The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Devilmaycare]

I think you are discounting the HBO brand and catalog as well as Warner Bros cinema. They are heavy hitters. They are missing a broadcast channel and football so I think a merger with PARA nabbing CBS in the future could be interesting, but NFLX or AAPL could gobble PARA up as well. Or maybe CMCSA spins off NBC/Universal like T did with Warner Media.

Market cap
DIS: $182B
NFLX: $82B
WBD: $37M
PARA: $19B

I would add CMSCA at $188B, but they are mainly the cable giant, not their NBC/Universal subsidiary. The same with DIS and their theme parks, but not to the same extent.

But you may be right. Time will tell.

On slight correction, WBD is $37B, not M. They would be bought up in a second at $37M since that's pocket change to DIS, APPL, and GOOG.

I think we're going to see some consolidation too. I had always thought we'd end up with D+, Netflix, HBO, and Prime as the main streaming services with Apple doing their own thing. Probably a good chance it'll still end up that way but Netflix is a lot more shaky these days. D+ is also hemorrhaging money but I have trouble seeing DIS abandoning it. They need to right the ship though with their big franchises on it.

 

[Folster]

On slight correction, WBD is $37B, not M. They would be bought up in a second at $37M since that's pocket change to DIS, APPL, and GOOG.

Haha. Thanks. Fixed it. I've been posting too much about NBA contracts. My mind is stuck in millions.

 

[BigRedRage]

I can't remember when it was, maybe 15 or so years ago, but there was a time that everyone was expecting a 0.50% increase, and the Fed went 0.75% instead, and it was called a "masterstroke." And, uh, I think things turned out okay, but since I can't remember any details, maybe they didn't.

psh. They obv havent seen a masterstroke before.

 

[BigRedRage]

prime streaming service is so trash...the only reason it exists is prime memberships for shipping.

I agree about NFLX being the best interface and HBO being a juggernaut.

It is a shame paramount prefers to have their own service vs licensing out their own content as I am not adding another service.

 

[Russ Smith]

Good thing it's Friday it fell hard going into the close if we didn't have a weekend could have been ugly tomorrow too. Not that it might not be on Monday.

I haven't seen a call for 1 point yet but definitely seeing calls for .75.

 

[dscher]

I say... I say... Don't worry about the fed and rate hikes. The markets has baked this stuff in... from the looks of what I do for a living. They know the corner and that the fed is stuck in it. Worry about capital preservation in these environments. JMHO. Also, don't listen to Tom Lee. Lol.

 

[elindholm]

I originally invested in GOOG a few years ago with it was at a slight discount to GOOGL and I did not care about the voting rights. I recently bought another share of GOOG even though it is now at a slight premium as I am willing to pay a couple dollars more over GOOGL because it would drive me crazy having both tickers in my portfolio.

I hadn't noticed that GOOG now trades at a premium relative to GOOGL -- that's weird. I guess it has to do with buybacks, but it still seems like a phenomenon due to correct itself. I didn't put a lot of thought in deciding which one to get, but I figured that the demand for GOOGL would always be a little more durable.

 

[dscher]

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[Folster]

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[AsUpRoDiGy]

Bear market...here we come.

 

[dscher]

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[Folster]

I'm going to do some buying today. I'll probably drop $500 in our Roths.

 

[JohnnyCakes]

crypto getting crushed today

 

[dscher]

I'm going to do some buying today. I'll probably drop $500 in our Roths.

Don't want to wait till peak panic? If we see the VIX on closings stay beyond 35 a ton of algorithms IMO are programmed to dynamically hedge and create a potential vol feedback loop. Money hasn't even moved into risk off yet.

 

[Folster]

Don't want to wait till peak panic? If we see the VIX on closings stay beyond 35 a ton of algorithms IMO are programmed to dynamically hedge and create a potential vol feedback loop. Money hasn't even moved into risk off yet.

I don't pretend to know where the bottom will be, It may not be the bottom, but it's a hell of a lot closer than it was 6 months ago when people had no qualms about buying.

 

[BigRedRage]

yuck

 

[dscher]

I don't pretend to know where the bottom will be, It may not be the bottom, but it's a hell of a lot closer than it was 6 months ago when people had no qualms about buying.

True dat.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I don't pretend to know where the bottom will be, It may not be the bottom, but it's a hell of a lot closer than it was 6 months ago when people had no qualms about buying.

The chart for the last 10 days is NUTS.

Stayed out of tsla and feel ok about it so far. My cap d accounts are getting crushed this year. down 18% so far. Based on my history with it...... It will come back.

 

[elindholm]

KO was my last holdout today -- it just recently went from green to red. But both it and DPZ are right on the edge, so maybe I'll get a couple of moral victories.

 

[elindholm]

Stayed out of tsla and feel ok about it so far. My cap d accounts are getting crushed this year. down 18% so far.

-18% isn't bad at all, given the way this year has been. Overall, I was -14.3% coming into today, but by this evening I'll probably looking at something very close to -18%.

 

[Folster]

I see Disney is down below my target. I need to regroup tonight and see if anything in my bullpen looks appealing. There are bound to be a few babies thrown out with the bath water. I have approximately a 5% cash position remaining, but I also have a gold position I can sell off if things get really appetizing.

 

[elindholm]

I see Disney is down below my target. I need to regroup tonight and see if anything in my bullpen looks appealing. There are bound to be a few babies thrown out with the bath water. I have approximately a 5% cash position remaining, but I also have a gold position I can sell off if things get really appetizing.

No way am I selling gold right now. I bought some a month ago and it's pretty much the only thing I've done right. (Well, that and DPZ, heh.)

 

[Folster]

No way am I selling gold right now. I bought some a month ago and it's pretty much the only thing I've done right. (Well, that and DPZ, heh.)

Yeah. not right now, but it's in my back pocket if things really nose-dive and some real choice opportunities present themselves. Gold has worked well as a store of value during this bear market, but it has been a little underwhelming during this time of unprecedented inflation.

 

[dscher]

My deflation gauge just re exploded to the upside Friday and today... Dollar vs TIPS.

This could be a pan asset flush environment until peak fear is reached.

 

[dscher]

Yeah. not right now, but it's in my back pocket if things really nose-dive and some real choice opportunities present themselves. Gold has worked well as a store of value during this bear market, but it has been a little underwhelming during this time of unprecedented inflation.

Gold might lose a little luster and shine for it's hedging moving forward. It will be the best of a bunch of commodities more than likely because it's less tied to economically sensitive sectors, like silver... but, I have zero idea where this metal could fall to. GDX got crushed today on a big reversal from Friday and is usually a sign of liquidity/forced selling. Margin calls are picking up steam. IMO.