The Luka Report

[ArizonaSportsFan]

In the Raps game on Saturday he MADE as many FTs as the Raps TOOK! So he has the "anointed" stat going for him as well.

 

[BC867]

Doncic, Booker, Oubre, Saric, Baynes is WAY better than what the Mavs have. And the Mavs are 9-5! Doncic with as many shooters as we have would be scary.

Counting on Baynes to continue his start for the
whole season is an unrealistic expectation.

Saric would have to step in as primary Center all
too often. He hasn't made a dent as a Forward.

Is that the formula for a playoff-hopeful team?

Doncic and Booker as our two superstars would
take us back to the days of a backcourt-heavy
team. The Suns trademark. A pretty team. But
not a strong team for the playoffs.

We needed Ayton's potential to provide my
ongoing hope for the Suns -- a balanced roster.

Unfortunately, he needed a checkup-from-the
neck up. Hopefully, the coaching staff will
provide that going forward.

 

[Covert Rain]

Doncic is tearing it up but his role is basically to be the entire team. Aside from Porzingis, Doncic is the Mavericks. Similar to what Booker as been every single year until this year. I don't think Doncic puts up these numbers on a more balanced team. I don't. That takes nothing away from what he is doing. He is going what he has to for the team.

The Mavs only have 4 guys scoring in double figures. The Suns have 7 guys. The Mavs only have one guy averaging 9.4 assist. The next closest guy is at 3.1. The Suns have two guys Rubio and Booker averaging 8.1 and 5.9 respectively. The Mavs including Doncic only have 2 guys averaging more than 5 rebounds per game. The Suns 6 guys.

What I am saying is that is tough to compare Doncic to Booker or even Ayton when Doncic is being asked to be the entire team. The Suns are more balanced. What is going to be more important is to see by the halfway mark how many wins any of this actually translates into. Even then, the Suns are going to have a 25 game differential in terms of being at full strength.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Doncic is tearing it up but his role is basically to be the entire team. Aside from Porzingis, Doncic is the Mavericks. Similar to what Booker as been every single year until this year. I don't think Doncic puts up these numbers on a more balanced team. I don't. That takes nothing away from what he is doing. He is going what he has to for the team.

I think the difference you bring up is that Luka's numbers have had a big impact in Wins and Losses, whereas Booker's numbers haven't when he's been asked to carry a team.

 

[Covert Rain]

I think the difference you bring up is that Luka's numbers have had a big impact in Wins and Losses, whereas Booker's numbers haven't when he's been asked to carry a team.

That is a valid point for sure. However, it's early for the Mavs as well which is why I said let's see where things stand at the mid-point.

 

[Cheesebeef]

That is a valid point for sure. However, it's early for the Mavs as well which is why I said let's see where things stand at the mid-point.

agreed, but we already saw last year Luka's impact in wins and losses with the Mavs helping to improve that team 14 games in the wins and loss column, whereas Booker was never able to do the same up until this year when we can all agree the talent level around him was much much better.

 

[AzStevenCal]

agreed, but we already saw last year Luka's impact in wins and losses with the Mavs helping to improve that team 14 games in the wins and loss column, whereas Booker was never able to do the same up until this year when we can all agree the talent level around him was much much better.

The Mavs only won 10 of their final 31 games following their mid-season trade which is an even worse winning rate than they'd had the previous season. That big improvement you're talking about occurred while Dennis Smith, Deandre Jordan and Wesley Matthews were still playing. And the year before the Mavericks were reportedly tanking on a level we've not really seen and were chastised (and fined, I believe) by the league for repeatedly benching key players in winnable games (reportedly).

So I don't see how you can give him all the credit for the difference in wins. Also, you're ignoring the respective starting points, which as bad as the Mavs were, they were never looking at the barely G League roster that we had assembled. And I'm not disagreeing with your contention that he made that team better than Booker did the Suns, I'm disagreeing with the "facts" you've been using to try and prove it.

Lastly, I'm not really sure where your "14 game improvement" is coming from? Unless I'm misunderstanding your point, Dallas only improved by 9 wins in Luka's first season.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I find anyone’s attempts to downplay doncic’s abilities, achievements and status in the league 100% laughable at this juncture. All the “yeah I agree he’s great but” comments are really just silly. He’s next level. Already. End of story (except it’s not, he’s likely only going to get even better).

 

[elindholm]

Dallas went from 24 to 33 wins last season, and from 22nd/30 in the Sagarin ratings to 21st/30. The difference between an awful team and a merely bad one can be slight, and due to a lot of random factors, because the stakes in the individual games just aren't very high. But if Dallas continues to contend for a high playoff seed, that's a different story, and Doncic will deserve a lot of credit for that.

 

[Mainstreet]

I find anyone’s attempts to downplay doncic’s abilities, achievements and status in the league 100% laughable at this juncture. All the “yeah I agree he’s great but” comments are really just silly. He’s next level. Already. End of story (except it’s not, he’s likely only going to get even better).

All one has to do is watch Doncic play to realize he is an elite player. The only question is how great he will become. The only thing that might limit his upside is injury.

 

[AzStevenCal]

All one has to do is watch Doncic play to realize he is an elite player. The only question is how great he will become. The only thing that might limit his upside is injury.

And other than heavy usage at a young age he really doesn't have any of the aspects to his game that suggest high injury risk down the road.

 

[Covert Rain]

I find anyone’s attempts to downplay doncic’s abilities, achievements and status in the league 100% laughable at this juncture. All the “yeah I agree he’s great but” comments are really just silly. He’s next level. Already. End of story (except it’s not, he’s likely only going to get even better).

Who is downplaying his ability? He is playing great. I agree with the above. Since he was NBA ready the question is where is his ceiling?

 

[Cheesebeef]

The Mavs only won 10 of their final 31 games following their mid-season trade which is an even worse winning rate than they'd had the previous season. That big improvement you're talking about occurred while Dennis Smith, Deandre Jordan and Wesley Matthews were still playing.

Not going retype this entire argument again, so I'll just repost here, where Hoop Head made many of the same arguments as you did:

I already went over this. Last year wasn't all Luka. He had a lot of help and once the team was stripped and all of his help was traded away (Barnes, Jordan, Matthews, and others) his numbers looked about the same and they quit winning almost right then.

Here's what you're completely ignoring. The 24 win Mavericks team the year before Doncic had Barnes and Matthews and Smith on it. It's not like they added those guys WITH Luka and then got better last year. The only two additions made to that woeful 24 win Mavs team before Doncic were Doncic himself and DeAndre Jordan, who's such an impactful player he's been passed around more than a joint at a Dead Concert, currently on his FOURTH team since 2018.

So, again, with the majority of the pre-Doncic Dallas team, Doncic came in and made an impact immediately helping them win more games with more or less the exact same amount of talent.

Also, the idea that "his numbers looked about the same", is completely wrong as well. Come on guys... it's not hard to just look things up. After the Mavs dumped the entire team around him, Luka's numbers JUMPED, some significantly after EVERYONE was traded away around the All-Star break.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/6014/splits?selectedTable=0&season={%22season%22:2018,%22seasonPhase%22:%22REGULAR_SEASON%22,%22groupedBySeason%22:true}

Pre-Break he averaged 20.7 ppg, 7.2 rebounds, 5.6 assists
Post All-Star Break he averaged 22.7, 9.9 rebounds and 7.1 assists.

Raindog made a really good post about the help he had last season and how much he effected their record himself.

again, all that "help" was on the 24 win team the year previous to Doncic getting there.

He was not the only person responsible for their winning 9 more games than they did the year prior.

Yeah. He was. Unless you're again going to try and again argue that Jordan's stat-padding ass which has been passed around by four teams since 2018 was really the main contributor to them getting better.

They were 25-28 when everyone was traded away.

Thank you for saving your worst point, while making my best, for last. Before all the trades to gut the team for Porzingus, the Mavs had very similar rosters, save one major difference.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2018.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2019.html

2017-2018 Mavs with Matthews, Barnes, Dennis Smith but without Doncic went 24-58.

2018-2019 with with Matthews, Barnes and Dennis Smith PLUS Doncic went 25-28, winning more games than ALL of the previous season, with still 29 games left in the year. If that doesn't say major impact, I don't know what does.

Again, with very similar rosters, the Mavs went from a .292 win percentage in 2017-2018 to .471 win percentage with most things being equal between the two teams, except for the addition of Doncic. That's a HUGE difference and sign of major impact. Unless, again, you're going to try and argue that DeAndre was really the difference maker.

Without that help they went 8-21, which isn't an improvement on their prior season when you're talking about winning percentage.

Oy. Why in the world would you measure Doncic's impact coming to the 24 win Mavs team by showing how Doncic's team did once almost all of the main pieces of the 24 win team was taken away? The variables in both equation are very similar in the first comparison. What kind of sense does it possibly make to change all the variables and then make the comparison in record?

They gutted the team after all those trades. What he did after that has no bearing on the impact he made on the 24 win team because the team he was playing on after was completely different.

And oddly enough, even with a completely gutted team, where he was literally winning games singlehandedly without all of "the help" you mentioned earlier, the 8-21 team's winning percentage was .273 to the 24-58 win club's .291, which basically shows even without anyone on the team, he could still put up a record close to the team that didn't have him, but had the help y'all talked about.

Now, to more of your problematic points:

And the year before the Mavericks were reportedly tanking on a level we've not really seen and were chastised (and fined, I believe) by the league for repeatedly benching key players in winnable games (reportedly).

as were the Suns.

So I don't see how you can give him all the credit for the difference in wins.

I don't give him ALL the credit. But I sure as hell do give him a majority of the credit and he's done nothing this year but prove how much he actually impacts the wins and loss ledger.

Also, you're ignoring the respective starting points, which as bad as the Mavs were, they were never looking at the barely G League roster that we had assembled.

actually, I'm not. The Suns team was very bad... but they somehow got WORSE than the previous year when they only won 21 games even tho they added the number 1 pick in the draft who the majority of people here like to say had a "historic" rookie season for a C, another player who they deemed worthy of 2 first round picks, by December Oubre.

And I'm not disagreeing with your contention that he made that team better than Booker did the Suns, I'm disagreeing with the "facts" you've been using to try and prove it

Lastly, I'm not really sure where your "14 game improvement" is coming from? Unless I'm misunderstanding your point, Dallas only improved by 9 wins in Luka's first season.

meant 9 games, not 14. My bad there.

 

[BC867]

I find anyone’s attempts to downplay doncic’s abilities, achievements and status in the league 100% laughable at this juncture. All the “yeah I agree he’s great but” comments are really just silly. He’s next level. Already. End of story (except it’s not, he’s likely only going to get even better).

I don't think those of us who still support choosing Ayton over Doncic are downplaying his abilities, achievements and status.

We're saying that drafting Ayton filled one of our two greatest needs. And by adding Rubio, we filled the other.

If we had drafted Doncic, we would have filled just one.

It made more sense to draft a #1 pick Center and obtain a Point Guard than draft a Forward who plays the point on
offense and try to get more than a journeyman Center.

It is not about Doncic. It is about the big picture. And filling the Suns needs.

A perennial playoff team adding Doncic would be great. A team missing the playoffs for a decade needed more than
a flashy Forward who can play the point. No matter what stats Doncic puts up.

 

[AzStevenCal]

So, again, with the majority of the pre-Doncic Dallas team, Doncic came in and made an impact immediately helping them win more games with more or less the exact same amount of talent.

You appear to be ignoring or glossing over a key difference here. The Suns didn't actively tank that season. Unintentionally, I'm afraid, they simply put together a roster that was incapable of doing anything else but lose. The Mavericks had a weaker than average NBA roster but it was still an NBA roster. Ours just wasn't. They tanked by yanking key players in key moments which turned their 33 win team of 2017 into a 23 win team the year before Luka arrives. It's far more reasonable IMO to compare the Luka team to the one that wasn't throwing games.

Again, I have no problem with someone watching Luka play and saying he makes them better in a way that Booker hasn't. I just disagree with your contention that it's basically been proven by their record those 2 seasons. If anything, I'd point to how they played prior to the trade to support a claim that Doncic had an immediate impact.

 

[Cheesebeef]

You appear to be ignoring or glossing over a key difference here. The Suns didn't actively tank that season. Unintentionally, I'm afraid, they simply put together a roster that was incapable of doing anything else but lose.

The Mavericks had a weaker than average NBA roster but it was still an NBA roster. Ours just wasn't. They tanked by yanking key players in key moments which turned their 33 win team of 2017 into a 23 win team the year before Luka arrives. It's far more reasonable IMO to compare the Luka team to the one that wasn't throwing games.

It's only more reasonable because it makes your support of Booker easier to argue. Because if you want to talk "facts", you're completely ignoring the fact that we didn't just yank key players in key moments at the end of the same season. We literally just BENCHED our BEST player (Booker) for the last 13 games of the year. And beyond that, we were noted as one of the great second half tank teams EVER, showing just how drastic of a change our play was over the course of the first half to second half of the season. Take a gander:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/4/10/17217794/phoenix-suns-tanking-history

So, again, you want to play the "Dallas was really better than their 24 win record so you can't use that to prove Doncic had much of an impact" while bouncing it off Booker's Suns, but are completely ignoring that the 21 win Suns call it completely quits on the season and went full tank with 13 games left as well.

And again, with all that said, we still somehow lost MORE the next season even with the first pick in the draft, Bridges, Oubre and a coach you said could end up being the best coach in Suns history.

Again, I have no problem with someone watching Luka play and saying he makes them better in a way that Booker hasn't. I just disagree with your contention that it's basically been proven by their record those 2 seasons.

except I'm saying we're continuing to see evidence this season as well that he impacts the Wins/Loss column... which you keep ignoring for some reason, while confining my argument to only last season.

If anything, I'd point to how they played prior to the trade to support a claim that Doncic had an immediate impact.

yeah. I've done the above multiple times. You just don't want to see it.

 

[GatorAZ]

Book is the superior shooter/iso scorer.

Luka, if the season ended today would be first team all nba. He’s 20.

No contest.

 

[AzStevenCal]

It's only more reasonable because it makes your support of Booker easier to argue. Because if you want to talk "facts", you're completely ignoring the fact that we didn't just yank key players in key moments at the end of the same season. We literally just BENCHED our BEST player (Booker) for the last 13 games of the year. And beyond that, we were noted as one of the great second half tank teams EVER, showing just how drastic of a change our play was over the course of the first half to second half of the season. Take a gander:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/4/10/17217794/phoenix-suns-tanking-history

So, again, you want to play the "Dallas was really better than their 24 win record so you can't use that to prove Doncic had much of an impact" while bouncing it off Booker's Suns, but are completely ignoring that the 21 win Suns call it completely quits on the season and went full tank with 13 games left as well.

And again, with all that said, we still somehow lost MORE the next season even with the first pick in the draft, Bridges, Oubre and a coach you said could end up being the best coach in Suns history.



except I'm saying we're continuing to see evidence this season as well that he impacts the Wins/Loss column... which you keep ignoring for some reason, while confining my argument to only last season.



yeah. I've done the above multiple times. You just don't want to see it.

I don't even know where to start here, you're all over the place. First off, this had nothing to do with me supporting Booker. I think you've jumped to a conclusion solely because I didn't want to get into an argument about Doncic versus Booker. To clarify, I don't think there's any question that Luka has outplayed Devin so far this season and it's not all that close. It just wasn't the point of my post nor did I want it to be. I think there's been enough Booker bashing, I'd just as soon not add to it.

And I haven't ignored the current season at all, where does that claim come from? Have I tried to make the point that Booker has impacted the Suns more than Luka? I don't think so. You're flipping the switch here, I have no agenda nor am I trying to prove a point, I'm just contesting one aspect of your point.

And we didn't tank by putting Booker on the bench. He hurt his hand, he tried to play through it but it was killing the team and they eventually sat him so it could heal. Any team in the NBA would have done the same thing even if they didn't have a draft pick (IMO).

As best as I can recall, we tanked one full season and we tanked one partial season (maybe 2?), all the rest of our horrible seasons are pretty much on the backs of those responsible for churning our rosters every year while still managing to staff it each year with kids, G Leaguers and old men.

 

[SirStefan32]

This whole "Luka is good, BUT..." thing is just silly. Anyone who actually watched a few of his games can see just how good he is. I love Book, but Luka is on a whole different level.

 

[swagron]

This whole "Luka is good, BUT..." thing is just silly. Anyone who actually watched a few of his games can see just how good he is. I love Book, but Luka is on a whole different level.

Agreed. You can spin it as hard as you might, but Luka might be
...dare I say a “generational talent”

 

[AzStevenCal]

I don't think those of us who still support choosing Ayton over Doncic are downplaying his abilities, achievements and status.
We're saying that drafting Ayton filled one of our two greatest needs. And by adding Rubio, we filled the other.

If we had drafted Doncic, we would have filled just one.

It made more sense to draft a #1 pick Center and obtain a Point Guard than draft a Forward who plays the point on
offense and try to get more than a journeyman Center.

It is not about Doncic. It is about the big picture. And filling the Suns needs.

A perennial playoff team adding Doncic would be great. A team missing the playoffs for a decade needed more than
a flashy Forward who can play the point. No matter what stats Doncic puts up.

All true and yet, had we drafted Doncic, I believe we'd be much closer to competing at the highest level then we are with Ayton and Rubio on the roster. So, maybe it would have cost us a little in the short run but in a quest for a championship, Luka would have put us far closer than any/all of the additions we made this season plus Ayton.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I find anyone’s attempts to downplay doncic’s abilities, achievements and status in the league 100% laughable at this juncture. All the “yeah I agree he’s great but” comments are really just silly. He’s next level. Already. End of story (except it’s not, he’s likely only going to get even better).

THIS x 1000

All one has to do is watch Doncic play to realize he is an elite player. The only question is how great he will become. The only thing that might limit his upside is injury.

The way he is built and his style of play actually limit his risk of injury.

Agreed. You can spin it as hard as you might, but Luka might be
...dare I say a “generational talent”

Hearty laugh. hahaha

Luka is going to be an All-Star before Booker. And an all NBA guy before Booker. Comparing him to Ayton at this point is laughable. If only our front office knew that. And we needed a PG as well as a center. The scouting seemed so clear to me.

right now I see Levi Brown vs. AP staring us in the face. But at least most of the Cards fans wanted AP in the first place IIRC.

If Ayton slightly improves it could be better that than comp...... But as I have said for a while now.... he needs to become the next David Robinson to even come close to justifying why he was drafted before Luka and I just cant see that happening.

Bowie, Oden, Olowokandi, etc.... What's past is prologue.

The only thing that keeps me hopeful is how Embid blew up in year four. Only difference is that Embid had ELITE basketball talents (Defense) when he was drafted. Ayton has ELITE physical gifts. There's a huge difference with that IMO. We really need DA to get back on the court so he can improve his game.

 

[Covert Rain]

All true and yet, had we drafted Doncic, I believe we'd be much closer to competing at the highest level then we are with Ayton and Rubio on the roster. So, maybe it would have cost us a little in the short run but in a quest for a championship, Luka would have put us far closer than any/all of the additions we made this season plus Ayton.

I think it's too early and the reverse might be true. Having Doncic in the short term would get us closer. However, IF and it's a big IF.....if Ayton lives up to his potential? I think that getting Rubio, drafting Ayton and putting them with Booker is the better longer term choice.

If Ayton doesn't live up to it? This team will definitely regret not picking Doncic. Again, though you can't blame the Suns. I don't think any team would have picked differently than the Suns leading up to the draft.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I think it's too early and the reverse might be true. Having Doncic in the short term would get us closer. However, IF and it's a big IF.....if Ayton lives up to his potential? I think that getting Rubio, drafting Ayton and putting them with booker was still the right call and the better longer term choice.

If Ayton doesn't live up to it? This team will definitely regret not picking Doncic.

The inverse COULD have been a combo of Richaun Holmes and Brook Lopez for about the same money we poured into Rubio.

 

[Covert Rain]

The inverse COULD have been a combo of Richaun Holmes and Brook Lopez for about the same money we poured into Rubio.

Holmes?!?!?!?!? 11 points and 0.7 assist guys are not hard to come by. So it comes down to, does adding Lopez add more value than Rubio.

Hell no.