The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

The market sure has been on a wild ride today.

 

[Folster]

MMM is still falling, It dropped below my target of 150 and is now below 145. I've held off on buying as it seems to have no price support until about 137 and then pandemic lows of 117. Not a fan of depending on pricing action, but MMM shows no signs of a floor or heading north anytime soon. I may miss my chance by waiting, but there seems to be a lot of downward pressure on it and the market as a whole with inflation fears and geopolitical turmoil. I put another price alert on it at 140.

 

[dscher]

Hang on to your hats. I could potentially see some circuit breakers hit in the next few days or so...we're getting into that land of volatility right now.

 

[dscher]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[Folster]

More bad news for Cathie with TSLA down 7% today and nearly 40% from its ATH in November which is coincidently when Elon cashed out of a ton of his shares. Looking back, was that not the most obvious sell signal ever? It seems it was mostly ignored by retail investors. We'll look back as that being the top/end of the Covid bull run.

 

[dscher]

More bad news for Cathie with TSLA down 7% today and nearly 40% from its ATH in November which is coincidently when Elon cashed out of a ton of his shares. Looking back, was that not the most obvious sell signal ever? It seems it was mostly ignored by retail investors. We'll look back as that being the top/end of the Covid bull run.

I remember watching and acknowledging those moves would be looked back at as some did in 2000 and 2008 when investors/traders used Buffett exiting positions in the same way..

 

[Folster]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

You should have told me that his tweet was a thread. I just saw it. He posted charts for ARKK's greatest hits and then topped it off with this tweet. Lot's of "I told you so's" from value investors.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[dscher]

You should have told me that his tweet was a thread. I just saw it. He posted charts for ARKK's greatest hits and then topped it off with this tweet.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Oh. Crazy. I saw the pypl tweet but didn't know it was a thread. I'm still getting used to Twitter since they forced me to log in just to follow.

 

[Folster]

So much for my international exposure...

 

[dscher]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[BigRedRage]

More bad news for Cathie with TSLA down 7% today and nearly 40% from its ATH in November which is coincidently when Elon cashed out of a ton of his shares. Looking back, was that not the most obvious sell signal ever? It seems it was mostly ignored by retail investors. We'll look back as that being the top/end of the Covid bull run.

Considering he bought more shares than he sold, I think all will be well with that specific stock. Tech and growth stocks have all been bleeding wildly lately. Time will tell.

 

[Folster]

Considering he bought more shares than he sold, I think all will be well with that specific stock. Tech and growth stocks have all been bleeding wildly lately. Time will tell.

Didn't he sell so he could exercise options at a ridiculously low price?

 

[BigRedRage]

Didn't he sell so he could exercise options at a ridiculously low price?

paying taxes on the options too.

But he now owns more of the company than he did before the sell/buy

 

[Folster]

What an unexpected rally. I never thought the market would close positive today much less significantly positive. What a swing from the open!

 

[elindholm]

Anyone have of a good defense contractor ETF or fund? It might be the way to go for the next little bit.

I have LMT, which has been underwhelming but should be fairly solid long-term.

 

[dscher]

What an unexpected rally. I never thought the market would close positive today much less significantly positive. What a swing from the open!

This is a time when volatility becomes unbounded/unwound... Charts are behaving alot like the volatility during the COVID crash.

 

[Russ Smith]

What an unexpected rally. I never thought the market would close positive today much less significantly positive. What a swing from the open!

Yep this morning my friend texted me my IRA is tanking this sucks. I said to her yes with Russia and Ukraine this is going to be a thing for awhile just stay the course. Just texted me again, WTH all the markets closed green?

Probably won't last but I suspect part of it was unfortunately lots of people probably shorted the market knowing Russia would inevitably attack, made their money, and then closed their positions.

I

 

[dscher]

Yep this morning my friend texted me my IRA is tanking this sucks. I said to her yes with Russia and Ukraine this is going to be a thing for awhile just stay the course. Just texted me again, WTH all the markets closed green?

Probably won't last but I suspect part of it was unfortunately lots of people probably shorted the market knowing Russia would inevitably attack, made their money, and then closed their positions.

I

I would say if anything, these are moves from stop losses being hit. Margin calls, etc... cause the accelerated spike. Seeing gold take a dump while this was happening kinda made me think that was the case. Gold is usually sold during asset flushes to cover for lack of liquidity in accounts.

 

[dscher]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Interesting. Oil and petrodollars. You don't say...

 

[elindholm]

MMM back over 150, but it's still way down from the 170-190 range where it has spent most of the last year hanging out.

 

[Folster]

MMM back over 150, but it's still way down from the 170-190 range where it has spent most of the last year hanging out.

Yeah. I got an alert at 140 and balked. I'm an idiot. Hopefully I get another chance.

What a Friday rally.

It seems the market has been up every Friday this year or at least more often than not. I'm going to take a closer look.

 

[dscher]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Reassuring.

 

[Folster]

I've seen more than a couple pundits ponder today whether the floor was in on the market.

 

[Folster]

I back-tested my 2022 Friday assumption/theory and if you started with 10K on 1/7, you'd have gained a whopping $22 as of today.

 

[dscher]

I back-tested my 2022 Friday assumption/theory and if you started with 10K on 1/7, you'd have gained a whopping $22 as of today.

For awhile there in 2020 and most of 2021 I think that theory would have panned out much better. Fridays were known as Vix crush Friday. Probably alot to do with weekly options expiration from market makers.