The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

They'll get blown out eventually. Right now it's just noise to me. It's a bit annoying, but it won't last through a tough downturn and high unemployment. It just lets me know there's still a lot of slop in the market from the speculative bubble that still hasn't been snuffed out yet.

As @dscher said, it's best to ignore it. But I get a chuckle and a head shake from it at times.

 

[dscher]

Now more people think they know more things and they are playing too.

Ftfy.

They'll get blown out eventually. Right now it's just noise to me. It's a bit annoying, but it won't last through a tough downturn and high unemployment. It just lets me know there's still a lot of slop in the market from the speculative bubble that still hasn't been snuffed out yet.

As @dscher said, it's best to ignore it. But I get a chuckle and a head shake from it at times.

BTC hodlers are evidence enough. When a digital coin that has zero widespread global demand, like the dollar does, across the globe hasn't been flushed out yet.. it's evidence enough the weak hands have no capitulated yet.

 

[BigRedRage]

Ftfy.

There are many, many bag holders but IMO, the retail trader is more informed than ever, which cant really havea lot of dispute and that is part of what is leading to it. There is a huge amount of lemmings behind them just buying whatever is hot, 100%, but retail traders are still more informed than ever.

All of these massive shorts are proof positive of it. I played the meme games a little bit and I came out a non bag holder, so, yeah.

the ONLY thing I ever bag held on through meme stocks is Dogecoin and the bag I'm holding is all house money after cashing out and buying back in later.

GME, AMC and DOGE all did me well. Since then though, I don't really play with those things anymore.

 

[Folster]

Ftfy.


BTC hodlers are evidence enough. When a digital coin that has zero widespread global demand, like the dollar does, across the globe hasn't been flushed out yet.. it's evidence enough the weak hands have no capitulated yet.

Another factor is the cult-like environment and mantra that the prime movers have been able to establish. It's very similar to the multi-level marketing industry and the manipulation they exert on their believers.

 

[dscher]

Another factor is the cult-like environment and mantra that the prime movers have been able to establish. It's very similar to the multi-level marketing industry and the manipulation they exert on their believers.

Tulip mania. We're on the the downslope.

 

[Yuma]

I bought some crypto, but not enough to cash out. It was small enough to let it ride even if I lose it all.

 

[BigRedRage]

I wish I was a bear sometimes. I have no interest in betting against companies but being a bull is boring right now.

 

[dscher]

I wish I was a bear sometimes. I have no interest in betting against companies but being a bull is boring right now.

IMO..The real fun can come when you aren't bearish or bullish. Just doing your best to stay on the right side of the market. Whether that's staying out on downside to even going short if so inclined.. Just like Buffett, he probably has fun unloading a bit at tops and loading up at what he believes are bottoms. Environments like these are tough for even the best of the best out there though.. so having fun right now is a tough task for everyone involved. Volatility will do that. Lots of whiplash from the speed of the moves. Money can be made fast. Money can be lost fast.

 

[BigRedRage]

IMO..The real fun can come when you aren't bearish or bullish. Just doing your best to stay on the right side of the market. Whether that's staying out on downside to even going short if so inclined.. Just like Buffett, he probably has fun unloading a bit at tops and loading up at what he believes are bottoms. Environments like these are tough for even the best of the best out there though.. so having fun right now is a tough task for everyone involved. Volatility will do that. Lots of whiplash from the speed of the moves. Money can be made fast. Money can be lost fast.

Timing is one thing, but buying puts isn't in my nature

 

[dscher]

Timing is one thing, but buying puts isn't in my nature

You can always add exposure with inverse index ETFs. Proshares does some. I wouldn't have any issue adding a 1X short. It's not going to cause as much decay as the 2X and 3X if you hold and you can buy a little or a lot to potentially try and hedge a portfolio with those who have long term bullish outlooks and positions. It could offset some downside risk. Then again... They aren't for everyone, and it's important for everyone to do their research about hedging/shorting.

 

[dscher]

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Yipes.

 

[BigRedRage]

Not a surprise considering this and the emergence of tiktok

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[Devilmaycare]

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Yipes.

I want to see where the layoffs are coming from. Most of these companies have a lot of dead weight in certain areas.

 

[dscher]

I want to see where the layoffs are coming from. Most of these companies have a lot of dead weight in certain areas.

Alot of dead weight at the Fed as well..

 

[Devilmaycare]

Alot of dead weight at the Fed as well..

Not going to debate that one.

For companies like snap I like to see where the cuts are. If they're slashing engineering then they're in trouble. If it's just cutting back on support personal then it might just be recession prep.

 

[Folster]

I want to see where the layoffs are coming from. Most of these companies have a lot of dead weight in certain areas.

My firm is hiring ferociously right now, but also hedging their bets with some supplementation from contractors. So that gives me some idea of what they are forecasting long term. We just can't get enough people to answer the phone. Pay is pretty good too for those just starting out.

 

[Devilmaycare]

My firm is hiring ferociously right now, but also hedging their bets with some supplementation from contractors. So that gives me some idea of what they are forecasting long term. We just can't get enough people to answer the phone. Pay is pretty good too for those just starting out.

Mine is in a sort of hiring freeze. We had to pivot and operating more like a seed round startup now than a series c one. With that we're filling a couple positions that have regulatory need (we're in fintech) but that's it since we have the engineering team built.

What I'm seeing in tech with companies similar to SNAP is that a lot have done layoffs over the last 6 months but they're generally cutting the extra staffing that they brought on in stuff like support, social media marketing, etc. and not touching engineering. We're expensive to replace relative to other departments. So if I see engineers get laid off it's a different signal to me than if it's other parts of the company.

FYI, engineering demand is still super high. I'm still getting 2-3 recruiter emails a day for open positions. There's 2 positions right now that I got an initial email from the CTO and then have gotten 2 followups each with "reaching out again to see if you had a change to take a look" since I hadn't responded to them.

 

[juza76]

Do u know when Powell stop his short position in the market?

 

[Yuma]

Mine has starting pay at $20/HOUR and is hiring a lot. In just a few months I went from knowing everyone in the company, to having more people I don't know now working there. Probably now 75% I don't know to just 25% I do know.

 

[BigRedRage]

Mine has starting pay at $20/HOUR and is hiring a lot. In just a few months I went from knowing everyone in the company, to having more people I don't know now working there. Probably now 75% I don't know to just 25% I do know.

You still at freedom?

 

[Yuma]

You still at freedom?

I am at Cruise, which is a subsidiary of GM, and we are training autonomous cars to drive by themselves.

 

[Folster]

Another good take from Josh, particularly toward the end when talking about the debt to GDP ratio limiting how high rates can go and for how long.

The Fed needs to get inflation squashed and an induced recession sounds better than what would happen if inflation really got out of control and a Volker style rate hike was needed. To put it plainly, the government couldn't afford to pay those types of rates.

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[dscher]

I'll just bring in my good ole Hegelian dialectic... Problem, reaction, solution. Seems applicable right about now when it comes to the Fed and government.

Create the problem... Problem creates outrage/instability... Fix the problem.

Rinse and repeat.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I know a couple of you were in NVDA so watch out. They're down 6% in AH due to this news. I posted this in the P&R twitter thread too because I think this might be a sign of forthcoming war. Please keep war/political discussion over there and keep it to discussion on the stock and it's performance here.

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[Yuma]

I think personally most of the problems we are having with inflation are supply chain and Russia linked. It's a good 4-5 years down the road, but a LOT of manufacturing is returning to the USA right now, so that helps the supply chain eventually. The chip makers, fiber optic producers, etc. are all building plants here. Many will be in PHX! Battery plants for electric cars are moving plants here. Electric car plants are being built, etc. The Russia thing is directly tied to gas prices, which affect shipping prices, etc. If we bite the bullet and let Russia supply oil out of country, then oil gets cheaper, our guys quit sending oil out of the USA, and that solves the rest of the inflation problem. I just can't see Biden, or any Democrat, not trying to keep Russian oil from being sold as long as they keep up the war in Ukraine. Somehow Europe is going to have to break ranks with us, or China, to get that Russian oil flowing again, so our gas prices go back to normal. Barring that happening, I don't see gas prices under $4 a gallon any time soon.