The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Devilmaycare]

If it's long term retirement money, I'd take the W and invest it at a lower price than what I sold or at the very least invest half and DCA the rest in over the next few months. You can hold and hope for a lower price that may or may not come. Studies show that dropping the lump sum in more often than not pays off in the long run over DCA or waiting for a lower entry point.

Another way to look at is to remind yourself that this money was already in the market and was only removed because of a rollover, so just put it back in.

This topic is addressed here.

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Thanks, makes sense. I'll start dropping some in today. I was mainly going to buy funds but also a few shares of GOOG with it and they're down 2.8% right now too which is good timing.

 

[elindholm]

Did anyone get in on Inspirato? Up by factor of 6 today.

 

[dscher]

Watching yields here closely moving forward. I think the 2/10 curve tightening (on its way to inverting) is showing the 3mth/10 will be the next to follow. My opinion is we'll see long term yields drop significantly with potential emergency rate hikes that will raise the short end creating another yield curve inversion... Crazy times.

 

[Folster]

Did anyone get in on Inspirato? Up by factor of 6 today.

Never heard of it. Just looked it up and see it was a SPAC. Luxury vacation rentals.

 

[Folster]

If you like to fade Cramer, now may be a time to buy ARKK. I remember everyone calling Cathie a genius a year ago.

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Pretty rough.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Never heard of it. Just looked it up and see it was a SPAC. Luxury vacation rentals.

Wish I had been in on that spac. That's what you hope for when buying one.

 

[dscher]

If you like to fade Cramer, now may be a time to buy ARKK. I remember everyone calling Cathie a genius a year ago.

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Pretty rough.

It will be a tremendous buy at 40-45.. she was a mess today on CNBC. People betting against innovation in a current no growth environment is an amazing risk/reward.

 

[Devilmaycare]

If you like to fade Cramer, now may be a time to buy ARKK. I remember everyone calling Cathie a genius a year ago.

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Pretty rough.

A year ago I was a stock market genius too when I bought TSLA at $500 pre-split and watched it get up to $1100 post split. If you look at ARKK's history it was performing decently in 2017-2020 while the entire market was rising but then blew up after the covid crash which also corresponded with TSLA and the EV market blowing up. So really was smart or just riding the wave?

Crammer also mentioned Roku in that. Ouch. I hadn't been watching them. Missed earnings today and was down 10% for the day and then another 20% in AH. They've had a huge drop over the last 6 months going from $358 to now $114.99 in AH today.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

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The Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP - Updated Chart | Longtermtrends

Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator for stocks. It has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett.

www.longtermtrends.net

Gonna bring these back out of the woodwork during times like these...

 

[Finito]

If you like to fade Cramer, now may be a time to buy ARKK. I remember everyone calling Cathie a genius a year ago.

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Pretty rough.

“I would never in a million years tell you, you just wait Sarah because when that thing comes back. Who the hell had the right to say that”- Jim Cramer

Also Jim Cramer

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The single most epic “ you just wait till it comes back” moment in TV history

 

[Folster]

Added to FB and INTC today. Also added to T earlier this week. I'm eyeing MMM really hard right now, but hoping for a bit more of a discount.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

Fear & Greed is CNNMoney's investor sentiment tool that comprises of 7 markets indicators.

money.cnn.com

Still sitting at 36 after these moves.... people are still dip buying / buying calls. Need to see a huge vol spike to flush out the weak hands. IMO.

 

[Folster]

Now big difference between investing and gambling. I like to gamble.

Like I said fundamentals are great if your investing long term in a company you believe it and you want smaller profits over the long haul.

That’s not me for the most part. I’m a swing trade gambler. I’m in and out for the most part. The thought of making a few thousand over a couple years does nothing for me.

You asked me about DWAC. Don’t care. I’m counting on the hype machine leading to it going live. Then I’ll jump out at a price that’s good for me.

I didn’t know it was considered a conspiracy theory to say mainstream media has been corrupted. I thought it was common knowledge. Red or Blue, Bull or Bear it’s all the same.

But I do like Charles Payne

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Charlie is also good on Ziptrader

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Meet Kevin

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Unusual Wales on Twitter is a good follow

https://mobile.twitter.com/unusual_whales

Those are some of the things I watch and cross reference for entertainment.

I heard some chatter on Reddit that this Meet Kevin guy got washed out and sold everything. People are speculating he got margin called. He stopped doing his pre and post market show and disabled comments on his YouTube videos

It seems he was pushing a lot of hype stocks the last couple years and encouraging people to buy the dip which worked until it didn't. Now he's a "sky is falling" bear calling for a massive crash.

I checked out his channel. He just turned 30 and of course sells online wealth building courses.

I'm sure he'll be fine with his YouTube money but he seems to have been exposed as a crank as the tide goes out on this market.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

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[dscher]

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Beautiful!

 

[dscher]

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[Devilmaycare]

Anyone have of a good defense contractor ETF or fund? It might be the way to go for the next little bit.

 

[dscher]

Anyone have of a good defense contractor ETF or fund? It might be the way to go for the next little bit.

I don't even know if you can hang out in those yet, TBH. Maybe when the dust settles a bit after all this market volatility would be better. I saw a chart of LMT and that looks to be in a similar situation to the broader market.... weakening momentum.

 

[Folster]

Anyone have of a good defense contractor ETF or fund? It might be the way to go for the next little bit.

I don't think there's a silver bullet for the uncertainty ahead.

Long term allocations shouldn't change much. I've increased my international exposure to 20% and increased my value exposure within domestic and international.

For retirement accounts I'm running 55% Large Cap Blend, 25% US Small and Mid Cap, and 20% International. Those groups are further divided into more narrow categories.

My midterm money is approximately 30% equity (split 10% Total US Market, 10% US Large Value/Dividend, 10% International Value), 30% Gold and Silver (22/8 respectively), and 25% Ultra Short term, bonds and 15% cash

 

[dscher]

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[Folster]

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I thinks this is right. Inflation, the expansion of the money supply is a tax on the working and middle class. Wages never catch up to the inflation and the actual impact is disguised with CPI manipulations like owner-equivalent rents and technological innovation.

 

[dscher]

I thinks this is right. Inflation, the expansion of the money supply is a tax on the working and middle class. Wages never catch up to the inflation and the actual impact is disguised with CPI manipulations like owner-equivalent rents and technological innovation.

Absolutely. People just have to lose confidence for the con to end... Inflation ultimately creates this. The widening wealth transfer effect. This is what a coming deflationary environment would wake people up to.. the slow eroding of your purchasing power. Mainly, the middle class. The poor are already done..and the wealthy just get richer because deflation makes their dollars stronger. Now, the middle class swing in either direction in a big way.... IMO