The Luka Report

[Mainstreet]

I think the key with Ayton is patience. Every reasonable person knew Doncic would be better in his first season, second season, third season, so Ayton was drafted for what he would be a few years later. Big problem was that Ayton was so over-hyped by the local homers as well as the crowd that thinks every white European player is a Darko Milicic that people had crazy expectations for Ayton. He obviously has the issues every reasonable person was aware of (lack of drive, aggression, nastiness, defense, etc) but in my opinion he is far better than I expected him to be in his rookie season. Now if he could only stop getting stoned and then trying to cover it up, it would be even better, but he is still further along in his development than I expected him to be. Oddly enough, so are Doncic and Young.

For sure, nothing in regard to the plan for Ayton has changed but the suspension. If he can put these issues behind him I think he will live up to expectations. It's simply a bit hard to take when the Suns are taxiing for take off.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Was looking through some of the on/off numbers and came across the Mavs. Oddly enough there is no drop off offensively between when Doncic is on or off the court (team has a 111 rating either way). The defense is however 11 points better when he is off the court.

Porzingas on the other hand is a huge negative on offense and even a negative on defense as well (-25.1 net rating)...

https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612742/onoffcourt-summary/

 

[Phrazbit]

Was looking through some of the on/off numbers and came across the Mavs. Oddly enough there is no drop off offensively between when Doncic is on or off the court (team has a 111 rating either way). The defense is however 11 points better when he is off the court.

Porzingas on the other hand is a huge negative on offense and even a negative on defense as well (-25.1 net rating)...

https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612742/onoffcourt-summary/

On/off can vary wildly, especially in a small sample size like we have so far, because they rely so much on how one team's bench matches up the opposition.

IMO, what i get from those numbers is that the Mavs bench has been solid.

But I also expect that Doncic will never be a plus defender.

He does need to cut back on the long three point attempts, he will get trapped behind the arch, early in the clock and just hoist up a three. He also needs to get a little less fancy with his passes, he will do a no look, behind the back pass to a guy... who was already open and where no defenders could get in the way... he's turning the ball over a lot. But that is pretty common with young ball handlers.

 

[SirStefan32]

On/off can vary wildly, especially in a small sample size like we have so far, because they rely so much on how one team's bench matches up the opposition.

IMO, what i get from those numbers is that the Mavs bench has been solid.

But I also expect that Doncic will never be a plus defender.

He does need to cut back on the long three point attempts, he will get trapped behind the arch, early in the clock and just hoist up a three. He also needs to get a little less fancy with his passes, he will do a no look, behind the back pass to a guy... who was already open and where no defenders could get in the way... he's turning the ball over a lot. But that is pretty common with young ball handlers.

This is very true. He really needs to stop hoisting up long threes for no reason. I understand is as a heat-check once you've hit a few, but he really goes overboard. He definitely gets too cute with passing as well.

 

[GatorAZ]

This is very true. He really needs to stop hoisting up long threes for no reason. I understand is as a heat-check once you've hit a few, but he really goes overboard. He definitely gets too cute with passing as well.

He’s definitely high on himself (the great ones are) but he takes some really bad shots. He’s not Kobe/Harden where he can create a lot of separation to get his shot off. He also doesn’t jump that much on his shot and it’s easy to contest. Kinda reminds me of Nash. He could get wherever he wanted but on jumpers he needed a lot of fade-aways or out extra arc on his shots.

 

[Sunburn]

A forum moderator on realgm wrote an interesting piece about Doncic. Of the top 60 players in the league I believe, Doncic was the only player with a negative on/off and +/- last season. So far, it has carried over to this season, again with a negative on/off and +/-. I think Doncic is a top 10 player, but I found it very interesting regarding his impact on team success.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1907853

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

A forum moderator on realgm wrote an interesting piece about Doncic. Of the top 60 players in the league I believe, Doncic was the only player with a negative on/off and +/- last season. So far, it has carried over to this season, again with a negative on/off and +/-. I think Doncic is a top 10 player, but I found it very interesting regarding his impact on team success.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1907853

They have good bench players and specifically a good bench PG in Brunson. Factor in that the bench is genrally playing against other benches and you can understand why the offense doesn't have a drop off when he leaves the floor. He is however a poor defender and that shows through glaringly in the on/off rating. I would guess that his overall impact is at least a little above neutral, but random circumstances make it not seem that way.

 

[SirStefan32]

42 points, 11 rebounds and 12 assists for Luka in a win over San Antonio.

 

[Mainstreet]

42 points, 11 rebounds and 12 assists for Luka in a win over San Antonio.

That hurts right now especially while Ayton is suspended.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

42 points, 11 rebounds and 12 assists for Luka in a win over San Antonio.

And a dagger of a step back 3 to seal it.

 

[GatorAZ]

As others mentioned it’s not just Luka vs Ayton. It’s Luka and Igor vs Ayton and Monty. But I would always side with the on court talent... Monty has been great so far but we once started out 14-9 under Hornacek.

 

[Phrazbit]

As others mentioned it’s not just Luka vs Ayton. It’s Luka and Igor vs Ayton and Monty. But I would always side with the on court talent... Monty has been great so far but we once started out 14-9 under Hornacek.

We went 48-34 under Hornacek. Probably would have been the 4 or 5 seed if Bledsoe stays healthy.

 

[Hoop Head]

As others mentioned it’s not just Luka vs Ayton. It’s Luka and Igor vs Ayton and Monty. But I would always side with the on court talent... Monty has been great so far but we once started out 14-9 under Hornacek.

Luka and Igor? What does Igor have to do with this? He is an assistant for the Kings now. Rick Carlisle is Luka's coach in Dallas and he coached the Mavs to a title about 8-9 years ago.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Yeah.... Igor has nothing to do with it.

Sarver wanted Ayton. And now Ayton has to live up to the hype or it will haunt us for a decade at the least.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

[AzStevenCal]

Yeah.... Igor has nothing to do with it.

Sarver wanted Ayton. And now Ayton has to live up to the hype or it will haunt us for a decade at the least.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Really? Based on what? Just because we took him or because they both went to UofA? What about Sarver's trips to see Luka play and the rumors/speculation that he was head over heels about him as a player. Not to mention the fact that from a financial standpoint, long thought to be Sarver's only real interest, the Suns would have had far more income had they drafted the Euro cash machine.

 

[Covert Rain]

Really? Based on what? Just because we took him or because they both went to UofA? What about Sarver's trips to see Luka play and the rumors/speculation that he was head over heels about him as a player. Not to mention the fact that from a financial standpoint, long thought to be Sarver's only real interest, the Suns would have had far more income had they drafted the Euro cash machine.

Every team wanted Ayton. Not that people didn't recognize Doncic's talent or that he was NBA ready but Ayton was a consensus first pick. He is acting like Sarver was an outlier or something.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Every team wanted Ayton.

I don't necessarily disagree but that's not at all relevant to the conversation unless I'm missing something. I'm merely contesting the claim that Sarver had to have been the force behind the Ayton decision. Maybe he was but there's evidence to suggest it was Ryan leading the charge for Deandre. And given that so many insist that Sarver is only interested in money, it makes no sense that he wouldn't have been a strong proponent for the one player in this class that was sure to drive up revenues.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Every team wanted Ayton. Not that people didn't recognize Doncic's talent or that he was NBA ready but Ayton was a consensus first pick. He is acting like Sarver was an outlier or something.

Okay, now I see your point. I guess I responded before you'd fleshed out your comment. Yeah, there were a lot of people in Luka's corner but there were even more behind Ayton.

 

[GatorAZ]

Luka and Igor? What does Igor have to do with this? He is an assistant for the Kings now. Rick Carlisle is Luka's coach in Dallas and he coached the Mavs to a title about 8-9 years ago.

If we took Luka you still think Igor would’ve been fired? Of course it’s a hypothetical but that was my point.

 

[dscher]

An article I read today made me even more nauseous about it.. something to the tune of,"Take the teenager who is absolutely dominating grown men in a highly competitive league! He’s probably going to be really, really good...."

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

An article I read today made me even more nauseous about it.. something to the tune of,"Take the teenager who is absolutely dominating grown men in a highly competitive league! He’s probably going to be really, really good...."

I mean there were comments like that floating around this board before the draft as well. It was a pretty well known thing that he was a more proven basketball player than the guys coming from college.

 

[dscher]

I mean there were comments like that floating around this board before the draft as well. It was a pretty well known thing that he was a more proven basketball player than the guys coming from college.

Yeah.. I wasn't around for those..but of course the articles are flying around today after that game last night.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Really? Based on what? Just because we took him or because they both went to UofA? What about Sarver's trips to see Luka play and the rumors/speculation that he was head over heels about him as a player. Not to mention the fact that from a financial standpoint, long thought to be Sarver's only real interest, the Suns would have had far more income had they drafted the Euro cash machine.

I dont have the time to go back and physically search for the links but it was a known quatity.

Sarver has serious UofA ties, Ayton was the local product, and even though there were serious allegations surrounding his time at Arizona, he was Sarver's #1 choice.

Of course he will go through the due diligence of scouting Luka but damn man...... How can you even question this? The smoke is overwhelming.

With all of that being said..... Ayton may turn into something special but (roughly) he has two more years to do it. By then..... We will be discussing his impending Max deal and how much it will hurt us on the cap long term.

Luka may already be the best 20-year old to break into the league since Lebron. And as I said...... he is an early top 5 MVP candidate already.

It's still early though. Nothing is written in stone yet.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I dont have the time to go back and physically search for the links but it was a known quatity.

Sarver has serious UofA ties, Ayton was the local product, and even though there were serious allegations surrounding his time at Arizona, he was Sarver's #1 choice.

Of course he will go through the due diligence of scouting Luka but damn man...... How can you even question this? The smoke is overwhelming.

With all of that being said..... Ayton may turn into something special but (roughly) he has two more years to do it. By then..... We will be discussing his impending Max deal and how much it will hurt us on the cap long term.

Luka may already be the best 20-year old to break into the league since Lebron. And as I said...... he is an early top 5 MVP candidate already.

It's still early though. Nothing is written in stone yet.

And I believe you're mistaken. I can't tell you how many times I read how Sarver was going to screw us all over for a chance to draft a cash cow. I have no inside knowledge and am left with following the bread crumbs; the same is true for you regardless of how much smoke you think you've seen.

 

[Mainstreet]

It's been discussed before but I think it's hard to imagine Sarver not being onboard with the selection of Ayton.

If Sarver would override McDonough in the trade for Bridges it makes sense he would do the same if he wanted someone else other than Ayton.

Notice I have left Shai out of the equation.