The Cost of Trading Up

[GimmedaBall]

No, they don’t need picks. They need a stud franchise quarterback. How they get that guy is obviously up for debate. Also, none of us has a chance of knowing who they like the best. It could very easily be the third or fourth quarterback drafted, and thus there really is no point in thinking about whether they are left with picking through the leftovers. You are right that they might select the third or fourth quarterback off the board, but that’s obviously a completely different discussion.

History tells us that trading up for a quarterback has been a good idea the last two years. Five teams have done it, and I think it’s safe to say that all five of them are happy that they did. Yes, the conclusion would be different if you went further back in history, but the NFL evolves so fast that you could argue that it would be irrelevant to do so.

I can’t remember who on this board brought this up, and I would like to apologize to that poster, but the Packers are probably the best example of a team that is bad without their best quarterback but can’t be ruled out as contenders when they have that quarterback on the field. My point is that you need good quarterback-play to win in this league, and the cost to secure a good franchise quarterback cannot be too high.

No where near enough time to pass judgement that these were good deals. Got to get a few years at least out of the QBs---or at least until all the draft picks that went to purchase them have been spoken for.

 

[WildBB]

Agree with a lot of your post, but that's a pretty high bar to pass: "I want to see it on a career long basis." The flip side to that is fans who'll argue that they want more recent examples of it actually working out, which would take the exact opposite set of demands to the ones you require.

I don't see how you can write off Goff/Wentz unless you actually don't anticipate them being good NFL QB's. These examples are sound. Are they the exception to the rule? Sure, that's valid, but I don't think we doubt they'll continue to be good QB's and worth the price paid by their teams.

The only question that matters is: is the guy we're trading up for any good? That's the only relevant piece. If he turns out to be a great QB, he's worth about any price. If he's a dud, we'll all rant and rave.

We all played this "show me" game when we traded for Kolb. The narrative back then was: show me a QB drafted in the 2nd round who was any good. And there weren't any. They either went in the 1st, or a team got lucky in a later round. Conclusion: never draft a QB in the 2nd. Then Derek Carr came and broke that stigma. Now we are all trying to come up with examples to support whatever narrative we support, be it trade up, never trade up, or the Keim approach: never draft a QB.

There are no hard and fast rules here. It just comes down to whether the dude can play, which we won't know until he gets on the field.

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Yeah, this is the rub. While Darnold is pretty much the consensus #1 QB in this draft, he's not the runaway #1 QB. Some teams have Darnold, Allen, Mayfield Rosen in that order. Others have a different order and they're not graded very far apart. We don't know how the Cardinals grade this group. So it's concievable that if they trade for the #4 pick before Clevland does, they will get their 2nd or 3rd choice there, of two talents they almost compare as equals.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Wrong... trying to build an arch without a keystone, you waste the whole roster till you get that quarterback

Rebuild both lines with young players. Get the OL to jell before getting the young QB. Get a 'star' at each level of the D---we need a dominant ILB. PP2 good for another two years. Draft someone like Vita Vea to anchor the DL for the next 10 years. . . then take a QB who will not have to 'do it all' but can flash without undue pressure.

See what happened to David Carr when he was drafted and put behind one of the worst OLs ever---guy got sacked to death and out-of-the league. Also, see how well Dak Prescott was able to perform behind a dominant OL and the addition of a superior RB.

 

[Solar7]

Wrong... trying to build an arch without a keystone, you waste the whole roster till you get that quarterback

Try to build an arch without enough blocks, you have a slightly tilted column.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Try to build an arch without enough blocks, you have a slightly tilted column.

We have enough right now

 

[Solar7]

We have enough right now

So, honestly, do you think with this roster as it stands right now, we could win the NFC West with no more additions but a 1st round QB, day 3 picks, and UDFAs?

If you believe that, I respect your opinion, but can't agree with it.

 

[Jetstream Green]

So, honestly, do you think with this roster as it stands right now, we could win the NFC West with no more additions but a 1st round QB, day 3 picks, and UDFAs?

If you believe that, I respect your opinion, but can't agree with it.

No, that is not the prerequisite for giving a rookie a chance. You do not have to be a division winning team at the other positions and seldom do successful rookies have that or the said team would not have drafted him in the first place

 

[Stout]

Sam Darnold, the presumed #1 overall pick, is 20 years old and won't be 21 until June. He's specifically who I was referencing.

We can definitely put it off longer. We cannot afford to gut the rest of this roster for a "quarterback of the future" and expect him to transcendentally improve the play of the rest of the team, including a unit he does not play on. We are not a franchise one piece away. Our division is so difficult right now that we are not a team that is going to win now adding him to the roster, and we're absolutely going to waste his career if we cannot put weapons around him to compete.

No, I'm sorry, that no longer holds water. I've heard the same damned thing for 4, 5, 6 seasons. Eh, we'll address THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION PROBABLY IN ALL SPORTS the NEXT year. And then it's the NEXT year. And then....well, you get it.

You know what? This post is the turning point for me (sorry for you bearing the brunt of it, Solar7 lol). Next year? Next year? NO LONGER! Pick the QB we want and do whatever the hell it takes to go get him.

Unfortunately, Keim has no balls, and has "aggressively" maneuvered his roster so that it won't possibly happened, but a man can dream, can't he?

 

[Jetstream Green]

No, I'm sorry, that no longer holds water. I've heard the same damned thing for 4, 5, 6 seasons. Eh, we'll address THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION PROBABLY IN ALL SPORTS the NEXT year. And then it's the NEXT year. And then....well, you get it.

You know what? This post is the turning point for me (sorry for you bearing the brunt of it, Solar7 lol). Next year? Next year? NO LONGER! Pick the QB we want and do whatever the hell it takes to go get him.

Unfortunately, Keim has no balls, and has "aggressively" maneuvered his roster so that it won't possibly happened, but a man can dream, can't he?

You know what was my most enjoyable season outside of going to the Super Bowl in the modern age, and it was not recently when we lost the NFC championship game... it was in '98 not because we made the playoffs but because we had drafted a young QB most where comparing to freaking Joe Montana in Jake Plummer, but though that did not obviously turn out to be the case, that still was amazing to think we finally got the position right

 

[Stout]

You know what was my most enjoyable season outside of going to the Super Bowl in the modern age, and it was not recently when we lost the NFC championship game... it was in '98 not because we made the playoffs but because we had drafted a young QB most where comparing to freaking Joe Montana in Plummer, but though that did not turn out to be the case it was amazing to think we finally got the position right

Man, I was over the moon when we drafted Plummer. I still think it was worth it, and would have us draft him again there 10 times out of 10.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Man, I was over the moon when we drafted Plummer. I still think it was worth it, and would have us draft him again there 10 times out of 10.

Also, it did not help that we basically dismantle the team after that year which could not have helped Jake out lol

 

[Solar7]

No, that is not the prerequisite for giving a rookie a chance. You do not have to be a division winning team at the other positions and seldom do successful rookies have that or the said team would not have drafted him in the first place

It's a prerequisite for blowing off your best way to acquire elite talent for the next few years. Your QB better be good enough to completely make the rest of the team better, enough that you're going to abandon growing parts of the rest of the team. If we traded up to get our QB of the future and he didn't take us to the playoffs before we owed him an extension, he probably wouldn't be worth it, right?

This all depends on how much you think the QB can completely transform the team. Considering there isn't a consensus #1 yet, it's one hell of a gamble. Winston and Mariota haven't been able to do it for their teams yet.

No, I'm sorry, that no longer holds water. I've heard the same damned thing for 4, 5, 6 seasons. Eh, we'll address THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION PROBABLY IN ALL SPORTS the NEXT year. And then it's the NEXT year. And then....well, you get it.

You know what? This post is the turning point for me (sorry for you bearing the brunt of it, Solar7 lol). Next year? Next year? NO LONGER! Pick the QB we want and do whatever the hell it takes to go get him.

Unfortunately, Keim has no balls, and has "aggressively" maneuvered his roster so that it won't possibly happened, but a man can dream, can't he?

Trust me, I was stumping for moving up for a QB last year. I think the "wait, next year's QBs will be better" argument is terrible. You have to take risks.

But risks need to be calculated and have some kind of a parachute built in. If "whatever it takes to go get him" means we trash the franchise, is it going to be worth it to you so you can say "at least we tried?"

QB desperate teams don't just move away from franchise, all-time players. This team will be stuck trying to make whoever we picked at #1 work for at least three years, with no other players to show for it. It's one thing to whiff if you're in the top 5 and he sucks. It's a completely different thing to whiff when you discarded your future.

 

[Jetstream Green]

It's a prerequisite for blowing off your best way to acquire elite talent for the next few years. Your QB better be good enough to completely make the rest of the team better, enough that you're going to abandon growing parts of the rest of the team. If we traded up to get our QB of the future and he didn't take us to the playoffs before we owed him an extension, he probably wouldn't be worth it, right?

This all depends on how much you think the QB can completely transform the team. Considering there isn't a consensus #1 yet, it's one hell of a gamble. Winston and Mariota haven't been able to do it for their teams yet.


Trust me, I was stumping for moving up for a QB last year. I think the "wait, next year's QBs will be better" argument is terrible. You have to take risks.

But risks need to be calculated and have some kind of a parachute built in. If "whatever it takes to go get him" means we trash the franchise, is it going to be worth it to you so you can say "at least we tried?"

QB desperate teams don't just move away from franchise, all-time players. This team will be stuck trying to make whoever we picked at #1 work for at least three years, with no other players to show for it. It's one thing to whiff if you're in the top 5 and he sucks. It's a completely different thing to whiff when you discarded your future.

I think moving up just to take one of the 'highly' rated QBs is the wrong approach. I think moving up to take your guy is the most analytical approach and not the statistical one. Look, you are still going to get canned if you do not, it will just take a little longer and the fans will be stuck with perpetual mediocrity if you do not

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Keim's record with 1st round picks is dreadful, so might as well package them for a QB. Just no 2nd's, or 3rd's, but everything else is fair game.

 

[Solar7]

You know what was my most enjoyable season outside of going to the Super Bowl in the modern age, and it was not recently when we lost the NFC championship game... it was in '98 not because we made the playoffs but because we had drafted a young QB most where comparing to freaking Joe Montana in Jake Plummer, but though that did not obviously turn out to be the case, that still was amazing to think we finally got the position right

Maybe my age is an issue here, because I really just started understanding and getting into football when Plummer was drafted, but for as much as I loved the guy, watching us wallow in mediocrity through the next 3 years knowing we couldn't do anything with it was ten times more disappointing than any other Cardinals football I can remember.

 

[Solar7]

I think moving up just to take one of the 'highly' rated QBs is the wrong approach. I think moving up to take your guy is the only approach. Look, you are still going to get canned if you do not, it will just take a little longer and the fans will be stuck with perpetual mediocrity if you do not

For the sake of this argument, I'm assuming you're talking about moving up to #1 and taking "our guy," removing any kind of chance from the equation. If Rosen is "our guy" and he slides to 8, and we make a move, you won't hear any complaints from me.

Keim's record with 1st round picks is dreadful, so might as well package them for a QB. Just no 2nd's, or 3rd's, but everything else is fair game.

It's easy for your record in the 1st to be bad when you're constantly picking at the back half of it.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Maybe my age is an issue here, because I really just started understanding and getting into football when Plummer was drafted, but for as much as I loved the guy, watching us wallow in mediocrity through the next 3 years knowing we couldn't do anything with it was ten times more disappointing than any other Cardinals football I can remember.

I have a strong feeling that if Michael was in charge and even Keim when we had Plummer, it would have been a much different story with the player exodus that the old man allowed following the playoff run

 

[Jetstream Green]

For the sake of this argument, I'm assuming you're talking about moving up to #1 and taking "our guy," removing any kind of chance from the equation. If Rosen is "our guy" and he slides to 8, and we make a move, you won't hear any complaints from me.


It's easy for your record in the 1st to be bad when you're constantly picking at the back half of it.

If it's Darnold you move up because he appears to be slated to be taken first. I think if it's Rosen, you wait to see how the draft shakes up with phone calls made prior to certain teams which will help your cause during the draft to get into position. I really think this draft probably has two guys the Cardinals really like and moving up for say Rosen or Mayfield may still make the Cardinals happy

 

[Solar7]

I have a strong feeling that is Michael was in charge and even Keim when we had Plummer, it would have been a much different story

I don't disagree, but if we're trading everything under the sun for one guy, Keim and Michael won't have the assets to keep that from happening to whoever our QB is.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

It's easy for your record in the 1st to be bad when you're constantly picking at the back half of it.

Had the 13th last year, and started off with a 7th his 1st year, so constantly picking in the back half is a bit of a stretch. All I know is...even Marvin Lewis has a better track record in the 1st round than Keim does.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I don't disagree, but if we're trading everything under the sun for one guy, Keim and Michael won't have the assets to keep that from happening to whoever our QB is.

With Plummer they had the assets already on the roster and made a ridiculous offer to Plummer when he would have taken less and then enhanced the old man's cheap moniker by not retaining guys on that team when we could have found a way

 

[Solar7]

Had the 13th last year, and started off with a 7th his 1st year, so constantly picking in the back half is a bit of a stretch. All I know is...even Marvin Lewis has a better track record in the 1st round than Keim does.

His first year was a pretty awful draft in the first round for all teams. And we haven't seen enough of Riddick to call him a bust. He was looking alright at ILB and got forced into a spot we didn't intend him to play.

Marvin Lewis isn't a GM.

 

[Gandhi]

History tells us nothing but bad news so far.

- Goff - One good season, driven heavily by the production of Todd Gurley. Had huge concerns in his rookie year. His head coach still calls protections for him at the line.
- Wentz - Looks to be the real deal, but the Eagles won the Super Bowl with a journeyman backup, not him. Torn ACL. Let's see how he recovers, and how much he elevates his team when they have to start shedding contracts, and consider extending him to pay him $30 million a year.
- Trubisky - Showed very minimal flashes. He'll need to take a major jump to be considered a success.
- Mahomes - Played in one game, did not throw a touchdown. Can't call him a success.
- Watson - Looked dynamic, but tore a second ACL - not a good sign for a player who relies heavily on mobility. Can he turn 5 games into 16? Not to mention, he cost the Texans the #4 overall pick. What if that's a Saquon Barkley that goes on to have a Hall of Fame career?

That’s a fair assessment. That is one way to look at it. You could also argue, though, that those teams and their fanbase are probably satisfied with the moves. What more do you want than hope and excitement? I know the jury is still out with those quarterbacks, but both of us know that in todays NFL, no one on this board, no one from the entire fanbase and probably none of the coaches or front office guys are going to give a quarterback three years free pass. It’s about results right now. Those teams got their guy.

- The Rams found their game manager with Jared Goff. He doesn’t need to do more than what he did last season.

- The Eagles found a quarterback who had probably been the offensive player of the year had he not gotten injured. He took the team to the playoff, and there was absolutely no reason to believe that he would suddenly struggle in the playoffs.

- The Chiefs found a quarterback that was blowing the draft community away leading up to the draft, and who they traded their successful veteran quarterback away to make room for.

- The Texans found a quarterback that is more than good enough to complement their potentially dominant defense.

- Mitch Trubisky stabilized the Bears’ offense. I have a good friend who is a huge Bears-fan. He told me that their fanbase is boiling over with excitement.

You don’t really think those organizations and fanbases where more happy and thrilled with their previous starting quarterbacks, including Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Matt Barkley, Brian Hoyer and the bad version of Case Keenum, do you?

Look, we all want the generational talent that can lead the Cardinals to multiple Super Bowls and be the offensive player of the year every season. The more realistic scenario, though, is to get hope and belief installed in the fanbase, and as a fan, that’s really all I am asking for. I didn’t like the years with John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, Kevin Kolb, Max Hall and all the others, and a huge part of that was that I did not for one second believe that the team could challenge any other teams in the long run. I have always been advocating for not trading up, and actually I have usually much rather wanted to trade down to stockpile more picks. This time, though, they don’t have Kurt Warner or Carson Palmer. I want the quarterback that can make me believe, and I am willing to take risks to get him.

You're getting distracted by the shiny names and not looking at the real production here.

I'll admit that I am probably getting distracted by being a fan that wants to be believe my team can win, also in the long run. Yes, I might get dissapointed, but at least I got to feel excited.

 

[Gandhi]

Rebuild both lines with young players. Get the OL to jell before getting the young QB. Get a 'star' at each level of the D---we need a dominant ILB. PP2 good for another two years. Draft someone like Vita Vea to anchor the DL for the next 10 years. . . then take a QB who will not have to 'do it all' but can flash without undue pressure.

That approach might take ten years. It might take twenty. It might never happen. A lot of factors goes into if a prospect is a homerun or a bust. It's not that easy as to simply select a prospect that plays a certain position. If it was that easy, every team would do it.

 

[GimmedaBall]

No, I'm sorry, that no longer holds water. I've heard the same damned thing for 4, 5, 6 seasons. Eh, we'll address THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION PROBABLY IN ALL SPORTS the NEXT year. And then it's the NEXT year. And then....well, you get it.

You know what? This post is the turning point for me (sorry for you bearing the brunt of it, Solar7 lol). Next year? Next year? NO LONGER! Pick the QB we want and do whatever the hell it takes to go get him.

Unfortunately, Keim has no balls, and has "aggressively" maneuvered his roster so that it won't possibly happened, but a man can dream, can't he?

Now you may not like the way the QB position has been addressed this off season but it has.

All the talk about 'getting your guy.' What if the guy SK identified as 'his guy' was Bradford and/or Glennon? The effort was made (via cap space and cash) to get both. SK took that route over trading away a boatload of draft picks. What if 'SK's guy' included a ranking of all the QBs available by both draft and FA and the top of the list were FA guys and that is where he went to 'get his guy?' From the outside, it looks to me that SK and Cards had Cousins as first option / Bradford / Glennon as backup and FQB. SK 'got his guys.'

Getting a vet QB (even one with a history of severe injury) has brought in Warner and Palmer. So SK has a foundation or rationale that that might work. Bradford was a #1 pick in his draft who has been on awful teams and multiple OC coordinators---when he got with Minn he had some success even behind a bad OL and no running game in 2016---we had a glimmer of what could be on a team with an improved OL and a RB in his NO game this 2018. Injured again. Big gamble by SK to bet on Bradfords knee---but no less a gamble than the Packers betting on Roger's clavicles. As to SK's 'balls' ----what do you call putting his professional career on the line on a gamble that Bradford's knee will hold up or that Glennon will come in as the backup and succeed?

I challenged those who want to trade up by surrendering multiple top draft picks to find one situation where that has worked and provided a franchise QB (not just a one season wonder). If the guy goes out by injury---such as with RGIII---it counts against the trade just as much as SK's gamble with Bradford's knee will count against him.

No response to that challenge---usually when that type of challenge gets issued, someone wants to shut me up good with their response and grind in their superior knowledge by shutting me down. I'm still waiting and would really like to find out if that has ever truly worked as a method to bring in a QB. So, instead of repeating over and over again how angry you are---how about backing up your opinion with some examples to support your case????

Edit: Joe Flacco as a possible QB---except he was not traded for multiple future top picks. All the picks used to trade for him were from the same draft. Ravens did not mortgage future drafts by taking him. Traded by Texans as 2008 1st round pick (18th overall) to Ravens for 2008 1st round pick (26th overall, Duane Brown), 2008 3rd round pick (89th overall, Steve Slaton) and 2008 6th round pick (173rd overall, Dominique Barber). That year, Cards took DRC at 16 and passed on Flacco. That trade was positive for the Ravens and Flacco has had a decent career and SB win (with a dominating D).