The Market 2022-2023-2024

[dscher]

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[Russ Smith]

The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected, but the fears of conflict in Eastern Europe have decreased and that's good news for the market.

I caught the tail end of that while sitting down for cereal this morning and I though holy crap from 7.5 to 9.5 the market is going to crater today. THen I looked about 10am and it was way up and I thought what? Finally discovered it was PPI not CPI and that the Russia story moved the markets.

 

[Folster]

I left my wagon hitched to VIAC, for better or worse.

I'm puzzled by the high inflation number combined with the relatively tepid market response. Quick, someone get me a chart!

Viacom CBS is renaming to Paramount Global and will trade under the ticker PARA which seems logical with the shift to streaming and content. Paramount is just a much better name/brand and evokes something bigger than an 80/90's cable conglomerate or broadcast channel. Re-branding can be a cheap trick, but this seems like a good move despite it not affecting valuation.

 

[elindholm]

Viacom CBS is renaming to Paramount Global and will trade under the ticker PARA which seems logical with the shift to streaming and content. Paramount is just a much better name/brand and evokes something bigger than an 80/90's cable conglomerate or broadcast channel. Re-branding can be a cheap trick, but this seems like a good move despite it not affecting valuation.

I knew the jump up to 100+ last March was too good to be true, but it did seem to be inspired by the announcement of Paramount+. So maybe they are trying to recapture some of that magic -- hopefully not just so they can capitalize again by issuing more stock and further diluting shareholder value.

 

[elindholm]

The market is not impressed with VIAC's rebranding. Good lord. Between that and GT, I'm lucky to have any money left at all.

 

[Folster]

The market is not impressed by VIAC's rebranding. Good lord. Between that and GT, I'm lucky to have any money left at all.

I heard Cramer and a host talking about VIAC being a potential takeover target from a bigger fish. There's bound to be further consolidation at some point in that industry.

 

[elindholm]

I heard Cramer and a host talking about VIAC being a potential takeover target from a bigger fish. There's bound to be further consolidation at some point in that industry.

Wouldn't surprise me, but usually takeovers are done above the stock's current price, aren't they?

 

[Folster]

Wouldn't surprise me, but usually takeovers are done above the stock's current price, aren't they?

Not sure about the valuation specifics of takeovers. Hopefully for your case. Likely candidates would be Apple, Amazon, Netflix, or maybe Warner Discovery but they will have a lot of debt inherited from the spinoff. Not sure who else wants to jump into the fray. I'm not sure the FTC would allow Disney to gobble up another competitor.

 

[Folster]

The market is not impressed with VIAC's rebranding. Good lord. Between that and GT, I'm lucky to have any money left at all.

MMM is down too and it's almost at my target of $150. You'd think it would be more defensive than it's been. I need to take a closer look at their forward guidance.

 

[elindholm]

MMM is down too and it's almost at my target of $150. You'd think it would be more defensive than it's been. I need to take a closer look at their forward guidance.

Yeah, apparently there's some sort of lawsuit looming against them, but I haven't had time to look into it. Unfortunately my work schedule these days has me confined to hoping to ride this all out; I can't nuance it.

Edit: Bad earplugs from MMM have left a bunch of service personnel with hearing loss. Several suits already have been decided against MMM, and more are coming.

 

[dscher]

Could be looking at our next leg down the way the charts are shaping up. Ran into alot of strong seller resistance yesterday.. Vix doesn't seem to be letting up either. Gotta get through some more pain for capitulation, unfortunately.. IMO

 

[Folster]

I believe it was @Russ Smith who was lamenting selling early on Shopify. I'm curious to know where you stand now that it's down 56% from it's high. When did you sell?

 

[dscher]

Good ripper to the upside after the minutes... Usually those first reactions aren't trusted. We'll see moving forward.

 

[Russ Smith]

I believe it was @Russ Smith who was lamenting selling early on Shopify. I'm curious to know where you stand now that's it's down 56% from it's high. When did you sell?

Way before that. I bought at like 40 and sold at 68, something like that. So it went all the way to 1700 after I sold.

 

[Folster]

Way before that. I bought at like 40 and sold at 68, something like that. So it went all the way to 1700 after I sold.

Ouch! Well at least you didn't technically lose money on SHOP which is better than a lot of their investors can say over the last year.

 

[Russ Smith]

Ouch! Well at least you didn't technically lose money on SHOP which is better than a lot of their investors can say over the last year.

Yeah I made money but lost a potential huge windfall by selling.

Live and learn

bought 72 shares 41.37, sold 72 shares 68.31 if I held until 1700 which of course I never would have, 122,400. So about 117K more than I got )-:

 

[Folster]

Yeah I made money but lost a potential huge windfall by selling.

Live and learn

bought 72 shares 41.37, sold 72 shares 68.31 if I held until 1700 which of course I never would have, 122,400. So about 117K more than I got )-:

Yeah, but knowing your tolerance for risk, I doubt you would've held all the way to 1700 to see your position 41X, and even if you did, you likely wouldn't have sold at the peak. But missing that rocket has to sting. It's a lot of luck.

 

[Russ Smith]

Yeah, but knowing your tolerance for risk, I doubt you would've held all the way to 1700 to see your position 41X, and even if you did, you likely wouldn't have sold at the peak. But missing that rocket has to sting. It's a lot of luck.

oh yeah I would never have held even close to that long. The killer for me was believing a report from a short fund that basically said SHOP is a scam, it made the stock tank, then it started to go back up and when it got to 68 I just sold. So I sold for a totally dumb reason believing a report just because he'd been right about another company before.

Live and learn

 

[Folster]

The market is down again with Russia doing the hokey pokey on the border of Ukraine. Apparently invasion is imminent again.

 

[dscher]

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[Devilmaycare]

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Love the Micheal Flatley outro as a bonus.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Well, today is a nice down day. Do you guys think this is going to continue for a bit? My rollover funds just hit my IRA and are sitting in my money market settlement fund. I'm trying to decide if I should buy in on today's dip or wait a few days.

 

[Folster]

Well, today is a nice down day. Do you guys think this is going to continue for a bit? My rollover funds just hit my IRA and are sitting in my money market settlement fund. I'm trying to decide if I should buy in on today's dip or wait a few days.

What was the S&P 500 at the day you liquidated?

 

[Devilmaycare]

It was on February 2nd that the 401k was closed so it looks like the s&p was at 4589.38 according to google. So it's down about 180 since then. We've been mostly on a down trajectory since then.

 

[Folster]

It was on February 2nd that the 401k was closed so it looks like the s&p was at 4589.38 according to google. So it's down about 180 since then. We've been mostly on a down trajectory since then.

If it's long term retirement money, I'd take the W and invest it at a lower price than what I sold or at the very least invest half and DCA the rest in over the next few months. You can hold and hope for a lower price that may or may not come. Studies show that dropping the lump sum in more often than not pays off in the long run over DCA or waiting for a lower entry point.

Another way to look at is to remind yourself that this money was already in the market and was only removed because of a rollover, so just put it back in.

This topic is addressed here.

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