complete that pass 7 yards down the field consistently. Stanton struggles with going through his progressions and struggles to have consistent technique. Palmer doesn't struggle with the fundamentals.

Good stuff Krang, fully agree.

The stats (giving each QB full credit for complete games, and 2/3 or 1/3 credit for games where they played roughly that proportion) say the following:

With Palmer, the Cardinals scored 25.5 PPG and allowed 17.0 PPG.
(18, 30, 24, 24, 28, 2/3*31)
With Stanton, they scored 17.2 PPG and allowed 17.2 PPG.
(25, 23, 2/3*20, 1/3*31, 14, 3, 18, 17, 2/3*12)
With Lindley, they scored 12.9 PPG and allowed 25.2 PPG.
(1/3*12, 6, 17, 16)

Of course you could parse these numbers further by snap count, discounting defensive scores, factoring in strength of opponent, etc. And of course these are small samples for all three QBs... but this is a reasonable approximation of how the team did with each QB.

There's no telling what would've happened at Seattle with Palmer vs. Stanton, or vs. Seattle with Palmer vs. Lindley, but a win in one of the games seems plausible. Wins in the games at Atlanta and San Francisco are more plausible. I believe one win vs. Seattle or a total of two wins vs. any opponents would've given the Cardinals home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

On another note, if the Cardinals had scored Palmer's 8.5 PPG more than their opponents all season long, they would've had a point differential of +136, not +11. That certainly would've skewed the Pythagorean win expectation a bit.

...dave

I was hoping you would post on this topic, you are a mathmagician in your own right. I like your thought process and agree with you stats.

K9, once again, why do you even watch the game, let alone this team, if all you want to do is tear it down? Or do you just relish your throne as the King Troll of ASFN?

K9 is not a troll. He brings a lot of interesting stats and information to this board. Just because he isn't all sunshine, rainbows and unicorns all the time doesn't make him a hater. He is a master debater and lives to take the contrary side.

IMO without the K9's and Cheesebeef's etc. this site would just be a circle jerk with everyone saying how wonderful the Cards are and ignoring real issues with the team.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

We lost by 16 points in Seattle. Is Carson Palmer worth 16 points more than Drew Stanton in Seattle?

We lost to Seattle by 29 points at home. Is Carson Palmer worth 29 points more than Ryan Lindley against Seattle?

Actually yes. If you look at 2013, Carson Palmer played in both games and we went 1-1 with a combined point differential of -5.

 

[Carolinacacti]

So much changes in the NFL year to year that trying to make a comparison between the team 2 seasons ago and the current team is not even feasible.

Not only has the Cardinals roster and coaching staff changed, but so has the Seahawks and every other team in the league. I just don't see how you can compare this season with two seasons ago or even last season. It's almost laughable to even try.

Carson Palmer is just one piece of the puzzle. Our OL has chaged... our receiving corp has changed... our RBs have changed... Our TEs are different... and that's just on the offense.

Who knows if the changes on offense will make us better??? Who knows what will happen with our defense???

All I know is that the Team is better with Palmer at QB. The real question isn't "is Carson worth 16 points"... the real question is "How will the 2015 Cardinals match up with the 2015 Seahawks."

+1

 

[82CardsGrad]

Actually yes. If you look at 2013, Carson Palmer played in both games and we went 1-1 with a combined point differential of -5.

Agreed... With Palmer at QB, Wilson is on the field much less than when Stanton or Lindley or Thomas are at QB... [emoji106]

 

[frankeegee1]

Ah, these cards are soooo wonderful. There's nothing wrong with this team, no issues that I can see.:-D

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

[Cheesebeef]

IMO without the K9's and Cheesebeef's etc. this site would just be a circle jerk with everyone saying how wonderful the Cards are and ignoring real issues with the team.[/COLOR]

hey! I'm like blue skies and sunshine compared to the dark side I used to dwell in!

 

[Shaggy]

hey! I'm like blue skies and sunshine compared to the dark side I used to dwell in!

Ha ha, so true. You have become more Skywalker then Darth Vader.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

K9 is not a troll. He brings a lot of interesting stats and information to this board. Just because he isn't all sunshine, rainbows and unicorns all the time doesn't make him a hater. He is a master debater and lives to take the contrary side.

IMO without the K9's and Cheesebeef's etc. this site would just be a circle jerk with everyone saying how wonderful the Cards are and ignoring real issues with the team.[/QUOTE]

I unequivically disagree with this. Listen I am all for different personalities and everyone doing them. I am no way calling for anyone to stop posting.

Cheese, Bucky, Ouchie, the late great Duckjake were ALL battered Cardinals fans who are dying for the team to be successful, but so beat up through the wars that their perspective is slanted to Murphys Law. Totally totally understandable. As a fan since 1996 myself I get that totally. And even then with recent success youll see the kool aid start to steep into their blood before correcting themselves as a defense mechanism. And yes I give them credit for seeing things as they are at times and not giving in to the wanton optimism that others here do. Including me. I am all for that type of "Darkside/Koolaid" banter.

K9? None of the above identifies him in my humble opinion. Nothing against the guy (do you!) but k9 is the definition of a troll. Stirring the pot, taking different sides of the argument just because, celebrating futility over competence. I actually think this past 2 years has been harder on him then anyone. Hes losing more and more juice to sway others.

I also am not positive he is a fan of the team. I think he fancies himself a unbias Bill Barnwell type and carries himself in a way that he is intellectually superior to "fans" with their "bias". I also think when he says something positive (rarely) hes doing it just so he can throw people of his scent and manage perception. Again thats my opinion. Thats okay too. We have migrating osprey, and mojorisen, and go hard and thats cool too.

You just see those guys coming and its not a Trojan Horse. So while everyone has the right to their opinion and how they want to approach following the team, there is also going to be a faction that call him out on his BS. And neither side is wrong. It just is.

So many get into "bully" mode and want to protect long time posters. Thats not the way the world works. In any community of people with a shared interest if someone is talking a bunch of nonsense they are going to get called to the mat.

Its cause and effect. If he doesnt like it, be more moderate in your opinion!

But thats the thing. He doesnt care what others here think. He gets off on it.

So its a win/win!

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Damn looks like I shut this thread down lol

Sorry about that lets get back to DVOA and Win theorem!

 

[Russ Smith]

The stats (giving each QB full credit for complete games, and 2/3 or 1/3 credit for games where they played roughly that proportion) say the following:

With Palmer, the Cardinals scored 25.5 PPG and allowed 17.0 PPG.
(18, 30, 24, 24, 28, 2/3*31)
With Stanton, they scored 17.2 PPG and allowed 17.2 PPG.
(25, 23, 2/3*20, 1/3*31, 14, 3, 18, 17, 2/3*12)
With Lindley, they scored 12.9 PPG and allowed 25.2 PPG.
(1/3*12, 6, 17, 16)

Of course you could parse these numbers further by snap count, discounting defensive scores, factoring in strength of opponent, etc. And of course these are small samples for all three QBs... but this is a reasonable approximation of how the team did with each QB.

There's no telling what would've happened at Seattle with Palmer vs. Stanton, or vs. Seattle with Palmer vs. Lindley, but a win in one of the games seems plausible. Wins in the games at Atlanta and San Francisco are more plausible. I believe one win vs. Seattle or a total of two wins vs. any opponents would've given the Cardinals home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

On another note, if the Cardinals had scored Palmer's 8.5 PPG more than their opponents all season long, they would've had a point differential of +136, not +11. That certainly would've skewed the Pythagorean win expectation a bit.

...dave

:iwin:

Very well said. It's impossible to know with small sample sizes but the reality is the Cards were much better with Palmer than Stanton and significantly much better with Palmer over Lindley.

The defensive numbers with Lindley are probably due to turnovers and field position. If you go 3 and out over and over the other team gets the ball in scoring position more often and they score more. If you turn it over more, they score more.

K9 is correct that Palmer was playing above his career norm, but that doesn't mean he was going to revert to it either, he might be one of those guys like John Elway who late in his career got into an offense he really fit and became a better player as a result.

We were a tale of 3 cities last season, we were an elite team with Palmer, a pretty good team with Stanton, and a bad team with Lindley.

 

[HeavyB3]

K9 is not a troll. He brings a lot of interesting stats and information to this board. Just because he isn't all sunshine, rainbows and unicorns all the time doesn't make him a hater. He is a master debater and lives to take the contrary side.

IMO without the K9's and Cheesebeef's etc. this site would just be a circle jerk with everyone saying how wonderful the Cards are and ignoring real issues with the team.

I unequivically disagree with this. Listen I am all for different personalities and everyone doing them. I am no way calling for anyone to stop posting.

Cheese, Bucky, Ouchie, the late great Duckjake were ALL battered Cardinals fans who are dying for the team to be successful, but so beat up through the wars that their perspective is slanted to Murphys Law. Totally totally understandable. As a fan since 1996 myself I get that totally. And even then with recent success youll see the kool aid start to steep into their blood before correcting themselves as a defense mechanism. And yes I give them credit for seeing things as they are at times and not giving in to the wanton optimism that others here do. Including me. I am all for that type of "Darkside/Koolaid" banter.

K9? None of the above identifies him in my humble opinion. Nothing against the guy (do you!) but k9 is the definition of a troll. Stirring the pot, taking different sides of the argument just because, celebrating futility over competence. I actually think this past 2 years has been harder on him then anyone. Hes losing more and more juice to sway others.

I also am not positive he is a fan of the team. I think he fancies himself a unbias Bill Barnwell type and carries himself in a way that he is intellectually superior to "fans" with their "bias". I also think when he says something positive (rarely) hes doing it just so he can throw people of his scent and manage perception. Again thats my opinion. Thats okay too. We have migrating osprey, and mojorisen, and go hard and thats cool too.

You just see those guys coming and its not a Trojan Horse. So while everyone has the right to their opinion and how they want to approach following the team, there is also going to be a faction that call him out on his BS. And neither side is wrong. It just is.

So many get into "bully" mode and want to protect long time posters. Thats not the way the world works. In any community of people with a shared interest if someone is talking a bunch of nonsense they are going to get called to the mat.

Its cause and effect. If he doesnt like it, be more moderate in your opinion!

But thats the thing. He doesnt care what others here think. He gets off on it.

So its a win/win!

He probably is a troll, because a troll would be proud of putting who has him blocked on twitter as his user name message.

That being said, I love reading his stuff because he does try to rip us back to reality.

 

[Krangodnzr]

K9 is no troll. Painfully objective to a fault. Will catch any BS in your argument. Is too swayed by statistics some times. But not a troll.

I scroll through threads just to read his take.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

K9 is no troll. Painfully objective to a fault. Will catch any BS in your argument. Is too swayed by statistics some times. But not a troll.

I scroll through threads just to read his take.

I disagree. But made that point. I dont think looking for the bad and trying to force feed everyone your version of "reality" is objective in any sense of the word.

Saying that I do like to read his stuff. At least there is logic to it. I may think its unsound but thats fine, we all need a foil. To someone elses point earlier it makes things more interesting.

:GroupHug:

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Please discuss the topic not the poster. While I don't always agree with K9, his passion as a Cardinals fan is clear.

 

[cardncubfan]

K9 is no troll. Painfully objective to a fault. Will catch any BS in your argument. Is too swayed by statistics some times. But not a troll.

I scroll through threads just to read his take.

Please discuss the topic not the poster. While I don't always agree with K9, his passion as a Cardinals fan is clear.

+1

 

[Cardiac]

hey! I'm like blue skies and sunshine compared to the dark side I used to dwell in!

Yes you are and that's because the Cards have turned the corner, they are no longer Bow Tie Dollar Bill's team, they are Michael's team. Which means a real professional NFL team. So yes the skies are blue and it is very sunny.

What I'm trying to say is you called it as you saw it and you were right a vast majority of the time. When we sucked you said we sucked and you were right.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Bump.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

See if this works.

Have you followed this up yet?

 

[Bert]

You must be registered for see images

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I have the same sort of derision for DVOA that I have for it's other made up partner QBR

It awards or deducts points based on achieving a set result. This result has nothing to do with what the coach or the formation is trying to do at the time, it just looks at how many yards did a play get.

It then adjusts the results of the made up goal by how the defense responds on average to that made up situation.

Here are the main flaws with it:

#1. It doesn't take into account the coaches philosophy.

As mentioned before, it doesn't take into account what the coach is actually trying to accomplish. An easy example of this is that a coaches philosophy may be heavily concerned with time of possession. They run the ball, even when the yardage isn't as successful as passing the ball because it controls the clock.

#2. It doesn't take into account the relative strengths of those around them and what they are doing. The best way I can illustrate this is from their own website:



So basically this is why they ignore the effect of having Ryan Lindley as your starting QB on your running game.

There are other flaws in it as well like how they examine defense but at it's core if you are ignoring the impact a coach and teammates have on the gains and losses in football, I just don't give that a lot of credence.


Advanced stats are amazing in baseball. They are far less useful in football.

I had this nailed from the start.

 

[wa52lz]

So much better being lucky (games decided by less then 7, CP replicating his 2014 play and making a difference vs SEA) then good!!!

Sent from my XT1031 using Tapatalk

 

[GuernseyCard]

There is a family friend on an another site who says that Carson is having problems with his index finger; pain, grip related to accuracy. Stay tuned.

 

[RedRob]

There is a family friend on an another site who says that Carson is having problems with his index finger; pain, grip related to accuracy. Stay tuned.

For those of us who've dislocated fingers before this "news update" is right on par with "...supposedly there's going to be a lot of cheese heads at the game."